Ireland 6 Nations chat

Geoff on the Ulster thread created a clever analysis on squad depth and I am taking a crack at a similar one for Ireland in advance of the 6 nations:

My assumptions are based on a squad of 36 (not the 40 Joe named last year). Players categories into 4 ratings:

World class = top three in position in world, and/or Lions test starter
International class = would make the team for other tier 1 nations
Below international class - would not make the team for other tier 1 nations
Exciting prospect - show potential to be a real asset

Ideally we have one world class and 2 international class per position.

TH (3)
World class - Furlong
International class - Ryan
Exciting prospect - Porter

Assessment - Drop off after Furlong, but not as steep as with hooker

Hooker (3)
International class - Best, Cronin (instead of Tracy)
Below international class - Herring

Assessment - Our weakest forward position, with a big drop off after Best

LH (3)
World class - McGrath (Lions bench for all three tests, scrapes in here)
International class - Healy, Kilcoyne

Assessment - Most consistently strong position in front row, all three are great players and Healy may well rereach his world class heights in 2018. Add in Moore and its a great position for us

Lock (5)
International class - Henderson, Toner
Below international class - Dillane, Roux (instead of Treadwell)
Exciting prospect - Ryan

Assessment - good first team pair, with some exciting prospects coming through.

Flankers (6)
World class - POM
International class - VDF, Murphy (Instead of TOD, Ruddock and SOB out due to injury)
Exciting prospect - Leavy

Assessment - embarrasment of riches!

No. 8 (2)
International class - Stander, Conan
Assessment - Very strong, with multiple flankers also able to play there

Scrumhalf (3)
World class - Murray
Below international class - Marmion, McGrath

Assessment - big drop off after Murray. Marmion/McGrath neither have been able to fully translate provincial form to ireland

Flyhalf (3)
World class - Sexton
Below international class - Keatley
Exciting prospect - Carberry

Assessment - Sexton staying fit is essential to winning in Twickenham, the drop off after that is huge.

Centers (5)
International class - Henshaw, Aki,
Below international class -  Farrell
Exciting prospect -Scannell (Instead of Ringrose and McCloskey)

Assessment - strong, if not the most exciting group of players.

Wings (5)
International class - Earls
Below international class - Conway, McFadden (Instead of Byrne, Sweetnam)
Exciting prospect - Stockdale

Assessment - some exciting young players coming through, but think Earls will start

Fullback (2)
International class - Kearney
Exciting prospect - Larmour

Assessment - Kearney continues to show his class in the big games and will start 3/4 of the 6 nations, I think Larmour has a good shot of starting the others. TOH if not.

Ironically our WC loosehead might be 3rd choice, but I doubt that will continue for the 6N.

I think Cronin will be in the squad this year, I'd rate him as IC.

Leavy is the best back rower in the country at the minute.

Dillane had a superb few weeks, I'd have him over Treadwell any day of the week, he's been a disaster this season a long with most of the Ulster pack.

Larmour and Stockdale are potential world class players and look the real deal.

Conway is playing out of his skin and would have him ahead of Zebo or Sweetnam and on par with Earls right now. Gilroy is in serious form too in a shambolic Ulster side.

What about that Kiwi winger fella at Leinster when does he qualify, he is some player!

rodders wrote:Leavy is the best back rower in the country at the minute.

Dillane had a superb few weeks, I'd have him over Treadwell any day of the week, he's been a disaster this season a long with most of the Ulster pack.

Larmour and Stockdale are potential world class players and look the real deal.

Conway is playing out of his skin and would have him ahead of Zebo or Sweetnam and on par with Earls right now. Gilroy is in serious form too in a shambolic Ulster side.

What about that Kiwi winger fella at Leinster when does he qualify, he is some player!

