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6N 2016: England v Wales, 12 March

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6N 2016: England v Wales, 12 March - Page 4 Empty 6N 2016: England v Wales, 12 March

Post by George Carlin Sat 05 Mar 2016, 5:48 pm

First topic message reminder :

6N 2016: England v Wales, 12 March - Page 4 Englan11  6N 2016: England v Wales, 12 March - Page 4 Wales10
ENGLAND v WALES
12 March 2016
KO: 16:00 GMT
Twickenham, London

Live on ITV, RTE, SC4, FR2, DMAX / BBC (H)

Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Touch judges: [tbc]
Television match official: [tbc]

A. Head to Head

119 Played 119
53 Won 54
12 Drawn 12
54 Lost 53
1,428 Points 1,371

B. Recent Form

26 September 2015: Twickenham, London
25 – 28 to Wales
2015 Rugby World Cup Pool A

6 February 2015: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
16 – 21 to England
2015 Six Nations

9 March 2014: Twickenham Stadium, London
29 – 18 to England
2014 Six Nations

16 March 2013: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
30 – 3 to Wales
2013 Six Nations

25 February 2012: Twickenham Stadium, London
12 – 19 to Wales
2012 Six Nations

13 August 2011: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
19 – 9 to Wales
2011 Rugby World Cup warm up test

6 August 2011: Twickenham, London
23 – 19 to England
2011 Rugby World Cup warm up test

C. Teams

ENGLAND
6N 2016: England v Wales, 12 March - Page 4 Carygr10
[tbc]

WALES
6N 2016: England v Wales, 12 March - Page 4 Burton10
[tbc]
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Post by beshocked Tue 08 Mar 2016, 3:59 pm

Munkian you should have seen the talk in the build up to the England-Ireland game. Toner was talked up as a real lineout threat.

Jimpy would you stick with the same backrow?

I've said in the Eddie Jones coach thread I would go for a backrow of Robshaw,Clifford,Billy.

Clifford for a bit more pace.

You talk about real aggression - sadly the aggression England have a tendency to use is the type that leads to being penalised off the pitch.

England need to learn to play the ref properly. About being streetwise.

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Post by Gwlad Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:00 pm

munkian wrote:
Jimpy wrote:
munkian wrote:Milk penalties ? You mean like Marler was proven to be doing ?

No, I mean like the well known, tried and tested Welsh tactic of milking penalties at the scrum. Oh and the breakdown too, so Macarena can kick the points.

How do we 'milk' penalties at the break down ?  Erm


Example

RWC group game England v Wales

Its 25-25, England's Mike Brown goes into contact just on his side of the half way line.

He is tackled and goes to ground, where he hangs onto the ball contrary to the basic rule of the game where you release the ball when off your feet.

He was then 'milked' by the Welsh players, they squeezed him on the ground to try and express the milk and tried to get at the ball but the spiky little so and so was out of milk, he just wouldn't produce! Dry as a bone!

And guess what?!!! The ref, unbelievably in the circumstances, blew his whistle and awarded Wales a pen. Shocking stuff. He must have realized Brown wasn't producing any milk either.

Anyway, everyone had a warm bottle of milk,there was a minor lip wobble at the post game presser from Mr Brown, and the rest was history. Very Happy

have you ever wondered how they milk almonds to get almond milk? Must have very small hands to do that job


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Post by Jimpy Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:01 pm

munkian wrote:
Jimpy wrote:
munkian wrote:
Jimpy wrote:
munkian wrote:Milk penalties ? You mean like Marler was proven to be doing ?

No, I mean like the well known, tried and tested Welsh tactic of milking penalties at the scrum. Oh and the breakdown too, so Macarena can kick the points.

How do we 'milk' penalties at the break down ?  Erm


Sorry, I meant 'get away with murder at the breakdown'.

By being quicker over the ball than you  and having a balanced back row ?

No, by cheating - some of the time.

Don't get me wrong, not getting caught is a real skill, Richie McCaw made a career out of it.

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Post by Recwatcher16 Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:02 pm

England need of play the territory game and smash the opposition on the gain line  as they did against Ireland.
Wales generally play very little rugby and wait for penalties or turnovers through their defence. Gatland won't admit it but just as Wasps in their heyday, prefers the opposition to have the ball and wait for a mistake.
Jones is sharp and if Ford or Farrell bang it into the corners the welsh line-out will be targeted. Chatteris will be brought on sharpish for those.

