Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Soft thread split, hard thread split, no-deal thread split. Who gives a sh!t as long as we get a thread split by the 15:35 deadline.

Pr4wn wrote:Ah, those polls that you've rubbished so many times before when it suited your agenda?

1) I don't support Boris Johnson or the Tory Party. I don't want Boris Johnson to be PM. I don't want the Tory Party to be in office. I'm not voting for them.
2) I don't recall ever 'rubbishing' polls. Indeed, I like polls more than most on here (except Truss, perhaps).

Nobody likes polls more than Truss

Duty281 wrote:Leading in the polls, leading in the 'Boris v Corbyn' polls, would likely win an outright majority if an election were held tomorrow...Boris is far from desperate.

I've also seen the BBC, Sky News, Channel 4, Guardian and the Times all question where the money is coming from for Johnson's pledges...Truss can't be looking too hard at the MSM.

Johnson has the worst ratings of any new PM in history....A lot worse than when May called GE17..

As for the polls....Most leads are within the MoE..

Saying that I wouldn't be surprised to see a Johnson majority..

UK was stupid enough to vote for Brexit.

Ratings might matter in US presidential elections but matter far less in the UK.

I like the quote from here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49352760

"Every central bank around the world is trying to prop up economies and every politician around the world is trying to destroy economies."

I do believe there is a path for the Tories to get a majority in the next election.

The most recent polls average out to around 30% Tories, 25% Labour, 18% Lib Dem, 15% Brexit Party.
Boris calls an election to take place on October 31st, and manages to secure a No Deal Brexit on election day itself. The disruption caused by No Deal Brexit won't become clear till after the polls have closed.
Most of the 15% Brexit Party vote would go to the Tories if there was a No Deal Brexit. I suspect they would end up on 40% or so (like they achieved in 2017). Labour and Lib Dem would still split the Remain vote. Boris majority.

The problem is, what would happen next? No Deal is an economic catastrophe, and a Tory majority coinciding with a recession would permanently destroy the Tory brand of economic competence. As Boris advocated Brexit and brought on No Deal, when the 'scare stories' do come true, he will shoulder all the blame.
If Boris then u-turns and signs an agreement similar to May's WA during the economic collapse, he will be called a traitor by hard core Brexiters who would still blame the UK's demise as the fault of Remoaners.
So Boris has really set himself up to be f*cked whatever happens. He's probably secretly hoping parliament stops no deal so he has someone else to blame.

Fixed term Parliaments means he needs 2/3 of the house for a GE..

Labour wouldn't agree to that date..

I don't believe the Tories would get 40% either....Brexit Party has plenty of Labour leavers in it and Farage got 13% in 2015..

Also if you were against No deal why would you vote Lib Dem in a Con v Lab marginal or vice versa.

Johnson is 3/1 against to win a majority for a reason.

But I could see it happening....But I'm not sure what will happen..

The last GE was supposed to be a Brexit one..

Will the kids vote is Johnson's biggest worry ????

These pre-GE polls are saying no...Like last time !!!

Lib Dems showing why I could never vote for them...

No deal will destroy this Country and bring Armageddon apparently...But they can't put Corbyn in power for a month to stop it..

Silly politicking.

I think the argument is that it might be better if it was someone as neutral / non-polarising as possible to lead any temporary unity government - the father of the house, for example, or at least a senior MP.

If it's a cross-party thing, maybe it's right that no party leader takes the helm.

Alternatively, needs must, and just sort yourselves out!

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Lib Dems showing why I could never vote for them...

No deal will destroy this Country and bring Armageddon apparently...But they can't put Corbyn in power for a month to stop it..

Silly politicking.

So do something entirely undemocratic?

To block a no-deal Brexit is not to block Brexit itself. It's to rule out an unnecessarily (and unacceptably) damaging form of Brexit.

In 2016 we voted to leave the EU - that was the 'what'. The country was never asked about the 'how'. We have elected representatives for that.

Ultimately, though, we will be leaving with a 'no-deal' exit, which has looked the most likely scenario for almost a year and is now a near-certainty.

The opposition to this 'no-deal' in Parliament have had numerous chances to alter this, most notably the withdrawal agreement, but they've failed to unify and vote through an alternative course of action and now they've practically run out of time.

Corbyn's cross-party effort isn't in anyway serious, otherwise he wouldn't have done it during the parliamentary recess right at the last knockings. It's just a token effort to try and appease the dissenters in his party.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I think the argument is that it might be better if it was someone as neutral / non-polarising as possible to lead any temporary unity government - the father of the house, for example, or at least a senior MP.

If it's a cross-party thing, maybe it's right that no party leader takes the helm.