I love Dillane, I think he can do amazing in one off games, and he is essential for Connacht, but would he start for another 6 Nations team? I doubt it. Conway is another tough one, I agree he is playing very well, but there are so many good international wingers, and thats the standard, and I do not think he would make many first teams internationally, certainly not any of our big rivals. Gilroy I don't think will be in the squad so left him out. Note, this is the squad I think Joe will pick, not the squad I personally would pick.

Feel really secure about our squad depth at the moment, I think Sexton is the only current player we would struggle to replace. Ross Byrne however has been quietly impressive at Leinster and think he might be a more reliable back up than Keatley. While Murray is our outstanding 9, Marmion, McGrath and especially Cooney have been key performers for their provinces and I'd like Joe to show a bit more faith in them. The England game showed we can still cope without Murray.

The other slight concern is at hooker, I think it's a risky game trusting in a 37 year old Best for 2019. Would expect Cronin to be back in the fold meanwhile Scannell seems to do the basics well enough without being particularly flashy. Personally don't rate Herring nor Tracy.

The back row selection will be very interesting, think POM's lineout ability and leadership are points of difference that keep him at 6 and CJ did enough in November to just hold off Conan. Never thought I'd say this but SOB needs to watch his back, both vdF and Leavy are putting huge pressure on for that 7 jersey. Nothing less than his Lions tour form will be enough for SOB.

As for Larmour I hope he is trusted by Leinster for their upcoming European fixtures, that's the level he needs to be tested at in order to be considered for national selection. Of course he's still very inexperienced and might well make mistakes at Test level, but I like what the ABs have done this year in throwing in Jordie Barrett, McKenzie and Ioane - and that has worked out pretty well for them.

the-goon wrote:Ironically our WC loosehead might be 3rd choice, but I doubt that will continue for the 6N.

I think Cronin will be in the squad this year, I'd rate him as IC.

Agree on your rating of Cronin, but its been a while since he's been in an Irish squad so I wonder if Joe will pick him.

Toner not close to being World Class for me
Cooney at least the equal of McGrath
Leavy has to be included

Overall pretty good summary

geoff999rugby wrote:Toner not close to being World Class for me
Cooney at least the equal of McGrath
Leavy has to be included

Overall pretty good summary

Cheers though i have Toner as IC not WC... He's played exceptionally well for Leinster over the interpros and I could see him making a lot of international teams. Leavy is down as an exciting prospect as he's so young. He will trade places back and forth with VDF on the bench I think. I would have Cooney in the squad ahead of McGrath, but this the squad I think Joe will have.

Schmidt has the luxury of having a settled squad yet some players putting real pressure on to select them.

I can't see Larmour not being selected at this stage. I think he'll be a sub at least and get one or two starts. I think the backrow will stay the same but Leavy will feature a bit. There might be more rotation than normal.

I think Niall Scannell will feature a bit. An outside chance at hooker could be Delahunt of Connacht.

We could do with James Ryan being fit. There's a step down to the others.

One player who deserves a mention is Connachts Tom Farrell. He is top of the pro14 charts for offloads and defenders beaten and for me has been Connachts best player this season. There's a lot of competition at center though.

Don't think there'll be any new caps. Maybe one. One or two players are usually brought into the squad with a view to the future. Wouldn't surprise me to see Max Deegan there. Conan is good but I think Deegan has the X factor and certainly one to watch.

I think Cooney could make the squad too. He has been very good this season.

My team would be
1, Healy
2, Best
3, Furlong
4, Henderson
5, Toner
6, POM
7, SOB
8, Stander
9, Murray
10, Sexton
11, Stockdale
12, Aki
13, Ringrose (though he is still finding form)
14, Earls
15, Larmour

I'd like to see plenty of rotation though. Conway, Rob Kearney, Henshaw, McCloskey, Marmion, Conan, Leavy, Ryan, Ryan, McGrath, Kilcoyne, Porter, Scannell etc

wolfball wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:Toner not close to being World Class for me
Cooney at least the equal of McGrath
Leavy has to be included

Overall pretty good summary

Cheers though i have Toner as IC not WC... He's played exceptionally well for Leinster over the interpros and I could see him making a lot of international teams. Leavy is down as an exciting prospect as he's so young. He will trade places back and forth with VDF on the bench I think. I would have Cooney in the squad ahead of McGrath, but this the squad I think Joe will have.

