QF2 - Match Thread - New Zealand v Ireland - 19/10/19 - K/O 11:15 BST

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

Thought I'd get these made nice and early for a few reasons - but one being that we're already now looking ahead to the QFs with several teams having finished their group stage, so it's all heating up for the proper knockout stuff...barring any more disruption.

NZ



Team: B Barrett; Reece, Goodhue, Lienert-Brown, Bridge; Mo'unga, Smith; Moody, Taylor, Laulala, Retallick, Whitelock; Savea, Cane, Reid.

Replacements: Coles, Tuungafasi, Ta'avao, S Barrett, Todd, Perenara, Williams, J Barrett.


Ireland



Team: Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Henshaw, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, James Ryan, O'Mahony; Van der Flier, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Beirne, Ruddock, McGrath, Carbery, Larmour.



Venue: Tokyo
Referee: Nigel Owens
AR1: Pascal Gauzere
AR2: Angus Gardiner
TMO: Graham Hughes

[Taylorman]

Oh no not phone it in Garces!

[Old Man]

Schmidt watches everything for ideas. Hansen is just talking himself up as usual, it does come across a bit desperate though.

"Steve Hansen warns Joe Schmidt: 'We might be able to set him up'"

Love it...Run Joe run...

I wonder whether the coach banter actually ever bare any fruit.

[SecretFly]

Sexton...usually quite drone, drone, serious drone in interview, sounds positively buoyant and so laid back in his most recent press conference.

Strange disconnect between most Irish observers/media (at home and in Japan) perception of the team and the Irish squad's opinion of itself.  To paraphrase Sexton, 'Yeah maybe some of the Japan game was disappointing but we knew very well how good Japan are and if you don't play well enough that [loss] could happen.'  
So breezy.  No worries.  We lost to Japan.  So be it.  Onwards.

You might say delusional.... as some hacks undoubtedly will, or you could say some quite resolute spliff-zen confidence levels in camp.  Almost as if everything is going to plan.... including that Japan loss.....

[Taylorman]

Barnes- Ire vs NZ (hmm- think he reffed the last time we lost one of these
Piper- Wal Fra
Owens- Oz Eng
Poite- SA Japan

[SecretFly]

Which Barnes will turn up?  The one that the ABs don't like or the one that don't like the Irish?


Hmmmm...over to 606's resident psychological evaluation professionals for allllllllll the details.

[Old Man]

Barnes- Ire vs NZ (hmm- think he reffed the last time we lost one of these  
Piper- Wal Fra
Owens- Oz Eng
Poite- SA Japan

Here we go again, Poite. I hope Rassie trained for the inevitable 13 man game.

[SecretFly]

Yep, Poite is now red carding captains who speak to him with an enquiringly tone.

[Taylorman]

Which Barnes will turn up?  The one that the ABs don't like or the one that don't like the Irish?


Hmmmm...over to 606's resident psychological evaluation professionals for allllllllll the details.

Don't think it matters who the Ref is...hows that?

(which is true, it shouldnt... )

[SecretFly]

Which Barnes will turn up?  The one that the ABs don't like or the one that don't like the Irish?


Hmmmm...over to 606's resident psychological evaluation professionals for allllllllll the details.

Don't think it matters who the Ref is...hows that?

(which is true, it shouldnt... )

You choose to quote a very intelligent gentleman......

[Guest]

Don't think Nigel will get the final.  He was corrected once of twice in his last game by video evidence and other officials. I seemed to notice that anyway.
Authority weakening perhaps.  Think his more 'relaxed' personal readings might be frowned on this time.

Agreed. Can't have a Welsh ref reffing Wales.

[Taylorman]

Yep, Poite is now red carding captains who speak to him with an enquiringly tone.

Hoopers gone then

[Taylorman]

Lawrence Dellaglio says he thinks Ireland will win- speaking from his heart not his head as he 'senses' something...

NZ TAB has 1.19 NZ, 4.35 Ireland with 13 and over 1.83, under at 2.80...get yer money on Ireland in NZ if you can.

