Ireland 6 Nations chat

First topic message reminder :

Geoff on the Ulster thread created a clever analysis on squad depth and I am taking a crack at a similar one for Ireland in advance of the 6 nations:

My assumptions are based on a squad of 36 (not the 40 Joe named last year). Players categories into 4 ratings:

World class = top three in position in world, and/or Lions test starter
International class = would make the team for other tier 1 nations
Below international class - would not make the team for other tier 1 nations
Exciting prospect - show potential to be a real asset

Ideally we have one world class and 2 international class per position.

TH (3)
World class - Furlong
International class - Ryan
Exciting prospect - Porter

Assessment - Drop off after Furlong, but not as steep as with hooker

Hooker (3)
International class - Best, Cronin (instead of Tracy)
Below international class - Herring

Assessment - Our weakest forward position, with a big drop off after Best

LH (3)
World class - McGrath (Lions bench for all three tests, scrapes in here)
International class - Healy, Kilcoyne

Assessment - Most consistently strong position in front row, all three are great players and Healy may well rereach his world class heights in 2018. Add in Moore and its a great position for us

Lock (5)
International class - Henderson, Toner
Below international class - Dillane, Roux (instead of Treadwell)
Exciting prospect - Ryan

Assessment - good first team pair, with some exciting prospects coming through.

Flankers (6)
World class - POM
International class - VDF, Murphy (Instead of TOD, Ruddock and SOB out due to injury)
Exciting prospect - Leavy

Assessment - embarrasment of riches!

No. 8 (2)
International class - Stander, Conan
Assessment - Very strong, with multiple flankers also able to play there

Scrumhalf (3)
World class - Murray
Below international class - Marmion, McGrath

Assessment - big drop off after Murray. Marmion/McGrath neither have been able to fully translate provincial form to ireland

Flyhalf (3)
World class - Sexton
Below international class - Keatley
Exciting prospect - Carberry

Assessment - Sexton staying fit is essential to winning in Twickenham, the drop off after that is huge.

Centers (5)
International class - Henshaw, Aki,
Below international class -  Farrell
Exciting prospect -Scannell (Instead of Ringrose and McCloskey)

Assessment - strong, if not the most exciting group of players.

Wings (5)
International class - Earls
Below international class - Conway, McFadden (Instead of Byrne, Sweetnam)
Exciting prospect - Stockdale

Assessment - some exciting young players coming through, but think Earls will start

Fullback (2)
International class - Kearney
Exciting prospect - Larmour

Assessment - Kearney continues to show his class in the big games and will start 3/4 of the 6 nations, I think Larmour has a good shot of starting the others. TOH if not.

SecretFly wrote:

profitius wrote:Stockdale is what, 21? I wouldn't worry about him having an off day. Every player does including Piutau who could be the worlds highest earner next season.


Same with Ringrose. He is only getting back into the swing of things again. Ringrose isn't the biggest but he does have that attacking spark that sets him apart from other contenders. I'm of the belief that high class players brings out the best in other high class players. Get Stockdale, Ringrose, Larmour, Earls, Sexton etc into the same backline and you'll find they'll all be creating space for each other.

Jesus Prof.... keep going.  This is the stuff now with unusual (for this place) joined up thinking thrown in too!

Haha cheers Fly. Schmidt operates like that too but instead of focusing on space and attack, you can see he likes a big physical team that is defensively good and has a high workrate etc. Henshaw didn't make my preferred team but I'd say he would be one of the first names down on Schmidts teamsheet.

Scottrf wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Scotland could easily ruin someone's six nations chances. Hopefully it wont be Ireland this time.

Scotland fans will be annoyed that you only view them as a potential banana skin.

Not all of them will because of their squad depth. I predicted they would win out right last year. I think they are good enough to again this year but their issue is their depth which makes it really hard to win the 6n.

geoff999rugby wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Stockdale has by and large had a good run alright. Most people under rate McFadden but he has had some very good games for Ireland and he has been excellent lately. He also had a decent try ratio for Ireland. The same amount of tries as Zebo in less games for example.

