Brexit

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Tea anyone?

A sad indictment of the situation in this Country....

A new report comes out saying 14m People are below the poverty line.....UK has Operations getting cancelled at record levels.....Teachers are buying books and Cleaning equipment for schools....Vulnerable Pensioners are losing their home helps..

We have the Govt putting out KFC pictures with Corbyn on...

Spoilt kids with no idea of what is happening in the real World.....

Very...Very sad....You must have very little self respect if you vote Conservative.

Do bore off, you keep quoting the same tired numbers, i'd really like to know what definition of poverty sees almost a quarter of the population below the 'poverty line'. All you ever do is post headlines from the bloody independent.

Pretty sure it's the definition accepted by the Government.

Enlightening stuff yet again Julius.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Pretty sure it's the definition accepted by the Government.

The same government who changed the definition of poverty to raise their own numbers and make it look like less people were in poverty?

Soul Requiem wrote:Enlightening stuff yet again Julius.

Sorry, I forgot to also say - google 'poverty definition UK'. Hope that helps.

Ah bless you don't understand it.

Actually, it's very clear, and mathematically very simple. I'm not sure why you can't find it online.

That may be the case but i'm not the one stating the numbers.

But you know the article is from the Independent, and the article states the definition used, so why do you need to ask on here to know what definition is used?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Britain has become a Country with a strong service sector and little else...While I'm a strong believer in Unions they have to take some of the blame.....Far easier and less hassle to get things made elsewhere...

Problem is though a strong service sector based economy leaves the South thriving and the North struggling..

If anyone think HS2 will change anything heaven help you..

I agree that Unions wrecked the Miners and a lot of the car industry. But I don't think that applies across the board.

The definition used is from the SMC, an independent group unaffiliated to the government, it also doesn't take into account single person households or any measure that's in anyway significant to poverty.

There you go, you've educated yourself. Now you no longer need to find out "what definition of poverty sees almost a quarter of the population below the 'poverty line'".

JuliusHMarx wrote:There you go, you've educated yourself. Now you no longer need to find out "what definition of poverty sees almost a quarter of the population below the 'poverty line'".

means.

Soul Requiem wrote:Do bore off, you keep quoting the same tired numbers, i'd really like to know what definition of poverty sees almost a quarter of the population below the 'poverty line'. All you ever do is post headlines from the bloody independent.

Yes but facts don't matter to you do they ??

After all you keeping chucking racist abuse at Corbyn without a single credible piece of evidence he is one..

I do believe inequality and poverty have come down since the tories took over in 2010, according to official statistics.

However that doesn’t take into account the damage that some of the extensive public sector cuts have done.

I like the fact that Boris and Javid are more fiscally loose compared to their predecessors, but a No Deal Brexit could wreck all economic gains and then some.

Britain appears to have boxed itself into a corner.

Leave the EU with no deal OR stay in the EU with a bad deal.

You guys are smarter than this!

.

aucklandlaurie wrote:Britain appears to have boxed itself into a corner.

Leave the EU with no deal OR stay in the EU with a bad deal.

You guys are smarter than this!

We currently have a very good deal with the EU which we can keep....

There is a heck of a lot that Brexiteers aren't thinking about here.

What happens to British produce who rely greatly on trade deals with the EU to sell their goods. For example 75% of Welsh Lamb is sold to the EU. What happens to that Welsh Lamb if ties are to be cut. Automatically, the tariff that will go on that produce will totally obliterate sales figures. And that is just one example - no doubt there are hundreds more.

Another one is the Galileo set of communications satellites funded by the EU which feeds GPS in the UK will be denied to the UK once Brexit is finalised so what happens then to using that technology.

The one big white lie is the looming presence of great deals with the US. Trump is not daft. He can see the UK will be absolutely desperate for a meaningful trade deal and will take the paltriest of deals to fill the massive gap left by no deals with the EU.

CaledonianCraig wrote:There is a heck of a lot that Brexiteers aren't thinking about here. ...