(Might have some of that myself, may as well get them to pay for the drowned spirits! )

[Guest]

Nigel Owens, beauty

[Old Man]

Good appointment, he will let a lot go.

[LondonTiger]

Owens appointed ref for this. Officials updated in OP.

[Taylorman]

Yes, teaches me to trust a Refs confirmed FB post...

[Taylorman]

This is where the Irish winning last year really becomes useful. ABs can use it like it was last week, and getting one back is something they tend to specialise in.

Chicago the ABs were beaten, so two weeks later the Irish had every chance to nail that advantage in, at home, having every reason to be confident.

ABs having lost, walk into the den, and win.

Oz, Perth, 47-26 winners, easy. Head to Eden park, confident, Bledisloe on the line. 36-0 loss.

There are many like it, so many no one has one two tests in a row since 2009- attitude being the key.

Only pity here is that the Irish win wasn’t last week, where the pain would still be fresh.

Oh well, maybe they can pretend that it was.

Or is it Ireland to win two in a row?

This weekend is going to be great!

[Collapse2005]

Not not I was hoping for, would have much preferred Garces.

[SecretFly]

Well that was a whole night's banter wasted.

[Taylorman]

Ha ha,
I know. And I thought FBook was a reliable source.

[SecretFly]

Hmmm.  Now that we have Nige, I'm honestly not so sure I want him.


Oh well, call my hesitancy nerves.

Still don't have them though really.  I've become very calm about the Irish team, even when they lost to Japan.  

In any case, there seems to be a better mood now all over.  Everyone seems to be in a bit better mood after the slog and/or tension of the pools - and I'm not just talking about Ireland.  The coaches even seem to be enjoying the new terrain, however briefly, with the banter and side swipes.
Of course everything is potentially very brief now.  If you don't win, you don't linger.  You're gone home, and for four sides it won't be too long after the pool Exiteers.
I think that realisation that the true nature of knock out rugby has arrived has actually calmed everyone in preparation for the battles ahead.  Pools are nervy because teams jostle for position, so even winning isn't fully satisfactory if your nearest rival also won their game and by a bigger margin.
Not much point in nerves now though.  Just try to play as hard as you can for a full 80..... or for those under Barnes, a full 98.

[Ninjarugby]

Steve Hansen yesterday said he will try bluff Schmidt as he knows how much time effort he puts into analyzing his opponents.
Its common knowledge that the AB's will try and unsettle JS to knock him off his game. England successfully unsettled Earls in the 6 Nations & used that momentum to get their lead which Ireland never recovered from. It will be interesting if that is a tactic this weekend and can Schmidt use it to his advantage early in the game. Knowing that Sexton could be targeted early on might give Ireland a chance to use him as a decoy to create some space.
Schmidt v Hansen over 4 games has an aggregate of 87 - 83 (2-2), and if Ireland were ever to get to a semi-final what a way to do it.
Furlong has 3 wins & a draw against NZ & if I'm not mistaken Andy Farrell's record as a defense coach is even better with 4 wins and a draw (1 with England).
The intensity of the 1st 10 minutes will be crazy as all WC that's where Ireland have really set the tone.
I also think the Scotland v Japan game confirmed that Japans class was no one off or fluke.
The New Zealand Herald seem to be ramping up the pressure & I'm sure the Irish will love the underdog tag.
Who to start at 6 & 15, also? I think if we are going to attack from he start then it has to be Lamour at 15 & I think Ruddock could be a surprise inclusion.

[Collapse2005]

England successfully injured Earls early in the game.

[Ninjarugby]

England successfully injured Earls early in the game.

Well I was going to being up the Sam Kane 'tackle' on Robbie Henshaw and more importantly what color card is that will the new and shiny rules from World Rugby.... but I won't,

[Guest]

Some goot stats on winning percentage.

I'm sold. Ireland to win.

