Ireland are the form favourites for the 6Nations

First topic message reminder :

With England's form bubble well and truly burst by the recent Euro match ups and their injury list resulting in a fracture to the squads integrity, it now has to be obvious that the better top down Irish organisation places them in pole position.
You're only as good as your last game and anyone who honestly analysed our win over Ozy knows much luck was expended that day, but realistically the game was considerably closer than score board suggested.
In the bigger picture the envelope of our current development has been reached and changes will result during and after this tournament. Hartley will fall as will others and our over reliance on forward domination above the ability to attack with pace and skill from deep and wide out. Brown will go and the backs will be challenged to deliver and lead our structure.
The dominance of Saracens has been the bell weather to this English revival and now, as is obvious to all, they like England are in transition to be able to progress and challenge further.
So the Irish will have this tournament, but if EJ knows his onions he'll allow bruised bodies to mend and will take an A/B squad away this summer and then start a fresh and beat the AB's in the autumn.

that backrow is amazing.

Strong side Ireland

ruggerradge it really doesn't matter that you scored 3 tries when we scored 7....


As for France, I think they've got a few things working in their favour -

Home advantage. They were unbeaten at home last season in the 6 nations.
Fresh start with a new coach.
Ireland aren't necessarily fast starters. Started badly in the last 2 6 nations with a loss and draw in their first game.
Ireland don't have the best record at Stade de France.

France will have a lot of players who have got to the 1/4s of the European Champions Cup.

Now sure, Ireland have the better team on paper and are more experienced but there's cause for optimism for France.

Am pretty sure the Irish bench has more caps than the whole French starting XV... France Will play basic 1st phase rugby without much invention or trickery and also without a real ball carrier as well. Think this will be very easy for a well oiled Irish defense to predict. After that, French players will be turned over and /or penalised as they will be 2nd best at the breakdown etc etc
The only question mark is how many penalties Jonny boy will chose to convert into 3 points as opposed to kick into touch etc

beshocked wrote:ruggerradge it really doesn't matter that you scored 3 tries when we scored 7....


As for France, I think they've got a few things working in their favour -

Home advantage. They were unbeaten at home last season in the 6 nations.
Fresh start with a new coach.
Ireland aren't necessarily fast starters. Started badly in the last 2 6 nations with a loss and draw in their first game.
Ireland don't have the best record at Stade de France.

France will have a lot of players who have got to the 1/4s of the European Champions Cup.

Now sure, Ireland have the better team on paper and are more experienced but there's cause for optimism for France.

You are not looking at that match in context. here let me help you....

Scotland 27-22 Ireland *5*
England 19-16 France *3*


Wales 16-21 England *5*
France 22-16 Scotland *6*

Scotland 29-13 Wales *16*
England 36-15 Italy *21*

England 61-21 Scotland *40*

Scotland 29-0 Italy *29*
Ireland 13-9 England *4*

As someone who applies physics and engineering in equal measure on a daily basis one of those results was anomalous. Answers on a post card for which one it was. Like I said, it's not an excuse but it is a mitigating factor.

The fact that our defensive system was being exploited before we lost 4 backs to injury suggests that the result although a fair reflection of the day did not reflect Scotland or England's progress throughout the tournament. Broadly speaking Scotland are on the up by beating Wales and Ireland, wheras losing to Ireland and being out foxed by Italy and failing to hammer them suggests that England are on the slide.

You beat us by more points than Italy last year, but I wonder if the trip to Rome or the trip to Edinburgh has Eddie more concerned.

Is it Scotland vs Italy? Only match you didn't concede 13+

lostinwales wrote:Jailbait at 10. To English speaking ears they do come out with some great surnames.

Jefferson Poirot, the famous half-American, half-Belgian politician-detective (French qualified through his grandfather) is my favourite.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

beshocked wrote:ruggerradge it really doesn't matter that you scored 3 tries when we scored 7....


As for France, I think they've got a few things working in their favour -

Home advantage. They were unbeaten at home last season in the 6 nations.
Fresh start with a new coach.
Ireland aren't necessarily fast starters. Started badly in the last 2 6 nations with a loss and draw in their first game.
Ireland don't have the best record at Stade de France.

