Political round up.............

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Ah well, at least he admitted it straightaway.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Ah well, at least he admitted it straightaway.

He didn't have much of a choice though. The youff are much more savvy about this stuff than he is. I'm sure he realised that if he denied a truth that happened in a public space, the next thing that would appear is video evidence that proved he was lying.... rather like a certain gentleman leaving a Government property on his bike once upon a time.

Raab (I think) did the turning away from something he was staring at off camera to turn and see it was time to speak - thing...not as catchy, that.

According to a Yougov poll, a narrow majority of Tory members (59%) voted for the Brexit Party (i.e. a no deal exit) at the recent European Elections. If Rory Stewart gets through to the final two after the various internal politicking, he will find it very tough to beat a 'no deal' candidate.

Who in turn finds it very hard to beat parliament

GSC wrote:Who in turn finds it very hard to beat parliament

Precisely.

A No Deal/Hard Brexit may be desired by some but it will never get passed through Parliament and to try is to merely waste time.

The Tory government has always ruled out another referendum but it is probably the only way to get No Deal through by adding it as an option in a referendum to the public.

That's fine, no deal doesn't need to go through Parliament.

YouGov poll out tonight (Westminster) reportedly going to show - LDs 24%; BP 22%; Con 19%; Lab 19%. Odd times.

Duty281 wrote:That's fine, no deal doesn't need to go through Parliament.

That is true. However, there is no doubt it would have huge repercussions ie a certain vote of no confidence in the government and a general election that would see the Tories lose power.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:That's fine, no deal doesn't need to go through Parliament.

That is true. However, there is no doubt it would have huge repercussions ie a certain vote of no confidence in the government and a general election that would see the Tories lose power.

I don't think a vote of no confidence would happen. It needs a parliamentary majority to pass and all Tory and DUP MPs would vote against it, as they wouldn't want a GE. The Change UK MPs might vote against it as well, as a GE would see them lose office and they loathe Corbyn's leadership.

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:That's fine, no deal doesn't need to go through Parliament.

That is true. However, there is no doubt it would have huge repercussions ie a certain vote of no confidence in the government and a general election that would see the Tories lose power.

I don't think a vote of no confidence would happen. It needs a parliamentary majority to pass and all Tory and DUP MPs would vote against it, as they wouldn't want a GE. The Change UK MPs might vote against it as well, as a GE would see them lose office and they loathe Corbyn's leadership.

Well no the DUP would not support it as it would mean a hard border would be imminent and they do not want that. So you are trying to say this Tory government, on its knees and in disarray could announce a No Deal Brexit without any comebacks??

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:That's fine, no deal doesn't need to go through Parliament.

That is true. However, there is no doubt it would have huge repercussions ie a certain vote of no confidence in the government and a general election that would see the Tories lose power.

I don't think a vote of no confidence would happen. It needs a parliamentary majority to pass and all Tory and DUP MPs would vote against it, as they wouldn't want a GE. The Change UK MPs might vote against it as well, as a GE would see them lose office and they loathe Corbyn's leadership.

Well no the DUP would not support it as it would mean a hard border would be imminent and they do not want that. So you are trying to say this Tory government, on its knees and in disarray could announce a No Deal Brexit without any comebacks??

The DUP will almost certainly lose the political power they currently hold come the next GE and a desire to avoid that will trump almost anything else, so they will almost certainly vote to keep the government in, in a possible vote of no confidence.

A no-deal exit happens and all will be well. The Tories will probably get a boost in polling if that happens, actually, as the Brexit Party will be neutralised, and a good proportion of those BP voters will go to the Tories.

The only alternative for the Tories is of course to revoke article 50. This will destroy any credibility the Tories have left. From 2013-2016 they were banging on about having a referendum and letting the British people decide. After the referendum, they trumpeted 'no deal is better than a bad deal'. If they were to go back on all of that by revoking article 50, a steady stream of voters, activists, councillors and MPs would join the Brexit Party. It would be the ultimate betrayal. The government would collapse. The Tory Party would perish.

The DUP have voted against the government before and certainly will if a hard border is likely. A hard border in Ireland affects them far more long term than a partnership destined to end in a matter of months anyway.

The only Tory option is another referendum with two options but it should be three. The two option one would be No Deal or May's Deal.

