UK General Election 2017 Thread

[Muscular-mouse]

First topic message reminder :

Ok guys what are your predictions, how will you be voting and who do you want to win.

[ShahenshahG]

why are the lib dems not promising to scrap tuition fees too?

Fool me once...

[Hammersmith harrier]

why are the lib dems not promising to scrap tuition fees too?

They don't have access to Diane Abbott's magic calculator.

[TRUSSMAN66]

why are the lib dems not promising to scrap tuition fees too?

Fool me once...

The Lib dems..Yes I remember that party.

[jbeadlesbigrighthand]

I think it's pretty clear the Tories are going to walk the election. The only real question is how badly Labour will be hit. The Manchester attack I think plays into Tory hands because Labour are blamed for multiculturalism, while the Tories are leading us into Brexit. Rightly or wrongly, they are therefore associated with cutting immigration.

On the subject of the Manchester bombing, I personally feel that it provides a strong argument against Trident. The major threat to our security isn't nuclear war, it's domestic terrorism. The many billions that are being put into Trident could, I feel, be better spent on domestic policing and intelligence. Of course, Brexit muddies the waters, since we'll no longer be part of the EU, so you could argue Trident becomes more important.

[Crimey]

https://twitter.com/tristandross/status/867679564268490752

[Pal Joey]

I'd vote for that!

[TRUSSMAN66]

In the last poll..Labour were up 17 points with over 70s because of the Dementia tax....Postal Votes started to arrive Monday and the elderly tend to be in the majority of those that receive them...

Read a Labour mp stating that the Dementia tax had gone down like cold puke on the doorstep..

Crumbs of course but every little helps for Labour.

[Ent]

Social care plan was never going to be popular, trying to get it in the manifesto with a huge poll lead so they can pay for social care. I disagree with the method but we need to be honest as a society/nation about the state of social care (both quality and cost) and make a plan to deal with it.

It is not even that good an idea as most people simply avoid it by transferring their assets to their children before they require care.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Here is one for the people looking for a new Labour leader (like me) after June 8 to win back my vote..

Latest odds..

Corbyn to go in 2017................7/4
Corbyn to stay beyond 2017.......6/4......

[Muscular-mouse]

I like corbyn and would like him to stay even if he loses the election but if he does go I want Clive Lewis to be the next labour leader

[GSC]

If Corbyn stays the remaining MPs have to split the party.

May even maintaining her majority is a pretty terrible effort by the main opposition party. Shouldn't lose sight of that when we're discussing Labour's realistic hopes.

[temporary21]

Trident always looks a terrific  waste of money

That is until you go into tough discussions with a nation that has them then realise you just have no real pull

Trident isn't really a weapon. It's a bargaining tool

[Dolphin Ziggler]

I like Corbyn, but can see why he'd be moved on. Chuka Umunna seems charismatic and popular, could see him being a really good vote-winner for them.

[superflyweight]

Dan Jarvis would be the Labour leader the Tories would fear most.

Not a career-politician and previously refused to run for leadership so he could spend more time with his young family (following the death of his wife). Definitely more of a centrist than Corbyn, but comes with none of the baggage of being associated with Blair or Brown and has a focus on making things better for the working classes.

Was a major in the Army (parachute regiment) and saw front-line action in Afghanistan so couldn't easily be attacked for being soft on defence and security.

[TRUSSMAN66]

The latest spreadsheet betting has a Tory majority of 124.....

[navyblueshorts]

Dan Jarvis would be the Labour leader the Tories would fear most.  

Not a career-politician and previously refused to run for leadership so he could spend more time with his young family (following the death of his wife).  Definitely more of a centrist than Corbyn, but comes with none of the baggage of being associated with Blair or Brown and has a focus on making things better for the working classes.  

Was a major in the Army (parachute regiment) and saw front-line action in Afghanistan so couldn't easily be attacked for being soft on defence and security.  

Don't know much about him, but sounds an interesting cove.

[Hammersmith harrier]

The latest spreadsheet betting has a Tory majority of 124.....

The polls and the betting don't seem to be adding up to me.

[GSC]

My suspicion is Corbyns support is thinly spread, not offsetting the losses.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Yougov poll...(24/25 May)....

CON 43
LAB 38......

Only one poll though.....Could be an outlier..

[GSC]

Can get 16/1 on a Labour majority if you fancy it Truss

[Hammersmith harrier]

The polls are getting closer but the betting is getting slightly wider.

[GSC]

30% support doesnt mean 30% of the seats as UKIP found out last time I guess.

