Brexit

Soul Requiem wrote:It takes a complete lack of understanding to not see how this played into his hands perfectly, he purges the party gets his general election and then has complete control.

It was a queen sacrifice played to perfection as far as he's concerned.

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:The Brexit Party have no MPs.

No, but they a pretty sizeable number of voters - about 3.7-4.7 million.

If Johnson gets BP candidates to stand down in areas where the Tories need to win seats - broadly speaking, southern England and the Midlands - and allows BP candidates a free run at Labour constituencies which the Tories have no hope of winning - mostly northern England and parts of Wales - then that would work out quite well for him.

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:It takes a complete lack of understanding to not see how this played into his hands perfectly, he purges the party gets his general election and then has complete control.

It was a queen sacrifice played to perfection as far as he's concerned.

He literally lost his parliamentary majority. He now cannot accomplish anything. Not to mention the humiliation he suffered in the House yesterday. He's also shown himself, yet again, to be completely untrustworthy. Nobody in the House believes a word he says. The difference now is that he no longer has control of the situation. His plan all along was to call the GE and then change the date so that the UK exited without a deal on October 31st. Parliament is now going to stop that from happening and quite right too.

The majority of the House is now united in stopping Johnson from taking the UK out without a deal. He's accomplished that, I suppose.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:It takes a complete lack of understanding to not see how this played into his hands perfectly, he purges the party gets his general election and then has complete control.

It was a queen sacrifice played to perfection as far as he's concerned.

He literally lost his parliamentary majority. He now cannot accomplish anything. Not to mention the humiliation he suffered in the House yesterday. He's also shown himself, yet again, to be completely untrustworthy. Nobody in the House believes a word he says. The difference now is that he no longer has control of the situation. His plan all along was to call the GE and then change the date so that the UK exited without a deal on October 31st. Parliament is now going to stop that from happening and quite right too.

The majority of the House is now united in stopping Johnson from taking the UK out without a deal. He's accomplished that, I suppose.

 You never cease to amaze with failing to understand the most simple things, Corbyn cannot save face without an election so there will be one sooner or later. It being now or in two months matters not a not.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:If no-deal is blocked by law, what then for the Brexit party? Didn’t they say they’d step out of old Boris’s way if he promised a no-deal? Do they combine with him to push for a harder Brexit or are they basically pointless with no-deal off the table?

Is it just time for Boris to welcome Farage into the party and Nige can dump the followers he no longer needs?

Duty281 wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:If no-deal is blocked by law, what then for the Brexit party? Didn’t they say they’d step out of old Boris’s way if he promised a no-deal? Do they combine with him to push for a harder Brexit or are they basically pointless with no-deal off the table?

Is it just time for Boris to welcome Farage into the party and Nige can dump the followers he no longer needs?

No-deal cannot be blocked by law, unless article 50 is revoked. This latest bill merely compels the PM to ask for an extension to article 50 until January 31 (which the EU27 are not compelled to agree to). In other words, more can-kicking.

Soul Requiem wrote:Whenever a general election happens isn't relevant, Johnson will win with a majority and be left to do as he so pleased, unless Labour find a new leader there's very little way around that.

Soul Requiem wrote:I didn't say a vote of no confidence.

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:I didn't say a vote of no confidence.

You didnt need to, they’re the same thing.

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:I didn't say a vote of no confidence.

You didnt need to, they’re the same thing.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:I didn't say a vote of no confidence.

You didnt need to, they’re the same thing.

They're the complete opposite in fact.

JuliusHMarx wrote:BJ clearly from day one did not want a deal and has done virtually nothing to try to get one, whilst trying to pretend that he is - only the most dense can't see through that transparency. Of course, those that want no deal still support him.
His problem is that his history of bluff, bluster, about-faces and lies means that no-one in Parliament trusts him e.g. they know he will change the date of the election after Parliament is dissolved, so won't agree to the GE.

Soul Requiem wrote:One is called by the government and the other is called against the government.