I have been impressed with the English physicality at the tackle and it has been a while since we have seen the Irish knocked back although they really missed O'Brien.
More of the same against Wales will be order of the day. Wyn Jones today indicated he thought England had a harder edge and I agree with him.

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:04 pm

Just the one ? Im watching it with my English Dad Shocked
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Post by englandglory4ever Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:08 pm

The RWC England team was:-
England XV: Mike Brown, Anthony Watson, Brad Barritt, Sam Burgess, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (captain), Billy Vunipola.

Replacements: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, James Haskell, Richard Wigglesworth, George Ford, Alex Goode.

Of that starting team only 8 are possible starters. We also have new coaches. I'm feeling as comfortable as I think I could be going into the next game. I think all the new players are better than the one's jettisoned. England can score tries whereas Wales find tries difficult to come by. They rely almost entirely on the Macarena to get their points. IF England can keep the Pen count low Wales will find this game very difficult indeed.

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Post by beshocked Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:13 pm

englandglory4ever whilst there is some truth to that.

England have relied on Billy as the primary ball carrier as they did in the RWC.

If Wales can successfully shut him down then our options become a lot less.

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:19 pm

beshocked wrote:englandglory4ever whilst there is some truth to that.

England have relied on Billy as the primary ball carrier as they did in the RWC.

If Wales can successfully shut him down then our options become a lot less.

And you've struggled to keep your penalty count down - and now you are going up against a tidy back row.
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Post by beshocked Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:22 pm

Munkian it's why I would drop Haskell and bring in Clifford.

Haskell got penalised repeatedly against Ireland last year with Joubert as ref.

I can imagine the odds on him or Farrell Jr getting YCs are low.

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Post by Blueschief Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:22 pm

If we're going to compare RWC sides didn't Wales have 8 players missing through injury before that game? Plus another two during. Only players missing this time are Halfpenny and Melon. It's going to be close for sure.

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:30 pm

Blueschief wrote:If we're going to compare RWC sides didn't Wales have 8 players missing through injury before that game? Plus another two during. Only players missing this time are Halfpenny and Melon. It's going to be close for sure.

We didn't even have Halfpenny

Our team was

Liam Williams; George North, Scott Williams, Jamie Roberts, Hallam Amos; Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Gethin Jenkins, Scott Baldwin, Tomas Francis, Bradley Davies, Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton (capt), Taulupe Faletau.

We lost Liam Williams, Hallam Amos and Scot Williams - I think - mid game.

We came back from a 10 point deficit too.
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Post by englandglory4ever Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:30 pm

munkian wrote:
beshocked wrote:englandglory4ever whilst there is some truth to that.

England have relied on Billy as the primary ball carrier as they did in the RWC.

If Wales can successfully shut him down then our options become a lot less.

And you've struggled to keep your penalty count down - and now you are going up against a tidy back row.

No Beshocked if you really look at the Irish game again you will see that there are other very good carries by the forwards notably from Haskell, Hartley, Itoje and Kruis. Billy made a few more yards but the others were pretty good too. Yes Wales will have identified Billy as a threat but he's not the only one by a long stretch. Its also been said that they will target Ford. They have a lot of "targeting" to do and it could get confusing for them.

Munkian alludes to our real achillies heel, the one that could bring our downfall and that's the Pen count. We know Biggar is good so discipline could be the make or break for England. It would be a shame if England lost because of poor discipline but I don't think they will. They have a lot of firepower.

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:34 pm

Why would it be a shame ? Its part of the game.

If Billy only carried by a few more yards do the stats prove that ?
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Post by RubyGuby Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:39 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:This England team have chocked under pressure many times before

No they haven't. To chock is to prevent the movement of a wheel or vehicle with a chock. OK

They chocked - the wheel came off the Chariot after it was prevented from moving thumbsup

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:39 pm

RubyGuby wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:This England team have chocked under pressure many times before

No they haven't. To chock is to prevent the movement of a wheel or vehicle with a chock. OK

They chocked - the wheel came off the Chariot after it was prevented from moving thumbsup

drumroll
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Post by beshocked Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:44 pm

englandglory4ever did you see the metres and carries?

Itoje was the 2nd best forward by metres made and he was very far off Billy in terms of metres. Though he did beat 2 defenders.

Haskell,Kruis and Hartley below Itoje. Hartley couldn't score a try running at full pace, I thought he should have crashed over with that momentum from that close range.