Cheers I should read more carefully !!

Do people really see Ringrose as the shoe in for 13? He has been out with injury and I have personally never rated him as high as Henshaw myself. To me, he is a very good player but over rated.

I would like to see a centre pairing of Scannell 12 and Henshaw 13.

eirebilly wrote:Do people really see Ringrose as the shoe in for 13?

Nope I think he's behind Aki and Henshaw for Ireland, possibly Payne too if he ever returns. I've been a big fan of Ringrose but he looked someway off his best last weekend against a very poor Ulster side.

Given Henshaw's best performances have come at 13 this season and some much competition I don't think Ringrose is a shoe in to start for Leinster even but he still has time before the 6N to get his fitness and form up.

I also wonder if we might see Earls come back to consideration as cover at 13 with so many options in the back 3 right now. I hope not but he was selected there over xmas for Munster, so wonder if that came from Joe.

McCloskey has played himself out of contention for the foreseeable future imo, he's been woeful after a good start to the season. Scannell might make it in to the squad but don't think he;s a contender for the match day squads.

I don't think that we will see Earls at 13 for Ireland again, he is simply not as good an option as many others. I still think he is Irelands most naturally gifted finisher so should stay on the wing. That said, it is hard to overlook other wing options who have played very well and also deserve a shot.

Scannell is a very competent 12. He is an excellent defender, very mobile, has great offloading skills, has experience at 10 and can goal kick. He is the perfect option for 12 for me and I am very surprised that Schmidt over looks him.

Scannell is a good player, I just think Joe sees him as part of the second tier of player like Marshall, Farrell and McCloskey. Noel Reid is playing good rugby also.

I don't see him looking beyond Aki, Henshaw, Payne or Ringrose in the center if they are fit.

I think if he is looking at Earls as a 13 option it is to see whether to have one of Ringrose or Aki on the bench or a back 3 player like Conway.

eirebilly wrote:I don't think that we will see Earls at 13 for Ireland again, he is simply not as good an option as many others. I still think he is Irelands most naturally gifted finisher so should stay on the wing. That said, it is hard to overlook other wing options who have played very well and also deserve a shot.

Scannell is a very competent 12. He is an excellent defender, very mobile, has great offloading skills, has experience at 10 and can goal kick. He is the perfect option for 12 for me and I am very surprised that Schmidt over looks him.

There you go.  You answered your own query, Billy.  

Wake up and smell the coffee guys - Payne is finished

Schmidt will not look beyond Henshaw, Ringrose and Aki
Others will only get a look in at 12, 13 if at least two of those are injured
There then is a list including McCloskey, Farrell, Scannell, Marshall - much of a muchness

Good read and can't really argue with many of your ratings wolfball (from an English perspective).

Only one that is slightly contentious is McGrath as WC but you explained that well enough.

Ireland's best XV has been strong for a number of years but you're really building some impressive depth. I've never been hugely impressed with your back 3 options (since Bowe was on fire) but you look like you have some outstanding prospects coming through, lets hope JS starts to use them and you open up a bit in attack.

geoff999rugby wrote:Wake up and smell the coffee guys - Payne is finished

Schmidt will not look beyond Henshaw, Ringrose and Aki
Others will only get a look in at 12, 13 if at least two of those are injured
There then is a list including McCloskey, Farrell, Scannell, Marshall - much of a muchness

Agree Geoff but I'd mention Noel Reid, Tom Farrell and Sam Arnold as well, all are having good seasons.

Sound like Ringrose will miss the first few games so that is the starting centers debate over for now anyway

eirebilly wrote:Do people really see Ringrose as the shoe in for 13? He has been out with injury and I have personally never rated him as high as Henshaw myself. To me, he is a very good player but over rated.