France will have a lot of players who have got to the 1/4s of the European Champions Cup.

Now sure, Ireland have the better team on paper and are more experienced but there's cause for optimism for France.

You are not looking at that match in context. here let me help you....

Scotland 27-22 Ireland *5*
England 19-16 France *3*


Wales 16-21 England *5*
France 22-16 Scotland *6*

Scotland 29-13 Wales *16*
England 36-15 Italy *21*

England 61-21 Scotland *40*

Scotland 29-0 Italy *29*
Ireland 13-9 England *4*

As someone who applies physics and engineering in equal measure on a daily basis one of those results was anomalous. Answers on a post card for which one it was. Like I said, it's not an excuse but it is a mitigating factor.

The fact that our defensive system was being exploited before we lost 4 backs to injury suggests that the result although a fair reflection of the day did not reflect Scotland or England's progress throughout the tournament. Broadly speaking Scotland are on the up by beating Wales and Ireland, wheras losing to Ireland and being out foxed by Italy and failing to hammer them suggests that England are on the slide.

You beat us by more points than Italy last year, but I wonder if the trip to Rome or the trip to Edinburgh has Eddie more concerned.

Scotland losing to England most definitely is not an anomaly though. A margin of 40 points sure - that's the surprising part but psychologically England has the upper hand.

It does reflect England's dominance over Scotland.

Winning by 21 point margin is still a hammering...

The 2 teams England feel most comfortable playing are Scotland and Italy.

The French have a way of unsettling us, perhaps because they are physically more powerful than Scotland, I don't know.

Even in the wins It's been edgy stuff.


France are just one of those sides I can't underestimate even if they are going through a rough patch. Still came 3rd in the 6 nations last season.

beshocked wrote:

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

beshocked wrote:ruggerradge it really doesn't matter that you scored 3 tries when we scored 7....


As for France, I think they've got a few things working in their favour -

Home advantage. They were unbeaten at home last season in the 6 nations.
Fresh start with a new coach.
Ireland aren't necessarily fast starters. Started badly in the last 2 6 nations with a loss and draw in their first game.
Ireland don't have the best record at Stade de France.

France will have a lot of players who have got to the 1/4s of the European Champions Cup.

Now sure, Ireland have the better team on paper and are more experienced but there's cause for optimism for France.

You are not looking at that match in context. here let me help you....

Scotland 27-22 Ireland *5*
England 19-16 France *3*


Wales 16-21 England *5*
France 22-16 Scotland *6*

Scotland 29-13 Wales *16*
England 36-15 Italy *21*

England 61-21 Scotland *40*

Scotland 29-0 Italy *29*
Ireland 13-9 England *4*

As someone who applies physics and engineering in equal measure on a daily basis one of those results was anomalous. Answers on a post card for which one it was. Like I said, it's not an excuse but it is a mitigating factor.

The fact that our defensive system was being exploited before we lost 4 backs to injury suggests that the result although a fair reflection of the day did not reflect Scotland or England's progress throughout the tournament. Broadly speaking Scotland are on the up by beating Wales and Ireland, wheras losing to Ireland and being out foxed by Italy and failing to hammer them suggests that England are on the slide.

You beat us by more points than Italy last year, but I wonder if the trip to Rome or the trip to Edinburgh has Eddie more concerned.

Scotland losing to England most definitely is not an anomaly though. A margin of 40 points sure - that's the surprising part but psychologically England has the upper hand.

It does reflect England's dominance over Scotland.

Winning by 21 point margin is still a hammering...

The 2 teams England feel most comfortable playing are Scotland and Italy.

The French have a way of unsettling us, perhaps because they are physically more powerful than Scotland, I don't know.

Even in the wins It's been edgy stuff.


France are just one of those sides I can't underestimate even if they are going through a rough patch. Still came 3rd in the 6 nations last season.

True enough, but that doesn't reflect where they are in world rugby either.

James Ryan? Can't say I know much about the young Leinster lock, apart from that he's a big lad. We need to get Adam Beard into our team for the Ireland game so Ryan can be brought down to earth .