Alternatively, needs must, and just sort yourselves out!

yeah it's not they wont work with Labour, they would rather the temporary PM be someone who is obviously temporary. Both playing some political games here.

should also be pointed out the greens and plaid cymru want a referendum before a snap election and and the SNP have only endorsed backing a no confidence vote

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I think the argument is that it might be better if it was someone as neutral / non-polarising as possible to lead any temporary unity government - the father of the house, for example, or at least a senior MP.

If it's a cross-party thing, maybe it's right that no party leader takes the helm.

Alternatively, needs must, and just sort yourselves out!

It's only for a month before an Election...

I get they wouldn't want Corbyn in fulltime.

Can't say the UK is facing Armageddon and then say but it's okay because we won't have a temporary Corbyn Govt.

Forcing Johnson out would be the worst possible thing for the remainers to do, a general election would follow and the leave vote will unite and ensure he returns to power with a strong majority which then makes no deal even more likely.

It is all looking very messy politically. I think they should raise a statue to David Cameron for making all this possible. I think most people don't have the time or the information to work out exactly what everything means and what exactly is going on - but can tell that it is quite a diabolical mess.

I see Duty has landed his dream opportunity.

superflyweight wrote:

I see Duty has landed his dream opportunity.

Michael Ogle. Sounds like the name of a character from Carry on Girls.

Kantar..

Con 42
Lab 28
Lib  15

Depressing poll....Gives the racist...misogynistic bigot an 80 to 100 majority.

Cleaned up all the Farage vote with this pollster..

Scary stuff....Be a recession soon and this village idiot could well be in control of it.

Definitely an Election coming...The reporting on Johnson's visits with Macron and Merkel compared to the actual transcripts is alarmingly fake..

He showed them !!!...But the deal isn't changing...

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Kantar..

Con 42
Lab 28
Lib  15

Depressing poll....Gives the racist...misogynistic bigot an 80 to 100 majority.

Cleaned up all the Farage vote with this pollster..

Scary stuff....Be a recession soon and this village idiot could well be in control of it.

He is not racist or misogynist - but people can't avoid demonising people they don't like - in real life or in politics.  It results in childish thinking and child-like interactions when talking on what should be serious adult issues.  It's like people calling other people Nazis for wanting some form of border control.

ps Two Weeks ago we had:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Not sure what to make of these...

Yougov
Con 31
Lab 22
Lib 21

Comres
Lab 30
Con 29
Lib 16

Enjoy the weekend..

He's made racist comments in the past, and rather than apologise, just says (paraphrasing) 'Oh, that's just the way I speak, it doesn't mean anything'. I don't accept that explanation. Doesn't mean I'm demonising him, or thinking childishly.

Ignoring it could be considered child-like.

JuliusHMarx wrote:He's made racist comments in the past, and rather than apologise, just says (paraphrasing) 'Oh, that's just the way I speak, it doesn't mean anything'. I don't accept that explanation. Doesn't mean I'm demonising him, or thinking childishly.

Ignoring it could be considered child-like.

Quote what he said and the context in which he said it then we can discuss it.

But this demonising gets far worse - because it is used to demonise all voters that vote for a given politician.  So a politician - Boris Johnson - is falsely labelled a racist and misogynist - then everyone that votes for Boris Johnson is similarly branded a racist and misogynist.  

This is EXACTLY what has happened with the BREXIT debate.  Instead of discussing the matter in an adult manner - it is reduced to ridiculous name calling.  It makes me sympathetic to Thomas Hobbes critique and point of view when he considered the "public" as being too stupid and too brutish to be taken seriously (in general) in his 1651 book Leviathan.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-letterbox-muslim-remark-piccaninnies-police-barred-neil-basu-a9045006.html

Btw - You seem to be demonising some of the posters on this site.

If I appear to be demonising a guy calling Muslim Women letterboxes....Calling the families of Hillsborough victims "Moaners" and calling Gay Males "Bum Boys" as well as his insult towards Black Africans..

Happy to be guilty as charged..

JuliusHMarx wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-letterbox-muslim-remark-piccaninnies-police-barred-neil-basu-a9045006.html
...

Please explain in your own words why you believe this shows Boris Johnson to be a "racist".

No name Bertie wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-letterbox-muslim-remark-piccaninnies-police-barred-neil-basu-a9045006.html
...

Please explain in your own words why you believe this shows Boris Johnson to be a "racist".

I cant speak for Julius, but I believe that if you use racial slurs to describe people of a particular race that makes you a racist. Pretty much by default. Likewise using derogatory terms to describe a person of a particular religion or sexuality makes you a bigot and a homophobe respectively.

No name Bertie wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-letterbox-muslim-remark-piccaninnies-police-barred-neil-basu-a9045006.html
...

