Brexit

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 18 Oct 2017, 8:51 pm

First topic message reminder :

Galted wrote:It will stop foreigners praying in our mosques.

by Derbymanc Fri 05 Jan 2018, 5:27 pm

Half the reason the countries coming to these decisions is people assuming they know best for everyone and dismissing anyone that thinks different as idiots/racists etc

by **Pr4wn** Fri 05 Jan 2018, 5:37 pm

But often they are idiots, Derby.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jan 2018, 5:38 pm

Derbymanc wrote:Half the reason the countries coming to these decisions is people assuming they know best for everyone and dismissing anyone that thinks different as idiots/racists etc

Only a belligerent minority abuse others like this, though, Derby (as Prawn has amusingly illustrated).

by **Pr4wn** Fri 05 Jan 2018, 5:40 pm

Can't get away from the fact that they often are idiots. Countless arguments to leave have been completely debunked and yet people still believe in sycophants like Boris.

That suggests to me, that those people are idiots. They're being lead up the garden path.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jan 2018, 5:44 pm

Pr4wn wrote:Can't get away from the fact that they often are idiots. Countless arguments to leave have been completely debunked and yet people still believe in sycophants like Boris.

That suggests to me, that those people are idiots. They're being lead up the garden path.

Which arguments, precisely?

And some people do believe in sycophants like Boris, others believe in sycophants like Blair/Cameron/Clegg.

by **Pr4wn** Fri 05 Jan 2018, 6:11 pm

Some believe in neither.

The 350m argument is one, the ease of the exit process, the ease of getting a trade deal. Just off the top of my head.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jan 2018, 6:31 pm

Pr4wn wrote:Some believe in neither.

The 350m argument is one, the ease of the exit process, the ease of getting a trade deal. Just off the top of my head.

The first one was certainly garbage, made up by the awful Leave campaign. I don't believe it was ever stated that leaving would be easy (article 50 and the two-year process was known about before), neither was it stated (I believe) that getting a trade deal with the EU would be easy (the Leave campaign hedged with this one, talking up the process of no-deal at various points).

Regardless, the vast majority of Leave voters did not vote based on those points.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jan 2018, 6:35 pm

Derbymanc wrote:Half the reason the countries coming to these decisions is people assuming they know best for everyone and dismissing anyone that thinks different as idiots/racists etc

If the reason for voting against the status quo is in any way to spite 'the elite', then I think it's Q.E.D. that there are a lot of daft people out there.

Clearly, many people would have felt they had valid reasons for whichever way they voted. My personal view/worry, is a lot of it's racism cloaked in a desire to 'take back control'. Ignorance, that could perhaps wrongly be taken as racism at the level of many of the public, but active racism and/or power games with little thought about the consequences at the higher political levels i.e. Farage etc.

I find it both quite interesting and concerning that, Germany and Italy excepted (ironically, although they have issues), many of the EU nations with nationalist 'problems' are pretty much all of those who were Nazi sympathisers/collaborators (to varying levels) with very dirty hands re. The Holocaust. Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, The Netherlands, France...

The motivation of Farage et al should absolutely be challenged.

by **Pr4wn** Fri 05 Jan 2018, 6:37 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Pr4wn wrote:Some believe in neither.

The 350m argument is one, the ease of the exit process, the ease of getting a trade deal. Just off the top of my head.

The first one was certainly garbage, made up by the awful Leave campaign. I don't believe it was ever stated that leaving would be easy (article 50 and the two-year process was known about before), neither was it stated (I believe) that getting a trade deal with the EU would be easy (the Leave campaign hedged with this one, talking up the process of no-deal at various points).

Regardless, the vast majority of Leave voters did not vote based on those points.

Your last sentence cannot be proved at all, it's impossible to say how many people those influenced.

Also, Liam Fox said all those things and now he's in charge of international trade in this shambles of a government.

by Dave. Fri 05 Jan 2018, 7:55 pm

I think it's pretty obvious both campaigns played a bit fast and loose. Such is politics these days. But I believe voters can see past all that. It is very possible to have voted Leave and not thought the £350m pledge to the NHS to be very much indeed.

Likewise, whilst a politician can come out and say this is going to be easy, I believe voters have agency, and can think whilst the process will be long and complex, it will be worth it long term.