Its such a pity Irish rugby has been tainted by the behavior of a few miscreants, one hopes it won't distract them as they are clear favorites for this comp.

Gwlad wrote:Its such a pity Irish rugby has been tainted by the behavior of a few miscreants, one hopes it won't distract them as they are clear favorites for this comp.

Stop being a man sausage, Gwlad (I typed man sausage myself to save the swear filter the effort)!).

mikey_dragon wrote:James Ryan? Can't say I know much about the young Leinster lock, apart from that he's a big lad. We need to get Adam Beard into our team for the Ireland game so Ryan can be brought down to earth .

He's only be replaced by a bigger lad, mikey. At some point Beard would have to think about playing himself some rugby rather than just cutting stray trees down on the field.

Ireland and Scotland have the weight of history against them this weekend. I think its 8 years since Scotland won away to anyone besides Italy. Ireland have beaten France 5 times away since WW2.

WW2?

Jesus, now that's getting back some years.  But aren't things changed now?  TV became popular, colour came, professionalism came, another Nation joined.

Why do we have to torture ourselves with ancient maths.  Why don't we just decide that our cutting off point is the beginning of this century.

23 meetings
France have won 13 (still a bloody good record)
Ireland have won 8
2 draws

11 times played in France - 8 wins for France; 2 wins for Ireland; 1 Draw
10 times played in Ireland - 5 wins for Ireland; 4 wins for France; 1 Draw
2 times played in Neutral venue - 1 win for Ireland, 1 win for France

I'd say our main concern in that period is not winning in Paris but losing in Dublin.

Stats, who'd have 'em

Back to the original contention and it does look as if Ireland will win the championship, however will they be able to out bore England?

kingelderfield wrote:Back to the original contention and it does look as if Ireland will win the championship, however will they be able to out bore England?

Weren't too boring at the weekend. Every rugby connoisseur has his game. That game was liked by lots of people. It was vicious in intent and it had a purpose - try scoring. Not perhaps the fleet footed Rugby League dance-dance-before-you-run kinda ballet type try scoring but meaty old school rugby war-like tries.

Anyway, the England Ireland game is now just a dot on the horizon. A massive Scottish cloud is between us and that horizon now! Negotiating that is enough headache for now.

Saw an interesting Kiwi coach comment at the bottom of an article on the game (think the Times). He said that while the ABs have the best attacking players, Ireland has the best team attack in the world. Says the attack is really innovative and is surprised by it as it is usually either the Kiwis or Australians who come up with new innovations in attack. Says that he can see everyone else copying it in the next year or two.

Sin é wrote:Saw an interesting Kiwi coach comment at the bottom of an article on the game (think the Times). He said that while the ABs have the best attacking players, Ireland has the best team attack in the world. Says the attack is really innovative and is surprised by it as it is usually either the Kiwis or Australians who come up with new innovations in attack. Says that he can see everyone else copying it in the next year or two.

I wrote that!

I'm not getting excited yet. Ireland still have their biggest challenge in the six nations to come. We still haven't faced traditionally our most formidable opponent, the one we most often lose against...

...yes that's right Wayne Barnes. He is due to ref the Scotland game. If we beat Barnes the championship is ours to lose. Barnes being English/Welsh will of course make it hard for us knowing we could be going to Twickers looking for a slam.

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:Saw an interesting Kiwi coach comment at the bottom of an article on the game (think the Times). He said that while the ABs have the best attacking players, Ireland has the best team attack in the world. Says the attack is really innovative and is surprised by it as it is usually either the Kiwis or Australians who come up with new innovations in attack. Says that he can see everyone else copying it in the next year or two.

I wrote that!

Oh, did you? Can you repost it here please. Thought it was an interesting comment.

Yeah, Ol' Wayne for what has become a pretty significant game. And it's our breakdown work he don't like - the thing we're bestest at!

The nerves!!!

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:Saw an interesting Kiwi coach comment at the bottom of an article on the game (think the Times). He said that while the ABs have the best attacking players, Ireland has the best team attack in the world. Says the attack is really innovative and is surprised by it as it is usually either the Kiwis or Australians who come up with new innovations in attack. Says that he can see everyone else copying it in the next year or two.