Some players only have to show up to be considered legends while others seem immune to credit. That's just the way it is.

I would also pick Stockdale but I wouldn't be as shocked as everyone else if McFadden is in the squad at some point.

McFadden In the squad would not surprise me but ahead of Stockdale in the team I can't see
Earls and Stockdale are already pencilled in for the wings - it is theirs to loose
Schmidt went very public after the AIs in his praise of Stockdale - that is very un Schmidt like and shows how highly he rates him

Yeah all true.

Collapse2005 wrote:Stockdale has by and large had a good run alright. Most people under rate McFadden but he has had some very good games for Ireland and he has been excellent lately. He also had a decent try ratio for Ireland. The same amount of tries as Zebo in less games for example.

McFadden has 3 tries against Tier 1 nations, 2 of which are Italy. 7 of Zebos 9 tries are against Tier 1 nations

marty2086 wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Stockdale has by and large had a good run alright. Most people under rate McFadden but he has had some very good games for Ireland and he has been excellent lately. He also had a decent try ratio for Ireland. The same amount of tries as Zebo in less games for example.

McFadden has 3 tries against Tier 1 nations, 2 of which are Italy. 7 of Zebos 9 tries are against Tier 1 nations

So what? Zebo has also played games against tier 2 nations and not scored any tries. USA, Canada and Romania. Surely if by your logic it was easy to score against them he would have scored lots of tries in those games?

McFadden has scored against NZ and France too.

Your point would be more valid if Zebo had only featured against good sides and McFadden only against bad sides but that isn't really the case.

Collapse2005 wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Stockdale has by and large had a good run alright. Most people under rate McFadden but he has had some very good games for Ireland and he has been excellent lately. He also had a decent try ratio for Ireland. The same amount of tries as Zebo in less games for example.

McFadden has 3 tries against Tier 1 nations, 2 of which are Italy. 7 of Zebos 9 tries are against Tier 1 nations

So what? Zebo has also played games against tier 2 nations and not scored any tries. USA, Canada and Romania. Surely if by your logic it was easy to score against them he would have scored lots of tries in those games?

McFadden has scored against NZ and France too.

Your point would be more valid if Zebo had only featured against good sides and McFadden only against bad sides but that isn't really the case.

You'd think you'd have grasped I knew that considering there was a difference between his total and number of tier 2 tries.

I was providing context since McFaddens strike rate is puffed up by his tries against weaker teams. If you thought it was so important you'd be arguing for Gilroy to be in ahead of both

Its not looking too good for SOB to make the opening games of the 6N as he appears to have not gotten over his hip injury. Its a big loss to loose a player of his capabilities, their is adequate back up but not with his big match experience.

On selection for the back three

Kearney, Stockdale and Earls are in
Who of the other candidates will make it
I reckon Conway is a near certainty but of the others ?
Gilroy, McFadden, Larmour and Sweetnam are the maybes in my book

Larmour has been trusted with another start vs Glasgow, surely another strong outing puts him in the wider squad.

One of Earls or Stockdale will definitely start but reckon the other wing could be Conway, he looks in great nick and perfectly fits the Schmidt mould.

marty2086 wrote:

You'd think you'd have grasped I knew that considering there was a difference between his total and number of tier 2 tries.

I was providing context since McFaddens strike rate is puffed up by his tries against weaker teams. If you thought it was so important you'd be arguing for Gilroy to be in ahead of both

Like I said the context you provided is flawed.

geoff999rugby wrote:On selection for the back three

Kearney, Stockdale and Earls are in
Who of the other candidates will make it
I reckon Conway is a near certainty but of the others ?
Gilroy, McFadden, Larmour and Sweetnam are the maybes in my book

I think you are correct but O'Halloran might make it either. It will be more conservative than the Autumn but usually Joe introduces one or 2 new faces to the wider squad at least so Larmour could squeeze in.

Collapse2005 wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

You'd think you'd have grasped I knew that considering there was a difference between his total and number of tier 2 tries.