Not every Leaver was a Faragist, not every Remainer was a Federalist, and yet most of the time on social media, that's all you hear from (or rather, are heard the most) . If you are ever going to change people's minds however, calling them thick or idiots is not a good way to go about it. I'm happy enough with Phase 1, and I see no reason at this stage why I won't be happy at the end of Phase 2. An interesting year ahead anyhow.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jan 2018, 8:38 pm

Pr4wn wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Pr4wn wrote:Some believe in neither.

The 350m argument is one, the ease of the exit process, the ease of getting a trade deal. Just off the top of my head.

The first one was certainly garbage, made up by the awful Leave campaign. I don't believe it was ever stated that leaving would be easy (article 50 and the two-year process was known about before), neither was it stated (I believe) that getting a trade deal with the EU would be easy (the Leave campaign hedged with this one, talking up the process of no-deal at various points).

Regardless, the vast majority of Leave voters did not vote based on those points.

Your last sentence cannot be proved at all, it's impossible to say how many people those influenced.

Also, Liam Fox said all those things and now he's in charge of international trade in this shambles of a government.

It perhaps cannot be proved, but the evidence from the various post-referendum polling strongly indicates it.

Similarly, you cannot prove why people voted the way they did and use it to justify your claims that Leave voters are "often idiots".

I am aware of Dr. Fox stating something along the lines of 'getting the UK and the EU to agree a trade deal will be one of the easiest things in history', but this was well after the referendum had concluded.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jan 2018, 8:40 pm

Dave. wrote:I think it's pretty obvious both campaigns played a bit fast and loose. Such is politics these days. But I believe voters can see past all that. It is very possible to have voted Leave and not thought the £350m pledge to the NHS to be very much indeed.

Likewise, whilst a politician can come out and say this is going to be easy, I believe voters have agency, and can think whilst the process will be long and complex, it will be worth it long term.

Not every Leaver was a Faragist, not every Remainer was a Federalist, and yet most of the time on social media, that's all you hear from (or rather, are heard the most) . If you are ever going to change people's minds however, calling them thick or idiots is not a good way to go about it. I'm happy enough with Phase 1, and I see no reason at this stage why I won't be happy at the end of Phase 2. An interesting year ahead anyhow.

Very sensible points. thumbsup

by TRUSSMAN66 Sat 06 Jan 2018, 8:07 am

Not every leave voter needed to be a Faragist...

Point is the vote finished 52-48 and gullible people do vote..

It is a huge decision...Personally think there should a decent size margin result wise in referendums to accommodate for buyer remorse.

Think you should have to get 55% if you want change or the status quo win and that goes for Independence referenda too.

by Duty281 Sat 06 Jan 2018, 3:52 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Not every leave voter needed to be a Faragist...

Point is the vote finished 52-48 and gullible people do vote..

It is a huge decision...Personally think there should a decent size margin result wise in referendums to accommodate for buyer remorse.

Think you should have to get 55% if you want change or the status quo win and that goes for Independence referenda too.

On both sides.

Wonder if this "buyer remorse" should come in place for the General Elections as well?

by **JuliusHMarx** Sat 06 Jan 2018, 4:06 pm

Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Not every leave voter needed to be a Faragist...

Point is the vote finished 52-48 and gullible people do vote..

It is a huge decision...Personally think there should a decent size margin result wise in referendums to accommodate for buyer remorse.

Think you should have to get 55% if you want change or the status quo win and that goes for Independence referenda too.

On both sides.

Wonder if this "buyer remorse" should come in place for the General Elections as well?

You mean like if a Government got a working majority, then called a snap election a couple of years later and ended up without a majority? Would that indicate "buyer's remorse"?

by Dave. Sat 06 Jan 2018, 5:50 pm

Not necessarily, as the party propping them up may share the same views on certain policies, so a majority in the Commons still exists.

by **JuliusHMarx** Sat 06 Jan 2018, 6:31 pm

But we do get a chance to reverse our vote, as individuals, don't we? Usually every 5 years, sometimes more frequently.

by Dave. Sat 06 Jan 2018, 10:28 pm

We do, and indeed after we have left, the path to a Return would be for a party or parties to obtain a majority in an election, including in their manifestos a pledge to hold a Return referendum etc.

My view is the 2017 election was not a rejection of Tory Brexit ie leaving the SM and CU, as a majority of MPs were elected on manifestos to do just that. The parties wanting a exit from Brexit, got less than 60 seats (before we bring in Labour's ambiguous stance).