England still lack powerful ball carriers. Itoje was the 2nd best forward and that was his first start. Still way off Billy though.


Many calls to drop Itoje too, ridiculous.

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Post by RubyGuby Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:47 pm

I've got news for you lads - the stats and the metres made count for sweet FA come Saturday - Just saying like thumbsup

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Post by carpet baboon Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:49 pm

beshocked wrote:englandglory4ever did you see the metres and carries?

Itoje was the 2nd best forward by metres made and he was very far off Billy in terms of metres. Though he did beat 2 defenders.

Haskell,Kruis and Hartley below Itoje. Hartley couldn't score a try running at full pace, I thought he should have crashed over with that momentum from that close range.

England still lack powerful ball carriers. Itoje was the 2nd best forward and that was his first start. Still way off Billy though.


Many calls to drop Itoje too, ridiculous.

Hang on beshocked, didn't heartly run into mcklosky? That man can stop a train never mind a hooker

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Post by Scottrf Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:49 pm

beshocked wrote:englandglory4ever did you see the metres and carries?

Itoje was the 2nd best forward by metres made and he was very far off Billy in terms of metres. Though he did beat 2 defenders.

Haskell,Kruis and Hartley below Itoje. Hartley couldn't score a try running at full pace, I thought he should have crashed over with that momentum from that close range.

England still lack powerful ball carriers. Itoje was the 2nd best forward and that was his first start. Still way off Billy though.


Many calls to drop Itoje too, ridiculous.
We get it. The Sarries players played well, the ones competing with them for the jersey didn't.

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Post by englandglory4ever Tue 08 Mar 2016, 4:52 pm

Beshocked. Don't get too hung up about one individual player. If you have most of your pack making powerful carries then 2 things most certainly occur. 1. One of them will carry the most (Billy 209 metres gained). 2. The collective effect of having several strong carries from several players is often very big as it applies a relentless pressure.

I certainly do not agree that we lack powerful ball carriers. And yes I would start Launchbury over Itoje if said player was fit. AND we have scored tries despite being poor when most if not all other team stats are compared. So stats aren't really that important. Its points that count.

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Post by No 7&1/2 Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:01 pm

munkian wrote:Just the one ? Im watching it with my English Dad Shocked

Know the feeling from my Irish father in law.

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Post by beshocked Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:02 pm

Mccloskey.... the player who was almost as hyped up as Toner.

If Mccloskey could stop a train then why not get him to tackle Billy as many times as possible?

scottrf well that's pretty much what has happened.

englandglory4ever I get hung up on one individual player like Billy because he's been doing the bulk of carries and making the most metres in the pack. Someone needs to help share the load.

You want an add a weaker ball carrier to the team? Not good...

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Post by carpet baboon Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:04 pm

beshocked wrote:Mccloskey.... the player who was almost as hyped up as Toner.

If Mccloskey could stop a train then why not get him to tackle Billy as many times as possible?

scottrf well that's pretty much what has happened.

englandglory4ever I get hung up on one individual player like Billy because he's been doing the bulk of carries and making the most metres in the pack. Someone needs to help share the load.

You want an add a weaker ball carrier to the team? Not good...

RFU paid him off. Sorry beshocked did I not make it clear it was humour? Calm down the game is still days off

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:05 pm

So, what will EJ do regarding Manu ?

I think he'll be on the bench.
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Post by englandglory4ever Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:09 pm

Manu didn't quite look up to speed for me when he played at the weekend. He scored a try but it was a walk in really. On the bench at best for me. Probably needs another week in the AP. Apparently he's not yet doing a full week's training so not ready yet.

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:22 pm

It wouldn't be like England to parachute in big heavy centers that arent ready just to combat Wales Wink
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Post by funnyExiledScot Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:27 pm

I do like the way Gatland sets out his team early doors. It just exudes an air of confidence.

Eddie Jones would be mad to ditch Itoje, particularly with Lawes ruled out. The question for me is whether Slater comes straight onto the bench or whether he sticks with Launchbury. I rate Launchbury hugely but wonder whether Slater wouldn't be a better impact sub.

