France v Ireland, 11 October

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FRANCE v IRELAND
11 October 2015
KO: 16:45
The Millennium Stadium, Cardiff

Live on [tbc]

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Touch judges:Wayne Barnes (England) & Leighton Hodges (Wales)
Television match official: Graham Hughes (England)

A. Head to Head

93 Played 93
55 Won 31
7 Drawn 7
31 Lost 55
1508 Points 1084

B. Recent Form

14 February 2015
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
18 – 11 to Ireland

15 March 2014
Stade de France, Saint Denis
20 – 22 to Ireland

9 March 2013
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
13 – 13 Draw

4 March 2012
Stade de France, Saint Denis
17 – 17 Draw

20 August 2011
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
22 – 26 to France

13 August 2011
Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux
19 – 12 to France

C. Teams

FRANCE

15 Scott Spedding, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Brice Dulin, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Sebastien Tillous-Borde; 1 Eddy Ben Arous, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 3 Rabah Slimani, 4 Pascal Pape, 5 Yoann Maestri, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (c), 7 Damien Chouly, 8 Louis Picamoles.

Replacements: 16 Benjamin Kayser, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Nicolas Mas, 19 Alexandre Flanquart, 20 Bernard Le Roux, 21 Morgan Parra, 22 Remi Tales, 23 Alexandre Dumoulin.

IRELAND

15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Robbie Henshaw , 11 Dave Kearney,  10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray; 1 Cian Healy, 2 Rory Best, 3 Mike Ross, 4 Devin Toner, 5 Paul O'Connell (c), 6 Peter O'Mahony, 7 Sean O'Brien, 8 Jamie Heaslip.

Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Nathan White, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Luke Fitzgerald.

I heard that too. Aparently no Zebo, Henderson or Earls. Ireland are targeting the French lineout.

ME-109 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

ME-109 wrote:

westisbest wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Look, if we can beat Germany, we can beat France.  Sexton just has to pass it to Long.

Ha ha. Hopefully we can beat France and ROI beat Poland, would be a great day.

Who the f..k is ROI? Last time I checked it was Ireland I lived in....

Well two of them were playing tonight.  I think we must be greedy.

Nope only one. Ireland and Morphy Richards...

Well great result(s) for Ireland tonight.

Now for Ireland to beat France.

Will Zebo and Earls both be left out?

Interesting to see.

GunsGerms wrote:I heard that too. Aparently no Zebo, Henderson or Earls. Ireland are targeting the French lineout.

Zebo and Earls out of the 23....Hendo in the subs......

If this is the case Joe has certainly set his stall out....

Bowe was always going to start and Kearney is one of our most on form players. Its harsh on Earls and Zebo as both were playing well particularly Earls. However, Schmidt has a specific game plan and these are the guys he thinks are going to deliver it. Im ok with that.

Winning is all that matters...so if Joe thinks thats the best team to put out. Im fine with it....




On the other hand....if Ireland lose...

... if Ireland lose, you'll blame POC being on the team instead of Henderson?

Happy enough with Kearney and Bowe starting. Schmidt rotated a fair bit with Leinster and big games were no exception. Horses for courses is his style. Cat's halfway out of the bag though in relation to game plan.

Well our best attacker and ball distributor wont be in the squad. While one of our best ball carriers will be on the bench. Given the way Rugby and GAA Football are being played at the moment it appears as if Rugby is going the traditional GAA route with kicking the leather off the ball and high fielding. Whereas GAA is all about little passes and putting players into space.....

GunsGerms wrote:I heard that too. Aparently no Zebo, Henderson or Earls. Ireland are targeting the French lineout.

Makes sense.
POM at the front of the lineout and Toner in the middle it will put the French thrower under huge pressure. Not to mention POC. They do tend to have good hookers but their second rows are not the most athletic.

Lets hope we have about 40 lineouts then...

We didn't attack or distribute much in the Italy game.

The tactics (or opposition quality) decides the attack profile... not the individuals on display.

I think if this is the genuine side and bench, it's a hard edged, phase play, attritional side with set-piece on its mind too - and probably has been all along Schmidt's preferred set-up in an ideal world against Tier 1 opposition.  
Injuries might change it but I think it's the side designed for our final assault on this competition, after the phoney war of the beginning.

I'm sure we'll all have our personal reservations about at least one of the players... but, well let's see what we do.

Well besides the 40 lineouts, lets hope that the French are not disciplined. Because that is clearly the strategy. Kick the ball and hope they give away penalties.

Assuming that team is correct.

I disagree with selecting Toner over Hendo although I completely understand why Joe would make that call. You're gaining something and losing something with either option. I just think we need Henderson's attributes more than Toner's.