Or perhaps a two options of No Deal or No exit as May's Deal has already been blown out more times than a eind-sock.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791

Boris will probably tell them to f*ck off again - because he and his ilk don't give a stuff about people losing their jobs, businesses going bust, lower living standards etc.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Or perhaps a two options of No Deal or No exit as May's Deal has already been blown out more times than a eind-sock.

If we were to have another referendum (which I highly doubt), the choices should be in my opinion.

No Brexit
No Deal.
Leave but remain in the custom union.

Luke wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Or perhaps a two options of No Deal or No exit as May's Deal has already been blown out more times than a eind-sock.

If we were to have another referendum (which I highly doubt), the choices should be in my opinion.

No Brexit
No Deal.
Leave but remain in the custom union.

Yes that is a good shout.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Luke wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Or perhaps a two options of No Deal or No exit as May's Deal has already been blown out more times than a eind-sock.

If we were to have another referendum (which I highly doubt), the choices should be in my opinion.

No Brexit
No Deal.
Leave but remain in the custom union.

Yes that is a good shout.

Wouldn't that be seen as splitting the Brexit vote and is Remain biased in a 50/25/25 split? How would the parties campaign for this?

Con: No Deal/Leave but remain in the custom union depending on who is leader
Lab: Leave but remain in the custom union
Lib Dem: No Brexit
Green: No Brexit
SNP: No Brexit
Brexit Party: No Deal
UKIP: No Deal
Plaid: No Brexit

Not saying this isn't a good 3 choices. Just thinking would these options ever get accepted. I think if there is ever another referendum it would be a straight In or Out question, with the fallout and confusion which follows the first one whatever the result.

The referendum has split the country so much that we could have 10 and still not have a mandate for either side. Only way I see that happening is a No Deal scenario happening, it being catastrophic, a no-confidence/general election and a new referendum going ahead which the country mostly all getting behind the Remain (or in this case "Get Back In") option.

We have to do one scenario which then fails, and everyone can see it fails, before those with deeply rooted opinions start to think again.

If we had a general election tomorrow Labour might (just) end up as the biggest single party but no party would be likely to get a majority. And I just can't see Corbyn as the man to build any kind of coalition. The longer time goes on Corbyn's plan of turning Labour into a minor left wing party will see them move further and further out of the running, leaving, nobody...

The scary thing is that you could actually see the Brexit party winning seats despite not having any experience, plans, manifesto or anybody who could actually make a decent job of being an MP. It is so much easier being against something than for anything.

It is really strange times. Conservatives only clinging on to power because there is no realistic alternative and nothing forcing a GE in the short term.

Anyone feeling election withdrawal symptoms?  If so, fear not, we have the Peterborough by-election next week.

If this had been held just couple of months ago the Tories would have fancied their chances in this Labour/Tory marginal.  However, it now looks like a Labour vs Brexit party fight.  Will the Labour leadership's soft Brexit positioning deter enough of the electorate from voting for Brexit party, or will Labour's inevitable loss of remain voters to Lib Dems split the remain/less hardline leave vote enabling Brexit to win?

Farage has historically done well in the Euro and to lesser extent local elections, but has had nowhere near the same success in general or byelections.  But will this time be different given the current climate?

I see following scenarios:

Brexit majority of over 1500: Result sends shockwaves through politics.  Tory leadership contenders harden their position on Brexit, and Corbyn gets buffeted from both sides in his party reading different interpretations of the bad result - e.g. Lavery - this proves we can't ignore leave voters, whilst remain wing of party point to the votes lost to Lib Dems.  Corbyn to come under intense pressure over summer, with key cabinet member e.g. Thornberry or Starmer, making a move.  Result gives massive momentum to Brexit party, thriving on oxygen of publicity, and secures defections from a number of ERG members.

Brexit majority less than 1500: Similar to above, but Corbyn rides it out.  Mainstream 'anyone but Boris' Tory MPs hold their nerve and coalese round 1 candidate.  If Tories keep respectable vote share (e.g. near 20%) defections to Brexit party kept to just 1 or 2 ERG hotheads.

Labour majority: If Labour hold on I reckon its certainly going to be reduced majority, so if they scrape over the line it'll still count.  If so, sigh of relief for both main parties - result helps dial down some of the no-deal rhetoric in Tory leadership contest, with a more mainstream unifying figure like Hunt or Javid coming through as frontrunner.  Corbyn carries on unscathed during summer (though likely to come under pressure in autumn when Brexit deadline no. 3 nears) and Brexit party bubble deflates slightly.