I was providing context since McFaddens strike rate is puffed up by his tries against weaker teams. If you thought it was so important you'd be arguing for Gilroy to be in ahead of both

Like I said the context you provided is flawed.

You said that?

As far as I can work out 5 of Zebo's international tries had a significant impact on the end result of the game, whereas McFadden's only real 'important' try was against France in 2011 (which we still lost).

rodders wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:On selection for the back three

Kearney, Stockdale and Earls are in
Who of the other candidates will make it
I reckon Conway is a near certainty but of the others ?
Gilroy, McFadden, Larmour and Sweetnam are the maybes in my book

I think you are correct but O'Halloran might make it either. It will be more conservative than the Autumn but usually Joe introduces one or 2 new faces to the wider squad at least so Larmour could squeeze in.

Cant see TOH there - Schmidt not a fan.
Conway is the perfect bench cover for the back three

I reckon he will call up Stockdale, Kearney, Conway, Earls, McFadden, Gilroy with Larmour
The first 4 will make the cut down squad with whoever shows up best out of the last three

Has Larmour had any involvement in the training camps before?

Don't think so, most likely will just be taken along for the experience this time and capped in the summer somewhere

Tend to agree with that assessment geoff, unless he has a barnstorming couple of games in the next few weeks he hasn't done enough for me to get into the final squad. The hype about him is based off moments than than overall performances

Spot on.

Remember a couple of high balls against Munster when he looked distinctly dodgy.

I think we all have a tendency to eulogies about the new kid on the block as we hope against hope they will turn out to be World Class.
Larmour is very promising but obviously has a lot to learn

theslosty wrote:As far as I can work out 5 of Zebo's international tries had a significant impact on the end result of the game, whereas McFadden's only real 'important' try was against France in 2011 (which we still lost).

Tries only count if you win or if it is the winning try? That's a new one.

marty2086 wrote:Has Larmour had any involvement in the training camps before?

He was in camp in November I believe.

rodders wrote:

marty2086 wrote:Has Larmour had any involvement in the training camps before?

He was in camp in November I believe.

Nope, McFadden and Daly were included but not Larmour. Suggests Joe doesn't that he's quite there yet

marty2086 wrote:

rodders wrote:

marty2086 wrote:Has Larmour had any involvement in the training camps before?

He was in camp in November I believe.

Nope, McFadden and Daly were included but not Larmour. Suggests Joe doesn't that he's quite there yet

That's not true Larmour has been included in camps before and was called up personally by Schmidt.

http://www.the42.ie/jordan-larmour-ireland-u20s-interview-3227635-Feb2017/

Larmour didn't have his best day yesterday it has to be said, so has he missed a great opportunity to sneak in.

By contrast Earls, Stockdale and Conway were superb and are nailed on to join Kearney in the squad. I didn't see the Connacht game but hear O'Hallaran stood out.

Personally I've never seen the depth in Irish rugby before that we do now, it is incredible the competition for places in so many positions.

rodders wrote:Larmour didn't have his best day yesterday it has to be said, so has he missed a great opportunity to sneak in.

By contrast Earls, Stockdale and Conway were superb and are nailed on to join Kearney in the squad. I didn't see the Connacht game but hear O'Hallaran stood out.

Personally I've never seen the depth in Irish rugby before that we do now, it is incredible the competition for places in so many positions.

They're nailed on because everyone probably knows a Joe Schmidt team will have few surprises in it when 6N comes (unless forced) not because Larmour had a bit of a less electric day in one game.

