England v Wales, 26 September

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ENGLAND v WALES
26 September 2015
KO: 20:00
Twickenham, London

Live on [tbc]

Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Touch judges: Jaco Peyper (South Africa) & Marius Mitrea (Italy)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

A. Head to Head

126 Played 126
58 Won 56
12 Drawn 12
56 Lost 58
1,596 Points 1,456

B. Recent Form

6 February 2015
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
16 – 21 to England

9 March 2014
Twickenham Stadium, London
29 – 18 to England

16 March 2013
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
30 – 3 to Wales

25 February 2012
Twickenham Stadium, London
12 – 19 to Wales

13 August 2011
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
19 – 9 to Wales

6 August 2011
Twickenham, London
23 – 19 to England

4 February 2011
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
19 – 26 to England

6 February 2010
Twickenham, London
30 – 17 to England

14 February 2009
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
23 – 15 to Wales

2 February 2008
Twickenham, London
19 – 26 to Wales

C. Teams

ENGLAND

[tbc]

WALES

[tbc]

I'm not confident at all LD. Planning what to have in the house to numb the possible pain.

Depends how your team plays. Bath plays with Eastmond at 12 right.

Matched up to him, his skills are pretty limited. However Eastmond is not a test level 12 and test rugby in strategy to domestic club rugby.

At test level Burgess is far more suited.

Bath also have Devoto who could take that 12 spot with Eastmond back to League.

GavinDragon wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

GavinDragon wrote:IMO the outcome of the battle between Jenkins and cole will decode the match. But then as a front row forward I would say that

Well I would say the replacement front rows will be as important if not more & that is definitely advantage England.

Is Mako on the bench? Lee is a far better scrummager. However, Keiron Brookes, I rate highly. If Cole gets the better of Jenkins and then Brookes comes on I will be very worried!

Lee is probably a technically better scrummager than Mako when fully fit. However, he's also probably a technically better scrummager than Francis when fully fit. The fact that he's on the bench suggests to me that he's not fully fit.

My guess is that we will have a fairly even first couple of scrums but Marler's fitness will begin to tell on Francis over time, and the ref is Garces who I suspect will be watching Jenkins closely. I'd expect the England replacements to give the Welsh replacements a hard time, though.

Sorry guys, I did not mean ALL our English members.

I am just bricking it.

No 7&1/2 wrote:I'm not confident at all LD. Planning what to have in the house to numb the possible pain.

Come on 7.5... where is the Tom Youngs love in? Although I know you're a big Ford supporter right.

Poorfour wrote:

GavinDragon wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

GavinDragon wrote:IMO the outcome of the battle between Jenkins and cole will decode the match. But then as a front row forward I would say that

Well I would say the replacement front rows will be as important if not more & that is definitely advantage England.

Is Mako on the bench? Lee is a far better scrummager. However, Keiron Brookes, I rate highly. If Cole gets the better of Jenkins and then Brookes comes on I will be very worried!

Lee is probably a technically better scrummager than Mako when fully fit. However, he's also probably a technically better scrummager than Francis when fully fit. The fact that he's on the bench suggests to me that he's not fully fit.

My guess is that we will have a fairly even first couple of scrums but Marler's fitness will begin to tell on Francis over time, and the ref is Garces who I suspect will be watching Jenkins closely. I'd expect the England replacements to give the Welsh replacements a hard time, though.

Agreed. I actually think Lee and Francis will have a half each.

Lorddowlais don't get me wrong I think Wales are a good side and could well win tomorrow but I think England have the edge due to factors such as home advantage and better bench.

There's a lot of Welsh players that I am wary of though. Still remember Scott Williams ripping the ball off Lawes and being instrumental in Wales' victory in 2012 at Twickenham.

People have being talking about Burgess vs Roberts but I am more worried about Barritt vs Williams as Barritt had a poor game vs Fiji.

I think if both teams play to their optimum then England will win but Wales have enough match winners like North,Warburton,AWJ and Faletau obviously.