I expect to see Jones go with the following:

1.Marler 2.Hartley 3.Cole 4.Itoje 5.Kruis 6.Robshaw 7.Haskell 8.Billy V 9.Youngs 10.Ford 11.Nowell 12.Farrell 13.Joseph 14.Watson 15.Brown

16.Hill 17.George 18.Mako 19.Launchbury 20.Clifford 21.Care 22.Tuilagi 23.Goode

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Post by funnyExiledScot Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:28 pm

I should add that he might go with Daly ahead of Goode on the bench.

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Post by munkian Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:29 pm

We have a settled team - no point delaying the inevitable
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Post by carpet baboon Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:31 pm

Goode should have focused on 10 rather than Fullback IMO.

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Post by beshocked Tue 08 Mar 2016, 5:57 pm

munkian wrote:It wouldn't be like England to parachute in big heavy centers that arent ready just to combat Wales Wink

The irony of it all is that Burgess didn't do too badly. It was Farrell in the centres that was a bigger problem....


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Post by maestegmafia Tue 08 Mar 2016, 6:11 pm

Jimpy wrote:
munkian wrote:
Jimpy wrote:
munkian wrote:
Jimpy wrote:
munkian wrote:Milk penalties ? You mean like Marler was proven to be doing ?

No, I mean like the well known, tried and tested Welsh tactic of milking penalties at the scrum. Oh and the breakdown too, so Macarena can kick the points.

How do we 'milk' penalties at the break down ?  Erm


Sorry, I meant 'get away with murder at the breakdown'.

By being quicker over the ball than you  and having a balanced back row ?

No, by cheating - some of the time.

Don't get me wrong, not getting caught is a real skill, Richie McCaw made a career out of it.

Yes so did Winterbottom, Back, Hill, Dallaglio, Teague, Rodber, Clarke and many many more.

When you're in a glass house, don't throw stones...!

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Post by englandglory4ever Tue 08 Mar 2016, 6:17 pm

Maes. Now you're just being ridiculous. You shouldn't go winding us English up like that it will get you in to trouble.

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Post by maestegmafia Tue 08 Mar 2016, 6:23 pm

englandglory4ever wrote:Maes. Now you're just being ridiculous. You shouldn't go winding us English up like that it will get you in to trouble.

Winding you up.

I'm pointing a fact that English rugby fans used to be proud of.

Welsh fans are very proud of our backrowers, Toby, Lyds, Warbs and Tips on the bench, great players all lions and respected throughout the game by players, coaches and rugby fans alike.


But today is the first time I have ever read that any of them have been accused of cheating or getting away with illegal play.

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Post by BamBam Tue 08 Mar 2016, 6:34 pm

Then they must be rubbish international back rowers. And they're not

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Post by BigTrevsbigmac Tue 08 Mar 2016, 8:10 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
englandglory4ever wrote:Maes. Now you're just being ridiculous. You shouldn't go winding us English up like that it will get you in to trouble.

Winding you up.

I'm pointing a fact that English rugby fans used to be proud of.

Welsh fans are very proud of our backrowers, Toby, Lyds, Warbs and Tips on the bench, great players all lions and respected throughout the game by players, coaches and rugby fans alike.


But today is the first time I have ever read that any of them have been accused of cheating or getting away with illegal play.

You should get out more

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Post by gregortree Tue 08 Mar 2016, 8:15 pm

Andy Robinson... Baarff and England. 
Glaws fans dubbed  him 'offside Andy'.....a compliment as all fans know.

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Post by No 7&1/2 Tue 08 Mar 2016, 8:58 pm

Tuilagi and Brookes back in the match day squad.

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Post by BamBam Tue 08 Mar 2016, 9:45 pm

That bench just looks packed with impact to me

George, Vunipola, Brookes, Itoje/Launchbury, Clifford, Care, Daly, Tuilagi

Arguably the best impact bench I've seen from an England side

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Post by gregortree Tue 08 Mar 2016, 9:50 pm

Here's hoping bench is deployed more effectively than at last meeting with Wales. Personally I feel pretty confident with this management and this team and this bench. Wow, looking fwd to it.

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Post by Guest Tue 08 Mar 2016, 10:07 pm

That's a cracking bench, fair play. If the score is close on 60-65 mins and we're both using our benches (why wouldn't we!) then I fear for us (Wales). A much better bench than ours, IMO.

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Post by Pot Hale Wed 09 Mar 2016, 12:57 am

Brilliant bench by England. At last, they are reaping the benefits of their superior playing numbers.