Hi Craig, can I ask you if for whatever reason Britain does NOT leave the EU - let's say there is a "Brexit deadline deferral" to Jan 2020, and then Lab-Lib-SNP type of coalition comes into power - a new EU Referendum is ordered - and the result of that is to REMAIN - would this change your view and your voting intention regarding Independence for Scotland?  Or are you a committed Independence for Scotland - no matter what eventuallity?

No name Bertie wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:There is a heck of a lot that Brexiteers aren't thinking about here. ...

Hi Craig, can I ask you if for whatever reason Britain does NOT leave the EU - let's say there is a "Brexit deadline deferral" to Jan 2020, and then Lab-Lib-SNP type of coalition comes into power - a new EU Referendum is ordered - and the result of that is to REMAIN - would this change your view and your voting intention regarding Independence for Scotland?  Or are you a committed Independence for Scotland - no matter what eventuallity?

I am committed to independence either way. I am committed to an independent Scotland in or out of the EU in whatever future transpires. I am done with being ruled over by the utter incompetents at Westminster who were not elected by Scots by the way. I want a government ruling over Scotland that Scots elected and that is not the case at the moment and has not been for some time.

CaledonianCraig wrote: I am committed to independence either way. I am committed to an independent Scotland in or out of the EU in whatever future transpires. I am done with being ruled over by the utter incompetents at Westminster who were not elected by Scots by the way. I want a government ruling over Scotland that Scots elected and that is not the case at the moment and has not been for some time.

How long do you think it will realistically take given the following scenarios
a) Britain leaves the EU in 2019 or 2020.
b) Britain remains in the EU

Would I be correct in saying that the only way for Scotland to gain independence is through the following two steps:
a) Westminster Parliament allows Scotland to have an Independence Referendum (passing of a Westminster Parliamentary Bill to that effect).
b) Getting more than a 50.0% vote in a Scottish Independence Referendum (assuming only two choices: Independence vs Remain in the UK)

My own view is that as the Scottish National Party overwhelmingly controls Scotland - that is a sign that the Scottish electorate wants to be run by "Scottish Nationals" and hence that should mean they would want Independence.

If the UK leaves the EU in 2019 or 2020 then I can see another IndyRef coming sometime in 2020 or 2021.

If the UK remains in the EU then ot may delay another IndyRef by a few years but that will depend on opinion polls and election results.

You are correct on point A and point B in your second part.

You could look at the SNP's popularity in Scotland in various ways. Many vote for them as they find them more trustworthy than the Tories and Labour as they focus on what is best for Scotland whereas the Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour are puppets for their Westminster parents. Many vote for the SNP as they are the only party actively pushing for Scottish Independence. It is an area lost upon the likes of Labour who, if they mellowed on the idea of independence would fair far better in Scotland.

A General Election is on the cards in the next couple of months I would say. All polls suggest the SNP will win 50+ seats and that will be seen as a mandate for an IndyRef but who will win that election? I would say it is sure to be a Hung Parliament and the ideal scenario for the SNP would be to form a coalition with Labour in return for an indyref.

CaledonianCraig wrote:If the UK leaves the EU in 2019 or 2020 then I can see another IndyRef coming sometime in 2020 or 2021.

If the UK remains in the EU then ot may delay another IndyRef by a few years but that will depend on opinion polls and election results.

You are correct on point A and point B in your second part.

You could look at the SNP's popularity in Scotland in various ways. Many vote for them as they find them more trustworthy than the Tories and Labour as they focus on what is best for Scotland whereas the Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour are puppets for their Westminster parents. Many vote for the SNP as they are the only party actively pushing for Scottish Independence. It is an area lost upon the likes of Labour who, if they mellowed on the idea of independence would fair far better in Scotland.

A General Election is on the cards in the next couple of months  I would say. All polls suggest the SNP will win 50+ seats and that will be seen as a mandate for an IndyRef but who will win that election? I would say it is sure to be a Hung Parliament and the ideal scenario for the SNP would be to form a coalition with Labour in return for an indyref.