I would like to see a centre pairing of Scannell 12 and Henshaw 13.

Where do you think Ringrose's weaknesses are?

For me he is a good all rounder with a good rugby brain and even a bit of flair. I see him as a good international quality player who will probably never be the best in the world in his position but could be top 5.

rodders wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:Wake up and smell the coffee guys - Payne is finished

Schmidt will not look beyond Henshaw, Ringrose and Aki
Others will only get a look in at 12, 13 if at least two of those are injured
There then is a list including McCloskey, Farrell, Scannell, Marshall - much of a muchness

Agree Geoff but I'd mention Noel Reid, Tom Farrell and Sam Arnold as well, all are having good seasons.

Sound like Ringrose will miss the first few games so that is the starting centers debate over for now anyway

Reid I would say no - defence not good enough - same reason Matt Healy doesn't get a look in.
On this I agree with Schmidt
Tom Farrell should be there but he plays for the wrong province
Sam Arnold - done well but still short of international class for me

Collapse2005 wrote:

eirebilly wrote:Do people really see Ringrose as the shoe in for 13? He has been out with injury and I have personally never rated him as high as Henshaw myself. To me, he is a very good player but over rated.

I would like to see a centre pairing of Scannell 12 and Henshaw 13.

Where do you think Ringrose's weaknesses are?

For me he is a good all rounder with a good rugby brain and even a bit of flair. I see him as a good international quality player who will probably never be the best in the world in his position but could be top 5.

Tend to agree - Scannell is a decent player but not a patch on Ringrose
I'd also put McCloskey ahead of Scannell as a 12

geoff999rugby wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

eirebilly wrote:Do people really see Ringrose as the shoe in for 13? He has been out with injury and I have personally never rated him as high as Henshaw myself. To me, he is a very good player but over rated.

I would like to see a centre pairing of Scannell 12 and Henshaw 13.

Where do you think Ringrose's weaknesses are?

For me he is a good all rounder with a good rugby brain and even a bit of flair. I see him as a good international quality player who will probably never be the best in the world in his position but could be top 5.

Tend to agree - Scannell is a decent player but not a patch on Ringrose
I'd also put McCloskey ahead of Scannell as a 12

Scannell is a 12 not a 13 and Ringrose is a 13 and not a 12 so they cant really be compared as far as I am concerned. The Scannell - Henshaw midfield would bring a lot of balance for me.

I am not saying that Ringrose is a bad player, far from it. I just feel that Henshaw is a proper 13 and better than Ringrose at 13. It annoys me that Henshaw is constantly played at 12. There was a lot of hype (still to this day) that Ringrose was the next BOD and I just don't see it that way.

McCloskey was ahead of Scannell but his form of late has not been great (from what I have seen) and I feel Scannell is a better defender than McCloskey.

What do you think his weaknesses are though?

I think he is pretty well rounded, maybe lacks a bit of bulk and has made some defensive errors in particular for one of Hogg's tries last year but in general his defense is good and makes up for lack of bulk with good footwork in offense and good technique and bravery in defense.

eirebilly wrote:
McCloskey was ahead of Scannell but his form of late has not been great (from what I have seen) and I feel Scannell is a better defender than McCloskey.

McCloskey was going well this season and his defence was markedly improved then he came back after the AIs and hasn't looked the same and has almost been getting worse with every game he's played since

His defence is hard to assess recently because Ulster are just so porous but his ball retention has been awful and he's been knocking on in contact in recent games, which will not endear him to Joe

It's strange though that McCloskey gets called out on his defence but it's something that others aren't great at but it gets overlooked, Ringrose included

Thought Stockdale's defense v Leinster was particularly bad. Some really weak missed tackles.

Stockdales one of the others Im talking about, Leinster was the worst I've seen his defence and can maybe be put down to just how poor Ulster are collectively but he does get bounced off tackles more than he should and misses his fair share but it seems his attacking ability is enough to balance it out

Stockdale was unusually poor, he's generally a solid defender. Ulster's shambolic organization, poor line speed and porous midfield really exposed the back 3 defensively against Leinster.