[Collapse2005]

Kearney will start at 15. His form has also been very good and he has also scored two tries in two games at the RWC and will do the fielding better than anyone else. Just dont ask him to tackle.

Larmour is also good but based on Schmidt's comments after the Samoa game he doesnt see him as anything more than a utility back at this RWC.

[Guest]

That's the issue. 'Don't ask him to tackle'. He might not even get close enough to Reece and Barrett and Bridge to attempt one.

Larmour to come on at 50 if it is all going to pot. Looks a decent threat to me, but can't do it all on his own. Needs a Henshaw or someone who's a powerful runner helping him out on his shoulder, or feeding him the ball late.

[Collapse2005]

Hopefully he (Kearney) wont need to as they will need to breach the first line of defense first or get the ball wide.

[Taylorman]

Expect more from Sam Cane I’d say, for me the missing factor from last years match. Ireland will clearly try and shut NZ down. Disagreeing heads will clash right there.

Sexton knows NZ well. He’ll be targeted, but not obsessively so, ‘watched’ rather.

His occasional switch to the blind and inside passes to runners, or the popular chips everyone’s doing these days seem to be his favourite plays these days and Cane, Read and Savea will be covering the running off hopefully.

Don’t see the ball going 10 to wing much.

Simple for Ireland, they must lead the scoring early.

Not sure who Hansen will go with at 12 but Crotty has gone well vs Ireland before. I suspect SBW will, but I think he’s too slow for the game now, reacts slowly, runs slowly, there for impact only. The rest of the side picks itself.

Laulala
Coles
Moody
Whitelock
Retallick
Cane
Read
Savea
Smith
Mo’unga
Reece
Crotty/ SBW
ALBrown
Bridge
Barrett.

I think Scott Barrett is the only other than might force a change, he’s gone very well so far, particularly in support play and mobility, which we’ll get off the bench anyway. All depends on how Retallick is shaping up, the missing factor so far for the ABs for three months bar his mandatory 30 last week.

Now completely injury free Cane says the side is ready and fizzing to go. Can’t wait.

[Collapse2005]

Looks a pretty strong side alright. Expect Mo'unga to be put under a lot of pressure by VdF.

[Cyril]

I don’t recall how ‘England successfully inured Earls’ in the 6 Nations. Sounds a bit sinister. Care to expand on that, Guns?

[Taylorman]

Looks a pretty strong side alright. Expect Mo'unga to be put under a lot of pressure by VdF.

Wouldn’t expect anything else. In fact I’d expect all our ball carriers to be put under pressure. Because if they’re not, they’ll be off and runn8ng.

[Collapse2005]

I wonder will Hansen lob Ben Smith into the starting back line to add a bit more experience. Could happen.

[Taylorman]

I wonder will Hansen lob Ben Smith into the starting back line to add a bit more experience. Could happen.

No chance (IMO) In fact I'd say that will be a shock selection. The side oozes experience at 9/now 10/ 12/13 and 15. The new wings will be told to go for anything and everything that moves.

[Guest]

Mo'unga is the obvious weak link here. No RWC experience, only in his first season as a starting test player. Pressure can do all sorts to players. Opposite Sexton, it could be a clash of old v new. Having Ben Smith to come on at 15 is a lifesaver if they need to move Beauden to 10, but it ends the 2 playmaker experiment.

[Taylorman]

Mo'unga is the obvious weak link here. No RWC experience, only in his first season as a starting test player. Pressure can do all sorts to players. Opposite Sexton, it could be a clash of old v new. Having Ben Smith to come on at 15 is a lifesaver if they need to move Beauden to 10, but it ends the 2 playmaker experiment.

ha ha, love the ignorance. I agree with the old vs new though. Just hope ol' skinny legs Sexton lasts the match, he looks so brittle.

[Guest]

Not ignorance at all. You yourself have banged on about 'it's different at a RWC' and 'experience matters' etc. You're really falling on your sword with your hypocrisy these days. Almost like you're just making it up as you go along.

Nevers getting to you?