I'm a bit disappointed Earls isn't starting. He's pretty much a try scoring machine on the wing. I'd understand going with a safer option of Kearney if Earl's finishing prowess was mitigated by being very poor in other area's but is Earls really weak in other parts of his wing play?

Fitzy on the bench because he's shown he can cover center to a decent standard over either Earls (don't like him at center) or Zebo (never played center). I always thought Fitz was really good though so I'm not overly upset over that one.

ME-109 wrote:Team being touted for Sunday...

15. Rob Kearney
14. Tommy Bowe
13. Jared Payne
12. Robbie Henshaw
11. Dave Kearney
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Conor Murray
1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best
3. Mike Ross
4. Devin Toner
5. Paul O’Connell (captain)
6. Peter O’Mahony
7. Sean O’Brien
8. Jamie Heaslip
Replacements:
16. Sean Cronin
17. Jack McGrath
18. Nathan White
19. Iain Henderson
20. Chris Henry
21. Eoin Reddan
22. Ian Madigan
23. Luke Fitzgerald

Urgh. Henderson on the Bench? Fitz ahead of Earls? Two of Ireland's real x-factor players, one benched, one not even in the squad. Also Henry should be start rather than SOB coasting on reputation, who should be a bench option. I see no reason why Henderson shouldn't be starting, he has been pick of the bunch last two games.

If that's the side, Schmidt going with what he knows and hoping for the grind. No surprises.

He'll be hoping they can squeeze the French. A bit negative.

France by 10(ish).

I wouldn't have Earls anywhere near the side, so he's right on one point.

You're right about O'Brien Marshes. He used to be such an X-factor player of raw ability that it made up for the fact that he's not really a 7. Now he's a not really a 7 not playing well anyway. Coaches so often go for the players with the big reputation and past exploits. You can hardly blame them most of the time but O'Brien has shown nothing.

Oh and Bowe is lucky to be starting. But in this case he's showed signs of his old self. But what has O'Brien shown? Nothing really. He gave away a few penalties I think.

Agreed. SOB is overrated (possibly one of the most overrated 7s in world rugby), but he's never going to be dropped. Schmidt loves him.

If Henderson does not start, Earls and Zebo not in the 23 then its clear to me what I thought might happen. Schmidt is setting up a team and a game plan negate the French instead of taking them on. It beggars belief that Henderson (IMO, Irelands best player this RWC) is being put to the bench. Toner may be better in the line out but that does not make him a better option, Henderson makes ground seemingly easily every time he gets the ball. He gets Irelands forwards on the front foot and you need the forwards on the front foot against France.

Personally I wouldn't have had Bowe in the 23, I would have had Dave Kearney at 14, Earls at 11 and Zebo on the bench for cover of 11, 14 and 15.

Should Ireland lose, I will not be happy.

I don't think SOB is overrated by the Irish on here at the minute - he has come in for quite a bit of criticism.

Henderson is not a bad impact sub to bring on to counteract the French as they empty their bench. Toner won't let us down and he is more physical than he looks, he just doesn't have the physicality of Henderson.

I hope we do try and pin back the French into their half and try to force mistakes on their lineout. I think we should have used that tactic more against Italy's lineout. It seems less risky than the aerial bombardment we gave Italy. The French will run it back with interest.
If it's winning rugby, I can put up with the boring tag.

I think Earls is very unlucky to miss out given his strike rate. Although he has been criticized (rightly or wrongly) for his defensive alignment against Italy, there hasn't been an issue with his defence on the wing and he has got the speed for covering tackles.

Now we know why Luke Fitz got his place over Trimble. Good luck to him! (still gutted for Trimble though )

billy wrote:Should Ireland lose, I will not be happy.

Surely, that should be a given! No matter what team they field.

I hope you don't me calling you Shirley!

Hmm... not a bad side, a couple of surprises for me - DK and Fitzgerald.

I see the logic of starting Toner, even if Hendo has been our standout player - he brings a bit more solidity to the tight play and having Henderson on the bench gives a real impact option to come on in the last 1/4 and change the game, which Toner and Ryan don't.

On the wing DK is a bit better defensively than the other options though I thought Earls would get the nod. Could be tactical and a sign that we will kick chase more than run, DK is really good at running through the middle.

The only one I don't agree with is Fitzgerald on the bench ahead of Zebo. Obviously Joe is more concerned with Payne/Henshaw lasting the 80min than Rob K is the only thing I can read into that call.

