London Welsh in the Pro12 ? The subject just will not go away.

First topic message reminder :

London Welsh chairman Bleddyn Phillips says the club would be open to quitting the English game to join the Pro12. I thought this was now put to bed, but now the head honcho at London Welsh is telling people he would like to see it happen, do you agree with what he has to say ? Especially about the travelling to London rather than further afield, an obvious dig at the Italians, he also says "There would be a degree of support behind the possibility." I don't think there would be much of a chance of LW joining the Pro12, I just think he is trying to cause a stir because of this ring fenced Aviva idea, I would rather see a North Wales region in the Pro12 before London Welsh. Here take a read:-

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/rugby-union/33347545

Chunky Norwich wrote:

I didn't think BT sport would b paying the prices it is for things like the Champions League (£900m is it?) but they are.

The Champions League has only the top teams in Europe in it (who all have huge numbers of fans). The Swanseas & Cardiffs of the football world don't get to play in it. A B&I League just isn't the same thing.

Sin é wrote:

Chunky Norwich wrote:

I didn't think BT sport would b paying the prices it is for things like the Champions League (£900m is it?) but they are.

The Champions League has only the top teams in Europe in it (who all have huge numbers of fans). The Swanseas & Cardiffs of the football world don't get to play in it. A B&I League just isn't the same thing.

So the fact that BT are spending massively on all manner of sport including rugby union has absolutely no bearing?

Chunky, you say that all Pro teams would be split to 2(?) conferences but still keep local rivalries. What precisely would that look like?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Chunky, you say that all Pro teams would be split to 2(?) conferences but still keep local rivalries. What precisely would that look like?

https://www.606v2.com/t57753-a-british-irish-league

All there. It's suprising how many posters are willing to engage in debate, but don't seem to have taken my musings on board.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Chunky Norwich wrote:

I didn't think BT sport would b paying the prices it is for things like the Champions League (£900m is it?) but they are.

The Champions League has only the top teams in Europe in it (who all have huge numbers of fans). The Swanseas & Cardiffs of the football world don't get to play in it. A B&I League just isn't the same thing.

So the fact that BT are spending massively on all manner of sport including rugby union has absolutely no bearing?

Yes Chunky - the key phrase being "at the moment", BT have massively overspent to acquire the rights to rugby and football and must be taking a tremendous hit on their profits to do so, in the case of the Champions League football this might be worth the gamble - if one or more of the English teams get to the semi final or final then they might get some viewers, but if the English clubs drop out at the group stage then they've got a very big white elephant on their hands.

Rugby however is a very different sport with a very different audience demographic, especially once you split out the large numbers who watch the six nations but don't watch or attend club games. The current deal has proved financially very lucrative for the English (albeit at the cost of antagonising their neighbours - although I sure they don't lose a lot of sleep over that) but in terms of audience it's a finite one, BT think they are collaring the people who drink champagne from the tailgate of a Range Rover in the Twickenham car park, when the actual club rugby TV audience is much more the pint of bitter and a pie type of people.

Sooner or later BT Sport are going to have to come into the real world and when the parent company eventually decides that it's going to have to be a standalone business rather than a loss leader and when that happens they are not going to cut payments to football to pay rugby.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Chunky, you say that all Pro teams would be split to 2(?) conferences but still keep local rivalries. What precisely would that look like?

https://www.606v2.com/t57753-a-british-irish-league

All there. It's suprising how many posters are willing to engage in debate, but don't seem to have taken my musings on board.

So you wouldn't even have all the pro teams then?

Irish Londoner wrote:

Yes Chunky - the key phrase being "at the moment", BT have massively overspent to acquire the rights to rugby and football and must be taking a tremendous hit on their profits to do so, in the case of the Champions League football this might be worth the gamble - if one or more of the English teams get to the semi final or final then they might get some viewers, but if the English clubs drop out at the group stage then they've got a very big white elephant on their hands.