Also worried about May vs North. Let's say Wales hoist the ball in to the air - North out jumps May, hands him off and waltzes in for a try. That's not far fetched.

fa0019 wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:I'm not confident at all LD. Planning what to have in the house to numb the possible pain.

Come on 7.5... where is the Tom Youngs love in? Although I know you're a big Ford supporter right.

Forgive me for picking you up on your analysis of English players you obviously don't watch much. The 10 12 13 is what worries me. Barritt needs to get back on his game.

For me this game will either be very close, going either way on a penalty or late try, or England will pummel us and win by a large margin. I can't see any other outcomes unfortunately. My butterflies have started early!!!

Thought this was a great read (link below) about what this game means, and how it usually means more to the Welsh. I agree with a lot of it. For me it's not hatred of the English. That's often rolled out as a media stereotype. Sure, there are some who hate the English. But those people tend to hate a lot of groups in society and are better left alone. I don't hate England or the English. It's just something ingrained in my psyche that this is THE one game each year I want to win. Like beating a big brother perhaps. So much shared history, both good and bad. And it doesn't matter if the 'hatred', passion, rivalry, etc. is one sided. It matters not a jot if Wales are not important to England or they don't get up for the game as much as we do. Rivalry is not necessarily a two way thing. It just matters to us. And matters a lot. But I can't explain why.

Good luck to both teams!

Cymru am byth



http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34352073

A couple of quotes I like from the piece:
The east side of the border: Lydney RFC team liaison officer Colin Henderson
"With our proximity to the border, in the old days when Wales was a dry country on Sundays we used to get busloads of them turning up in Lydney. They would run off with our women and then we would run after them and a few fights would ensue. But that's all changed now.

The local banter has always been there. Before the inception of leagues we used to play Welsh clubs on Wednesday nights, and it was always hard but fair. The hospitality was fantastic."

The proud parent: Dave North, father of Wales winger George
"There are two facets to watching George as a parent: there's me, high on adrenaline, and there's his mother Jan, high on fear.

The pure adrenaline kicks in for me at 6am. I don't need a drink. It still feels amazing to me, even now he's 23 and with 51 caps. The joy is still fresh. Every game he runs out you can't believe it's happening."

Dan Hull, chairman, scrum-half & U-10s coach at Burnham on Crouch RC
"This game is huge. Apart from the Aussies, no-one hates us more than Wales. They don't care about anything else than beating England, and that passion is unmatched - especially against England. When you see the Welsh team singing their national anthem, you can guarantee that 30% of them will be crying. I've never seen an English player cry. That's our greatest fear - that they will want to beat us like no-one else."

Got to say North weakest aspect is his ability to take the high ball, he's not terrible in that regards but whenever Ive watched him is is as lilely to spill the high ball as take it cleanly. I would imagine England will test the Welsh back 3 with some up and unders.

wrfc1980 wrote:I would imagine England will test the Welsh back 3 with some up and unders.

Liam Williams will love that. He likes nothing better than catching the high ball and running it straight back.

If England do that, then they honestly have not done their homework.

Surprised wrfc1980

I thought North would use his height advantage more to outjump the opposition. Thought it would be a Welsh tactic. Also it would be a way of getting the ball to North more - kicking to him as well as passing to him!

Sides have scored tries in relatively recent matches by using that tactic vs England - Ireland - one of their players outjumping Goode in the 6 nations and Nadolo outjumping Watson in the last game.

I don't think England's work under the high ball is that great. It's okay but IMO the best side at up and unders are Ireland.

I am sure both sides will look to pressurise the opposition but for England I would like them to target Amos significantly more than North.

No 7&1/2 wrote:

fa0019 wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:I'm not confident at all LD. Planning what to have in the house to numb the possible pain.

Come on 7.5... where is the Tom Youngs love in? Although I know you're a big Ford supporter right.

Forgive me for picking you up on your analysis of English players you obviously don't watch much. The 10 12 13 is what worries me. Barritt needs to get back on his game.

Obviously you swim against the tide 7.5. Ford would be playing if he was playing well. The simple truth is that he's struggled. Like Youngs continues to.

beshocked wrote:Surprised wrfc1980

I thought North would use his height advantage more to outjump the opposition. Thought it would be a Welsh tactic. Also it would be a way of getting the ball to North more - kicking to him as well as passing to him!