I wrote that!

Oh, did you? Can you repost it here please. Thought it was an interesting comment.

I was laughing because I read the same comment and kept a hold of it in my memory. And there is sin, spilling it out in public! Keep it under your hats, sin...at least for a few weeks. Gatland didn't get the innovations either, he just thought he was looking at shyte rugby. Let's keep them thinking that.

Collapse2005 wrote:I'm not getting excited yet. Ireland still have their biggest challenge in the six nations to come. We still haven't faced traditionally our most formidable opponent, the one we most often lose against...

...yes that's right Wayne Barnes. He is due to ref the Scotland game. If we beat Barnes the championship is ours to lose. Barnes being English/Welsh will of course make it hard for us knowing we could be going to Twickers looking for a slam.

Aw for fook sake. I'm sticking 50 quid on Scotland to win the championship.

SecretFly wrote:Yeah,  Ol' Wayne for what has become a pretty significant game.  And it's our breakdown work he don't like - the thing we're bestest at!

The nerves!!!

Just to be clear how big a challenge this will be, Ireland have never defeated Wayne Barnes (+ Scotland) in the six nations. Two losses in 2013 and 2011.

are you sure it's 2011 you meant? It seems in 2011 we beat Scotland and Nigel Owens was a the helm?

SecretFly wrote:are you sure it's 2011 you meant?  It seems in 2011 we beat Scotland and Nigel Owens was a the helm?

It was the RWC warm up game that Barnes reffed in 2011.

Oh I thought you meant just 6N record.

Well, we're going to have to negate Wayne's Ways by playing clean aggressive rugby that scores tries and leaves no room for mucking around with interpretations.
We're going to have to see this as a WC session.  
Harder still against Scotland - risk the injuries but don't give them a sniff.  Then harder again away against England.  All out intensity.  This is the rhythm a WC would require.  Ref influence has to be negated by the power of our intensity.

Ah yes you are right, my bad. He has reffed just 1 Ireland v Scotland game in the 6N, two games in total.

It's funny that though.  The way records are recalled just as you say that Guns.

I heard it said over and over before the Ireland v Wales game that Joe had a bad record against Gatland and that he only won one game against Wales in his tenure.
I heard it said in one of the English papers too.  But they never chose to clarify that statement.  Joe only won once in the four 6N meetings - yes.  One being a draw and the other two being Welsh wins.  
But Ireland had played Wales 6 times not 4 times in Joe's tenure.  The other two games were warm-up in 2015.  Ireland won 1, Wales won the other.
So the real record before the weekend was 6 meetings, 3 wins to Wales, 2 to Ireland and the draw.
Now it's 7 meetings, 3 wins apiece and the draw.
Suddenly we're back being equal if ALL records are taken into account.

Sorry to hear about Heaslip. Great player. One of my faves over the years. Never nice to see a player retire through injury. Hope he recovers well.

We didn't speak about him much in latter months but I think everyone secretly thought he'd be back in some capacity - certainly for Leinster.

But like I said earlier - time is a shocker - and instantaneously, the entire fabric of rugby seems to change when these focal players end their careers.

I’m not sure Ireland are favorites. It looks like Scotland are the form favorites having beaten the No 2 in the world. Ireland have just about beaten the 10th ranked team, gave up 3 tries to Italy in 14th and got a last second intercept to beat the 7th ranked team.

Ireland heavy favourites with the bookies now.

Pot Hale wrote:I’m not sure Ireland are favorites.  It looks like Scotland are the form favorites having beaten the No 2 in the world.  Ireland have just about beaten the 10th ranked team, gave up 3 tries to Italy in 14th and got a last second intercept to beat the 7th ranked team.

Nah - Ireland still favourites for me against Scotland and for the championship. Scotland can only win the championship with 2 bonus point wins and if other results go their way. Very unlikely

Ireland are favourites for the championship but I still think they'll lose to England.


Home advantage is a big factor.


Scotland are strong at home but weak away so I don't think they will beat Ireland.

