Argentina to Win the Rugby Championship?

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Something seems to be brewing in Argentina. The Jaguares are currently top of their conference in Super Rugby with 8 wins from 13 games including some good wins away in SA, NZ and Aus. They are 2nd in the overall standings with a real chance of hosting a quarter final in Argentina for the first time ever. Their form is definitely peaking given that most of their five losses came at the start of the season and they have won 6 of their last 7 games, a narrow loss away to the highlanders being their one recent loss.

Given that New Zealand have a recent habit of not winning the Rugby Championship held in a world cup year (Australia won the last two) is it Argentina's chance to shine being the form super rugby side? The form guide would probably suggest that this years championship is more than likely going to be one of the more hotly contested championships in recent memory so why not Argentina? I suspect their super rugby form will give them renewed belief that they can challenge the other SANZAAR sides and away wins might help them achieve some consistency on the road.

You also know you are good when people like Phil Kearns start to complain about the Jaguares basically being an international side. Kearns also fears that this gives them a huge advantage at the RWC, does it? Probably.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/113139439/jaguares-coach-gonzalo-quesada-hits-back-at-phil-kearns-comments-on-super-rugby-inclusion

SA who claimed a good away win in NZ and who are probably moving in the right direction despite a desperate win loss ratio for 2018 will probably be contenders too albeit more than likely without captain Kolisi who has picked up a fairly serious injury. New Zealand of course are almost always favorites have picked up a few losses in recent years and have some selection quandaries. Who to pick in the back row, is Aaron Smith still their number one guy at 9 and who is Barrett's back up? This particular debate may have gained another dimension as the talented but still relatively inexperienced Mo'unga is subject to some controversy following a recent tour to SA. As usual Australia appear to be a sinking ship which probably means they will be contenders for everything.

Anyway long story short, I knows its still a couple of months out but I would like to call on our resident Kiwis to provide their expert opinions and anyone else why enjoys the rugby championship to chime in and declare who do you think will come 1st to last in this years championship and why? Will it be Los Pumas time to shine?

Go raibh mile maith agaibh.
Is mise le meas,
Collapse.

Yeah Jaguares

You think if the final is in Buenos Aires they could do it.

Be great for Argentinian rugby if they can.

maestegmafia wrote:It’s a deserved result getting this far but I would be surprised if they can get further this year

Jaguares have already won v the Brumbies at home. I think they will make it to the final.

maestegmafia wrote:Yeah Jaguares

You think if the final is in Buenos Aires they could do it.

Be great for Argentinian rugby if they can.  

They can win wherever it is, bar probably christchurch. They will very likely beat the Brumbies. They beat the Hurricanes in Wellington a month ago though barrett, coles were out, theyre full strength now...as are the jaguares. So a BA final would be close.

Its unlikely anyone will beat the saders at home. No one has in a knockout match, 22 from 22, the last four all thrashings. Always a first but Robertsons got this saders squad humming when they need it and they know how to win finals.

I suspect the jaguares and the pumas will come close to winning super rugby and the rugby championship. I wonder will the Jaguares 10 overtake Sanchez for the Argentina 10 position.

Yes he’s played and run things very well. Where’s Sanchez? Class act

Stade Francais I think

Oh, of course, where the real rugby is

For Argentinians maybe as before they had professional teams their players tended to end up in French teams. Some still are there.

I think Argentina owe at least some of their success internationally in the past to their players being involved with Pro teams in France.

Collapse2005 wrote:For Argentinians maybe as before they had professional teams their players tended to end up in French teams. Some still are there.

When Argentina finished 3rd in the 2007 World Cup, only 7 players were affiliated with clubs in Argentina. 16 were in France, 6 in England, 1 in Ireland (Felipe Contepomi being a significant "one"), and 1 in Italy. Their success was definitely built on a solid core playing in the North. Joiniing the Rugby Championship and Super Rugby has brought benefits but it has also coincided with the decline of traditional scrum strength. Not really sure why that should have happened, as SANZAAR sides re-emphasized scrummaging, and NZ has oen of the best in the world.

The closeness of most of the top ten nations at this World Cup will make it interesting. Super Rugby has been good so far. I wonder whether we will see anything stella before the RWC kicks off?

Or will everyone in the Rugby Championship keep their cards close their best? I imagine that most teams will trial a few peripheral players but not enough to be a weakness.

Rugby Fan wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:For Argentinians maybe as before they had professional teams their players tended to end up in French teams. Some still are there.