Sides have scored tries in relatively recent matches by using that tactic vs England - Ireland - one of their players outjumping Goode in the 6 nations and Nadolo outjumping Watson in the last game.

I don't think England's work under the high ball is that great. It's okay but IMO the best side at up and unders are Ireland.

I am sure both sides will look to pressurise the opposition but for England I would like them to target Amos significantly more than North.

I don't think North significantly taller than May either, just a lot more bulk.

The testing high balls may well work but will depend as ever on timing and accuracy. Get May arriving at the same time as the ball and it could be fun. And I wouldn't mind test Williams a little early on as though he is good on the counter he could be very rusty, and we have to see how his injury recovery is going.

I've already said I like Farrell as a player so I have no bones about him starting really. The balance of those 3 is what worries me. Ford didn't struggle for me though.

I’m actually feeling increasingly good about this game. I’m usually a total pessimist, but something is just beginning to feel right about it to me. Maybe it’s because a ticket fell into my lap last week. Maybe it’s because I can sense growing nerves and doubt in the English management. Or maybe it’s because just the sun’s shining and I’ve got a four pack of doughnuts on my desk. Whatever the reason, excitement has taken the place of dread – and whatever the result on Saturday, I’m really enjoying the build up!

Fair to say most predict it will be very close, that it will either be down to an individual error or genius play.

Probably 55:45 in England's court.

For me if Tom Youngs keeps his head, England will win... if he has a bit of an off game I think Lancasters house will fall like a pack of cards.

fa0019 wrote:Fair to say most predict it will be very close, that it will either be down to an individual error or genius play.

Probably 55:45 in England's court.

For me if Tom Youngs keeps his head, England will win... if he has a bit of an off game I think Lancasters house will fall like a pack of cards.

I actually don't think England will need to play a perfect game to win. If they do, they'll win comfortably. England have the ability with this selected team to first, contain any Welsh attacks and then to finish strongly with a better bench.

I really think the bench could have a MASSIVE influence on this game.

lostinwales according to his wiki page North is significantly taller....

no 7 & 1/2 yes we know. You never think Ford struggles. To be fair to Ford, it didn't help that B.Youngs had a poor game.

fa0019 personally I think it's more like 60-40. England at home in a RWC, unbeaten at home in last 8 games, won last 2 encounters vs Wales,more experience than Wales in certain positions (something you wouldn't have expected before the tournament but rookies at 3,9 and 11 for Wales could help England)

If this was at Millennium Stadium then I would say Wales would have the edge but this is at Twickenham.

Stop it beshocked. The general feeling around is he didn't deserve to be dropped, including yourself?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Stop it beshocked. The general feeling around is he didn't deserve to be dropped, including yourself?

I dont think anyone can say it was a terrible decision on form and tactical grounds.

He retained the spot he got through Farrells injury based on good form, and lost it on bad form. It maybe came as a surprise and can be seen as a brave decision to go against the convention of blindly sticking by players but it is what the internet keeps demanding.
Whilst its apparently a negative England gameplan it was an agressive an daring move by Lancaster to make that change, and also to back his man burgess. Its two deciosions that could come back to bite him as easy targets for blame if things dont work out. If they do he will no doubt be hailed as the next messiah...right up till the next shoddy performance anyway.

It doenst half look like a Martin Johnson back line mind.

Sorry Beshocked you are right - 4cm and 20kg difference.

As said above I think its either going to be a comfortable England win or a tight low scoring nervy affair. Wales are good defenders but they also have to find ways of scoring points against England and that has been a struggle of late. One fortunate try last year and none the year before, just a lot of kicks from a player who isn't here this time.

England have to find a way to breakdown the Welsh defense like they did so successfully in the 6N, only a lot of that was down to two players, one of whom is injured and the other is on the bench.

I do see a lot of Welsh talking up their team and England talking theirs down on here. Time will tell

The way England and SL have approached this game reminds me of 2013 when we were hammered by Wales 30-3, does anyone remember that?