Pot Hale wrote:I’m not sure Ireland are favorites.  It looks like Scotland are the form favorites having beaten the No 2 in the world.  Ireland have just about beaten the 10th ranked team, gave up 3 tries to Italy in 14th and got a last second intercept to beat the 7th ranked team.

Rankings aren't that important in the six nations in terms of the 4 contenders. For example, Scotland got hammered away by Wales who were ranked below them does that mean they have no hope? No of course not.

I think the odds are about right at this stage. Ireland should beat Scotland at home as we have never lost a 6 nations game at home. Wayne Barnes doesn't help the equation though.

Even though we usually don't want to accept favouritism - at this point we realistically have to.  The 6N table kinda puts us there whether we want the honour or not.

But I guess that only lasts until the next round.  Favouritism is a fickle friend.  Scotland beats us in Dublin and there goes favouritism.  England smash France in a revitalised performance, and there goes favouritism.

So really, it's meaningless in the end.  The games themselves tell the story.  I'm lucky that I don't gamble so the game itself is always the only thing that matters.

That 'never' word. We tried to beat it for a number of years against the ABs. 'Never' is always defeated in the end - thankfully when it's us that's beating it. But the Scots should wait a while

England smashing France is unlikely. England realistically need a try bonus point vs France and a big win and hope Ireland get no bonus point themselves to give themselves a shot going into the last round.

I think if Scotland win in Dublin it will be the biggest upset of the championship but it's an opportunity for Scotland to win their first 6 nations title.

Barnes has reffed 13 Ireland matches. We have won 4 of them.

Of the two Scotland games he has reffed we have lost them both. One was a six nations game the other a RWC warm up.

Not only is our win loss average in Barnes matches completely out of synch with our total averages our cards per game both red and yellow and penalty count per game is significantly above our total average in Barnes matches.

He also seems to nearly always be appointed to ref one of the latter Ireland games of the tournament.

Suffice to say (no disrespect to Scotland) Barnes is Ireland's biggest opponent to win a grand slam this year.

beshocked wrote:England smashing France is unlikely. England realistically need a try bonus point vs France and a big win and hope Ireland get no bonus point themselves to give themselves a shot going into the last round.

I think if Scotland win in Dublin it will be the biggest upset of the championship but it's an opportunity for Scotland to win their first 6 nations title.

So was the idea of Scotland smashing England.  
So was the idea of Wales smashing Scotland.  

It happens shocked.  And if England don't have a target to reach in France and don't have the ability to chase after it then yes, they are in serious difficulty on this WC run-in.  I think they'll try to get back on board in an impressive way.  I'm not saying it'll work.  But they do have to prove they are 2nd in the world now.  I think Eddie Jones will have the determination to try.

Yep, definitely the ref's fault if Ireland don't win the Championship.

Scottrf wrote:Yep, definitely the ref's fault if Ireland don't win the Championship.

No just Barnes.

Yep. Even though your opponents get more penalties and more yellows during your games with Barnes, he's the reason you lose.

Scottrf wrote:Yep. Even though your opponents get more penalties and more yellows during your games with Barnes, he's the reason you lose.

They do but the average difference between the penalties we receive and our opponents receive is also well out of synch with our averages, same with cards.

The trends without doubt merit investigation.

He does ref the breakdown more thoroughly. Will be interesting to see this for.ireland scotland as both teams tend to.push it there.

When the championship is down to a shoot out between Ireland and England (and 3rd favorite Scotland) should an English referee really be reffing the Ireland Scotland game?

Doesnt seem right to me. Later stages should be reffed by antipodeans IMO.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:Yep, definitely the ref's fault if Ireland don't win the Championship.

No just Barnes.

No if Scotland beat us it's because they were better than us.
Any issues with Barnes are our issues. If we can't adapt to his reffing style after all this time, then we get what we deserve

Collapse2005 wrote:When the championship is down to a shoot out between Ireland and England (and 3rd favorite Scotland) should an English referee really be reffing the Ireland Scotland game?

Doesnt seem right to me. Later stages should be reffed by antipodeans IMO.

Guns he's a professional ref.
Your starting to sound like those crazy folk on the pro14 forums who think all refs are working for the IRFU