I wouldn't give Stockdale, Trimble or Piatau a pass in this regard but I think they were made to look worse by what was in front of them.

I have no concerns about Stockdale or Ringrose defensively in the 6N.

Keith Earls missed quite a few tackles recently if I recall...

Piatau was burned for one try too.

I agree, I think Stockdale will be much better if he is picked in the 6 nations. However, McFadden may be picked ahead of him such is his form.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:Good read and can't really argue with many of your ratings wolfball (from an English perspective).

Only one that is slightly contentious is McGrath as WC but you explained that well enough.

Ireland's best XV has been strong for a number of years but you're really building some impressive depth. I've never been hugely impressed with your back 3 options (since Bowe was on fire) but you look like you have some outstanding prospects coming through, lets hope JS starts to use them and you open up a bit in attack.

To be a great team I feel you need at least 1 WC player per team area. We have at least one world class player in the front and back row, and both half backs so thats great, but I don't see any WC backrows or centers emerging before the RWC. I do think our back three might have a WC player by then if any of our excitng prospects push on from here ...

For England, you arguably have WC players in front row, second row, 10 and wings, so its interesting we have somewhat opposing strengths. At Twickenham this year our scrums should be even enough, you may have edge in lineout/in the tight and wings, we may have edge in breakdown, with halfbacks and centers even enough aswell. So excited for it.

Stockdale has defended fine on the wing before Leinster - young lad has one bad game and should not be pillored for it.
He will start in the 6N

As for McCloskey his form too has been much better than last year and offers more in attack than Scannell
For me
Henshaw and Ringrose is much better than Scannell and Henshaw which was the point I was making

Stockdale is what, 21? I wouldn't worry about him having an off day. Every player does including Piutau who could be the worlds highest earner next season.


Same with Ringrose. He is only getting back into the swing of things again. Ringrose isn't the biggest but he does have that attacking spark that sets him apart from other contenders. I'm of the belief that high class players brings out the best in other high class players. Get Stockdale, Ringrose, Larmour, Earls, Sexton etc into the same backline and you'll find they'll all be creating space for each other.

profitius wrote:Stockdale is what, 21? I wouldn't worry about him having an off day. Every player does including Piutau who could be the worlds highest earner next season.


Same with Ringrose. He is only getting back into the swing of things again. Ringrose isn't the biggest but he does have that attacking spark that sets him apart from other contenders. I'm of the belief that high class players brings out the best in other high class players. Get Stockdale, Ringrose, Larmour, Earls, Sexton etc into the same backline and you'll find they'll all be creating space for each other.

Jesus Prof.... keep going. This is the stuff now with unusual (for this place) joined up thinking thrown in too!

With both Irish and Scottish fans putting their sides as favourites for the 6 Nations (Welsh fans quiet at the moment) it’s going to be an interesting tournament. I hope we can cope with all these World Class Irish players. Interesting views.

I would say Ireland are joint favorites or marginally behind England. It would be unprecedented if England won a third 6 nations in a row.

Collapse2005 wrote:I would say Ireland are joint favorites or marginally behind England. It would be unprecedented if England won a third 6 nations in a row.

England are odds on, Ireland are 5/2. It's a better draw for England this time with Ireland and Wales at home.

I think the bookies odds are slightly conflated because England are back to back champions and have had a very good run in general which is fair enough.

However, on current form, including club/provincial form I don't think there is much between the two sides.

There's not. Generally the 6 Nations games go by home advantage though. Only England got a non-Italy away win in the last two tournaments.

Scottrf wrote:There's not. Generally the 6 Nations games go by home advantage though. Only England got a non-Italy away win in the last two tournaments.