JuliusHMarx wrote:BJ clearly from day one did not want a deal and has done virtually nothing to try to get one, whilst trying to pretend that he is - only the most dense can't see through that transparency. Of course, those that want no deal still support him.
His problem is that his history of bluff, bluster, about-faces and lies means that no-one in Parliament trusts him e.g. they know he will change the date of the election after Parliament is dissolved, so won't agree to the GE.

Soul Requiem wrote:He wanted to have it before the 31st October, the longer things are delayed the more it plays into his hands that Labour are blocking brexit. He could always call for a vote of confidence in himself, be interesting to see what would happen then.

It Must Be Love wrote:While I agree Boris has screwed up, I agree with the points Duty and SR make.

Boris has made himself impotent. He has a majority of -20, and his (fake) negotiation tactic of threatening the EU with No Deal is out of the window, for now.

But I think the whole thing is a sham designed for Boris to convince Brexit Party voters to vote for him instead. Farage was praising Boris' decision to kick out the 20 MPs. There's a reason they sent out Rees Mogg on the eve of the vote yesterday, despite knowing his arrogance would make it even more likely they'll lose the vote.

The way it stands I see Tories getting 40% if we have a Oct 14th GE, with Labour on 28% or so. Whether that translates into a majority is another matter, but along with the DUP they'll probably cross the line like last time.
One strategy that could save Labour is if they delay the election to Novemeber, the image of Boris being forced to extend Brexit could play into their hands. Depends on the perception of BP voters, would they blame Boris for extension?
Also we may have a recession confirmed when UK Q3 GDP is announced, that would be mid Oct but after Oct 14th I believe.

So Oct 14th election suits Tories, Nov election suits Labour. My belief is either way Tories will easily be the biggest party, but that doesn't mean they'll win power. We could end up with, Labour 250 + SNP 50 + Lib 30 = 330 vs Tory 300 + DUP 10 + BP 5 = 315. So Corbyn PM despite Tory +50/vs Labour.

It Must Be Love wrote:The way it stands I see Tories getting 40% if we have a Oct 14th GE, with Labour on 28% or so. Whether that translates into a majority is another matter, but along with the DUP they'll probably cross the line like last time. .

Duty281 wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:The way it stands I see Tories getting 40% if we have a Oct 14th GE, with Labour on 28% or so. Whether that translates into a majority is another matter, but along with the DUP they'll probably cross the line like last time. .

If that happened, it would almost certainly result in a big outright parliamentary majority for the Tories.

No name Bertie wrote:Whatever happens next - let's say a general election is called and a Labour - LibDem  Coalition get into power - and either a new EU referendum (Labour policy?) is called or Brexit is simply revoked (LibDem policy) - then the Conservative Party survives to fight another day.  

It Must Be Love wrote:I only see one way out that doesn't end in disaster for the country at the next election:

-Out of those 20 sacked Tory rebels (now independents) who blocked No Deal, atleast 10 win re-election
-Tories and DUP get 315 seats, needing those 10 independents to form a government.
-Boris makes cosmetic changes to May's WA, and it passes House of Commons (20 Labour MPs have now pledged to vote for it).
-No Deal Brexit would lead to long term serious economic damage to our country (https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/)
-Corbyn and SNP in a coalition would bring about far-left policies which would also destroy the economy.

Duty281 wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:The way it stands I see Tories getting 40% if we have a Oct 14th GE, with Labour on 28% or so. Whether that translates into a majority is another matter, but along with the DUP they'll probably cross the line like last time. .

If that happened, it would almost certainly result in a big outright parliamentary majority for the Tories.

CaledonianCraig wrote:It is crystal clear what BJ's agenda is. Some in the HoC spotted this months ago - running down the clock in a bid for his No Deal. He has been in power for weeks now and by all accounts he has held no meaningful talks AT ALL on getting a new deal. Brexit is the biggest issue the UK has faced for generations and yet he has done nothing to  suggest he is remotely interested in getting a deal. Whats more he blatantly lies saying progress has been made in talks when clearly none has gone on according to many in the know in the EU.