Rugby however is a very different sport with a very different audience demographic, especially once you split out the large numbers who watch the six nations but don't watch or attend club games. The current deal has proved financially very lucrative for the English (albeit at the cost of antagonising their neighbours - although I sure they don't lose a lot of sleep over that) but in terms of audience it's a finite one, BT think they are collaring the people who drink champagne from the tailgate of a Range Rover in the Twickenham car park, when the actual club rugby TV audience is much more the pint of bitter and a pie type of people.

Sooner or later BT Sport are going to have to come into the real world and when the parent company eventually decides that it's going to have to be a standalone business rather than a loss leader and when that happens they are not going to cut payments to football to pay rugby.

One of us will be right, and one of us will be wrong.

No 7&1/2 wrote:

Chunky Norwich wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Chunky, you say that all Pro teams would be split to 2(?) conferences but still keep local rivalries. What precisely would that look like?

https://www.606v2.com/t57753-a-british-irish-league

All there. It's suprising how many posters are willing to engage in debate, but don't seem to have taken my musings on board.

So you wouldn't even have all the pro teams then?

Why's that? It was done in February, so London Welsh obviously are replaced making it the 14 PRL ringfenced teams.

Not great having only 1 game against others outside your groups either. Think the big let down is that there's already something better in the Pro 12 and Prem. Can't see more money coming into something that seems very bitty. If there was ever a B&I league then the much more realistic way is the cream in a league. Can't see the top clubs being satisfied to carry teams than have contributed in the failure of 2 leagues (albeit that hasn't and probably won't happen).

LondonTiger wrote:Should there be a push from PRL to create a B&i league (or in cahoots with France and/or SA for a broader league) you can be sure that they will approach the Welsh first, followed by the Scots to get them to jump ship before leaving Ireland isolated and more acquiescent.

Surely the Welsh and Scots are not so dim? Why on earth would they negotiate individually and weaken their bargaining position?

Those negotiations are well down the road anyway. This fantasy will remain a fantasy until someone actually invests in it. They need to work out the details of how it is administered and shared, by talking to all the clubs and Unions. They need to work out the impact on sponsors of other competitions and revenue thus generated. They need to know how games will be marketed and impacts on gate takings. They need to have a plan for how clubs need to change their fundamental accounting practices e.g. is there a salary cap? What about relegation, number of teams, player restrictions etc. etc.

No one is going to sign up to hot air, such is the fantasy of a B&I league. Everyone will need to know what impact it will have, as indeed will the moneybags investor. Sky know exactly how much money they can generate from subscriptions and that is overwhelmingly football dominated. As the football demands increase that means less money for everything else. Sky had the AP market - they know exactly how many eyes were watching it and they weren't prepared to match the current BT deal. There is no quadrupling of the current B&I rugby market because that is already well serviced. So the only possible incentive to attract more money is whether the B&I league could be sold to markets outside B&I - good luck with that, because even the most bullish salesman wouldn't be doing that on commission.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Chunky Norwich wrote:

I didn't think BT sport would b paying the prices it is for things like the Champions League (£900m is it?) but they are.

The Champions League has only the top teams in Europe in it (who all have huge numbers of fans). The Swanseas & Cardiffs of the football world don't get to play in it. A B&I League just isn't the same thing.

So the fact that BT are spending massively on all manner of sport including rugby union has absolutely no bearing?

Give me some figures then on what they are spending on sport outside of football. (From what I've heard its mostly schedule filler stuff after Football and Rugby).

BT wanted the Heineken Cup, not a B&I League or Cup. They refused to tender for the PRO12, so really, they don't have any interest in the Celtic countries other than enabling them to get their hands on a European Cup. After that, they will want the 6Ns.

Sin é wrote:

Give me some figures then on what they are spending on sport outside of football. (From what I've heard its mostly schedule filler stuff after Football and Rugby).

You're asking alot here. The figures are rarely published, but BT want the Ryder Cup, International T20, The Masters, The Open, UFC, in addition to the Tennis and athletics they have already got. It's incredibly naive to think they wouldn't spend the peanuts they have in their back pocket on a domestic rugby competition. Especially when they already televise the English one for what £40m?

Would they be able to fork out an extra £80m on a rugby competition? They probably make that in a week. It's easily doable.

The question is would they need to?