...whilst England were in generally great form all round.  
Ireland have improved form ...a tad, just a tad...(more so actually in playing style rather than individuals improving individual form)...and of course Scotland promise quite a punch this time round IF Autumn form continues.
So in short, to hell with the bookies... and let the games commence.

Scotland could easily ruin someone's six nations chances. Hopefully it wont be Ireland this time.

Cyril wrote:With both Irish and Scottish fans putting their sides as favourites for the 6 Nations (Welsh fans quiet at the moment) it’s going to be an interesting tournament. I hope we can cope with all these World Class Irish players. Interesting views.

Which WC players do you disagree with? England is clearly favorite for the 6 Nations though like any set of fans Irish fans are not a monolith and there are a few (including me) who thinks that Ireland will win the tournament. As I am sure you believe that England will win.

Collapse2005 wrote:Scotland could easily ruin someone's six nations chances. Hopefully it wont be Ireland this time.

Scotland fans will be annoyed that you only view them as a potential banana skin.

Collapse2005 wrote:Piatau was burned for one try too.

I agree, I think Stockdale will be much better if he is picked in the 6 nations. However, McFadden may be picked ahead of him such is his form.

I totally disagree.
Stockdale has one ropey game - Schmidt will start with him
On form over the last couple of months Stockdale is way ahead of McFadden

Cyril wrote:With both Irish and Scottish fans putting their sides as favourites for the 6 Nations (Welsh fans quiet at the moment) it’s going to be an interesting tournament. I hope we can cope with all these World Class Irish players. Interesting views.

I think you will find nearly all Irish fans have England as favourites

France away is key - win that and with 3 home games every chance.
Lose it and they will have to win in Twickenham to even have a look in

Stockdale has by and large had a good run alright. Most people under rate McFadden but he has had some very good games for Ireland and he has been excellent lately. He also had a decent try ratio for Ireland. The same amount of tries as Zebo in less games for example.

Some players only have to show up to be considered legends while others seem immune to credit. That's just the way it is.

I would also pick Stockdale but I wouldn't be as shocked as everyone else if McFadden is in the squad at some point.

Hats off to I assume Lancaster.... McFadden even seems to run differently now. (runs correctly in other words and looks a different player at his version of top speed now because of it.) I kept asking myself in recent times "Is that really McFadden?" His shape at speed seems different to the old Irish hunched shoulders brand. A rebirth - that might not go on forever - but he's enjoying his training obviously.

As I've always said, not just innate speed that matters but technique adds the seconds and the explosiveness of the sprint. Delighted to see so many new Irish speedsters just simply running with more panache in terms of simple technique.

geoff999rugby wrote:

Cyril wrote:With both Irish and Scottish fans putting their sides as favourites for the 6 Nations (Welsh fans quiet at the moment) it’s going to be an interesting tournament. I hope we can cope with all these World Class Irish players. Interesting views.

I think you will find nearly all Irish fans have England as favourites

Only because the match officials always rob the opposition teams at Twickenham.....

Cyril: ".....I hope we can cope with all these World Class Irish players"

They (England) didn't the last time....so that would be a fair point from Cyril.

I think it was more a wum from cyril and a generous definition of wc.

No 7&1/2 wrote:I think it was more a wum from cyril and a generous definition of wc.

Oh Cyril's always wumming about the place.... that's why I like him, 7&1/2.

Collapse2005 wrote:Stockdale has by and large had a good run alright. Most people under rate McFadden but he has had some very good games for Ireland and he has been excellent lately. He also had a decent try ratio for Ireland. The same amount of tries as Zebo in less games for example.

Some players only have to show up to be considered legends while others seem immune to credit. That's just the way it is.

I would also pick Stockdale but I wouldn't be as shocked as everyone else if McFadden is in the squad at some point.

McFadden In the squad would not surprise me but ahead of Stockdale in the team I can't see
Earls and Stockdale are already pencilled in for the wings - it is theirs to loose
Schmidt went very public after the AIs in his praise of Stockdale - that is very un Schmidt like and shows how highly he rates him