Lions of 2013 that will not make 2017

As an alternative to discussing who could or should be picked for 2017's Lions tour of New Zealand, I thought I would start a discussion discussing the opposite. Who might not make the cut for 2017?

Some choices may be obvious, ie BOD POC as they have retired. Others are out of form, but then there are those who are still brilliant but perhaps likely to be pipped by fresh talent.

Who would you retain from the 2013 tour and who would you drop?

I don't think that any of Hibbard, Best and Youngs are likely to tour. I'd expect that the props with the possible exception of Mako & Cole won't be going. Same with the locks. AWJ will probably go, but Parling's not in the EPS and Gray's further down the pecking order now. It's all about form with the flankers and I'd rate Robshaw and Stander above Lydiate right now. Warburton will likely go again, and possibly O'Brien but these 2 break on a regular basis. Tipuric's form has not moved on by comparison. The 8s will almost certainly be Vunipola and Faletau unless they break. Heaslip is a great player, but (amazing try aside) he's been a step behind the others. Scrum half is VERY interesting - there will be someone who will miss out - there's a good bunch to choose from: Youngs, Webb, Davies, Laidlaw and Murray (outside bet on Care) are all in with a shout.

Fly half is likely to be a 3-way shoot out between Farrell, Biggar & Sexton. Depends who's fit! Centres pose an interesting conundrum now. Davies has been badly off form - in fact the only centre I'd consider at present from 2013 would be Roberts. Wings again I would only be taking North. Wade showed X-factor but hasn't featured for England since because of injuries, potential defence issues and being down the pecking order. As for full backs, well Rob Kearney has been showing poor form and has been injured recently and Halfpenny has been on the treatment table forever. Hogg however is on fire right now.

My squad, if taking 2-3 for each position on their current form (in no particular order - and I haven't included injured players) is as follows:

Loosehead: Mako Vunipola, Jack McGrath, Alistair Dickinson
Hooker: Dylan Hartley, Jamie George, Scott Baldwin
Tighthead: WP Nel, Samson Lee, Dan Cole
Locks: George Kruis, Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, Jonny Gray, Joe Launchbury
Flankers: Chris Robshaw, CJ Stander, John Hardie, Sam Warburton, James Haskell
No.8: Taulupe Faletau, Billy Vunipola
Scrum Half: Ben Youngs, Greig Laidlaw, Gareth Davies
Fly Half: Dan Biggar, Owen Farrell
Centres: Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Joseph, Duncan Taylor, Manu Tuilagi
Wings: Anthony Watson, Tommy Seymour, George North, Jack Nowell
Full Backs: Stuart Hogg, Mike Brown, Liam Williams

45 man squad of 2013

R Best
D Hartley
R Hibbard
T Youngs
D Cole
A Corbiserio
T Court
R Grant
C Healy
G Jenkins
A Jones
M Stevens
M Vunipola
I Evans
R Gray
AW Jones
P O'Connell
G Parling
T Croft
D Lydiate
S O'Brien
J Tipuric
S Warburton
T Faletau
C Murray
M Phillips
B Youngs
O Farrell
J Sexton
B Barritt
J Davies
B O'Driscoll
J Roberts
M Tuilagi
B Twelvetrees
T Bowe
A Cuthbert
C Wade
S Maitland
G North
S Williams
S Zebo
L Halfpenny
S Hogg
R Kearney


Retired (5):
S Williams, O'Connell, O'Driscoll, Corbiserio, Stevens


Highly unlikely to be in the 2017 squad (13):
R Kearney, S Maitland, C Wade, A Cuthbert, B Twelvetrees, B Barritt, M Phillips, G Parling, I Evans, A Jones, G Jenkins, R Grant, T Court, R Hibbard


Doubtful to make the squad (6):
R Kearney, T Bowe, T Croft, C Healy, T Youngs, R Best


Thats more than half the squad. Of the remaining players, I'd say a few won't be selected and a few will be injured.

There are whispers that Phil Vickery might not make it 2017.