No 7&1/2 wrote:The question is would they need to?

BT Sport? They'd very much see it as a necessary coup yes. Don't forget they're already doing nice business with PRL, PRW and the SRU.

Tell you something else. What about the effect on access to elite players from their unions? With multiple unions involved there would likely be a lot of upset over different regulations for number of games played, training agreements etc.

In other words I can't see the RFU going for it in the current climate, and I can't see the AP clubs wanting to lose the extra cash they get from the RFU for elite player access (let alone academies etc) unless there was enough money floating about to make them think about breaking away from the RFU.

And yes I know the Pro12 Unions have to deal with these aspects now, but the way their deals have evolved are different from the RFU/PRL agreements

lostinwales wrote:Tell you something else. What about the effect on access to elite players from their unions? With multiple unions involved there would likely be a lot of upset over different regulations for number of games played, training agreements etc.

Why would that be any different to what we have now? The pro12 unions all have different agreements.

In other words I can't see the RFU going for it in the current climate, and I can't see the AP clubs wanting to lose the extra cash they get from the RFU for elite player access (let alone academies etc) unless there was enough money floating about to make them think about breaking away from the RFU.

And yes I know the Pro12 Unions have to deal with these aspects now, but the way their deals have evolved are different from the RFU/PRL agreements

Absolutely no change to what it is now. Same amount of games. Same agreements with Unions.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:The question is would they need to?

BT Sport? They'd very much see it as a necessary coup yes. Don't forget they're already doing nice business with PRL, PRW and the SRU.

They already have what they want from rugby. Why would they pay this fortune you feel is available for something they have no interest in.

LondonTiger wrote:

They already have what they want from rugby. Why would they pay this fortune you feel is available for something they have no interest in.

Because PRL will insist on it. And they will have interest in it.

The Great Aukster wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Should there be a push from PRL to create a B&i league (or in cahoots with France and/or SA for a broader league) you can be sure that they will approach the Welsh first, followed by the Scots to get them to jump ship before leaving Ireland isolated and more acquiescent.

Surely the Welsh and Scots are not so dim? Why on earth would they negotiate individually and weaken their bargaining position?

Please note I neither desire nor advocate a B&I league. I just feel that the divide and conquer method worked so well for PRL last time out, that they would do it again. I could then see the same situation panning out - Welsh regions I'm a silly tosspot at the bit to accept the offer, Scots panic they will be left with nothing and Irish come on board at the end as no other option left available.

BUT - I really do not see it happening. If the likes of Craig and Wray are going to push for a cross border league they are far more likely to look east and south rather than north and west.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

They already have what they want from rugby. Why would they pay this fortune you feel is available for something they have no interest in.

Because PRL will insist on it. And they will have interest in it.

Ah I see it is that easy. I shall start the letter now:

Dear Mr MoneyBags,

We would like more money. We are not offering you anything new, nor anything you want over and above what you have. However we know you will pay because we INSIST

LondonTiger wrote:If the likes of Craig and Wray are going to push for a cross border league they are far more likely to look east and south rather than north and west.

Why?

LondonTiger wrote:

Chunky Norwich wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

They already have what they want from rugby. Why would they pay this fortune you feel is available for something they have no interest in.

Because PRL will insist on it. And they will have interest in it.

Ah I see it is that easy. I shall start the letter now:

Dear Mr MoneyBags,

We would like more money. We are not offering you anything new, nor anything you want over and above what you have. However we know you will pay because we INSIST

Huh?

Chunky Norwich wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:The question is would they need to?

BT Sport? They'd very much see it as a necessary coup yes. Don't forget they're already doing nice business with PRL, PRW and the SRU.

But would they need to bid that high. They didn't need to for Prem and probably overspent. Would they double that figure? Unlikey.

No 7&1/2 wrote:

But would they need to bid that high. They didn't need to for Prem and probably overspent. Would they double that figure? Unlikey.

Yes. Because the figure needs to be that high to work. The pressure will come from PRL in their (perhaps joint) business case, and BT won't have to think twice because it is peanuts to them. The carrot on the stick for BT is having all the bread and butter domestic pro rugby in Britain and Ireland on their service. A huge coup.