If Scotland becomes independent from the "UK & NI" - what will the political environment look like in Scotland?  I assume that the SNP will remain as a party - but then there needs to be other parties to provide a choice.  Or maybe the SNP will split into two or more parties.

The way I see things is that it is inevitable that Scotland will gain independence - but exactly when I couldn't be certain.  It would be very interesting to see a Labour - SNP coalition in power.  I assume the SNP would only accept a coalition on the basis of Indyref 2.   But surely Labour would oppose that - but then Corbyn would be desperate to get into power so why would he waste that opportunity.  Also one would think Corbyn's old school socialism would welcome the idea of Scottish Independence.

If Scotland were to become independent then the political landscape would depend a lot on how the unionist parties can adapt to a new environment. Would they embrace it and look to formulate plans for the future of an independent Scotland or would they refuse to let go of the union and try to urge reunification? The SNP may very well split into different parties at some point in the future but that depends on how they appeal to voters in an independent Scotland.

As for a potential Labour/SNP coalition I reckon it would prove the best and possibly only option for Labour to form a coalition government as the SNP would be the only party with enough seats to get Labour over the line. And there would be no coalition if Corbyn were to refuse a second IndyRef I have no doubt about that.

If Scotland left the UK, it would have as much of a calamitous impact on Scotland as UK would face with No Deal.
The gap in leverage between the UK and Scotland is even greater than EU and the UK. The negotiations would be a bloodbath. SNP's 'white paper' turned out to be a load of lies nearly as big as Boris' Brexit BS.
CC, it's so funny on how you pick on the negatives of UK leaving the EU, but call reality project fear when it applies to Scotland.

Anyway this is the Brexit thread, if we continue this discussion perhaps it should be on another thread.

DELETED AND MOVED TO OTHER THREAD.

Amber alert!

JuliusHMarx wrote:Amber alert!

What?!!!!

Boris used a comb?

More rats deserting the sinking ship. Tick tock Johnson.

You know the World has gone crazy when The Times are saying Corbyn could be the next Mugabe.

In other news the Tories lead..

14..10....5...4...3...3 in 6 polls out at the weekend..

4/6 are Hung Parliaments..Other two are healthy majorities.

In 2 polls asking about a GE after Oct 31..

Labour are level or 2 points ahead..

Think Oct 15 has bought the farm.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:You know the World has gone crazy when The Times are saying Corbyn could be the next Mugabe.

In other news the Tories lead..

14..10....5...4...3...3 in 6 polls out at the weekend..

4/6 are Hung Parliaments..Other two are healthy majorities.

In 2 polls asking about a GE after Oct 31..

Labour are level or 2 points ahead..

Think Oct 15 has bought the farm.

Mugabe is far too extreme. Anyway - Mugabe had a reputation for getting things done however disastrous they were for a once wealthy country.

However I do feel some concern over the future given that we may end up just replacing one poorly lead weak government dominated by extreme ideology and unelected advisers by another. The fact that Corbyn is only mildly more palatable than the car crash that is BJ and his ERG buddies should not be a cause for celebration.

Interesting times. In an upcomming GE I can see Corbyn squeezing in to no.10 as the leader of the largest party in a coalition, but I can also see that coalition breaking up very quickly, particularly if he wants to push on with Brexit as there is only one other party that wants it - and I just can't see him managing a coalition at all well. We could end up in stormy waters for some time as I don't think there will be any stability until either the Tories or Labour get their act together.

I'd just love it if the LD's could join the other two as a main party but have to be realistic.

Interesting to hear Johnson say this morning that a no-deal Brexit would be a failure, even if he did go on to say it would the fault of both the UK and Irish governments. Is he trying to put clear blue water between the Tories and the Brexit Party, who actively want a no-deal Brexit?