The only way I see Remain/Return winning the day is if such parties put in their manifestos that they want a referendum and subsequently win a majority. In the case of Remain, clock runs out on that in 14 months, and in any case, the EU need to agree, too.

by Samo Wed 10 Jan 2018, 5:23 pm

Day by day 'Project Fear' is turning into 'Project We Told You So'.

by TRUSSMAN66 Wed 10 Jan 2018, 6:37 pm

Wish Corbyn would come out for remain....

1. It is the right side to be on for the future of the UK..
2. I think Labour will still keep Brexit voters who are more concerned with austerity.
3. The odious Blair will have to find some other bandwagon to jump on to try to become relevant again..

by Scottrf Thu 11 Jan 2018, 10:27 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Wish Corbyn would come out for remain....

1. It is the right side to be on for the future of the UK..
2. I think Labour will still keep Brexit voters who are more concerned with austerity.
3. The odious Blair will have to find some other bandwagon to jump on to try to become relevant again..

Did you mean to post this two years ago? If so I agree.

by Samo Thu 11 Jan 2018, 11:21 am

Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

by Scottrf Thu 11 Jan 2018, 11:45 am

Samo wrote:Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

Remain would win easily. 'It's what the people want' just isn't true.

by lostinwales Thu 11 Jan 2018, 12:34 pm

Dave. wrote:We do, and indeed after we have left, the path to a Return would be for a party or parties to obtain a majority in an election, including in their manifestos a pledge to hold a Return referendum etc.

My view is the 2017 election was not a rejection of Tory Brexit ie leaving the SM and CU, as a majority of MPs were elected on manifestos to do just that. The parties wanting a exit from Brexit, got less than 60 seats (before we bring in Labour's ambiguous stance).

The only way I see Remain/Return winning the day is if such parties put in their manifestos that they want a referendum and subsequently win a majority. In the case of Remain, clock runs out on that in 14 months, and in any case, the EU need to agree, too.

Might have escaped your notice that the GE was fought on more than one policy and a GE is also dominated by larger parties in the first place.

I do despair of Corbyn, because whatever side of the debate you stand on Brexit is a huge deal. Anything to do with it needs proper scrutiny, both to inform us the public, whose will they are basing this on, apparently, and to keep the government honest in how they are proceeding. We need the opposition to actually provide opposition.

We don't have that

We just get confusion and stupid proposals to the EU whose responses to such is then presented as the EU being 'mean'.

by Dave. Thu 11 Jan 2018, 1:40 pm

Indeed it was (indeed the 2017 GE was a copy of Feb 74), but it's not me making the argument the 2017 GE was a rejection of so called hard Brexit, the main drivers of second referendum have been doing that.

by Duty281 Thu 11 Jan 2018, 5:36 pm

Samo wrote:Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

Would be a pointless exercise.

Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around, and the belligerent Remainers would still want to overturn the result.

The only advantage I can see, of another referendum, is another opportunity to line the back pocket after the clueless bookmakers price it up wrong again.

Anyway, it won’t happen.

by Steffan Thu 11 Jan 2018, 6:35 pm

There will be no second referendum and Brexit will happen. Britain is basically screwed

To anyone hoping to breed in the future (if you will be able to afford it)...best get earning now to support them...as they wont be having much opportunity to do it themselves once the full impact of Brexit kicks in

At least all the people in south east Wales (my neck of the woods) who benefited from EU money that voted Leave wont have to look at any immigrants again...oh wait you didn't have want to anyway because no one wants to come here unless it's to study or work in Cardiff (mainly study). Employment will go up though...if you want to work in the job centre

I'm sure the Tories will look after us though..."Where did you say Wales was again my dear chap...West London?"

On a brighter note...we get to have blue passports. Every cloud and that

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 12 Jan 2018, 8:38 am

Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

Would be a pointless exercise.

Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around, and the belligerent Remainers would still want to overturn the result.

The only advantage I can see, of another referendum, is another opportunity to line the back pocket after the clueless bookmakers price it up wrong again.

Anyway, it won’t happen.

Delusional, but I agree there shouldn't be a second referendum.

by Duty281 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:02 am

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

Would be a pointless exercise.

Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around, and the belligerent Remainers would still want to overturn the result.