This could be the start of a long period of English domination.
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Post by Gwlad Wed 09 Mar 2016, 1:19 am

Pot Hale wrote:Brilliant bench by England.  At last, they are reaping the benefits of their superior playing numbers.

This could be the start of a long period of English domination.

And you wonder why they say England fans are arrogant; we hear this chat every year.

Why not wait until after you hammer Wales and France and then big yourselves up?

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Post by Guest Wed 09 Mar 2016, 1:28 am

There's a lot being said about Wales' style of play, their supposed inability to score tries, and in particular England "throwing away" the World Cup game through indiscipline. There's a few things I'd take issue with here.

Firstly, the World Cup game is available to watch on youtube, in full. It might be worth rewatching for those making statements about the game.

The reason England gave away so many penalties in that game- and apparently why Wales can 'only' score points via Biggar's boot- is due to the fact that, from the 45th minute onwards, Wales played the better rugby. They were running and making ground against an England team that- even with a scrum gaining them penalties- was on the back foot. Several of these penalties in the second half, during the t it for tat stage where each side score three points alternately, came from England infringing at the breakdown because they were being run around the pitch, and gaps were opening up. There were a few key moments in the second half that killed Welsh momentum: Vunipola and Wigglesworth receiving treatment for several minutes of treatment as Welsh pressure built up, Scott Williams' injury during a promising attack, and then finally the double injury to Amos and Liam Williams.

In spite of this, Wales still managed to maintain the composure and confidence to ride the switches in momentum, and they got their reward with the try, which frankly, despite the somewhat surprising way it had been scored, had been coming for most of the second half. Had England not been so happy to slow Welsh ball down, and Robshaw was as guilty as this as anyone else, Wales would perhaps have got back in the game earlier, although it certainly helped that Biggar was impeccable with the boot. It made it easy to opt for relatively tricky kicks at goal, rather than going for the corner. Each kick, though delivering three points, also took pressure off England's defence in that second half. Had that pressure been maintained- i.e. had no penalty been awarded- I don't doubt Wales would have crossed the line before they did.

This leads on to the next point; Wales, against Northern Hemisphere teams, trust their fitness and ability to win the game in the third and fourth quarter of a game. After the opening ten/twenty minutes, where they hope to get a few early kicks, they tend to 'sit back'. I don't want to focus entirely on the World Cup game, so let's look at this Six Nations. Against Ireland, they ground down the Irish who were the better, more ferocious team in the first half, and by the end of the game, Wales could be disappointed they did not win. It was a similar story against Scotland. They weathered their opposition's strong start, got their points in the second half, and conceded a late try with the game won. The French game was slightly different in that the game was all but won once North scored his try, five minutes into the second half. Wales then sat back (also France played pretty well, better than they have done against Wales for a while I think), and this is a point of Wales' mental weakness that I'd like to come back to. Ultimately, however, the same formula was met; get a few kicks, have an arm wrestle, then get a decisive try.

This trend of winning/scoring important points late(r) in the match (against NH teams, who they believe they can win...against SH teams it's vice versa, they need a lead to protect) has been a trend for Wales under Gatland.

Just going on the basis of England games, it was the case in:
*2008: Two quickfire tries in the second half, and Wales come back from 19-9 down to win 19-26.
*2009: Early 9-0 lead through kicks, England come back into it, Wales get a crucial score in the third quarter to lead 20-8, and the game is won 23-15.
*2012: Perhaps the most gruelling 'arm wrestle' of the lot. England leading 12-6, Wales draw level before a late try gives them a 12-19 win.
*2013: Despite the large margin at the end, Wales still only put England away well into the second half, when the groundwork had been done.
*2015 WC: See above.

There are a few anomalies in here, or rather, times where Wales don't get it right. England are, after all, a good team, and there's not a lot between the two teams. In 2010, it was following a similar vein, England leading, Wales recovering, but a silly yellow card to AWJ and an intercept try gave England a win. In 2011, England were fairly dominant. This was a poor Welsh side, the worst of the Gatland era, and England were fully deserving of their 19-26 victory. In 2014, Wales stayed in touch with Halfpenny's boot, but again this was a Wales side in transition, the new scrum laws had ravaged Adam Jones' impact, Mike Phillips was a shadow of his former self, and there was perhaps some fatigue from the Lions Tour. England were also very much up for it, and took advantage. Danny Care's try early on was shambolic from a Welsh perspective. Despite remaining calm, and kicking their goals, the poor defence- and good England attack- never allowed Wales the opportunity to win it late on, and England won 29-18.