The team for that fateful day.

FB 15 Alex Goode
RW 14 Chris Ashton
OC 13 Manu Tuilagi
IC 12 Brad Barritt
LW 11 Mike Brown
FH 10 Owen Farrell
SH 9 Ben Youngs
N8 8 Tom Wood
OF 7 Chris Robshaw (c)
BF 6 Tom Croft
RL 5 Geoff Parling
LL 4 Joe Launchbury
TP 3 Dan Cole
HK 2 Tom Youngs
LP 1 Joe Marler


HK 16 Dylan Hartley
PR 17 David Wilson
PR 18 Mako Vunipola
LK 19 Courtney Lawes
FL 20 James Haskell
SH 21 Danny Care
FH 22 Toby Flood
CE 23 Billy Twelvetrees

PlanetRugby.com have predicted England win by three..

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_82600,00.html

lostinwales wrote:I do see a lot of Welsh talking up their team and England talking theirs down on here. Time will tell

Where have you seen that, because I see it the polar opposite.

no 7 & 1/2 I said that Ford was unlucky but I can see why Lancaster would want Farrell instead.

A poor performance from others hasn't seen them dropped so yes Ford can count himself unfortunate but Ford does make mistakes.

I am more worried about other players than Farrell.

Ford should have an opportunity to strut his stuff from the bench though.

beshocked wrote:  lostinwales according to his wiki page North is significantly taller....

Norths actually a pretty poor defender - I'd imagine England will be keen to attack Wales out wide and using the cross field kick - although the selection of Farrell rather than Ford suggests it will be more the latter.

Burgess up the middle to tie in the defenders then isolate the wingers.

I think Wales will edge the scrum and breakdown but not sure where their points are going to come from,if Farrell and Burgess can stop Roberts getting them on the front foot...unless they can target Burgess and get North attacking through the middle.

Leaning back towards England a bit here as they same fairly bullish, whereas Gat's is keeping pretty quiet... hard to pick this one, a lot of mind games going on.

LordDowlais wrote:

lostinwales wrote:I do see a lot of Welsh talking up their team and England talking theirs down on here. Time will tell

Where have you seen that, because I see it the polar opposite.

There are plenty of Welsh talking their team up (or england down) - but also plenty the other way.

Similarly for English re England.

So where have I ever said any player never makes mistakes. You jump on a comment saying Ford didn't struggle which I don't think he did. Pretty poor ball generally but never looked under a great deal of pressure; I'm happy to say that and I think it's pretty fair.

I've also said a few times now it's not Farrell over Ford I'm worried about its the midfield primarily. I think Ford would be a slight improvement to get the ball out but I'd still be worried if it were Ford Burgess Barritt.

rodders wrote:England a bit here as they same fairly bullish

Yeah thats how I see it, I do not know what lostinwales is reading.

lostinwales wrote:Sorry Beshocked you are right - 4cm and 20kg difference.

As said above I think its either going to be a comfortable England win or a tight low scoring nervy affair. Wales are good defenders but they also have to find ways of scoring points against England and that has been a struggle of late. One fortunate try last year and none the year before, just a lot of kicks from a player who isn't here this time.

England have to find a way to breakdown the Welsh defense like they did so successfully in the 6N, only a lot of that was down to two players, one of whom is injured and the other is on the bench.

I do see a lot of Welsh talking up their team and England talking theirs down on here. Time will tell

Fair enough. When I looked on wiki page someone had changed North's height to a few thousand feet!

It's been mentioned in previous posters, might even by you, England kept Wales' monster wingers quiet in the last two games.

If you can keep a monster like North quiet then it takes a significant amount of bite out of the Welsh attack. Same if England can do similar to Roberts.

If England get the big Welsh players backpeddling then they won't have anywhere to go.

This Welsh starting side is smaller than usual with no Davies,no Phillips and no Cuthbert starting.

rodders wrote:Norths actually a pretty poor defender - I'd imagine England will be keen to attack Wales out wide and using the cross field kick - although the selection of Farrell rather than Ford suggests it will be more the latter.

