Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Soft thread split, hard thread split, no-deal thread split. Who gives a sh!t as long as we get a thread split by the 15:35 deadline.

That was in 2014. The present tense is being used in Craig's point.

A lot has changed since 2014.

Soul Requiem wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum

A heck of a lot has changed politically since then. Anyone who denies that is in gross denial.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/scottish-independence

A lot has changed since April this year too. Plus, polls have been wrong in just about every major election or referendum since 2014.

You can't prove it.

Pr4wn wrote:A lot has changed since April this year too. Plus, polls have been wrong in just about every major election or referendum since 2014.

You can't prove it.

Indeed. And to prove that look at 2012 when the 2014 referendum was announced. Support for Yes in polls stood at between 25 and 29% and it ended up at over 44% whilst the No vote went down. This time around what exactly would be Better Togethers bargaining chip post-Brexit given that Scotland is evidently a pro-EU country.

The closer we get to a No Deal Brexit the more favoured Scottish Independence becomes.

Pr4wn wrote:A lot has changed since April this year too. Plus, polls have been wrong in just about every major election or referendum since 2014.

You can't prove it.

Talk about hair splitting. You can't prove otherwise.

I'm not the one making the claims, I don't have to.

Have you looked at the link? A poll showing a 1% lead for remain and 11% as "unsure" is far from proof of the point.

Heck, if I was Scottish I'd want out ASAP. Britain is fast becoming a complete basket case.

Pr4wn wrote:I'm not the one making the claims, I don't have to.

Have you looked at the link? A poll showing a 1% lead for remain and 11% as "unsure" is far from proof of the point.

Heck, if I was Scottish I'd want out ASAP. Britain is fast becoming a complete basket case.

There isn't a single poll that has leave on more than 46% so I'm happy with my opinion that the majority aren't backing it, you however did not ask for proof to prove the opposite, why so?

Because that wasn't the claim you made?

All of the polls back up my claim that less than half want Scottish independence, if you can find some evidence to suggest otherwise then go ahead, that was the exact claim I made.

Problem is that we still don't have any clue as to what terms Scotland will look to leave the UK on as nothing has been done to advance the position since the White Paper was published ahead of the 2014 referendum.

I agree that in principle that Scottish independence looks more attractive that it did in 2014 and that as someone who voted No first time around due to the lack of clarity (I'm not and never really have been against the idea of independence), I would have to decide my position based on the relative merits.

The claims by the Yes side during the 2014 referendum campaign (seamless EU membership, retaining the pound, no Border issues, development of civil service infrastructure in 18 months etc.) were precursors of the kind of claims made by the Brexit campaigners and I'm disappointed that lessons don't appear to have been learnt and steps taken to be able to give definitive (or as near as possible to definitive) answers to genuine concerns.

Due to the nature of my job and the location of the vast majority of my clients, a vote to leave the UK would be a vote for my own redundancy (or the need to relocate my young family to London) and if I'm going to do that I want to be bloody certain of what else I'm voting for.

Soul Requiem wrote:All of the polls back up my claim that less than half want Scottish independence, if you can find some evidence to suggest otherwise then go ahead, that was the exact claim I made.

The polls are not proof of your claim. What is so difficult to understand about that?

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:All of the polls back up my claim that less than half want Scottish independence, if you can find some evidence to suggest otherwise then go ahead, that was the exact claim I made.

The polls are not proof of your claim. What is so difficult to understand about that?

Please explain how a 1% lead with 11% unsure is "proof".

You're the one making the assertion, not me.

superflyweight wrote:Problem is that we still don't have any clue as to what terms Scotland will look to leave the UK on as nothing has been done to advance the position since the White Paper was published ahead of the 2014 referendum.  

I agree that in principle that Scottish independence looks more attractive that it did in 2014 and that as someone who voted No first time around due to the lack of clarity (I'm not and never really have been against the idea of independence), I would have to decide my position based on the relative merits.

The claims by the Yes side during the 2014 referendum campaign (seamless EU membership, retaining the pound, no Border issues, development of civil service infrastructure in 18 months etc.) were precursors of the kind of claims made by the Brexit campaigners and I'm disappointed that lessons don't appear to have been learnt and steps taken to be able to give definitive (or as near as possible to definitive) answers to genuine concerns.  

Due to the nature of my job and the location of the vast majority of my clients, a vote to leave the UK would be a vote for my own redundancy (or the need to relocate my young family to London) and if I'm going to do that I want to be bloody certain of what else I'm voting for.    

The thing is though that Brexit offers just as much of that uncertainty for many people too. Much services and funding comes from the EU so what happens to all of that? Independence will be much the same - a lot of unknowns for sure. The Yes campaign has laid out a new 650 page white paper covering much and no doubt will release more when IndyRef 2 becomes a reality.

