Wales world cup odds

Just been checking out all the odds for the forthcoming world cup. Itspretty much as expected, although I reckon there's a little bit of value in group D(Wales group).
Now I'm not massively optimistic about wales' chances under warren gatland and that's probably why I think there's a bit of value, but Wales are 1/7 to get into the quarters, which I can't believe anybody would put a bean on. However this makes them 9/2 not to qualify, which has got to be worth a few quid. Also Samoa are 7/1 and fiji 9/1 to qualify. In which case you could bet on them both to qualify.
I'm not saying Wales won't make the quarters, but Samoa and Fiji are definateky worth a punt, especially at these odds especially given wales' recent performances against these 2 nations and with the games on neutral grounds and possibly more support for the south sea islanders it's gonna be fascinating!

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/2011-world-cup/rugby-world-cup/winner

Theres more of a chance of NZ winning the thing.



Thats what the odds were last time i checked.

Im not sure their making those odds on comparative strength but more about the amount of damage Wales could potentially take. If were tackling for 80 minutes against a fired up South Africa you have to wonder how much Wales can have left in the tank for Samoa and Fiji.
Imagine if Rees gets a bad injury early on in the South Africa game and we have to continue the rest of the tournament with Bennett as our hooker!

So you'd be betting against your own nation?

It's a good way of paying for drowning your sorrows

MBTGOG wrote:So you'd be betting against your own nation?

I think Wales can make the quarters but no further. Fiji and Samoa are ranked above Italy and just below Scotland but their games against the traditional big countries are skewed, the bigger teams almost always play reserve squads out against them so they go down to close defeats or even sneak a draw.
It seems the Islanders always have the most romantic angles to work from:
They live in small islands, though Fiji (18,272km2) is about the size as Wales (20,779 km2)!
They have a small population, though Fiji (36,030) has only a slightly smaller player base than Wales (50557), This of course excludes the many thousands of New Zealanders with Fijian ancestry, whom they can potentially pick from as well!
They have no money, even though any half decent islander is recruited into a New Zealand academy very early on meaning they in fact have a better rugby education than most players in the World! Then these players go all over the World earning big money especially in Europe, Japan and Super 15 teams!
I like the islanders as much as anyone else but the facts dont match the romance we like to speak about them!
It's much more fun to say their a small island on the other side of the world with a small population and it's so wonderful their part of this event... I'd like to add, they should be doing well, most of their team is professional, they are genetically more suited to rugby than europeans and asians, most of their players have come through the New Zealand academy system, and they can trawl round New Zealand for players with Fijian ancestry too!

Alum. I agree with what you're saying which is why the odds are so hood. To qualify,
Wales 1/7
Samoa 7/1
Fiji 9/1

A £10 bet on each team would win you,
Wales £1.40 ish
Samoa £70
Fiji £90
Plus your stake.

And yes I would bet against my own country. I still regret not puting on a bet when Fiji beat wales in the last WC. As someone said it helps to drown your sorrows. I've had a won many bets backing Wales. Sometimes, especially with rugby it pays to look at where the value is. We could all back new Zealand, but you'll probably win enough money for a packet of dry roasted nuts with your pint!

Thanks man of Gwent!

Either £20 on Fiji, or 10, 10 split between them and Samoa hmm.

CauCau and Nacewa aren't playing for Fiji if im correct, and New Zealand have pillaged the rest of their squad. Samoa on the other hand have the Tuilagi's - 5 of them isnt there?!

One of them can beat Wales, but then again only ones going to win between those two when they face off. Dodgy, even if Wales lose to one of them they'll batter the other team in the group so much they'd get by on points difference. Blah. Samoa it is.

DaDubs1 wrote:Blah. Samoa it is.

No dont bet for them, watch the last Wales vs Samoa game again...
The should of been stuffed by Wales, they were stuffed by France and also by Italy.
They had a mediocre Pacific Nations championship last year, including a 23-31 home loss to Japan!
Then they lost to England, Ireland and Scotland in their November summer tour!
The smart Money is on Fiji, especially since you wonder how much Wales will have left after playing South Africa and Samoa.

Wales have Nambia before they face Fiji, so they will be able to rest some of their main players.

I think Wales will have to much for Samoa and with a rested squad there is little chance of an upset against Fiji, especially with the new welsh forwards...

wales606 wrote:Wales have Nambia before they face Fiji, so they will be able to rest some of their main players.

I think Wales will have to much for Samoa and with a rested squad there is little chance of an upset against Fiji, especially with the new welsh forwards...