Another question: if he leaves Dublin - Dublin, mind - without having shared with Leo Varadkar the UK government's alternative to the backstop, can we assume he has nothing?

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Interesting to hear Johnson say this morning that a no-deal Brexit would be a failure, even if he did go on to say it would the fault of both the UK and Irish governments. Is he trying to put clear blue water between the Tories and the Brexit Party, who actively want a no-deal Brexit?

Another question: if he leaves Dublin - Dublin, mind - without having shared with Leo Varadkar the UK government's alternative to the backstop, can we assume he has nothing?

I think its pretty easy to assume he has nothing. No rumors of anything realistic have come out of the government beyond 'oh we have lots of ideas but are afraid people will laugh at us if we tell them what they are'

BJ was chsllenged on his plan for his way around,the backstop and he was embarrassingly caught out by Rory Stewart during one of the rare leadership debates he took part in.

Stewart pressed BJ on what is plan was on the Irish Border issue. He said it was to keep it as it was in event of a No Deal and invoke a part (cannot remember its name it was cat147 or something) that would see no hard border and goods electronically registered crossing the border. BJ had no answer when Stewart reminded him that act could only be used if a Deal was signed with the EU as it is part of the current deal.

Schooled by a backbencher live on TV. Sums up the rank incompetence and cluelessness of BJ.

Does anyone know what is going on in relation to Brexit?

a) Has the Parliamentarian Bill to ask the EU for a deferment been passed and been given Royal assent?
b) Will Boris Johnson actually go to the EU and ask for deferment if that bill is passed.  Or will he waste time, resign or be forced out of Parliament - creating more delay as a new Party leader / PM is chosen.
c) Is absolutely nothing going to happen during the 5 weeks Parliament is going to be prorogued?  Which means only two weeks to deadline following the re-establishment of Parliament.
d) Is France actually not going to allow any form of extension post Oct. 31 as being claimed elsewhere?  or will they be forced to go along by Germany and others and the EC - if they do receive an extension request.

Yes, the bill's been given Royal assent.

I cannot see any country blocking an extension for two reasons. Brexit with No Deal will be damaging for all countries in the EU as well as the UK. Secondly, it is common knowledge that a General Election is inevitable in the coming weeks so those EU countries will hope that a newly elected Westminster government will bring fresh ideas for Brexit to the table to end the empasse so blocking an extension would be foolhardy.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I cannot see any country blocking an extension for two reasons. Brexit with No Deal will be damaging for all countries in the EU as well as the UK. Secondly, it is common knowledge that a General Election is inevitable in the coming weeks so those EU countries will hope that a newly elected Westminster government will bring fresh ideas for Brexit to the table to end the empasse so blocking an extension would be foolhardy.

Yeah the general consensus seems to be that its sabre rattling. Of course our government would never stoop to such tactics, mainly because we are currently only capable of threatening ourselves

aucklandlaurie wrote:Britain appears to have boxed itself into a corner.

Leave the EU with no deal OR stay in the EU with a bad deal.

You guys are smarter than this!

That's the problem - we aren't. We've been bullshitting all this time and now we've been rumbled.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:There is a heck of a lot that Brexiteers aren't thinking about here. ...

Hi Craig, can I ask you if for whatever reason Britain does NOT leave the EU - let's say there is a "Brexit deadline deferral" to Jan 2020, and then Lab-Lib-SNP type of coalition comes into power - a new EU Referendum is ordered - and the result of that is to REMAIN - would this change your view and your voting intention regarding Independence for Scotland?  Or are you a committed Independence for Scotland - no matter what eventuallity?

I am committed to independence either way. I am committed to an independent Scotland in or out of the EU in whatever future transpires. I am done with being ruled over by the utter incompetents at Westminster who were not elected by Scots by the way. I want a government ruling over Scotland that Scots elected and that is not the case at the moment and has not been for some time.

Strange. Sounds a lot like Farage et al re. the EU....

navyblueshorts wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:There is a heck of a lot that Brexiteers aren't thinking about here. ...