Unfortunately Ford is generally better at the rross kick, witness Watson's try vs Ireland last month. I do expect to see Youngs and Farrel try and put bombs up on north with May chasing - and yes maybe the odd cross field from Farrell on Amos for Watson to chase down.

GeordieFalcon wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:

He was very average for Bath at 12 this season the moment he moved to 6 he was a different proposition altogther. 6 brings out and focuses on his best strengths and he was great being constantly involved at the breakdown. He'll continue there next season and will be pushing for a starting spot I have no doubt. Still think Itoje is going to be battling it out at lock but we have some great options along with Wood and even Haskell though I think he'll drop away post wc.

I agree 7.5

at 6 he can use his carrying and defence to his max and he will learn the lineout. I also agree Itoje will be a lock and Haskell should be gone from the squad post WC.

He wasn't given long enough to settle at 12 by Bath in my opinion, and I think the move to 6 was more prompted by the Bath squad having more need for him there than at 12.

Still, time will tell.

LordDowlais wrote:

rodders wrote:England a bit here as they same fairly bullish

Yeah thats how I see it, I do not know what lostinwales is reading.

Same things I am, but being fairly selective. As I said about half the fans from either side of the dyke are talking their team up.

Unless you look at WalesOnline where when I last looked at their poll 70% had plumped for a Welsh win.

Going by what Ford said when he moved over and comments since it looks planned FES.

It's all building up to be Burgess presenting his secret plan. He ain't no tentative kitten at Union and wondering where to throw and how to fall at all, like the spin was trying to sell in the months leading in. This pre-fight chit chat between teams and players sounds to me like Burgess plans on being explosive and dynamic.

Sentinel Roberts stands in his way and now represents the only Defence of ye olde Rugby Union for the peoples of the World over the new evil menace that is this League cross-over kid called Slammin.

Australia of course will hope that the blood-up aspect of the clash will knock the bejaysus out of both teams

No 7&1/2 wrote:So where have I ever said any player never makes mistakes. You jump on a comment saying Ford didn't struggle which I don't think he did. Pretty poor ball generally but never looked under a  great deal of pressure; I'm happy to say that and I think it's pretty fair.

I've also said a few times now it's not Farrell over Ford I'm worried about its the midfield primarily. I think Ford would be a slight improvement to get the ball out but I'd still be worried if it were Ford Burgess Barritt.

Well I don't think I've ever heard you say Ford didn't play well. Even you have to acknowledge that when Farrell came on England looked a lot better, had more control.

Ford did okay I guess but in the 2nd half England and Ford lost control - it became a bit scrappy.

It was the bench including Farrell who put England in command again.

I like Ford - think he's got great strengths but he's not perfect. From the bench I think he'll lay down a marker and perhaps get his starting spot back.

Perception is a wonderful thing innit!

I actually think scrum dominance will change during the game. Would expect Wales to start out on top but there is no guarantee that will last long with their glass props. And I know we did the Francis weight thing to death yesterday, but the last guy we had starting at that weight, Billy V, was definitely only capable of a short shift when he started. That has changed and hes an 80 minute player these days but that has taken a lot of hard work and time that Francis just hasn't had yet.

Breakdown is as ever anyone's guess, and saying Wales will be on top may well be down to the standard perception of Robshaw 'not being a 7'. There is a well distributed interview with Warburton this week where he goes out of his way to say how effective Robshaw actually is. It is going to be down to how the packs operate as a unit as a much as anything.

Last four 6 nations results

2012 and 2013 Wales wins

2014 and 2015 England wins

When Wales win Brad Barritt plays. Just thought I'd point that out.

I think there are a few differences in struggling, playing well/badly and making mistakes though. I've asked before to GF about what Farrell really did differently when he came on and the answer was he didn't kick the ball away as badly (paraphrasing as I can't remember his exact answer). I think that's mainly as he came on as England started to go forward with fresh subs making gains against a tiring team not able to bring on the same quality. The gaps opened up and Farrell was there to contribute to it and did well. I think if the roles were reversed in that game we would have seen Farrell being limited by the performances around him and Ford taking advantage of the space and better ball.