I believe the 2015 6N game to be a genuine anomaly. I think the result was almost immaterial to Gatland. He wanted to see what England would bring to the World Cup. Wales started well, absolutely hounded them at every breakdown, rushed the half backs successfully, and led 16-8 at half time. They did not score a point in the second half. It was a combination of not being able to maintain the pace they set for all of the first half (complete antithesis of normal Welsh tactics), and crucially sticking with the 'one out' pass from the scrum half, which was easily read and smothered by the English defence. England grew into the game, Gatland saw what tactics they eventually did employ at the World Cup, with plenty of shielded passes with forwards in the backline, and Wales moved to a pick and go game rather than the simple 'one out' pass by the time they met again in the Autumn. England deserved the win, but I almost felt like Gatland- though obviously would rather have won- kept his hands close to his chest for this one.

So the template- what has become known as the derogatory 'Warrenball'- isn't merely "smash it up and hope for the best". It's "smash it up and be patient". The plan is utterly reliant on discipline, composure, excellent defence, and physical fitness and stamina. It has all the hallmarks of grinding, anti-running rugby for a good proportion of the match, but when it counts, later in the game, Wales rarely keep it tight if they still need to score tries/win the game. There's an acknowledgement that there will be more space, and more opportunity to score tries, at this stage of the game, rather than early on, when the opposition has not been worn down.

There are, however, a few practical flaws where the plan fails in its implementation. Namely, the personnel. Liam Williams, Scott Williams, and Gareth Davies are some of the best attackers in this 6N. Equally, with ball in hand and in space, George North and Alex Cuthbert are devastating. However, the two wingers do not have the complete game, the latter in particular. Jamie Roberts is, relative to the other 12s at Test level, a poor distributor of the ball. Dan Biggar, despite his significant improvement, is still a naturally conservative outside half, and prone to sitting deep, taking the ball when static. He's not bad at taking the ball to the line, but he doesn't have a real, 'natural' running threat that holds defenders (creating space for others) like Trinh-Duc or even Rhys Priestland. It's perhaps most noticeable in the supporting lines some players run having made a break; gone are the days of the almost instinctive link between Lee Byrne and Shane Williams. Welsh players in this team don't seem to be understand each other as well. Support is either overran, running a line where they are marked, or the pass is not quite to hand. Small margins, but in short, the Welsh backs are not quite able to be as ruthless at turning half chances into tries for this gameplan to be wholly successful. Hopefully, with the likes of the first three players I mentioned now getting a chance at Test level, this may change.

The second point is a mental fragility. It's undoubtedly there. I don't think Wales fear any team in the NH anymore. But the SH is a different matter. As good as Australia's defence was in the WC, a few factors played into Wales losing. Firstly, as mentioned above, the handling of Roberts and North- and how readable they were before they made their pass or run- made it 'easy' to defend against them (easy in the sense as readable, still difficult to bring men that size to ground when they're at pace). Secondly, however, is the fear. It's undoubtedly there. The lack of self belief. They wouldn't have lost to South Africa in 2014, or Australia several times since 2012, had this not been the case. As such, Wales need a lead to hold, and the usual mode of late scores is inverted. Sadly, it hasn't proved that successful.

For fear I'm going off topic a little, I'll summarise my above points, and add a few more about the upcoming game:

*Please stop rewriting the World Cup game as a fluke, as shocking, or as England simply throwing it away. History tells us that Wales have won games in this manner plenty of times. The injuries that disrupted them was the most amazing aspect of the game, not the fact they won having trailed.

*Wales do have weaknesses. England should look to get a big lead by the 50th minute mark. Tries either side of half time would probably knock Wales over. Wales' self belief, or lack thereof, may come into play; much like in 2014, they tend to be reliant upon or hopeful for an individual moment of magic to swing momentum, rather than to really do so as a team if they're having a bad day.

*England look threatening when they run the ball. However, like Wales, they still have an element of clumsiness to them. I believe they are given greater license to play than Wales are by their respective coaches, and the Welsh scramble defence went to sea in the World Cup game when England put width on it. Jonny May's try was a really poor one to concede from a Welsh perspective, as a set piece, first phase move that had effectively 'gone wrong' for England. With George Ford at outside half, Wales need to expect more of the English running threat, and the Jonathan Joseph they played last 6N, not the one from the WC.