But I'd suspect the bookies will be closer to the mark

[TRUSSMAN66]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

[GSC]

Unfortunately only one of those groups tend to turn up on polling day.

[Muscular-mouse]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

So does that mean in the future as the old pass away and the young age will labour be the biggest party?

[GSC]

By that time younger peoples lives tend to have moved on to the point that a decent chunk of their interests probably align with the Tories.

And repeat.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Conservatives lead with men by 20 percent.

Labour lead with Women by 3 percent.

So much for Feminism..

[navyblueshorts]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

'Twas ever thus. Almost everyone moves to the Right as they get older. Ideals clash with the Real World maybe?

[Hammersmith harrier]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

'Twas ever thus. Almost everyone moves to the Right as they get older. Ideals clash with the Real World maybe?

That's what I've said all along; it's a choice between the realism of Theresa May or the idealism of Jeremy Corbyn. The old tend to be better placed to realise that Labour will not be able to follow through with their plans if elected and the young are too easily swayed by free tuition fees.

[GSC]

IFS has wandered into the election.

Essentially Labour have a 9bn hole in their plans that will only widen year on year and tax increases are inevitable under the Tories.

[Muscular-mouse]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

'Twas ever thus. Almost everyone moves to the Right as they get older. Ideals clash with the Real World maybe?

That's what I've said all along; it's a choice between the realism of Theresa May or the idealism of Jeremy Corbyn. The old tend to be better placed to realise that Labour will not be able to follow through with their plans if elected and the young are too easily swayed by free tuition fees.

the realism of Theresa May is tax cuts for millionaires whilst the rest of us get screwed over.

First thing the cons did in 2010 was to reduce income tax from 50% to 45% for the very top earners in the uk and the next thing they did was to treble tuition fees, create the bedroom tax, increase national insurance, scrap EMA and reduce council tax support for the lowest earners in society.

Some of those policies had nothing to do with saving money either, take EMA for example, there was so much evidence that the 500 million it cost was actually paid back in the benefits it offered those who received it.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Non-students really think students care loads about the tuition fees.

It's an interesting balance - I think people get more selfish and bitter with age and turn to the party that they can see tangible personal benefits. And I say that only to counter balance this point being made that the older voters are "realists" and younger voters blind idealists. There's a middle ground

[Muscular-mouse]

IFS has wandered into the election.

Essentially Labour have a 9bn hole in their plans that will only widen year on year and tax increases are inevitable under the Tories.

Well income tax and national insurance are 100% going up under the torys because they keep refusing to rule it out which in political terms basically means that they are 100% intending to do it.

[navyblueshorts]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

'Twas ever thus. Almost everyone moves to the Right as they get older. Ideals clash with the Real World maybe?

That's what I've said all along; it's a choice between the realism of Theresa May or the idealism of Jeremy Corbyn. The old tend to be better placed to realise that Labour will not be able to follow through with their plans if elected and the young are too easily swayed by free tuition fees.

There's elements of what you say in this, but it's not as black/white as lots of people would wish. Neither of them are honest about the costs of anything.

I thought May would be decent at PM, but she's proving that she isn't up to it really.

[navyblueshorts]

IFS has wandered into the election.

Essentially Labour have a 9bn hole in their plans that will only widen year on year and tax increases are inevitable under the Tories.

True, but they don't give the Tories a free ride either:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40057115

[TRUSSMAN66]

This time last month May had a 50 point lead in the Best leader rating..

15 points now..

[Pr4wn]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

'Twas ever thus. Almost everyone moves to the Right as they get older. Ideals clash with the Real World maybe?

Just good old fashioned greed.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Not fair Pr4wn..People want to protect their and the family's future..

The future is infinite when you're a kid.

But I think you can want fairness and protect the future...

One party offers too little..the other too much....But great to see kids getting involved even if it is futile..

Politics should be for everybody..

[GSC]

Reality is priorities change.

Some call it greed, others call it moving into the real world.

[Crimey]

Except Conservatives also don't live in the real world. They've shown time and time again that they are completely oblivious or deliberately ignorant of a lot of people's real and genuine struggles. 

The UK is becoming more and more like the USA in that regard. Adopting the idea of if you work hard enough you will get success, which ignores all the reasons why that isn't necessarily true. This then leads even the poor wanting wealth to be protected in some regards because those people "deserve" the money and have worked hard to get it and those who struggle just haven't worked hard enough or their success is just around the corner.

Makes me think of the quote: "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat, but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires."

Too much of the world is too confident that allowing money to rule everything is the either the correct or even the only way the world should work. I think there needs to be a lot more balance and unfortunately I see this problem only getting worse.