Lib Dem shock win or Lib Dem 2nd place pushing Labour into 3rd: Immediate coup against Corbyn, supported by mix of soft-left (e.g. Clive Lewis) and key cabinet figures e.g. Thornberry/Starmer.  New Labour leader elected with clear 2nd referendum stance.  Change UK form alliance with Lib Dems and if prospect of no-deal supporting leader materialises for Tories, several of their MPs defect to Lib Dems.

Normally by-elections are not that significant, but given how finely balanced votes in the Commons are (remember one of the Cooper amendments ruling out No Deal passed by just 1 vote) this one could be that bit more signficant than usual for Commons arithmetic over coming months.

Let's say the Brexit Party candidate wins the seat. How will he / she vote on every issue other than Brexit? The party has no manifesto.

People can vote for whoever they want, but I don't understand how you can vote for someone to represent you when you know where they stand on almost nothing.

Brexit Party are the overwhelming favourite with the bookmakers at 2/9, with Labour 7/2. This isn't a constituency that the LDs do well in: they generally poll in Peterborough lower than their national return. It'll be between the BP and Lab - no other party have a chance. The Tories could, conceivably, lose their deposit.

I make the Brexit Party narrow favourites. Very narrow. They will have to overcome the incumbent Labour advantage, as well as the organisational structure of Labour. Labour will know where their voters are and will be able to get out a sizeable postal vote. But the LDs are really going to eat into the Labour vote. And I think it's that which will be the key factor and swing it to the BP. The BP have no sizeable threat eating in to their vote.

If Labour do lose, Corbyn really should resign (for about the 341st time), because it will underline how far Labour still are from a Parliamentary majority four years into his leadership. I wouldn't expect any major ramifications from a BP win - no defections from the Tory Party or such like - but, as the poster above indicates, it will help focus the minds of Tory leadership hopefuls as to how great the threat from the BP really is.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Let's say the Brexit Party candidate wins the seat. How will he / she vote on every issue other than Brexit? The party has no manifesto.

People can vote for whoever they want, but I don't understand how you can vote for someone to represent you when you know where they stand on almost nothing.

That's why people go to local hustings to find out where Mike Greene (the candidate in question) stands on other issues.

Peterborough, a hellhole, will go the depressing route, I’m sure.

Luke wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Or perhaps a two options of No Deal or No exit as May's Deal has already been blown out more times than a eind-sock.

If we were to have another referendum (which I highly doubt), the choices should be in my opinion.

No Brexit
No Deal.
Leave but remain in the custom union.

Never happen. Unfair options for Leave voters i.e. splitting their vote.

But reality splits the leave vote. We can't leave with and without a deal. It has to be one or the other.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But reality splits the leave vote. We can't leave with and without a deal. It has to be one or the other.

That's tough then. Problematic. The Electoral Commission would, I hope, never countenance a ballot with options that clearly split one side of the voters into two pots, when the other half can all gang up under a single option.

Personally, I think it should be:

Leave w/ no deal
Cancel A50 (or Brexit in entirety; take your pick which should be the anti-Leave option)

navyblueshorts wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But reality splits the leave vote. We can't leave with and without a deal. It has to be one or the other.

That's tough then. Problematic. The Electoral Commission would, I hope, never countenance a ballot with options that clearly split one side of the voters into two pots, when the other half can all gang up under a single option.

Personally, I think it should be:

Leave w/ no deal
Cancel A50 (or Brexit in entirety; take your pick which should be the anti-Leave option)

Well yes it could be looked at it that way. After all the EU are adamant no further discussions will take place with a new PM. That means the only sort of deal on the table is May's Deal which has been rejected by Westminster on multiple occasions. Therefore No Deal Brexit or Remain are the only viable option unless the new PM can get the EU to allow a new deal to be discussed.

You really can't have a multiple choice referendum so it would have to either no deal v cancel ...or I suppose "new deal" v cancel in the unlikely event some sort of a deal can be both negotiated with the EU and accepted by the Commons as worth putting to the people.

I do think the former option will eventually be forced on the government. Much as the hard Brexit fans may fancy jumping off the cliff I can't see the party being game to embrace it - or getting it through parliament.

But then I wouldn't have believed the country could get itself into this stupid mess in the first place if you'd asked me three years ago...

alfie wrote:You really can't have a multiple choice referendum so it would have to either no deal v cancel ...or I suppose "new deal" v cancel in the unlikely event some sort of a deal can be both negotiated with the EU and accepted by the Commons as worth putting to the people.