*England, however, need to be clever when they move the ball wide. North and Cuthbert are very quick, as is Gareth Davies. Equally, Davies and Liam Williams are wonderful counter attackers. Wales- though they rarely do- can still score tries from turnover ball deep in their own half. Move it too wide, too often, or force the play, and it may result in a 14 point swing.

*For Wales, I think the most important thing here is parity, or even superiority, in the set piece. I believe Wales are more savvy at the breakdown. Despite the doubling or tripling up on Sam Warburton these days, he is still incredible at slowing ball down legally, even if he doesn't win the turnover or penalty. England will need to commit men to secure their own ball. Mike Brown aside, England are also appear to be frequently trying to use the boot to disrupt opposition ball, a tactic I'm surprised hasn't been employed more often at the top level. Whether reckless or legal, it's done with the aim to draw opponents in to secure the ruck, whilst not committing you own defenders (or better yet, kick the ball loose and have someone dive on it to win the turnover). They need to be squeaky clean here; if Wales are wise to it and keep a narrow and solid gate, it's almost inevitable the opponent creeps up the side to kick the ball. As long as the referee penalises it correctly (Fingers Crossed), Wales could turn an English strength into a weakness.



It does feel like Wales have had an incredible run against England in the really, obviously 'title winning' games. It may be time for it to end, I don't know. England are still not as good as some of the media are making them out to be (though understandably more hesitant than they were a few months ago). Equally, Wales are probably better than they were in the WC; the scrum in particular seems better with Rob Evans and Samson propping it up, and Bradley Davies has noticeably lifted his game. My one worry would be fatigue for Wales, of the emotional kind rather than physical. These players have been there and done it in the Six Nations. You get the sense this is something of an anticlimax; considering Wales and England have played each other three times in just over twelve months, this game feels like it has the 'least' riding on it, which is odd considering there is a title on the line. The Welsh team looked shattered by the time they faced South Africa, and so it proved. As well as they've played this 6N, there's still been a sense of going through the motions a little bit; could Wales have put more on the line to get the win against Ireland? Perhaps that's harsh, both teams kept going for it well after the 80 minutes. Who knows? This is conjecture on my part, I just think Wales may struggle to get up for it as much as England, who have a new coach, new players, the chance of silverware, and to chance to enact 'revenge' on the team that knocked them out of their own World Cup.

I hope it's a good game, and I am unsure how it will play out on the scoreboard; I can only hope that it will go something on the lines of the above, with Wales trusting in their ability to score points in the second half, and 'stealing' another game from England. Cat

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Post by Rugby Fan Wed 09 Mar 2016, 3:02 am

Good post, miaow. Thanks for that.

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Post by majesticimperialman Wed 09 Mar 2016, 7:01 am

A very good post miaow, enjoyed reading that.

Hers to a good game. thumbsup

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Post by BamBam Wed 09 Mar 2016, 8:06 am

Gwlad wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:Brilliant bench by England.  At last, they are reaping the benefits of their superior playing numbers.

This could be the start of a long period of English domination.

And you wonder why they say England fans are arrogant; we hear this chat every year.

Why not wait until after you hammer Wales and France and then big yourselves up?

Yes, English fans are arrogant because an Irishman thinks England have a brilliant bench

picard

Great post miaow

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Post by HammerofThunor Wed 09 Mar 2016, 8:24 am

Yep, good post miaow. Wales win due to being superior. England only win due to intercepts, silly yellow cards, anomalies or Wales just being poor. I think that just about covers it.

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Post by gregortree Wed 09 Mar 2016, 8:25 am

Gwlad wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:Brilliant bench by England.  At last, they are reaping the benefits of their superior playing numbers.

This could be the start of a long period of English domination.

And you wonder why they say England fans are arrogant; we hear this chat every year.

Why not wait until after you hammer Wales and France and then big yourselves up?

Said the  Welsh fan to the Irish writer. censored
Still...it enabled you to use those buzz words English, fans, arrogant, ...which must  have given you a cheap thrill.

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Post by Guest Wed 09 Mar 2016, 8:49 am

HammerofThunor wrote:Yep, good post miaow. Wales win due to being superior. England only win due to intercepts, silly yellow cards, anomalies or Wales just being poor. I think that just about covers it.

Disappointed in you Hammer. Yours is exactly the sort of post that is ruining this forum.

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