It is going to be very interesting to see what Gatland is going to do, personally I wouldnt risk anyone we really cant replace easily. I wouldnt pick Matthew Rees against South Arfice because heaven forbid he were to get injured and we have to play Samoa and Fiji without a lineout when Huw Bennett is playing.
I also wouldnt play Adam Jones first up either, hes a talisman for us and we will need a solid scrum for Samoa and Fiji. I would be happy to risk Alun-Wyn Jones however because I think a 6'9" 20 stone 4lbs Luke Charteris would be very useful against the Islanders, especially since their lineouts tend to be very, very dodgy! I'd pair him with Bradley Davies because he wont take any messing around off the Islanders either, he will get stuck in to them.

I think we also have to look after Mike Phillips, I'm certain Gatland is sticking with him simply because he wont Cat out and throw hospital passes. He will get stuck in, take responsibility and give as good as he gets. One of the reasons we fair so badly against Island sides is because we pick weak players who get frightened of their tackling and look to get rid of the ball before their tackled, the more hard men we have to fight them head on the more chance we have.

AlynDavies, I completely disagree,

We should play our full team against SA, resting players for that game would suggest a complete lack of ambition.

We will have two chances at reaching the quarters, topping the group by beating SA (although we would then have to beat Ireland) or beating Aus in the Quarters.

We can only rest players against Nambia in this group.

The last time Wales played Samoa was in november 2009 and if one of their players didn't have a foot shaped lke a toblerone, he would have scored and won the game for Samoa. If I remember rightly, he had the try line at his mercy, but hacked it over the touch line. It was a bit of an Andy cole finish. The last time we played Fiji, we drew. You can't forget that both of these games were played at the millennium and would have to think that both Samoa and Fiji will want to make a big impression at a WC down under.
Wales have never found these games easy and as usual our preparation hasn't been great.

wales606 wrote:AlynDavies, I completely disagree,

We should play our full team against SA, resting players for that game would suggest a complete lack of ambition.

We will have two chances at reaching the quarters, topping the group by beating SA (although we would then have to beat Ireland) or beating Aus in the Quarters.

We can only rest players against Nambia in this group.

Were not going to beat South Africa on current form. The best we can hope is an honourable defeat and anyone we cant replace in a like for like capacity shoulnt be risked in a game that we start as underdogs in. keep it close against South Africe, scrape past Samoa and Fiji, and lets the seconds have a run out against Namibia seconds and then a fighting all out effort against Australia in the Quarters before coming back to Wales.

I don't see resting players being much of a issue when there is a week in between pool matches
Even after the final pool game against Fiji there is six days untill the quaters.

manofgwent wrote:The last time Wales played Samoa was in november 2009 and if one of their players didn't have a foot shaped lke a toblerone, he would have scored and won the game for Samoa. If I remember rightly, he had the try line at his mercy, but hacked it over the touch line. It was a bit of an Andy cole finish. The last time we played Fiji, we drew. You can't forget that both of these games were played at the millennium and would have to think that both Samoa and Fiji will want to make a big impression at a WC down under.
Wales have never found these games easy and as usual our preparation hasn't been great.

Yes but Samoa had no business being within 30 points of us at that point if you watch the game again (I have provided a stream to it earlier on). You can clearly see a Welsh second string pretty much all over them for 70 minutes. bad play from Biggar, picky refereeing and lack of clinical finishing cost us a lot of points.
The Fiji draw isnt worth mentioning as I stated Biggar at fly Half, Jonathan Thomas at No8, Deiniol Jones and Ian gough at Lock, Rees at Scrum Half, Bennett as hooker, jesus it wasnt Wales it was Clowns R' Us in that game.

Cymroglan wrote:I don't see resting players being much of a issue when there is a week in between pool matches
Even after the final pool game against Namibia there is six days untill the quaters.

10/09 - Fiji - Namibia
11/09 - South Africa - Wales
14/09 - Samoa - Namibia (4)
17/09 - South Africa (6) - Fiji (7)
18/09 - Wales (7) - Samoa (4)
22/09 - South Africa (5) - Namibia (8.)
25/09 - Fiji (8.) - Samoa (7)
26/09 - Wales (8.) - Namibia (4)
30/09 - South Africa (8.) - Samoa (5)
02/10 - Wales (6) - Fiji (7)
08/10 - Winner C (Australia 7) - Runner-up D (Wales 6)

Here's the pool games and dates, we have Fiji last. Numbers in brackets are days between last game.

Wales may not have been near full strength in those last 2 internationals, but were Fiji and Samoa?

AlynDavies wrote:
Yes but Samoa had no business being within 30 points of us at that point if you watch the game again (I have provided a stream to it earlier on). You can clearly see a Welsh second string pretty much all over them for 70 minutes.

I think this post should be referred to the 'arrogance' thread

SafeAsMilk wrote:I think this post should be referred to the 'arrogance' thread

http://rugby.opticon.hu/meccsek/091113Welsz-Szamoa.mp4

Watch the game there.
Wales were all over them for 70 minutes.

and still should have lost. How worrying!