When Argentina finished 3rd in the 2007 World Cup, only 7 players were affiliated with clubs in Argentina. 16 were in France, 6 in England, 1 in Ireland (Felipe Contepomi being a significant "one"), and 1 in Italy. Their success was definitely built on a solid core playing in the North. Joiniing the Rugby Championship and Super Rugby has brought benefits but it has also coincided with the decline of traditional scrum strength. Not really sure why that should have happened, as SANZAAR sides re-emphasized scrummaging, and NZ has oen of the best in the world.

Great point, and it’s been an issue raised here often. Obvious reason is scrum strength alone isn’t as important in SH is it in the north, mobility and skills rate higher, something argie have moved more towards and personally I think suits their Latin nature better. They spent the first couple of seasons trying to win through rolling mauls!

Pre professionalism the Pumas a la Porta etc were far more expressive and less pack dominant.

Argie may have learnt how to cope with northern sides, a la Ireland in 2015, but they have finished last here, every year. Only now through the Jaguares have they been able to compete with the SH game, and that with weaker packs, so go figure. The north may have taught them something, but it didn’t teach them how to play South American rugby.

I don’t think that they got so far in 07 due to where the players played their rugby more because a great generation started coming through. Luckily Argentina have used that generation to inspire others and now they are building reasonable strength and depth.

Being able to see their star players play against some of the best teams, in super rugby, at home is only going to build the game more.

There under 20s were really good this year.

Yes it’s now starting to get a bit fragmented with some in the north and south. For a nation with one true pro team they’ve done awfully well and in short time have brought that team to the top of SH SR rugby. That is no mean feat. I assume players like Sanchez will be available Cup time, though even he has competition from the jags 10, one of the best 10s in the comp. Runs the play well as well.

Great post! yes the Jaguares have had a stormer this season and to be in their first Semi is a great achievement, especially in a RWC year. If they can overcome the Brumbies for a place in the final that would be a terrific achievement.

As for Argentina, I would like to see them push England and France really hard in the RWC. Considering how both Fra and Eng have had some big slip ups so far this year, Argentina having a solid Rugby Championship could be a big statement of intent.

I don't think Arg will win it but I think they will have their best tournament. SA and Aus look likely to be raising their game and NZ are always brilliant. Can't wait for it to start really, it's going to be fierce.

Taylorman wrote:Yes it’s now starting to get a bit fragmented with some in the north and south. For a nation with one true pro team they’ve done awfully well and in short time have brought that team to the top of SH SR rugby. That is no mean feat. I assume players like Sanchez will be available Cup time, though even he has competition from the jags 10, one of the best 10s in the comp. Runs the play well as well.

People say they only have one pro team and its true but there are a lot of rugby clubs and lots of members all over the country. Its a popular enough game and the facilities are decent.

It is ready for further pro growth from what I have seen, albeit super rugby attendances need to improve a bit.

Yes Oz via Phil Kearns especially think they shouldnt be in it being 'Argentina' (but really cos they beat his beloved Waratahs) and pressure seems to be on to put a second team up.

The northerns might be tempted to come back for that if they see Argie competing well here.

RC results are a almost negligible this year. Most sides are likely to focus on home matches and give the seconds the tour matches, if even to avoid injuries to A's.

Argie last in 2015 didnt hinder their world cup one bit.

Good to know the RC doesnt count this year, assume that applies to 6 nations too?

Nah, the proximity of the RC to the World cup makes things a bit more complex. Players returning from injury need the matches before the tournament and some that have played all year can get a well earned rest by missing out the away matches. The 6N doesnt have that in the same way.

So much of it is about managing players, getting balance across the likely world cup squad.

Obviously they want to win the matches, its just the selection for each test might be different from other years with one eye on the world cup.

You may have a fair argument somewhere in there albeit the 6 nations wont matter much to me if the boys in green make the semis and beyond.

Collapse2005 wrote:You may have a fair argument somewhere in there albeit the 6 nations wont matter much to me if the boys in green make the semis and beyond.

Understandable, but the timing means they can still compete 100% in the 6N in feb and the world cup in September.

The RC is too close to the Wcup so concessions need to be made. Your sides wont be going all out to win the friendlys either for the same reason.

Already theres talk of Ioane at 10 for the highlanders taking the away matches, on debut. With mo’unga and barrett Ioane wont be going to the WCup.

Anyway, Jags won as expected, though a bit easier than I thought. Think Saders will be similar tonight. Too strong across the side and bench.

But you never know.