I don't think Barritt coming off as Farrell went on harmed him either.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Going by what Ford said when he moved over and comments since it looks planned FES.

You mean starting him at 12 and then moving him to 6, then having him play international rugby at 12??

None of this seems or feels planned at all. This is England's biggest group game, and the midfield have never played together, and the inside centre has barely played any rugby at inside centre.

I want both England and Wales to progress from the Group, but there's a shambolic feel to this England team. Did Lancaster really plan on having Parling starting with Lawes, and a centre pairing of Burgess and Barritt?? I know injuries can alter things a bit, but it's more that England appear to be needing to play a completely different style of game just because Joseph is injured.

lostinwales wrote:I do see a lot of Welsh talking up their team and England talking theirs down on here. Time will tell.

Really?

lostinwales wrote:for the first 15 minutes or so before Francis is blown Wales will be on top in the forwards, followed by 40 minutes or so (actually 35 minutes given all subs come on at 50 minutes) it will be more even. Then in the last half hour the England replacements will be marching the Welsh scrum across the pitch.

jimpy wrote:I actually don't think England will need to play a perfect game to win. If they do, they'll win comfortably. England have the ability with this selected team to first, contain any Welsh attacks and then to finish strongly with a better bench.

TightHEAD wrote:Last four 6 nations results

2012 and 2013 Wales wins

2014 and 2015 England wins

When Wales win Brad Barritt plays. Just thought I'd point that out.

You're the life and soul of this party aren't you...

No 7&1/2 wrote:I think there are a few differences in struggling, playing well/badly and making mistakes though. I've asked before to GF about what Farrell really did differently when he came on and the answer was he didn't kick the ball away as badly (paraphrasing as I can't remember his exact answer). I think that's mainly as he came on as England started to go forward with fresh subs making gains against a tiring team not able to bring on the same quality. The gaps opened up and Farrell was there to contribute to it and did well. I think if the roles were reversed in that game we would have seen Farrell being limited by the performances around him and Ford taking advantage of the space and better ball.

I don't think Barritt coming off as Farrell went on harmed him either.

Unless Farrell switches to 12 we know who is going to come on if Barritt goes off and that doesn't make me feel particularly positive

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

lostinwales wrote:I do see a lot of Welsh talking up their team and England talking theirs down on here. Time will tell.

Really?

lostinwales wrote:for the first 15 minutes or so before Francis is blown Wales will be on top in the forwards, followed by 40 minutes or so (actually 35 minutes given all subs come on at 50 minutes) it will be more even. Then in the last half hour the England replacements will be marching the Welsh scrum across the pitch.

I didn't say I was talking England down did I. I have concerns but I think Wales should have a lot more

Jimpy wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:Last four 6 nations results

2012 and 2013 Wales wins

2014 and 2015 England wins

When Wales win Brad Barritt plays. Just thought I'd point that out.

You're the life and soul of this party aren't you...

Stats don't lie.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Going by what Ford said when he moved over and comments since it looks planned FES.

You mean starting him at 12 and then moving him to 6, then having him play international rugby at 12??

None of this seems or feels planned at all. This is England's biggest group game, and the midfield have never played together, and the inside centre has barely played any rugby at inside centre.

I want both England and Wales to progress from the Group, but there's a shambolic feel to this England team. Did Lancaster really plan on having Parling starting with Lawes, and a centre pairing of Burgess and Barritt?? I know injuries can alter things a bit, but it's more that England appear to be needing to play a completely different style of game just because Joseph is injured.

Planned by Ford Lancaster never got the say as the RFU didn't put any money in. They didn't have to go for a completely different style as Slade would ahve been a nearer swap. Would have been interesting to see whether the tactics would ahve been changed had Joseph been fit though.

Talking of stupid articles the BBC have got in on the act

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34354637

'Rugby World Cup 2015: Wales aim to smash Sam Burgess'

Actual quote (still silly but actually quite different)

"We won't be trying to single out Sam Burgess at all," said Gatland.
"We will be going out there to smash him like everyone else," he added.