The only advantage I can see, of another referendum, is another opportunity to line the back pocket after the clueless bookmakers price it up wrong again.

Anyway, it won’t happen.
Delusional, but I agree there shouldn't be a second referendum.

Of course it's delusional.

Just like the first time round. Or the prospect of Trump winning.

by Scottrf Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:07 am

It is delusional. Even most of the Brexit voters can see how badly it's going.

All polls show a strong remain % now, inb4 'polls can be wrong blah'.

by Duty281 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:40 am

Scottrf wrote:All polls show a strong remain % now.

No, they don't. They show narrow leads for Remain (with one exception), whilst the right/wrong question shows a narrow lead for 'wrong'.

In other words, little has changed from the last time, and you can expect the same result again if another referendum were to occur.

And around 70% think we should push ahead with Brexit, thus puncturing the regret myth.

by **JuliusHMarx** Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:45 am

Duty281 wrote:Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around

Duty281 wrote:Little has changed from the last time, and you can expect the same result again

by Duty281 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 10:10 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around

Duty281 wrote:Little has changed from the last time, and you can expect the same result again

Yes...you can expect the same result (a Leave win), but I think the margin would be greater.

by Scottrf Fri 12 Jan 2018, 10:20 am

Duty281 wrote:And around 70% think we should push ahead with Brexit, thus puncturing the regret myth.

In your polls? Because this says 51% http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/second-referendum_uk_5a57dad6e4b04df054f75746

by No 7&1/2 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 10:44 am

As it would presumably be a more defined view of what brexit would actually be rather than the all things to all people last time wouldn't that narrow the appeal?

by Duty281 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 10:48 am

Scottrf wrote:
Duty281 wrote:And around 70% think we should push ahead with Brexit, thus puncturing the regret myth.

In your polls? Because this says 51% http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/second-referendum_uk_5a57dad6e4b04df054f75746

No, with YouGov.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

(Comres, by the way, predicted a 54-46 Remain win in June 2016, so little change with that poll, I see)

by **Hero** Fri 12 Jan 2018, 12:16 pm

That data is from May last year Duty, there has been a continued shift since that date.

YouGov did the following in October which showed still a majority for Leave but very much a show of Bregret.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

Brexit - Page 7 Bregre10

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 12 Jan 2018, 12:34 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

Would be a pointless exercise.

Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around, and the belligerent Remainers would still want to overturn the result.

The only advantage I can see, of another referendum, is another opportunity to line the back pocket after the clueless bookmakers price it up wrong again.

Anyway, it won’t happen.
Delusional, but I agree there shouldn't be a second referendum.

Of course it's delusional.

Just like the first time round. Or the prospect of Trump winning.

I don't think there were delusional views first time around that 'Leave' would win. Not from me anyway. I was always worried about the numbers of quiet xenophobes and the influence of the scummy and majority right-wing mainstream press.

Time will tell I guess, but if it's FUBAR for 10-20 years I, for one, will not be quiet about how my life was ****ed up for ages by a bunch of dodgy snake oil salesmen and a gullible populace. If it takes an age to get the country roughly back to where it was in 2016, that's not a victory; that's idiocy writ large. I'll be 'Remoaning' as much as I can.

by JDizzle Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:07 pm

I would expect leave to win again to be honest. Purely because the Remain figureheads would be Theresa May, the less said about her campaigning the better (+ by granting a second ref she basically admits she has negotiated a crap deal) and lifelong Leaver in Remain clothing St Jez. Would only work if the next PM is strong Remain.

by No 7&1/2 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:19 pm

May would lead the leave side though.

by Scottrf Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:25 pm

May wouldn't lead anything.

by No 7&1/2 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:38 pm

Depends. If it was a ref as of now it would have to be simplified to say just leave everything ie hard brexit. If it were on the deal agreed in x number of months it would make sense for her as leader. Now would make more sense as we'd still have time to back out of leaving fully. By the time the deal is agreed in principle they may push through a vote on agree to deal or leave without ie a rock and a hard place.

by Duty281 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:44 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

Would be a pointless exercise.

Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around, and the belligerent Remainers would still want to overturn the result.

The only advantage I can see, of another referendum, is another opportunity to line the back pocket after the clueless bookmakers price it up wrong again.

Anyway, it won’t happen.
Delusional, but I agree there shouldn't be a second referendum.