Please explain in your own words why you believe this shows Boris Johnson to be a "racist".

I believe that the words attributed to Boris Johnson in that article show him to be a racist.

No name Bertie wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-letterbox-muslim-remark-piccaninnies-police-barred-neil-basu-a9045006.html
...

Please explain in your own words why you believe this shows Boris Johnson to be a "racist".

Seriously?! Please explain why you don't.

Don't worry. The 'racist' Boris won't last long. The 'Anti Semite' Marxist White Knight is still planning the Goodly Coup, isn't he?

So it'll all come right in the end.

SecretFly wrote:Don't worry.  The 'racist' Boris won't last long.  The 'Anti Semite' Marxist White Knight is still planning the Goodly Coup, isn't he?

Guess what? It is possible to be critical of both of them. Gasp!

Nah Jules - no two things can be mutually exclusive. It's impossible.

SecretFly wrote:Don't worry.  The 'racist' Boris won't last long.  The 'Anti Semite' Marxist White Knight is still planning the Goodly Coup, isn't he?

So it'll all come right in the end.

Look! Squirrel!

JuliusHMarx wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Don't worry.  The 'racist' Boris won't last long.  The 'Anti Semite' Marxist White Knight is still planning the Goodly Coup, isn't he?

Guess what? It is possible to be critical of both of them. Gasp!

Course it is.  

But one of them, his presumed Anti-Semitism has been put in a low drawer for now marked 'To be Reused at a Later Date' by diehard  Remainers, who now reopen Boris's Racist drawer to slow down his pomp and circumstance race to a presumed No Deal Brexit.

How did you word it before?  Sometimes to have to run with the Devil or words to that effect?

True.  I'm just reminding you how it all works.  You know how it all works of course but I like to keep the hypocrisy of politics front and centre when time always tries to bury it.

But do carry on with Boris the 'racist' stuff.....

Pr4wn wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Don't worry.  The 'racist' Boris won't last long.  The 'Anti Semite' Marxist White Knight is still planning the Goodly Coup, isn't he?

So it'll all come right in the end.

Look! Squirrel!

"Please don't keep mentioning Corbyn's 'Anti Semitism' at this inopportune time when Remainers need him to keep pushing his Parliamentarian coup idea"

Apologies. By all means, continue with the Boris character assassination gig.

SecretFly wrote:But do carry on with Boris the 'racist' stuff.....

You'd prefer it if we kept quiet about it? Like a conspiracy? Oooooohhhhhh…….

JuliusHMarx wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-letterbox-muslim-remark-piccaninnies-police-barred-neil-basu-a9045006.html

Btw - You seem to be demonising some of the posters on this site.

Ironic, eh?

SecretFly wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Don't worry.  The 'racist' Boris won't last long.  The 'Anti Semite' Marxist White Knight is still planning the Goodly Coup, isn't he?

So it'll all come right in the end.

Look! Squirrel!

"Please don't keep mentioning Corbyn's 'Anti Semitism' at this inopportune time when Remainers need him to keep pushing his Parliamentarian coup idea"

Apologies.  By all means, continue with the Boris character assassination gig.

What absolute nonsense. If the government doesn't have the consent of parliament to do something, it doesn't get to do it. That's how it works.

'Coup' my arse.

I do have to laugh at the over-fawning towards Ruth Davidson. She is being lauded as something she wasn't on the back of picking up a few seats at the last election in Scotland.

None of that was down to any of her proposed policies, her support from people or any amount of great leadership. The last General Election saw the unionist parties in Scotland recognising the threat of another IndyRef and rallied the unionist voters to voting tactically in a bid to reduce SNP seats. Mwanwhile, the SNP were far less vocal on independence during canvassing and that did not go down well with a lot of pro-independence voters hence there were unionist gains. It had (as Fletch would say) naff all to do with anything Ruth Davidson did.

She has built up this false image that she is some kind of a miracle worker. She has chosen now to go as she knows that image will be shattered at the next election with Tory seats heading back to the SNP. I have no doubt that when that happens it will be painted as 'Oh that's because Ruth has gone' rather than it being any rise in support for independence.

Her fairytale-esque claim she'd be next First Minister remain just that - a fairytale that was never ever going to happen.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

'Coup' my arse.

I choose the word 'coup' to colour my political point, just as Remainers now choose the word 'coup' to colour their political point about Prorogue. All is fair in love and war. You choose your language, I'll choose mine.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I do have to laugh at the over-fawning towards Ruth Davidson. She is being lauded as something she wasn't on the back of picking up a few seats at the last election in Scotland.