Taylorman wrote:Your sides wont be going all out to win the friendlys either

There's not so much at stake as in a Six Nations but they are still capped matches, and results count to World Rankings. In 2011, Morgan Stoddart broke his leg in a warm-up game against England, and missed the tournament. The same year, David Wallace suffered a knee injury in a warm-up against England which not only put him out of the tournament, it effectively ended his career.

Jaguares were clinical, Brumbies though were appallingly error strewn, so many things went wrong, the bounce of the ball never went their way.

Great win by the Jaguares. Good crowd at the game too. I wouldnt be surprised if the Jaguares won the final.

They were so pumped up for that game.

You can get great odds on argentina winning the RWC now. Think they are a better bet than Oz and SA at this stage though they definitely need to work in their scrum.

Taylorman wrote:Nah, the proximity of the RC to the World cup makes things a bit more complex. Players returning from injury need the matches before the tournament and some that have played all year can get a well earned rest by missing out the away matches. The 6N doesnt have that in the same way.

So much of it is about managing players, getting balance across the likely world cup squad.

Obviously they want to win the matches, its just the selection for each test might be different from other years with one eye on the world cup.

Yeah we could do with a more sensible global schedule right

Its pretty certain that the RC will be affected this year, not quite to the same extent that the NH domestic season is affected after a world cup or their summer tours a joke in a Lions year but I very much agree that there will be an eye on team management and reducing travel hours.
The idea that the friendlys in the NH are played at full intensity because someone got hurt in a warm is a bit of a leap too. And regardless of the intensity they are absolutely played with scratch experimental sides, the standard pattern is England and Wales put their first and second choice players out in the opposing fixtures. Results do not act as a true indicator of the strength of the sides come the world cup.

It'll still be a decent barometer of whether Argentina really have improved that much or not. Talk of them being a threat at the world cup based on a successful club beating the diluted talent of NZ teams is a touch premature to me. Argentina have been so rank awful for the past couple of years, its hard to see how they can suddenly got from being rank 10th to a world cup contender without playing a game.
Jagures had a decent season and qualified for the knock outs in 2018, Argentina got beat by Wales and Scotland at home and lost all but one game in the RC. They also lost all the Autmun Internationals.
Theres not been a positive correlation between the Jagures continued rise in Super rugby and Argentinas performances, if anything its been the opposite.

Its hard to imagine of course that results will be as bad as they have been over the past couple of years for Argentina, and I do expect them (in line with Taylormans comments) to get some wins in the RC against weakened teams.
They should have improved to some extent too, Im not writing that off completely but Im a touch sceptical about how a team can suddenly be a WC threat when they havent been near the top for a decade and have had two really bad years in a row. Even a good RC should be taken with a pinch of salt.
I expect Argentina to be better than their current world ranking, but top 4? Thats a leap.

World cup year is different for SH sides with so many in the NH, Argie werent great prior to 2015 but they cruised into the semis. theres a greater resolve across the SH sides to perform in World cup year. Resources are more available and for Argie theyve developed a more rounded game than the NH influenced forward oriented sides of the last twenty years due to most players playing in the north. its taking a while but they are certainly improving, and they have some brilliant players who are genuine international class. Matera, Creedy, Bofilli, Sanchez, Lavanini and several others.

Jags have now won 9 from the last 10 from memory, vs sides across all 3 SH countries, 4 including the SWolves.

Sure they have to take it to test level with practically the one club side plus a few others but they are primed to surprise the NH sides in pool play and the potential quarter with Wales, which must be treated as a potential banana skin match.

in saying that I cant see anyone getting close to this Saders side, full strength and way to strong in the tight five, and outside backs, bench. faaaar too good.

Happy to eat my words if they lose, or even get run close.

And we're off....

Taylorman wrote:in saying that I cant see anyone getting close to this Saders side, full strength and way to strong in the tight five, and outside backs, bench. faaaar too good.

Happy to eat my words if they lose, or even get run close.

For such a good tight five they have creaked a bit in the scrum in this game.

Good game. Dont think the Crusaders are as good as they are made out to be at least I feel they are more beatable than they were last year. Their pack wasnt as dominant as they should have been. All odds against the Jaguares but I reckon they will give them a good game.

There will always be a bang of domestic abuse off Reece but the pick up for his try was tasty. I suspect you can do anything you want though in NZ if you if you can score tries like that.

Saders looked fallible second half when the canes came at them, mysteriously kicking away everything first half. Beaudy and Mo’unga were class second half, as was Perenara. Reece, Savea, Laumape and Coles went well.