This hot and cold reaction period to all the young Irish hopefuls is like a really dramatic spell of icy days followed quickly by some warm days....something is going to crack in weather like that.  It seems Irish people are over-reacting to this influx of new blood and they end up blowing hot and cold week in week out in their views.  Only a short time ago Stockdale was back to an also-ran.... now he's an Ireland saviour again.
Larmour was probably a decoy player in the weekend game.  Taking a break and letting others take the charges as his reputation kept Glasgow eyes on him.  Larmour deserves none of the stuff being written about him recently, neither does Stockdale, Ringrose or Carbery.  They're class one moment and all the columns fill up with oohs and ahhs...then they play a normal game or an ordinary game, and they're old news or haven't reached their potential or good riddance

This is not directed at you Rodders...but I'm using your comment to reflect on what is becoming a bit of an embarrassing time in media circles.  Being dropped in too early into Heavy International Competition won't ruin these young hopefuls...being bigged up by a OTT media is much more dangerous.

Wolfball - really enjoyed the post, thanks for that. I'd suggest using the Lions as a barometer is a slight misnomer though. The lions is the best of what's available to the home nations, but doesn't automatically mean they will be in the top 3 in the world (although of course they often are).

rodders wrote:Larmour didn't have his best day yesterday it has to be said, so has he missed a great opportunity to sneak in.

By contrast Earls, Stockdale and Conway were superb and are nailed on to join Kearney in the squad. I didn't see the Connacht game but hear O'Hallaran stood out.

Personally I've never seen the depth in Irish rugby before that we do now, it is incredible the competition for places in so many positions.

100% agree Rodders. The IRFU, Nucifora and Schmidt all deserve credit for the role they have played in processing new talent.

cascough wrote:Wolfball - really enjoyed the post, thanks for that. I'd suggest using the Lions as a barometer is a slight misnomer though. The lions is the best of what's available to the home nations, but doesn't automatically mean they will be in the top 3 in the world (although of course they often are).

I'd qualify that even more...the best of what's available to the home nations in the mind of the coach chosen to lead them. Coaches can choose unwisely....ask a good few Scottish players.

Collapse2005 wrote:

rodders wrote:Larmour didn't have his best day yesterday it has to be said, so has he missed a great opportunity to sneak in.

By contrast Earls, Stockdale and Conway were superb and are nailed on to join Kearney in the squad. I didn't see the Connacht game but hear O'Hallaran stood out.

Personally I've never seen the depth in Irish rugby before that we do now, it is incredible the competition for places in so many positions.

100% agree Rodders. The IRFU, Nucifora and Schmidt all deserve credit for the role they have played in processing new talent.

They have had nothing to do with the development of Stockdale as a player

That's what you think.

No its what I know

I am lucky enough to have some good contacts in Ulster rugby and through them I get some insight on how the place operates

geoff999rugby wrote:No its what I know

I am lucky enough to have some good contacts in Ulster rugby and through them I get some insight on how the place operates

Geoff, tighten up lad. You know that any player from Ireland that came of age from 2012 onwards is the result of Nucifora and Schmidt.

Ulster have absolutely nothing to do with the development of Stockdale what so ever, how could you even think that? Starting to doubt your rugby knowledge now

I'd assume the jump up in joined up links between development of young players and into the senior levels has much to do with the IRFU, Nucifora and Schmidt.  Even the English press (Guardian) is looking in and admiring from afar the emergence of so many Irish young players with such genuine potential (brains, speed, agility, robustness)...and they intimate that it's obvious it's not just a sudden happenstance of good fortune to Ireland.  And the writer thinks that's the main point the rest of the rugby Nations at the top should be concerned about.  It seems the result of some pretty good organisation beginning to see fruits on the tree.

Is Nucifora and Schmidt hands on developing these young players?  Nobody would claim that's the process.  But between them, they have obviously discussed over the years what is needed, pointed out clearly what in Ireland doesn't and hasn't worked and made their recommendations or directed the changes.  

Nucifora gets blamed for dragging teams down that he 'doesn't like' and yet it seems to be him more than anyone that is once an for all bit by bit ending this stubborn pride in Provincial players not to be seen dead in some other Province's colours.  He'll be thanked eventually for helping Ireland jump up another rung in true sustainable rugby professionalism.  But for now, he's the blow-in basterde with too many hidden agendas.

eirebilly wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:No its what I know

I am lucky enough to have some good contacts in Ulster rugby and through them I get some insight on how the place operates

Geoff, tighten up lad. You know that any player from Ireland that came of age from 2012 onwards is the result of Nucifora and Schmidt.