Point taken about your job and I have no idea what it is but why should you be made certainly redundant? Is it another unionist-backing company making this claim? We had with the banks in 2014 who said they needed to be based within the EU but oddly enough Brexit is on us and I have not heard the same threats considering the UK will end up outside the EU. A lot of it is scaremongering.

As for civil services etc it is not rocket science and a great mystery. It will all be dealt with I am sure much like TUPE does when new companies take over firms.

I have never hidden from the reality of how tough things will be in the formative years of independence but I see just the same perils for Brexit looming large. One route gives us self-governance and a chance to make our own decisions in this world whilst the other doesn't.

SecretFly wrote:Does anyone ever wonder why individual societies, and larger political entities, now seem to Always be split pretty much down the middle?
.....
Strange that the World finds itself so finely divided on basically anything one cares to throw up for a vote - right wing/left wing, Globalist/Nationalist, Trump, Boris, sexism, climate change, EU, Brexit, Scottish Independence etc, etc, etc.
Everything miraculously seems to be on a knife edge - "you won the vote this time but if we had it tomorrow, on that result, we'd probably beat you when a few people realised their mistake."

The reason that things big issues seem split 50:50 across the west is because we tend to focus on those specific issues which are split evenly in each country.
For example, gun control isn't a 50:50 in the UK, so it hardly gets debated. In the US there are passionate views on both sides so it's a 'debate'.
Mainstream political parties tend to adjust, so if an opinion is felt both very strongly and by more than 75% of the population, it will be eventually adopted into the party platform. It's only issues that evenly split the population that also tend to split the political parties, and thus Tories and Labour always tend to be quite close to each other in the polls.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:Problem is that we still don't have any clue as to what terms Scotland will look to leave the UK on as nothing has been done to advance the position since the White Paper was published ahead of the 2014 referendum.  

I agree that in principle that Scottish independence looks more attractive that it did in 2014 and that as someone who voted No first time around due to the lack of clarity (I'm not and never really have been against the idea of independence), I would have to decide my position based on the relative merits.

The claims by the Yes side during the 2014 referendum campaign (seamless EU membership, retaining the pound, no Border issues, development of civil service infrastructure in 18 months etc.) were precursors of the kind of claims made by the Brexit campaigners and I'm disappointed that lessons don't appear to have been learnt and steps taken to be able to give definitive (or as near as possible to definitive) answers to genuine concerns.  

Due to the nature of my job and the location of the vast majority of my clients, a vote to leave the UK would be a vote for my own redundancy (or the need to relocate my young family to London) and if I'm going to do that I want to be bloody certain of what else I'm voting for.    

The thing is though that Brexit offers just as much of that uncertainty for many people too. Much services and funding comes from the EU so what happens to all of that? Independence will be much the same - a lot of unknowns for sure. The Yes campaign has laid out a new 650 page white paper covering much and no doubt will release more when IndyRef 2 becomes a reality.

Point taken about your job and I have no idea what it is but why should you be made certainly redundant? Is it another unionist-backing company making this claim? We had with the banks in 2014 who said they needed to be based within the EU but oddly enough Brexit is on us and I have not heard the same threats considering the UK will end up outside the EU. A lot of it is scaremongering.

As for civil services etc it is not rocket science and a great mystery. It will all be dealt with I am sure much like TUPE does when new companies take over firms.

I have never hidden from the reality of how tough things will be in the formative years of independence but I see just the same perils for Brexit looming large. One route gives us self-governance and a chance to make our own decisions in this world whilst the other doesn't.

You haven't been listening very closely then.

I completely sympathise with the Scots that want to be independent. English nationalism has completely taken over now. Boris, JRM, Farage etc couldn't give two hoots about Scotland, Wales or NI.

But until the SNP produce more concrete detail about what will actually happen post-independence, the population are likely to err on the side of caution and remain.

"A lot of scarmongering" was mentioned by Craig earlier. Sounds very similar to the consistent Leavers' blathering of "Project Fear".

Pr4wn wrote:I completely sympathise with the Scots that want to be independent. English nationalism has completely taken over now. Boris, JRM, Farage etc couldn't give two hoots about Scotland, Wales or NI.

But until the SNP produce more concrete detail about what will actually happen post-independence, the population are likely to err on the side of caution and remain.

"A lot of scarmongering" was mentioned by Craig earlier. Sounds very similar to the consistent Leavers' blathering of "Project Fear".

Prove it?

I can't prove that something is likely? It just seems to be a common sense theory.

I'm also kind of on your side here. The SNP are still completely unprepared for independence, they still have no plan other than leaving. Or if they do, they just haven't told anyone.

I backed up an opinion with years worth of polling and apparently that wasn't good enough, are you now using double standards?