I do think the former option will eventually be forced on the government.  Much as the hard Brexit fans may fancy jumping off the cliff I can't see the party being game to embrace it - or getting it through parliament.

But then I wouldn't have believed the country could get itself into this stupid mess in the first place if you'd asked me three years ago...

I would.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Luke wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Or perhaps a two options of No Deal or No exit as May's Deal has already been blown out more times than a eind-sock.

If we were to have another referendum (which I highly doubt), the choices should be in my opinion.

No Brexit
No Deal.
Leave but remain in the custom union.

Never happen. Unfair options for Leave voters i.e. splitting their vote.

Fair point, maybe it should have been the original referendum questions.
Part of the problem now is both sides have dug such a hole, that there is very little chance of meeting in the middle ground.
Oh and they triggered article 50 way to soon.

Thinking more about it, it should have been the follow up question to the original question.
So I've in or out,
If out what form do you want?

Opinium.

Brexit Party 26
Labour.........22
Con..............17

Depressing stuff..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Opinium.

Brexit Party 26
Labour.........22
Con..............17

Depressing stuff..

I wouldn't depress yourself too much. The Brexit Party will do as UKIP did and flop in General Elections. Brexit Party like UKIP before it are a mere protest vote party who pick up votes from peed off Tory and Labour voters in lesser elections but when it comes to the crunch voters won't vote for Brexit Party in General Elections given that they have no policies on health, education etc etc.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Opinium.

Brexit Party 26
Labour.........22
Con..............17

Depressing stuff..

But not surprising. The Lab/Con parties have been colossal failures over the past twenty years and are clearly unfit for purpose. The Tories have missed most of the targets they've set themselves in office, whilst Labour are a pathetic opposition that offer nothing better.

Comparisons between the Brexit Party and UKIP are almost worthless now. UKIP never polled this well in Westminster elections. There was never this much distaste towards the Lab/Con parties when UKIP was at its peak. If we had a GE tomorrow, the Brexit Party could pick up 250+ seats.

At least it makes the equation even simpler and even more plain for the next Tory leader: no-deal exit from the EU, or watch that poll become reality.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Opinium.

Brexit Party 26
Labour.........22
Con..............17

Depressing stuff..

But not surprising. The Lab/Con parties have been colossal failures over the past twenty years and are clearly unfit for purpose. The Tories have missed most of the targets they've set themselves in office, whilst Labour are a pathetic opposition that offer nothing better.

Comparisons between the Brexit Party and UKIP are almost worthless now. UKIP never polled this well in Westminster elections. There was never this much distaste towards the Lab/Con parties when UKIP was at its peak. If we had a GE tomorrow, the Brexit Party could pick up 250+ seats.

At least it makes the equation even simpler and even more plain for the next Tory leader: no-deal exit from the EU, or watch that poll become reality.

Problem is - its like for Labour its not enough just not being the Tories to get into power. It is all very easy being against something, and the Brexit party may well pick up a lot of votes because there are a lot of pissed off people. But sooner or later they will have to say what they are for, and if they get people elected then those people will actually have to do the job of an MP.

I suspect that they will poll well but will do a classic Lib Dem and get a lot of 2nd places. And the more they come under the spotlight the more they will struggle. When they finally come up with a manifesto it will provide a target, and they will have to do so eventually.

Sam Gyimah the latest to join the leadership contest. Interestingly he’s the only one so far who’s out and out backing a new referendum of No deal vs No Brexit. Speaking on Sophy Ridge he made a lot of sense, but I wouldnt give him a snowballs chance in hell.

The Tory membership....70% white and ancient...

Aren't voting for Javid or Gyimah...

Average age of Tory members - 57. Labour? 53.

But we have to hear all this drivel about the Tory membership being ancient, when there's hardly any difference between the major parties.

Duty281 wrote:Average age of Tory members - 57. Labour? 53.

But we have to hear all this drivel about the Tory membership being ancient, when there's hardly any difference between the major parties.

It's all political posturing. The level of debate politically is at knuckle dragging level - and that is in the mainstream media (including the BBC).

Duty281 wrote:Average age of Tory members - 57. Labour? 53.

But we have to hear all this drivel about the Tory membership being ancient, when there's hardly any difference between the major parties.

Average age of Tory members - unknown, although there are some guesses based on different research floating around.

Seems we’ve finally got a policy from the Brexit Party as Ann Widdecome claims “science may produce an answer to homosexuality”.