Hi Craig, can I ask you if for whatever reason Britain does NOT leave the EU - let's say there is a "Brexit deadline deferral" to Jan 2020, and then Lab-Lib-SNP type of coalition comes into power - a new EU Referendum is ordered - and the result of that is to REMAIN - would this change your view and your voting intention regarding Independence for Scotland?  Or are you a committed Independence for Scotland - no matter what eventuallity?

I am committed to independence either way. I am committed to an independent Scotland in or out of the EU in whatever future transpires. I am done with being ruled over by the utter incompetents at Westminster who were not elected by Scots by the way. I want a government ruling over Scotland that Scots elected and that is not the case at the moment and has not been for some time.

Strange. Sounds a lot like Farage et al re. the EU....

Massive difference. I will leave you to trot off and work out what they are.

That usually translates into “I dont actually have an argument and hope you’ll go away and forget about it”

Samo wrote:That usually translates into “I dont actually have an argument and hope you’ll go away and forget about it”

Eh no.

Massive differences being....

Nigel Farage wants out of the EU with No Deal. In my post I stated I'd take Scottish independence if it resulted in Scotland being in or out of the EU in an independent Scotland.

A large amount of Scots that support Scottish independence from the UK for self-governance - a chance to choose its own path in this world and not dance to Westminster's tune which is so out of sync with Scotland now. Farage wants out of the EU but his country (the UK) is self-governing at the moment and gets to make its own decisions in this world unlike Scotland. Now do you see the difference?

There isn’t a big difference between hard Brexiters and Scottish nationalists.
Blame the ‘other’ (whether it’s English or Europeans) for all the problems, and endorse policies which expert economists conclude will lower living standards.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Samo wrote:That usually translates into “I dont actually have an argument and hope you’ll go away and forget about it”

Eh no.

Massive differences being....

Nigel Farage wants out of the EU with No Deal. In my post I stated I'd take Scottish independence if it resulted in Scotland being in or out of the EU in an independent Scotland.

A large amount of Scots that support Scottish independence from the UK for self-governance - a chance to choose its own path in this world and not dance to Westminster's tune which is so out of sync with Scotland now. Farage wants out of the EU but his country (the UK) is self-governing at the moment and gets to make its own decisions in this world unlike Scotland. Now do you see the difference?

Scottish waters for Scottish fishermen, right?

It Must Be Love wrote:There isn’t a big difference between hard Brexiters and Scottish nationalists.
Blame the ‘other’ (whether it’s English or Europeans) for all the problems, and endorse policies which expert economists conclude will lower living standards.

Of course there is a difference.

Scotland does not have independence. The UK and Brexiteers do.

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Samo wrote:That usually translates into “I dont actually have an argument and hope you’ll go away and forget about it”

Eh no.

Massive differences being....

Nigel Farage wants out of the EU with No Deal. In my post I stated I'd take Scottish independence if it resulted in Scotland being in or out of the EU in an independent Scotland.

A large amount of Scots that support Scottish independence from the UK for self-governance - a chance to choose its own path in this world and not dance to Westminster's tune which is so out of sync with Scotland now. Farage wants out of the EU but his country (the UK) is self-governing at the moment and gets to make its own decisions in this world unlike Scotland. Now do you see the difference?

Scottish waters for Scottish fishermen, right?

I have no real strong preferences on that subject either way to be honest.

Most people that I "see" commenting here and elsewhere would be absolute disasters as politicians.  It is very easy to criticise what we imagine we see on our screens through media coverage and commentary - but all politicians have to have a basic set of peoples skill.

For example I don't get the sort of targetting of CaledonianCraig for his separate views on Scottish Independence & Brexit.  The key thing is he is clearly articulating genuine views.  You might disagree with him - but you can at least agree to disagree - rather than try to persuade him his opinions are "wrong".  That ends up "personalising" the debate which tends to result in ever entrenched and polarised positions between ordinary people with online access.