Wtf are you talking about? Do you not agree with me?

Or are you just starting a petty argument because you were unable to answer my final question?

"It is my opinion that, given the lack of a detailed plan on independence put forward by the SNP, the voting population of Scotland will likely vote to remain a part of the UK despite harbouring major feelings of discontent towards Westminster. If a detailed plan is provided, it's my opinion that they may well change their minds."

How's that, m'Lord?

I should have categorically stated that it was my opinion and not a statement of fact, despite how clear that must of been for 99% of the people reading it.

I sincerely apologise.

Pr4wn wrote:I sincerely apologise.

Prove it

Pr4wn wrote:I completely sympathise with the Scots that want to be independent. English nationalism has completely taken over now. Boris, JRM, Farage etc couldn't give two hoots about Scotland, Wales or NI.

But until the SNP produce more concrete detail about what will actually happen post-independence, the population are likely to err on the side of caution and remain.

"A lot of scarmongering" was mentioned by Craig earlier. Sounds very similar to the consistent Leavers' blathering of "Project Fear".

That's one of the points I was trying to make.  The term "Project Fear" came to prominence during the 2014 referendum and was used to dismiss lots of genuine questions about the terms on which independence would be achieved.  

At the time we had an overweight leader making broad promises and assuring us that everything would be alright if only we had the courage of our convictions and that independence was a great opportunity.  Sound familiar?  

And for all the English nationalist gobsh1tes like Farage, Rees-Mogg, Davis and Johnson there are also equally gobsh1tey Scottish nationalists like Angus MacNeil, Pete Wishart, Ian Blackford and Salmond.      

Sturgeon is a much more impressive and measured politician than any of them and that's why I'm disappointed that she hasn't been able to steer the independence issue away from appeasing the "flag-wavers" and towards creating a clear and definite vision for how we would go about setting up an independent country.

A 650 page document detailing plans for various aspects/plans for independence was brought out earlier this year. Brexit though is potentially a lot closer to happening yet there are far less details on that out there. Still people back it though.

CaledonianCraig wrote:A 650 page document detailing plans for various aspects/plans for independence was brought out earlier this year. Brexit though is potentially a lot closer to happening yet there are far less details on that out there. Still people back it though.

People are idiots. The 650 page plan was very much a rehash of the White Paper that was so problematic.

Soul Requiem wrote:I backed up an opinion with years worth of polling and apparently that wasn't good enough, are you now using double standards?

Also, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/sturgeon-warns-boris-johnson-not-to-block-independence-vote

According to the latest polls, a majority of Scots now support independence. This is not to categorically state that this position is a solid fact, of course. But the polling supports the view.

That single poll was included on the link I posted.

So you ignore three years of polling because they're not accurate then try to suggest that one poll supports any particular view, not quite how it works and until it's backed up by the other polling companies it's merely an outlier. Previous elections also show that the majority of unsures eventually back the status quo so not as simple as merely removing them to support a particular viewpoint.

Strange how you ignored the polls when they didn't agree with you but jump on one the moment it does.

It's not that the three years of polling are inaccurate, they're just out of date in the modern context of Scotland becoming increasingly politically divorced from England.

In any case, you were citing the link as proof of your assertion, which it clearly wasn't. That's all I was pointing out.

Soul can use the last three years as evidence but look at the trend of the last 40 years in independence polls. In the late 1970s and early 1980s support for Scottish independence stood at around 20%. A decade later and it had risen to around 25% and, aside from spells of it plateauing, it has never dipped back down to that 20% level. It has risen into the 30 %+ and up into the 40% and up towards and now through the 50%. The voice is only getting louder and stronger and I cannot see that trend changing due to the way Westminster runs affairs.

It also doesn't help the unionist cause that during the referendum campaign, they promised Scotland a greater say in UK affairs if it voted against independence, only to renege once the referendum was won.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It also doesn't help the unionist cause that during the referendum campaign, they promised Scotland a greater say in UK affairs if it voted against independence, only to renege once the referendum was won.

Absolutely. And lots of other promises were not kept.

One was that more powers/rights would be devolved to Holyrood and that has not happened. The opposite actually since Westminster intercepted fishing and farming rights bill from the EU. They also promised greater expenditure which hasn't happened. And from 2014 Scotland has gone from 'a valued partner of the union' (Cameron and Mundell) to 'not a partner of the union but a part of the UK' (Mundell). Also when you have disgraceful comments flung at Scottish MPs in the Houses of Parliament with phrases such as 'F*** off' and 'Commit suicide' directed at them.

Not sure what to make of these...

Yougov
Con 31
Lab 22
Lib 21

Comres
Lab 30
Con 29
Lib 16

Enjoy the weekend..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Not sure what to make of these...