Of course it's delusional.

Just like the first time round. Or the prospect of Trump winning.
I don't think there were delusional views first time around that 'Leave' would win. Not from me anyway. I was always worried about the numbers of quiet xenophobes and the influence of the scummy and majority right-wing mainstream press.

Time will tell I guess, but if it's FUBAR for 10-20 years I, for one, will not be quiet about how my life was ****ed up for ages by a bunch of dodgy snake oil salesmen and a gullible populace. If it takes an age to get the country roughly back to where it was in 2016, that's not a victory; that's idiocy writ large. I'll be 'Remoaning' as much as I can.

Yeah...if you want to campaign for a Remain vote next time (or a rejoin vote), try articulating actual arguments for EU membership, as abuse will get you nowhere.

by Duty281 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:48 pm

Hero wrote:That data is from May last year Duty, there has been a continued shift since that date.

YouGov did the following in October which showed still a majority for Leave but very much a show of Bregret.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

Indeed, and it was backed up by 85% or so voting for parties at the 2017 GE that pledged to Leave.

The YouGov data that I mentioned earlier, and that you’ve highlighted, shows very little change.

by Duty281 Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:51 pm

In 2016, Paddy Power paid out early on Hillary winning.Now they would offer 11/8 on Leave winning another referendum. Laugh

Half hope it does happen now!

https://news.paddypower.com/politics/2018/01/11/uk-odds-vote-remain-second-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-suggestion/

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 12 Jan 2018, 1:53 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:Nigel Farage has told The Wright Stuff this morning that ‘we should maybe have a 2nd referendum on Brexit’.

Ding ding round two.

Would be a pointless exercise.

Leave would win by an even greater margin than the first time around, and the belligerent Remainers would still want to overturn the result.

The only advantage I can see, of another referendum, is another opportunity to line the back pocket after the clueless bookmakers price it up wrong again.

Anyway, it won’t happen.
Delusional, but I agree there shouldn't be a second referendum.

Of course it's delusional.

Just like the first time round. Or the prospect of Trump winning.
I don't think there were delusional views first time around that 'Leave' would win. Not from me anyway. I was always worried about the numbers of quiet xenophobes and the influence of the scummy and majority right-wing mainstream press.

Time will tell I guess, but if it's FUBAR for 10-20 years I, for one, will not be quiet about how my life was ****ed up for ages by a bunch of dodgy snake oil salesmen and a gullible populace. If it takes an age to get the country roughly back to where it was in 2016, that's not a victory; that's idiocy writ large. I'll be 'Remoaning' as much as I can.

Yeah...if you want to campaign for a Remain vote next time (or a rejoin vote), try articulating actual arguments for EU membership, as abuse will get you nowhere.

I'm sure that's exactly what would happen, which would pretty much doom 'Leave'. They failed badly on this in 2016. Still, cutting off one's nose to spite one's face is pretty much a good definition of idiocy though. "How dare you insult my intelligence. I'll show you, you elitist liberal t0sser! I'll show you; I'll vote 'Leave'. Oh...."

It is, however, right to point out that positions taken by those made by Farage are often outright lies and/or racial prejudice dressed up as politics.

by Scottrf Fri 12 Jan 2018, 2:10 pm

Uuurgh. Your 'you voted leave, you're racist' stance is tiresome and moronic.

by **Hero** Fri 12 Jan 2018, 2:19 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:That data is from May last year Duty, there has been a continued shift since that date.

YouGov did the following in October which showed still a majority for Leave but very much a show of Bregret.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

Indeed, and it was backed up by 85% or so voting for parties at the 2017 GE that pledged to Leave.

The YouGov data that I mentioned earlier, and that you’ve highlighted, shows very little change.

Very little change though is all that's required, 52% to 48% is a very thin margin.

by Steffan Fri 12 Jan 2018, 3:11 pm

May should call a second referendum. It is her last shot at having any kind of good legacy. If the result comes back as Leave (economic and political disaster) again then she hasn't lost anything. If it comes back as Remain (prosperity) she can say she was the women who saved Britain

by Steffan Fri 12 Jan 2018, 3:13 pm

Scottrf wrote:Uuurgh. Your 'you voted leave, you're racist' stance is tiresome and moronic

I agree. Not everyone who voted Leave is racist. It is silly to suggest that. All the racist people I know voted Leave though

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