What did BT want?

They wanted to show they were a genuine player in the Sports market
They wanted the demographics of the typical English club viewer
They wanted matches featuring English clubs against other english clubs, and against the best in Europe.


What did they not want:

Matches between Pro12 teams.




So your new, conferenced league gives them nothing new that they actually want. It would probably sound the death knell for the EPCR so they would lose Anglo/French matches, would retain Anglo/Anglo matches and see a reduction in Anglo/Pro12 matches. But they would gain Pro12/Pro12 matches. you know, the ones they do not want as demonstrated by not bidding for the Pro12 rights.

LondonTiger wrote:What did BT want?

They wanted to show they were a genuine player in the Sports market
They wanted the demographics of the typical English club viewer
They wanted matches featuring English clubs against other english clubs, and against the best in Europe.


What did they not want:

Matches between Pro12 teams.




So your new, conferenced league gives them nothing new that they actually want. It would probably sound the death knell for the EPCR so they would lose Anglo/French matches, would retain Anglo/Anglo matches and see a reduction in Anglo/Pro12 matches. But they would gain Pro12/Pro12 matches. you know, the ones they do not want as demonstrated by not bidding for the Pro12 rights.

I'ts not really as black and white as that is it? Pro12 clubs will never appear on BT Sport because BT Sport didn't bid for a league in which they'd have to share coverage with BBC Wales etc?

Give over.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:

But would they need to bid that high. They didn't need to for Prem and probably overspent. Would they double that figure? Unlikey.

Yes. Because the figure needs to be that high to work. The pressure will come from PRL in their (perhaps joint) business case, and BT won't have to think twice because it is peanuts to them. The carrot on the stick for BT is having all the bread and butter domestic pro rugby in Britain and Ireland on their service. A huge coup.

But why would a company whose main aim is profits spend over the amount of money that they could reasonably assume would get them the rights?

They won't 7.5. They will bid what they believe they need to - so long as it works for them financially.

No 7&1/2 wrote:

But why would a company whose main aim is profits spend over the amount of money that they could reasonably assume would get them the rights?

It's not "over the amount of money that they could reasonably assume would get them the rights". It's what it costs to put the competition in place.

And they will not view such a competition as value for money, therefore will not stump up the cash therefore it is a non-starter.

Phew, we have reached the end.

LondonTiger wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Should there be a push from PRL to create a B&i league (or in cahoots with France and/or SA for a broader league) you can be sure that they will approach the Welsh first, followed by the Scots to get them to jump ship before leaving Ireland isolated and more acquiescent.

Surely the Welsh and Scots are not so dim? Why on earth would they negotiate individually and weaken their bargaining position?

Please note I neither desire nor advocate a B&I league. I just feel that the divide and conquer method worked so well for PRL last time out, that they would do it again. I could then see the same situation panning out - Welsh regions I'm a silly tosspot at the bit to accept the offer, Scots panic they will be left with nothing and Irish come on board at the end as no other option left available.

BUT - I really do not see it happening. If the likes of Craig and Wray are going to push for a cross border league they are far more likely to look east and south rather than north and west.

LT - I know you're not an advocate and my response wasn't intended as a censure. The HEC situation was different because England and France pulled out of that competition and killed it. There was immediate pressure to create a replacement and hence panic by some.
There is no such threat to the status quo this time unless the PRL want to kill the ERC Cup (that they engineered) again. I'd say that is about as likely as Bob Hiller dropping a goal with an old (soaking wet) leather ball from the half way line in this year's RWC final.
The only way for such a deal to be brokered is to have a product worth selling and the Pro12 teams willingly buying into the deal. Since no one seems to be actively trying to set up such a deal, the money obviously isn't there to make it worth their while.

.

No 7&1/2 wrote:This has gone from London Welsh to the Pro 12 to fantasy land.

No, not a PRO12 fantasy land. One poster's opinions does not represent the PRO12

Not only do I not believe a B&I is going to happen, I do not want a B&I to happen.

Fantasy land of this b&i idea not that the pro 12 is aiming for it!