Ulster have absolutely nothing to do with the development of Stockdale what so ever, how could you even think that? Starting to doubt your rugby knowledge now

No worries - 18 months ago had Schmidt and Nucifora even heard of Stockdale ?
You do know Ryan, Scannell, TOD, Scannell2 to name but 4 have absolutely nothing to do with the Munster academy don't you

SecretFly wrote: But between them, they have obviously discussed over the years what is needed, pointed out clearly what in Ireland doesn't and hasn't worked and made their recommendations or directed the changes.  

Well here in Ulster direction from them, if given, is meaningless
We take what we can get
If a player looks good we take them
3/4 years ago it was all backs, now it is all Hookers, Locks, backrowers and half backs - not a decent threequarter in sight
Nothing to do with Irelands requirements

The guardian is heaping praise on Lancaster.

No 7&1/2 wrote:The guardian is heaping praise on Lancaster.

Nucifora and Schmidt developed Lancaster's ability to coach as well, they spotted him back in 2007.

No 7&1/2 wrote:The guardian is heaping praise on Lancaster.

Lancaster is great for Leinster. He's encouraging them obviously to play the way Leinster teams in the past have played. He's instilling a rebirth of confidence in them after a few seasons of sub-standard inner belief.

But the devil named Nucifora (along with discussions he might have been having with Joe Schmidt behind the scenes) is the man I'd give a lot of credit to for the kinds of players arriving now off the academy shelves. Nucifora and all the coaches that now have these young bloods prepped to a much more professional standard on the eve of their first games at Provincial level.

geoff999rugby wrote:

SecretFly wrote: But between them, they have obviously discussed over the years what is needed, pointed out clearly what in Ireland doesn't and hasn't worked and made their recommendations or directed the changes.  

Well here in Ulster direction from them, if given, is meaningless
We take what we can get
If a player looks good we take them
3/4 years ago it was all backs, now it is all Hookers, Locks, backrowers and half backs - not a decent threequarter in sight
Nothing to do with Irelands requirements

Christ you're in great form this morning, Geoff. If the Ulster players went into the last game they played in your mood, they'd have lost that game too. Better to take your cues from the younger players.... like Stockdale. All hope, enthusiasm, a little devilment (the cheeky pat on the head to the opposition player).

Doom and gloom emotions will get you nothing but doom and gloom.

geoff999rugby wrote:No its what I know

I am lucky enough to have some good contacts in Ulster rugby and through them I get some insight on how the place operates

Good for you. So you think Stockdale's involvement in Ireland under 20 rugby world cup in 2016 and the senior tour to Japan and subsequently the most recent November series have had nothing to do with his development?

I doubt very much any of your "contacts" told you that.

Collapse2005 wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:No its what I know

I am lucky enough to have some good contacts in Ulster rugby and through them I get some insight on how the place operates

Good for you. So you think Stockdale's involvement in Ireland under 20 rugby world cup in 2016 and the senior tour to Japan and subsequently the most recent November series have had nothing to do with his development?

I doubt very much any of your "contacts" told you that.

And how much has he developed thanks to his involvement there?

Is this really a them or us argument?

Surely Stockdale, along with all the other whizz kid potential players, are a product of the schools, the Individual Provinces and then the national set up? All working together to craft the players that are emerging?

No? Too cozy an idea for Provincial infighters?

Some waffle on here today.

Nucifera has done a phenomenal job.

He's been instrumental in bringing in some of the worlds best coaches to the Irish system, such as Lancaster.

Another thing that he has been implementing is closer harmonization in the playing styles of the provinces. This has led to increased skill levels and something Schmidt highlighted as fundamental for him to take the Ireland job.

It is still a work on progress but we are on the cusp of the greatest period of success Irish sport has ever seen, at provincial and National level, and still people moan.