Agree re the pack, though they dominated the first half. Second half was a completely different game, canes stepped up.

On that Jags have a very good chance, but records need to be broken where the saders are concerned. 31 matches without a loss at home, 23 years, never lost a home playoff.

Think we are in fir a tight final.

Agree re Perenara. For me he is NZs best 9 for sure.

He’ll remain behind Smith for now, especially with a likely speedy backline of guys like ALB, Reiko, Reece etc are out wide, his pass has been key to the ABs width for some time now, and TJP is ideal coming on when it opens up, his running and support play top notch.

We have similar battles going on at hooker with Cokes and Taylor, 10 with beaudy and Mo’unga, but theyre good problems to have, and ensure great benches.

Taylorman wrote:He’ll remain behind Smith for now, especially with a likely speedy backline of guys like ALB, Reiko, Reece etc are out wide, his pass has been key to the ABs width for some time now, and TJP is ideal coming on when it opens up, his running and support play top notch.

We have similar battles going on at hooker with Cokes and Taylor, 10 with beaudy and Mo’unga, but theyre good problems to have, and ensure great benches.

Well Smith might fit the game plan more but I think TJ is a better alm round 9.

This tends to happen around this time often, tjp looks better at SRugby time than Smith.

But when it hits the tighter marking of test matches, Smith always clears out on TJP, who finds himself with less space in tests. Smith has the better starting pressure game at the top level, TJP more effective when it opens up, as happened last night. Seen it many a year, those who back TJP around now, always backpeddle when the real stuff starts. Besides, TJP is the far better bench guy.

Smith and TJ, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in world rugby. Both would waltz into any other team.

ebop wrote:Smith and TJ, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in world rugby. Both would waltz into any other team.

Nah, Smith wouldnt get into the Ireland team at all in my view. Murray is a better player. TJ might.

Smith looks fine when the ABs are motoring but average when their opponent is dominating in particaular the forwards. TJ for me looks good even when his forward pack are getting dominated ala the Hurricances.

Collapse2005 wrote:

ebop wrote:Smith and TJ, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in world rugby. Both would waltz into any other team.

Nah, Smith wouldnt get into the Ireland team at all. Murray is a better player. TJ might.

Smith looks fine when the ABs are motoring but average when their opponent is dominating in particaular the forwards. TJ for me looks good even when his forward pack are getting dominated ala the Hurricances.

Smith would be wasted on Ireland so you’re probably right. He’d be too dynamic and not robotic enough to fit into the Irish system. Sexton would have a fit if he had to play off a live wire like Smith and do anything more than a telegraphed wrap around or chase Murray box kicks. Guns, can you name a better 1-2 punch at 9?

Yeah it used to be Rhys Webb and Gareth Davies when they were playing together.

mikey_dragon wrote:Yeah it used to be Rhys Webb and Gareth Davies when they were playing together.

Tomos Willams could well be our man for the RWC. With Webb unavailable Davies and Williams are a pretty useful pair of options.

Such a shame Webb went to France

ebop wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

ebop wrote:Smith and TJ, there’s not a better 1-2 punch in world rugby. Both would waltz into any other team.

Nah, Smith wouldnt get into the Ireland team at all. Murray is a better player. TJ might.

Smith looks fine when the ABs are motoring but average when their opponent is dominating in particaular the forwards. TJ for me looks good even when his forward pack are getting dominated ala the Hurricances.

Smith would be wasted on Ireland so you’re probably right. He’d be too dynamic and not robotic enough to fit into the Irish system. Sexton would have a fit if he had to play off a live wire like Smith and do anything more than a telegraphed wrap around or chase Murray box kicks. Guns, can you name a better 1-2 punch at 9?

Yeah Smiths strength is his pass, and at times, his running. He would be completely wasted on Ireland who dont look to width as a way to win....at all, or until theyre clear.

They like their enemy in close, and like to apply pressure rather than create. As do most sides, but not to the extent Ireland does. Thats why their limited gameplan wont get near winning a world cup. It would if they dominated allcomers with it, but they arent currently. Others have picked them apart.

You need to combat different styles with variation.

England have a bit more of that and have higher skill levels generally. Wales have variety, and a good balance, but may lack clout in the knockouts. Another who seem to have made their run early, after both England and Ireland had their runs, then fell off. England however, look ready for a second go. Ireland are regrouping and not there yet, Wales may have peaked several matches too early, and probably learned little from the 6N. Thats not a good thing, with bigger fish out there.