Chunky Norwich wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:

But why would a company whose main aim is profits spend over the amount of money that they could reasonably assume would get them the rights?

It's not "over the amount of money that they could reasonably assume would get them the rights". It's what it costs to put the competition in place.

But you ve said the clubs will die off without it, not a strong position to negotiate. Why would BT spend above what they need to; you appear to be saying because its the only way your idea makes sense. Not sure their head of finance would see it that way.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Fantasy land of this b&i idea not that the pro 12 is aiming for it!

I meant that it wasn't something PRO12 fans fantasise about, but thank you for elaborating

There seems to be a lone voice who can see a B&I league happening. The rest have tried to point out the problems with this happening but the single voice seems to ignore or come up with "fantasy" solutions. If the single voice is correct the rest of us will have to acknowledge his visionary status, until then give up trying to convert the fanatic.

broadlandboy wrote:There seems to be a lone voice who can see a B&I league happening. The rest have tried to point out the problems with this happening but the single voice seems to ignore or come up with "fantasy" solutions. If the single voice is correct the rest of us will have to acknowledge his visionary status, until then give up trying to convert the fanatic.

Hardly a lone voice. A British and Irish league has even been called for in the Irish press, or all places.

Munchkin wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:This has gone from "London Welsh to the Pro 12" to "fantasy land".

No, not a PRO12 fantasy land. One poster's opinions does not represent the PRO12  

Not only do I not believe a B&I is going to happen, I do not want a B&I to happen.

I have edited 7.5s post with some extra puntuation to try and help

LondonTiger wrote:

Munchkin wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:This has gone from "London Welsh to the Pro 12" to "fantasy land".

No, not a PRO12 fantasy land. One poster's opinions does not represent the PRO12  

Not only do I not believe a B&I is going to happen, I do not want a B&I to happen.

I have edited 7.5s post with some extra puntuation to try and help

So witty.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

broadlandboy wrote:There seems to be a lone voice who can see a B&I league happening. The rest have tried to point out the problems with this happening but the single voice seems to ignore or come up with "fantasy" solutions. If the single voice is correct the rest of us will have to acknowledge his visionary status, until then give up trying to convert the fanatic.

Hardly a lone voice. A British and Irish league has even been called for in the Irish press, or all places.

ahem.... one unnamed columnist for one paper. Was it you?

Munchkin wrote:

ahem.... one unnamed columnist for one paper. Was it you?

It's been in the Irish Examiner and the Irish independent now. Both in the last few months.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

Munchkin wrote:

ahem.... one unnamed columnist for one paper. Was it you?

It's been in the Irish Examiner and the Irish independent now. Both in the last few months.

I know it got a brief mention in one of the columns, Chunky. Think it was January, but would need to check again. Not that it really matters in the grand scheme of things. It's a point of view from an anonymous author, and one greatly lacking in substance. I could take up a few inches of column space telling all who care to read that it is vital that Ulster merge with Connacht (Ulnacht has a nice sound to it. A place name that belongs in the Lord of the Rings), for both to survive the threat posed by D2, but those few inches of type would be lacking in authority and credibility, methinks.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

broadlandboy wrote:There seems to be a lone voice who can see a B&I league happening. The rest have tried to point out the problems with this happening but the single voice seems to ignore or come up with "fantasy" solutions. If the single voice is correct the rest of us will have to acknowledge his visionary status, until then give up trying to convert the fanatic.

Hardly a lone voice. A British and Irish league has even been called for in the Irish press, or all places.

Nonetheless, the prospect of involving London-based clubs remains attractive to several Pro12 clubs, particularly in Wales, where the initial expression of interest in London Welsh and London Scottish joining is believed to have originated.

London Welsh Chairman wrote:“I suspect the likes of Munster, Ulster, Glasgow and Edinburgh would rather fly into Heathrow than to certain other areas which currently participate in the Pro12, while Welsh fans would prefer to come to south-west London than perhaps go further afield.

comment below article wrote:Notable that this article suggested that the idea originated in Wales. In recent years, Welsh rugby has shown itself to be an unreliable teammate.