I know we're digesting the prospect of Tommy Bowe now being a regular on Getaways to flog those god awful pink shirts but go easy folks.

Now get over yourselves...and let that be that!

Collapse2005 wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:No its what I know

I am lucky enough to have some good contacts in Ulster rugby and through them I get some insight on how the place operates

Good for you. So you think Stockdale's involvement in Ireland under 20 rugby world cup in 2016 and the senior tour to Japan and subsequently the most recent November series have had nothing to do with his development?

I doubt very much any of your "contacts" told you that.

Playing in under 20 rugby doers not mean they can take responsibility for his development
I also said 18 months ago that pre dates any involvement on the full squad.
My point is his development as a player was internal and when he showed his abilities he got selected Nationally.
Nucifora and Schmidt can not take credit for his development to reach the required level.

rodders wrote: Nucifera has done a phenomenal job.

Juries out and will remain so till the WC

rodders wrote:He's been instrumental in bringing in some of the worlds best coaches to the Irish system, such as Lancaster.

He also dumped Kiss on Ulster.
We have Gibbes but not been given his head yet

rodders wrote:Another thing that he has been implementing is closer harmonization in the playing styles of the provinces. This has led to increased skill levels and something Schmidt highlighted as fundamental for him to take the Ireland job.

Do really think there is a correlation between Leinster and the sh!t Ulster havew been playing in the Pro14

rodders wrote:It is still a work on progress but we are on the cusp of the greatest period of success Irish sport has ever seen, at provincial and National level, and still people moan.

See point 1

geoff999rugby wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:No its what I know

I am lucky enough to have some good contacts in Ulster rugby and through them I get some insight on how the place operates

Good for you. So you think Stockdale's involvement in Ireland under 20 rugby world cup in 2016 and the senior tour to Japan and subsequently the most recent November series have had nothing to do with his development?

I doubt very much any of your "contacts" told you that.

Playing in under 20 rugby doers not mean they can take responsibility for his development
I also said 18 months ago that pre dates any involvement on the full squad.
My point is his development as a player was internal and when he showed his abilities he got selected Nationally.
Nucifora and Schmidt can not take credit for his development to reach the required level.

Nucifora is responsible for overseeing age group performance and the IRFU is in general responsible for having the right people and structures in place. Schmidt often attends under 20s games and has an idea who is progressing well and who should be informally included in camps.

He only started with Ulster in Feb 17 and got his first cap for Ireland in June '17 thanks to Schmidt and was probably involved in Ireland camps prior to that.

Of course the IRFU, Nucifora and Schmidt play a role in player development.

rodders wrote:Some waffle on here today.

Nucifera has done a phenomenal job.

He's been instrumental in bringing in some of the worlds best coaches to the Irish system, such as Lancaster.

Another thing that he has been implementing is closer harmonization in the playing styles of the provinces. This has led to increased skill levels and something Schmidt highlighted as fundamental for him to take the Ireland job.

It is still a work on progress but we are on the cusp of the greatest period of success Irish sport has ever seen, at provincial and National level, and still people moan.

I know we're digesting the prospect of Tommy Bowe now being a regular on Getaways to flog those god awful pink shirts but go easy folks.

Ah sure rodders, its just a bit of pish taking. I know its not a concept ye are used to

Collapse2005 wrote: He only started with Ulster in Feb 17 and got his first cap for Ireland in June '17 thanks to Schmidt and was probably involved in Ireland camps prior to that.

Well wide of the mark Stockdale was on the Ulster books at the start of the 14-15 season

2.5 years before you claim

that was a typo his debut was feb 16 which was what I meant. Think your contacts must be pulling your leg Jeff.

Not my problem you don't know the difference between people being responsible for how a player develops and other selecting him for representative honours, because he has develop so well locally.

Sure when a player makes the grade internationally he will receive advice in an attempt to enhance his game but by then he has already shown sufficient development to warrant attention.

Fact remains he was in the Ulster set up for, at least, 2 years before he played any representative matches and 3 years before he played a full international.