Honestly can we just get these bigoted Poopie stains to Frak already? And people still vote for them.

Duty281 wrote:Average age of Tory members - 57. Labour? 53.

But we have to hear all this drivel about the Tory membership being ancient, when there's hardly any difference between the major parties.

Let us see..

1. Labour is pro immigration.....

2. BORIS is favourite with the Tory members despite insulting references containing pickaninny and comparing Muslim Women to  Letterboxes..

Drivel is in the eye of the beholder..

Samo wrote:Seems we’ve finally got a policy from the Brexit Party as Ann Widdecome claims “science may produce an answer to homosexuality”.

Honestly can we just get these bigoted Poopie stains to Frak already? And people still vote for them.

Just out of interest, do you have a link to the actual quote, in its context?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Average age of Tory members - 57. Labour? 53.

But we have to hear all this drivel about the Tory membership being ancient, when there's hardly any difference between the major parties.

Let us see..

1. Labour is pro immigration.....

2. BORIS is favourite with the Tory members despite insulting references containing pickaninny and comparing Muslim Women to  Letterboxes..

Drivel is in the eye of the beholder..

And CORBYN is favourite with the Labour members despite an anti-semitism charge sheet as long as your arm.

In response, Ms Widdecombe said: "And I also pointed out that there was a time when we thought it was quite impossible for men to become women and visa versa. The fact that we think it is now quite impossible for people to switch sexuality doesn't mean that science may not yet produce an answer at some stage.

No problems with that. Got to love the selective outrage of those who read a few headlines and choose to be offended by it. Always worth a laugh.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Average age of Tory members - 57. Labour? 53.

But we have to hear all this drivel about the Tory membership being ancient, when there's hardly any difference between the major parties.

Let us see..

1. Labour is pro immigration.....

2. BORIS is favourite with the Tory members despite insulting references containing pickaninny and comparing Muslim Women to  Letterboxes..

Drivel is in the eye of the beholder..

And CORBYN is favourite with the Labour members despite an anti-semitism charge sheet as long as your arm.

That is because most of the Labour members with any brains or conscience have left. Same process has been happening with the Tories just over a much longer period.

Duty281 wrote:In response, Ms Widdecombe said: "And I also pointed out that there was a time when we thought it was quite impossible for men to become women and visa versa. The fact that we think it is now quite impossible for people to switch sexuality doesn't mean that science may not yet produce an answer at some stage.

No problems with that. Got to love the selective outrage of those who read a few headlines and choose to be offended by it. Always worth a laugh.

She was always pretty offensive and horribly out of touch when she was an MP. Age hasn't improved her. I would have thought you of all people might have an issue with some of her views.

lostinwales wrote:

Duty281 wrote:In response, Ms Widdecombe said: "And I also pointed out that there was a time when we thought it was quite impossible for men to become women and visa versa. The fact that we think it is now quite impossible for people to switch sexuality doesn't mean that science may not yet produce an answer at some stage.

No problems with that. Got to love the selective outrage of those who read a few headlines and choose to be offended by it. Always worth a laugh.

She was always pretty offensive and horribly out of touch when she was an MP. Age hasn't improved her. I would have thought you of all people might have an issue with some of her views.

I might disagree with some of what she has said in the past, but I don't have any issue with her comments this morning.

Duty281 wrote:In response, Ms Widdecombe said: "And I also pointed out that there was a time when we thought it was quite impossible for men to become women and visa versa. The fact that we think it is now quite impossible for people to switch sexuality doesn't mean that science may not yet produce an answer at some stage.

No problems with that. Got to love the selective outrage of those who read a few headlines and choose to be offended by it. Always worth a laugh.

In response to what? Oh, thats right. Her previous comments about gay conversion therapy.

He cited an article written in 2012 by Ms Widdecombe, a former Strictly Come Dancing contestant.

In the piece, she wrote: "The unhappy homosexual should, according to gay activists, be denied any chance whatever to investigate any possibility of seeing if he can be helped to become heterosexual."

Paterson said: "I don't even need to ask you whether or not that is still your view. The fact that you expressed it means that plenty of people would not want to share a platform with you."

Lets not pretend this is anything but a continuation of her vile anti-LGBT views shall we?

Take your pick.....and good luck with it !!!

Yougov...
Lib Dems 24
Brexit Party 22

Opinium
Brexit Party 26
Labour 22

Delta
Labour 26
Brexit Party 24