Yeah he's so good he wouldn't be able to play with Ireland, do you have any understanding of the contradiction there.

Great confidence from Los Jaguares staff as their team went out to their semi

http://www.balls.ie/rugby/super-rugbys-jaguares-pre-game-tunnel-ritual-just-class-413234

The words of the song are basically we dont care what everyone says about you we will always follow you, you are champions.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Yeah he's so good he wouldn't be able to play with Ireland, do you  have any understanding of the contradiction there.

Yes I do, and explained that contradiction fully. Perenara would go better with Ireland because he suits the game better. Murray would be a rank failure with the ABs cos he can’t pass to save himself and we don’t run our game from 9 and pander only to our forwards as you do, or at least Ireland does.

Smith is a certain type of player that suits a fast running wide game, because he provides the best possible platform for a fast and wide game.

Murray, and Perenara, and why he appeals more to NHers, like physicality in a 9, like the huddle and bustle of contact, running with the ball. Smiths about slick long passing to get the backs away, all day if he has to.

He’s actually more in the Murray mode of box kicking than Perenara when he needs to be as well, Perenara doesn’t kick as much.

I think TJ and Murray would probably make their way into any team albeit Murrays form this year hasnt been great. He would probably still get selected.

Smith hasnt been great in his last few games v Ireland because he tends to be quiet when the AB pack is getting dominated. Thats why I dont rate him as highly as others.

Collapse2005 wrote:I think TJ and Murray would probably make their way into any team albeit Murrays form this year hasnt been great. He would probably still get selected.

Smith hasnt been great in his last few games v Ireland because he tends to be quiet when the AB pack is getting dominated. Thats why I dont rate him as highly as others.

To be fair Murray had had a pretty awful injury to recover from.

Taylorman wrote:

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Yeah he's so good he wouldn't be able to play with Ireland, do you  have any understanding of the contradiction there.

Yes I do, and explained that contradiction fully. Perenara would go better with Ireland because he suits the game better. Murray would be a rank failure with the ABs cos he can’t pass to save himself and we don’t run our game from 9 and pander only to our forwards as you do, or at least Ireland does.

Smith is a certain type of player that suits a fast running wide game, because he provides the best possible platform for a fast and wide game.

Murray, and Perenara, and why he appeals more to NHers, like physicality in a 9, like the huddle and bustle of contact, running with the ball. Smiths about slick long passing to get the backs away, all day if he has to.

He’s actually more in the Murray mode of box kicking than Perenara when he needs to be as well, Perenara doesn’t kick as much.

You might have explained it but your reasoning is just terrible. You obviously don't watch the game here at all as basically every utterance you make about the Irish players is miles off reality.

Taylorman wrote:...Murray would be a rank failure with the ABs cos he can’t pass to save himself and we don’t run our game from 9 and pander only to our forwards...

That rings false when Justin Marshall is regarded as an All Black great, and I've even seen him selected in an all-time New Zealand XV, ahead of the likes of Going and Loveridge. In the modern game, New Zealand have often kicked more than the average international side but it hasn't always felt like that, since the kicks have usually been meaningful. Strikes me Murray's ability in that regard would be highly valued.

You have to be kidding. NZ fans have always been critical of Marshalls passing game and it was a huge relief when Smith came along and was able to get the backs away.

Marshalls time with the AB's coincided with a very poor period in AB rugby at a time when we had some very good backs but alas, poor forwards. So while he may have been one of the best half backs we've had, thats primarily because we havent been strong in that area. Sid Going, Laidiaw, Dave Loveridge and Graeme Bachop, the last three very good passers are it since the 60's.

Marshall was more similar to Murray, ran well and tackled better but a shocking pass. Alls the pity because over his period the backs were stronger, having to toil with the Taine Randalls, Rueben Thornes of the day.

Smith has been a godsend to AB rugby and its showed.

Murray might play well himself with the AB's but the AB's would have to change their gameplan dramatically to accommodate him, his passing average for international 9's at best.

...I'm not saying Marshall wasn't a great player, he was, but he highlighted the fact that we werent getting the ball fast enough to our backs to benefit from quick ball, so we played to his strengths more. Kelleher had a far better pass but in all honesty was a bit of a head case otherwise.

So we have Marshall, Perenara, Murray as similar types but far prefer Smith simply because he complements the gameplan more.

In saying that, Perenara better complements it with 20 to go, when finding gaps around tiring bodies, and supporting runners works with looser defensive lines.