The Welsh have held the Pro12 over a barrel on more than one occasion. It is only two years since they threatened to abandon the Pro12 in favour of some nebulous deal to join English rugby somewhere. Added to their dubious external position on occasion, they have a history of poisonous, protracted infighting between the WRU and the professional regional clubs.

I’d say that there are some long memories amongst Irish, Scottish and indeed Italian rugby administrators who will not be quick to endorse anything they perceive as a Welsh plan.

I really dislike almost everything about Welsh Rugby. They have some outstanding players, but they way their management, media and some of their fans conduct themselves and the arrogance they have makes them very unlikeable. Never thought I’d be wishing to see the English hammer them in September.

http://www.the42.ie/london-clubs-pro12-italy-zebre-treviso-2196813-Jul2015/

Chunky if its such a great idea, why do you not think it happened last year?

Munchkin wrote: It's a point of view from an anonymous author

No it's not. It was Donal Lenihan.

The increased domestic television deals secured in France and England was already on the cards so their respective budgets were always set to increase. The only way the Irish, Welsh and Scottish clubs can close the gap on that front is to replace the Aviva Premiership and Guinness Pro12 with a British and Irish league. The IRFU need to start pushing that agenda immediately to have any hope of remaining competitive in club Europe.

Sin é wrote:
http://www.the42.ie/london-clubs-pro12-italy-zebre-treviso-2196813-Jul2015/

Chunky if its such a great idea, why do you not think it happened last year?

Because nu-Europe needed to happen first.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

Munchkin wrote: It's a point of view from an anonymous author

No it's not. It was Donal Lenihan.

The increased domestic television deals secured in France and England was already on the cards so their respective budgets were always set to increase. The only way the Irish, Welsh and Scottish clubs can close the gap on that front is to replace the Aviva Premiership and Guinness Pro12 with a British and Irish league. The IRFU need to start pushing that agenda immediately to have any hope of remaining competitive in club Europe.

True enough, chunky. It was indeed. I was got out by the comment just below the header:

DONAL LENIHAN: Champions Cup a qualified success
11
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
News last week the appointment of a chairman and a director general have had to be put on hold for the time being offered a timely reminder of the difficulties faced in satisfying the diverse interests of the stakeholders on the board of European Professional Club Rugby (EPCR), says Donal Lenihan."

But then the headline article was printed below that. That was Lenihan:

READ NEXT: As Toulon splash cash, Munster grow surely, if slowly.

Munchkin wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

Munchkin wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:This has gone from "London Welsh to the Pro 12" to "fantasy land".

No, not a PRO12 fantasy land. One poster's opinions does not represent the PRO12  

Not only do I not believe a B&I is going to happen, I do not want a B&I to happen.

I have edited 7.5s post with some extra puntuation to try and help

So witty.

Huh?

You misunderstood his post, so I tried to clarify. At no point did he suggest it was a "pro12 fantasy land".

I apologise for trying to be helpful.

I apologise for using an xbox controller to type. Takes forever.

Munchkin wrote:

Chunky Norwich wrote:

Munchkin wrote: It's a point of view from an anonymous author

No it's not. It was Donal Lenihan.

The increased domestic television deals secured in France and England was already on the cards so their respective budgets were always set to increase. The only way the Irish, Welsh and Scottish clubs can close the gap on that front is to replace the Aviva Premiership and Guinness Pro12 with a British and Irish league. The IRFU need to start pushing that agenda immediately to have any hope of remaining competitive in club Europe.

True enough, chunky. It was indeed.

And another from Brendan Fanning for good measure. So no, I'm not a "lone voice".

The way the game is stacked now it favours the financial heavyweights in England and France leaving the cash-strapped Celts struggling to keep up. The lifeline for us of course is the prospect of more Six Nations TV cash, plus yet another change of competition, which is inevitable: the replacing of the Pro12 with a two-conference British and Irish League. Europe will continue along current lines but for 24 weeks of the season we will have a tournament that has BT and Sky, and perhaps others, salivating: lots of games to fill all that air time and a model that covers all the bases.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/six-nations/great-care-will-be-needed-to-save-europes-cash-cow-30953726.html