None of that was down to any of her proposed policies, her support from people or any amount of great leadership. The last General Election saw the unionist parties in Scotland recognising the threat of another IndyRef and rallied the unionist voters to voting tactically in a bid to reduce SNP seats. Mwanwhile, the SNP were far less vocal on independence during canvassing and that did not go down well with a lot of pro-independence voters hence there were unionist gains. It had (as Fletch would say) naff all to do with anything Ruth Davidson did.

She has built up this false image that she is some kind of a miracle worker. She has chosen now to go as she knows that image will be shattered at the next election with Tory seats heading back to the SNP. I have no doubt that when that happens it will be painted as 'Oh that's because Ruth has gone' rather than it being any rise in support for independence.

Her fairytale-esque claim she'd be next First Minister remain just that - a fairytale that was never ever going to happen.

Absolute nonsense I'm afraid.

Davidson made the Tories a viable option in Scotland because of her articulation and for besting Sturgeon in a fair few debates, these things don't just happen by accident.

Soul Requiem wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:I do have to laugh at the over-fawning towards Ruth Davidson. She is being lauded as something she wasn't on the back of picking up a few seats at the last election in Scotland.

None of that was down to any of her proposed policies, her support from people or any amount of great leadership. The last General Election saw the unionist parties in Scotland recognising the threat of another IndyRef and rallied the unionist voters to voting tactically in a bid to reduce SNP seats. Mwanwhile, the SNP were far less vocal on independence during canvassing and that did not go down well with a lot of pro-independence voters hence there were unionist gains. It had (as Fletch would say) naff all to do with anything Ruth Davidson did.

She has built up this false image that she is some kind of a miracle worker. She has chosen now to go as she knows that image will be shattered at the next election with Tory seats heading back to the SNP. I have no doubt that when that happens it will be painted as 'Oh that's because Ruth has gone' rather than it being any rise in support for independence.

Her fairytale-esque claim she'd be next First Minister remain just that - a fairytale that was never ever going to happen.

Absolute nonsense I'm afraid.

Hmm so are you forecasting another rise in seats for the Tories in Scotland? Even after their vote shares have plummetted in by-elections in Scotland and in opinion polls in the past two years? Are you claiming she is a miracle worker on the back of one fluke General Election result?

SecretFly wrote:You choose your language, I'll choose mine.

Mi konsentas.

The Tories have a problem in Scotland....Mainly that Labour voters there tended to tactically vote for the Tory over the SNP because of the 'Union' and vice versa in 2017..

Since then Lib Dem share is up and Johnson is so divisive I can't see the same level of anti-nationalist tacticals..

Can see the Tories and Labour struggling..

Certainly this Brexit mess is a gift to the SNP..

So - will there be any sensible politicians left in parliament following the next election?

It seems that most of the old school and capable Conservative MP's and some of their Labour equivalents will struggle to get reelected having either left or been kicked out of their respective parties.

A Scottish opinion poll by YouGov forecasts:-

SNP - 43% (51 seats; +16 on 2017)
Con - 20% (3 seats; -10)
Lab - 15% (1 seat; -6)
Lib - 12% (4 seats; N/C)
Brx - 6%
Grn - 4%

For Holyrood:-

SNP - 45% (64 seats; +1 on 2016)
Con - 23% (25 seats; -6)
Lab - 13% (12 seats; -12)
Lib - 12% (15 seats; +10)
Brx - 3% (3 seats; +3)
Grn - 2% (10 seats; +4)
Oth - 6%

CaledonianCraig wrote:A Scottish opinion poll by YouGov forecasts:-

SNP - 43% (51 seats; +16 on 2017)
Con - 20% (3 seats; -10)
Lab - 15% (1 seat; -6)
Lib - 12% (4 seats; N/C)
Brx - 6%
Grn - 4%

For Holyrood:-

SNP - 45% (64 seats; +1 on 2016)
Con - 23% (25 seats; -6)
Lab - 13% (12 seats; -12)
Lib - 12% (15 seats; +10)
Brx - 3% (3 seats; +3)
Grn - 2% (10 seats; +4)
Oth - 6%

So, assuming a poll gets it correct for once, massively over-represented in Parliament again based on votes cast cf. other parts of the UK. Yet another defect in our politics.

That's first past the post for you!

Let's go with separate parliaments for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and then England can have proportional representation like we have in Holyrood and Cardiff Bay (and possibly Stormont?) already. Sound good?

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:That's first past the post for you!

Let's go with separate parliaments for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and then England can have proportional representation like we have in Holyrood and Cardiff Bay (and possibly Stormont?) already. Sound good?

PR good for me. I'm fed up to the back teeth of feeling disenfranchised and Lord knows what long-term Rushcliffe non-Tory voters feel like, for all Clarke seems like a fairly good egg. We have a childish system, which, let's face it, fits what's increasingly looking like a childish House of Commons.