Yougov
Con 31
Lab 22
Lib  21

Comres
Lab 30
Con 29
Lib  16

Enjoy the weekend..

Presumably small sample sizes and volatility.  Ultimately the key will be in "marginal seats".

Ps I hear that Labour voters that are strong remainers are shifting to Lib. Dem. because the Lib. Dem. have a very clear policy regarding second referendum / staying in the EU - something voters are apparently not getting from Labour.  So Lib. Dems may cut into the Labour vote.  But I suppose if there is no majority - there could be a Labour - Lib Dem. coalition government, if and when the next general election is called.  But by then the UK may already be outside of the EU with a no deal.

A blackout in England, Wales?  How timely.  Not one but two power stations going down simultaneously.  Similarities to New York blackouts recently when allegedly and 'miraculously' an illuminated American flag managed to stay on.

Naughty!  .  Wonder what happened during the darkness?  Batman stuff in the real world?  Time might tell.

You mean your conspiracy sites haven't told you already?

On the polls thing. What do they say this time? Well, they prove again in their very being that they can never be trusted anymore for anything. They are heavily influenced by questions asked and overall political overview of polling org doing the asking. They are part of the political landscape not some purist outsider simply observing dispassionately.

Pr4wn wrote:You mean your conspiracy sites haven't told you already?

No, I don't read the 'Trump in water-bed with Putin' pages, Pr.  Those conspiracy sites and threads have been busy in the last few years haven't they.  Up market 'liberal' tin foil radio waves.... better quality than trailer trash stuff the Trumpster's wear  

Oh well back to Epstein court document releases..... gotta study!  

SecretFly wrote:A blackout in England, Wales?  How timely.  Not one but two power stations going down simultaneously.  Similarities to New York blackouts recently when allegedly and 'miraculously' an illuminated American flag managed to stay on.

Naughty!  .  Wonder what happened during the darkness?  Batman stuff in the real world?  Time might tell.

This is very suspicious as well. 'Leaking roof'? Pull the other one. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-49299362/luton-airport-video-captures-rain-pouring-into-airport-terminal

JuliusHMarx wrote:

SecretFly wrote:A blackout in England, Wales?  How timely.  Not one but two power stations going down simultaneously.  Similarities to New York blackouts recently when allegedly and 'miraculously' an illuminated American flag managed to stay on.

Naughty!  .  Wonder what happened during the darkness?  Batman stuff in the real world?  Time might tell.

This is very suspicious as well. 'Leaking roof'? Pull the other one. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-49299362/luton-airport-video-captures-rain-pouring-into-airport-terminal

Yeah, looks like Seal Team Ops Special Unit 17Q's mission was compromised and had to be aborted!!!

The Horror! Oh well - back home for some dry wetsuits, a nice cuppa tea and try again tomorrow. They believe Elvis is still in the tunnel underneath that airport. I have a feeling they might be right....

Another one for you SecretFly. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-49305056

SecretFly wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:You mean your conspiracy sites haven't told you already?

No, I don't read the 'Trump in water-bed with Putin' pages, Pr.  Those conspiracy sites and threads have been busy in the last few years haven't they.  Up market 'liberal' tin foil radio waves.... better quality than trailer trash stuff the Trumpster's wear  

Oh well back to Epstein court document releases..... gotta study!  

Best wait for the coroner's report.

The classic suicide by three-shots-to-the-back-of-the-head. Classic method.

Now let's wait and see for the look-over-there news event that will arrive in the next seven days.

Never saw that coming.  Shock horror!
Suicide Watch USA style!  Watch you commit suicide.... no fee.

And to think they upped his security when he allegedly tried to suicide himself a few weeks ago that time he was put in the cell with the crooked ex-cop murderer.   And wasn't that the time of the Blackout in New York?

These blackouts....badddddd omens!!! Somebody better check on Assange pronto! Another man the kings, queens, sheiks, presidents, prime ministers and saints don't want talking in a court room.


But is he really Dead?  Well, we all know Elvis still lives underneath Luton airport so.........

UK is getting more money pumped into Prison reform....20,000 more Police...2 billion for the NHS....Public sector Wage rises are on the way....Pumping money into Schools..

Not one single piece of the MSM is interested in where this money is coming from...

Never thought the press over here would get as bad as in the US..

I was wrong..

And the Tories have the gall to say that Labour spends money that the public doesn't have.

Boris is desperate because he knows the vast majority of the public hates him.

Leading in the polls, leading in the 'Boris v Corbyn' polls, would likely win an outright majority if an election were held tomorrow...Boris is far from desperate.

I've also seen the BBC, Sky News, Channel 4, Guardian and the Times all question where the money is coming from for Johnson's pledges...Truss can't be looking too hard at the MSM.

Ah, those polls that you've rubbished so many times before when it suited your agenda?