I was out for a meal last night in Penarth and a group of 7 or 8 French players were sat on the table next to us.  So much is made of nutrition-control etc. in the Welsh camp that is seemed rather strange to just see these guys out for what looked like a regular boys'-night social meal.  I was also (semi)surprised to see them fairly liberally swigging back the wine.  They all seemed very relaxed.

Can I ask gents, do you guys really think this French side need to be negated at all, that Ireland aren't heavy favourites based on an average display v Italy and Frances performances v minnows?

I don't think this France team is any better than what they have shown over the last 2 years, being swept aside comfrtably by Ireland, England and Wales, however there seems to be a trend in this RWC of coaches panicking when playing against big name teams who have put in half polished displays againat no real opposition, ala Australia.

If Ireland have any ambitioun whatsoever they stick with what has wrked for them, treat this as a 6N contest and win by 12+, if they get caught up in how good France look and let the occasion get to them they will very much allow France into the game, and well in reality will have beaten themselves.

Totally agree, this is irelands game to lose.

If both play to capacity I see Ireland winning by 8-12 points.

Surprised in the negativity around Ireland.

rodders wrote:Totally agree, this is irelands game to lose.

If both play to capacity I see Ireland winning by 8-12 points.

Surprised in the negativity around Ireland.

Me too, it seems to be a trend with you guys, 6N your all chests out and expectant to beat everyone, come RWC and despite some superb perormances in the group stages you guys get so nervous about your opposition you almost beat yourself, 2011 I had Ireland as favs over Wales, coming off a recent grand slam, and championship, however despite beating Aus you went into your shell and let us play our game, which was crazy.

The thing is this is world cup rugby

I was listening to John Mitchell and Taine Randall last night on Boots and all, and their comments were firstly that Ireland has historically not done well when there is expectation.

Secondly France is a world cup team, they seem to lift for these matches regardless of form.

There is a Frenchman who speaks from FRance (some journalist, I don't recall his name), he says there is a quiet belief in France that regardless of the fact that IReland has won the last 5 meeting s between them, they believe France is going to win.

IT is so tough to say what will happen, who thought Japan would beat SA?

Ireland v France stats...

Last 5 games Ireland have lost 1, (2011),

Ireland are 4 undefeated

Beaten France home and away last times out

Never lost to France at a neutral venue

Havn't lost in Paris since 2010

And the gap between both teams is getting bigger year on year.

Frnce have been awfull last 2 6N tournaments, and were ropy home and away v a poor England team, the squad hasn't changed, the ethos hasn't changed, and the very few quality players they have on form are out injured (Huget), they have an aging pack (average age 31/32) who struggle to get around the park, and a disjointed and unsettled backline who were shamed home and away V England recently...

Whats there to worry about?

Fanster, France shamed by England?

Have you watched the warm ups?

Biltong wrote:Fanster, France shamed by England?

Have you watched the warm ups?

Backline mate, their backline was very much shamed!! Frances pack were as they were, dominant in what they do, Englands backline scored at will at times, Watson stepped 2 defenders in the 5m channel without a hand laid on him, thats awfull!!!!

I'm not saying France are a bad team, although this is as bad a France team as I've ever known really, especially the backline, and i'm not saying they arent a threat because the situation makes them one, however IReland turn up and play their game at their pace and not the situation and France have no hope of winning IMHO.

What happens will obviously be a nervier version of that, but I expect IReland to settle after 20 or so and take control.

Biltong wrote:Fanster, France shamed by England?

Have you watched the warm ups?

Backline mate, their backline was very much shamed!! Frances pack were as they were, dominant in what they do, Englands backline scored at will at times, Watson stepped 2 defenders in the 5m channel without a hand laid on him, thats awfull!!!!

I'm not saying France are a bad team, although this is as bad a France team as I've ever known really, especially the backline, and i'm not saying they arent a threat because the situation makes them one, however IReland turn up and play their game at their pace and not the situation and France have no hope of winning IMHO.

What happens will obviously be a nervier version of that, but I expect IReland to settle after 20 or so and take control.

I don't think this France side can play for 80min.

Certainly they will score at some point but think we have enough in the tank to keep pegging them back.

Historically Ireland have had 2 problems with the French - one is psychological, when you always lose to a team it's difficult to break that duck when they have the mental edge each time and France no longer have that.

Secondly we've been tactically naive against a side which is at it's best in broken play and on the counter. Ireland have neither had the tight 5 to match France in an arm wrestle or the skill/pace to outscore them over 80min -getting lost between poor kicking game and running ourselves into trouble.

Under Schmidt we are much more aware of France's strengths and weaknesses which makes a big difference and France have become increasingly predictable with less players capable of individual brilliance.