[Pr4wn]

USA was typified yesterday when Ben Carson, who is in charge of housing in the USA said that "poverty was a state of mind".

[GSC]

Politics about compromise though. Won't ever be a party that fully meets all your ideas. To my mind Tories closer to the real world than Corbyns wish list.

Not that I've entirely made up my mind on who to vote for beyond not Corbyn

[navyblueshorts]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

'Twas ever thus. Almost everyone moves to the Right as they get older. Ideals clash with the Real World maybe?

Just good old fashioned greed.

Maybe an element of that, in some people. Too sweeping by far though. Also, many 18-24s don't have the same financial Dogs of War bearing down on them. You know, mortgages, kids, cars, pension etc. That sort of thing. Tends to focus one's mind on money somewhat.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Politics about compromise though. Won't ever be a party that fully meets all your ideas. To my mind Tories closer to the real world than Corbyns wish list.

Not that I've entirely made up my mind on who to vote for beyond not Corbyn

The fact you neglected to mention the Tories costings were way out as were Labour's...Makes one take the view you have known all along who you are voting for..

My Wife and Son are voting Tory.....nothing to be ashamed about.

[Crimey]

Politics about compromise though. Won't ever be a party that fully meets all your ideas. To my mind Tories closer to the real world than Corbyns wish list.

Not that I've entirely made up my mind on who to vote for beyond not Corbyn

I'd rather the real world changed it's priorities a bit though and the Tories are true to their natures as conservatives (little c) in that they'd rather things stayed the same. 

For me, the policies and viewpoints of Conservatives is usually too selfish for me to really accept.

[Crimey]

Yougov breakdown................Pretty much Old vs Young.

Over 65s..Con 65% v 19% Lab.....

18-24s.....Lab 59% v 22% Con.....

Goodnight...

'Twas ever thus. Almost everyone moves to the Right as they get older. Ideals clash with the Real World maybe?

Just good old fashioned greed.

Maybe an element of that, in some people. Too sweeping by far though. Also, many 18-24s don't have the same financial Dogs of War bearing down on them. You know, mortgages, kids, cars, pension etc. That sort of thing. Tends to focus one's mind on money somewhat.

Tax increases generally help those who are struggling for money though, as the cost of the increase in tax is less than the system can help them, particularly with child costs which is one of the most expensive.

Think it's a little unfair to say that 18-24 year olds aren't financially pressured though. I have to pay for rent, a car, Council Tax, food etc. Being able to get a mortgage or even save for a pension are a distant dream for me right now, and whilst they come at a cost, they have long-term benefits unlike renting which is just a great big money pit. Okay, kids are obviously a big saving right now, but there is still a huge amount of financial pressure especially considering the difficulty of getting a job, particularly one that is well paid at the moment. I'm on £17,500 and I'm a graduate, working full-time in a decent job. There is a huge amount of financial pressure on my shoulders, but in my mind, but the Conservatives certainly aren't looking out for me. 

Not to mention that I still see myself as lucky and there a lot of people with less than me and the Conservatives are definitely not looking after them. Their aggressive stance towards disability benefits is disgusting and has blood on it's hands.

[TRUSSMAN66]

By election last night in Southend............

Con +4.7 on last time seat was fought..
Lab +4.3 ............
LIb +2.5............
UKIP -10.00........
Green -2.00........

One look at that tends to suggest Labour and LIbs are squeezing the Greens and a bit of UKIP and the Tories are cleaning most of UKIP..

one thing is for sure....The LIberals remain manifesto isn't hitting the spot..

[Muscular-mouse]

By election last night in Southend............

Con +4.7 on last time seat was fought..
Lab +4.3 ............
LIb  +2.5............
UKIP -10.00........
Green -2.00........

One look at that tends to suggest Labour and LIbs are squeezing the Greens and a bit of UKIP and the Tories are cleaning most of UKIP..

one thing is for sure....The LIberals remain manifesto isn't hitting the spot..

They can't be trusted that's why. You can't get every one of your mps to make a pledge that they will vote to scrap tuition fees and then 1 month later they all vote to treble the cost of tuition fees.

[GSC]

Politics about compromise though. Won't ever be a party that fully meets all your ideas. To my mind Tories closer to the real world than Corbyns wish list.

Not that I've entirely made up my mind on who to vote for beyond not Corbyn

The fact you neglected to mention the Tories costings were way out as were Labour's...Makes one take the view you have known all along who you are voting for..

My Wife and Son are voting Tory.....nothing to be ashamed about.

Was considering Lib Dems at outset. Now not sure I will vote to be honest fella

[TRUSSMAN66]

Fairplay.....

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