Their pack is monstrous and they are certainly capable of winning here but I genuinely think Ireland are the more varied side and have Frances number if they can execute their game plan(s).

rodders wrote:I don't think this France side can play for 80min.

Certainly they will score at some point but think we have enough in the tank to keep pegging them back.

Historically Ireland have had 2 problems with the French - one is psychological, when you always lose to a team it's difficult to break that duck when they have the mental edge each time and France no longer have that.

Secondly we've been tactically naive against a side which is at it's best in broken play and on the counter. Ireland have neither had the tight 5 to match France in an arm wrestle or the skill/pace to outscore them over 80min -getting lost between poor kicking game and running ourselves into trouble.

Under Schmidt we are much more aware of France's strengths and weaknesses which makes a big difference and France have become increasingly predictable with less players capable of individual brilliance.

Their pack is monstrous and they are certainly capable of winning here but I genuinely think Ireland are the more varied side and have Frances number if they can execute their game plan(s).

Totally agree!! Which is the only area I would worry, Wales beat Ireland pre tournament because of a forced kicking game off 3rd/4th phase, now maybe this was a plan of moving the Welsh tight 5 around and taking them out of the game to prep for France, or maybe they were holding their cards closer to the chest to not reveal what they were going to do, but any mistakes in Sextons varied and constant boot and you could find yourselves behind, with the beasts up front you don't want to allow France a lead, and ultimately control of how the game is played.

rodders wrote:I don't think this France side can play for 80min.

Certainly they will score at some point but think we have enough in the tank to keep pegging them back.

I don't get this.  French players can't last 80?  Well maybe some of them will feel the strain of 80 but, then again, a good few of them won't be designed for 80 and know they'll be off in about 60.  But the French team look fit enough to do what they have to do.  They know what condition they have to be in to get through to a final in the WC.  They don't need any lessons in WC preparedness from any of us.  According to Andre they've been up and down Alps all summer.... getting into a condition that will allow them to do more than enough to win big games.

On the contrary, it's mainly been us - the Irish - who've looked one of the least conditioned sides in the competition so far (and I include many of the supposed minnows).  We're the ones that have seen quite a number of our players sucking for air, hands on the back of their heads.  I sure hope we've now overcome our difficulties with 80 minutes - we'll need to play every one of them.

Makes sense to plan a barrage of box kicks. Dulin punches above his weight, but he's a short fella. Nakaitaci is on of those French players who can be amazing , but also can be rattled. Few box kick smashes from the likes of Kearney and Henshaw will do us good. The trick will be to stop Picamoles hanging back waiting for them.

Few box kick smashes from the likes of Kearney and Henshaw will do us good.

But that didn't happen against Italy. No one smashed them back.

Italy raised their game and rattled us, we should be prepared for a French team, with more potential than Italy , to do the same.

For the record I do think we will win!

A box kick or Garryowen moonshooter is fine if you get a few of them cleanly and they lead to ground made because of support rushing in and sustaining the momentum.

Operative words - actually winning a few cleanly.

We haven't been as crisp and clinical in our aerial stuff as we'd like to believe in recent weeks/months.  A lot of sides have been practicing the supposed Irish specialty and have been doing okay at making our signature tune not as potent as it once might have been.  Yet another avenue I wouldn't crow about too loudly until we actually see how effective we might be there from here on in.

I have no doubt we'll be prepared. Half the reason we failed to perform against Italy was we had one eye on the French game! We definitely also tried to bluff France by using a drift defence- there's no way Ireland will give Fofana and basteraud that much space!

kunu wrote:I have no doubt we'll be prepared. Half the reason we failed to perform against Italy was we had one eye on the French game! We definitely also tried to bluff France by using a drift defence- there's no way Ireland will give Fofana and basteraud that much space!

Fofana no, Basteraud can have all the space he likes, 7m in and he's looking for contact anyway, I really don't rate him.

I think even St Andre (the caricature, not the real man) is too bright to fall for that bluff of our oh-so-passive defence against Italy.

I think the passive defence was an invitation for Italy to get into an attacking mood.  We invited them in tactically.  And almost paid a tough price!  But I think Joe and his coaches wanted a tough game to harden the resolve of the players after two far-too-easy games.  
I don't think Italy's challenge was respected enough though and that was much too tight an affair even for Gambling Joe.  But we just about got away with it.  I'm not sure it was designed to make France think we'd try another suicide defensive game this weekend

Fanster wrote:

kunu wrote:I have no doubt we'll be prepared. Half the reason we failed to perform against Italy was we had one eye on the French game! We definitely also tried to bluff France by using a drift defence- there's no way Ireland will give Fofana and basteraud that much space!

Fofana no, Basteraud can have all the space he likes, 7m in and he's looking for contact anyway, I really don't rate him.

Give his head enough space to generate momentum and you can guarantee it'll come smashing into Sextons.

Fanster wrote:

rodders wrote:I don't think this France side can play for 80min.

Certainly they will score at some point but think we have enough in the tank to keep pegging them back.

Historically Ireland have had 2 problems with the French - one is psychological, when you always lose to a team it's difficult to break that duck when they have the mental edge each time and France no longer have that.

Secondly we've been tactically naive against a side which is at it's best in broken play and on the counter. Ireland have neither had the tight 5 to match France in an arm wrestle or the skill/pace to outscore them over 80min -getting lost between poor kicking game and running ourselves into trouble.

Under Schmidt we are much more aware of France's strengths and weaknesses which makes a big difference and France have become increasingly predictable with less players capable of individual brilliance.

Their pack is monstrous and they are certainly capable of winning here but I genuinely think Ireland are the more varied side and have Frances number if they can execute their game plan(s).

Totally agree!! Which is the only area I would worry, Wales beat Ireland pre tournament because of a forced kicking game off 3rd/4th phase, now maybe this was a plan of moving the Welsh tight 5 around and taking them out of the game to prep for France, or maybe they were holding their cards closer to the chest to not reveal what they were going to do, but any mistakes in Sextons varied and constant boot and you could find yourselves behind, with the beasts up front you don't want to allow France a lead, and ultimately control of how the game is played.

Totally agree, the accuracy of both Murray and Sextons kicking is the key. Against Wales Sexton couldn't find his range. We can't afford to give France back 3 free balls - it has to be inch perfect.

I think Ireland do have a policy of kicking after 4 phases, if they haven't made a break through but it needs to be accurate.

The team is what it is. The problem is that we are telegraphing exactly how we are going to play. There will be no surprises or so called power plays. Kick and chase, win lineouts, maul....against any other tier 1 team I would be worried as they would surely counter it like England and Wales did in the warm ups.

The main reason France will lose is PSA....

SecretFly wrote:

rodders wrote:I don't think this France side can play for 80min.

Certainly they will score at some point but think we have enough in the tank to keep pegging them back.

I don't get this.  French players can't last 80?  

No they can't. Mentally and physically they can't perform for 80 min and you'll struggle to find an example when they have in the last few seasons.

French team has been named...nakataci (??) playing as is Dulin on the wings. Tilous-Borde SH. Back row of Louis, Chouly and Dusatoir...

SecretFly wrote:  I'm not sure it was designed to make France think we'd try another suicide defensive game this weekend

Yeah I suppose if the punters on 606 are catching on, the secret's out! But D'arce makes a good point - we have given them nothing to analyse. We simply aren't going to defend that way against France. They will have to go back to 6ns footage to have a look at our defending patterns.

rodders wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

rodders wrote:I don't think this France side can play for 80min.

Certainly they will score at some point but think we have enough in the tank to keep pegging them back.

I don't get this.  French players can't last 80?  

No they can't. Mentally and physically they can't perform for 80 min and you'll struggle to find an example when they have in the last few seasons.  

Ireland tend to fade towards the end of games too, so I guess it's who does it first (or who gets a decent lead).

They've gone for plan A then.... marmalization of the Irish pack.

kunu wrote:

SecretFly wrote:  I'm not sure it was designed to make France think we'd try another suicide defensive game this weekend

Yeah I suppose if the punters on 606 are catching on, the secret's out! But D'arce makes a good point - we have given them nothing to analyse. We simply aren't going to defend that way against France. They will have to go back to 6ns footage to have a look at our defending patterns.

They also based a lot of their attacks in the warm-ups and earlier games around Zebo taking the ball at 1st receiver, so teams would have analyzed this - then we don't pick him at all! Genius!

To hell with the last few seasons, rodders.  
England must surely have killed off the notion that the last few seasons means anything.

This is the WC.  They don't look any more off the pace than we do.  Do we look threatening in intensity, pace and conditioning levels yet?  They'll last long enough to beat us (and well) if we don't do or can't do what we need most now - and that's simply honest to goodness intensity and emotional readiness.

We're not there yet.  It doesn't matter what the tactics are.  If we're not in the collective right mood then few things will stick, balls will be dropped, heads will go down, sulks will happen.  It's the mood we're missing right now.  The mood that this is a world cup and we need to get up off our buts and be fully immersed emotionally - like Wales has proven to be, like Australia have proven to be.  It's not a dress rehearsal.  That bloodymindedness isn't there yet with this Irish team.  It needs to arrive with bells on now.