[Taylorman]

This guys funny, just the sort of thing I alluded to. The clowns come out and provide all the motivation in the world.

Not sure it beats the Ewen Mac "Bring your A game to Eden park" before getting thrashed by 40 but it goes close.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/rugby-world-cup/rwc-2019-japan/116611461/all-blacks-v-ireland--exireland-star-claims-current-all-blacks-not-at-same-level-as-last-two-rugby-world-cup-champions

'"Their key combinations are not as smooth or as settled, especially in the half-backs, midfield and back-row."'

[Gooseberry]

Simple for Ireland, they must lead the scoring early.

I'm no expert but pretty sure leading at the end is better

[Guest]

T's going off the deep end already. Going to be in pieces by kick off.

[Taylorman]

Not ignorance at all. You yourself have banged on about 'it's different at a RWC' and 'experience matters' etc. You're really falling on your sword with your hypocrisy these days. Almost like you're just making it up as you go along.

Nevers getting to you?

Absolutely the nerves are getting to me, if you're not excited by whats up this weekend then you may as well hop in your coffin now.

RWC experience matters? Of course it does. But not having attended yet doesnt automatically assume youre not going to play well as you are inferring.

Bad RWC is worse if thats all youve had, and thats all any Irish players have had. Sexton went out first knockout in 2011, and never played due to injury in 2015...all bad. He's been to two and has yet to make an ounce of impact. he might this time, but personally, I think Mo'unga will outplay him by a street.

[Taylorman]

Simple for Ireland, they must lead the scoring early.

I'm no expert but pretty sure leading at the end is better

True, something Ireland seem to have trouble with when they dont start well...

[SecretFly]

Perhaps the blueprint for NZ has been different but generally with Ireland, when in solid domineering form, they've usually actually started quite slow... as if using the first minutes of the game to complete warm up phase.  So yes, they can be caught by quality up tempo sides in those minutes.

Usually under Schmidt, Ireland have applied graduated increased pressure midway through a first half and try to find top intensity rhythm in the final 10 mins or so of that first half.  Then they try to maintain that intensity straight into the second half.  If it has achieved rewards of points on the board then they've usually closed up shop and settle down to mostly defensive mode for the remainder of the game to protect what they gained.

Starting well is not really a common feature of Ireland's blueprint over the years.  The exception might be have been NZ out of strategic necessity.

[Collapse2005]

Not ignorance at all. You yourself have banged on about 'it's different at a RWC' and 'experience matters' etc. You're really falling on your sword with your hypocrisy these days. Almost like you're just making it up as you go along.

Nevers getting to you?

Absolutely the nerves are getting to me, if you're not excited by whats up this weekend then you may as well hop in your coffin now.

RWC experience matters? Of course it does. But not having attended yet doesnt automatically assume youre not going to play well as you are inferring.

Bad RWC is worse if thats all youve had, and thats all any Irish players have had. Sexton went out first knockout in 2011, and never played due to injury in 2015...all bad. He's been to two and has yet to make an ounce of impact. he might this time, but personally, I think Mo'unga will outplay him by a street.

This is pretty much Sextons first ever RWC knock out match. He came on for 20 minutes in 2011 and didnt play in 2015 because of injury.

Its also Mo'ungas first quarter final and he isnt particularly experienced so it will be interesting to see if he can handle the pressure. He has been a bit hot and cold so far in the big tests so will be keen to get off to a good start Im sure.

It will be an interesting match up.

[Taylorman]

Yes it will, thing is hes improved with every outing. His combination with Barrett is getting stronger. A lot of that will be the improving environment around him- they're 'all' playing pretty well. He'll be fine.

Sexton has had proven ups and downs, particularly versus the ABs where hes been both good and poor.

Good to see him talking it up though. He and Farrell are exuding a lot of confidence. Good to see.

[Taylorman]

Perhaps the blueprint for NZ has been different but generally with Ireland, when in solid domineering form, they've usually actually started quite slow... as if using the first minutes of the game to complete warm up phase.  So yes, they can be caught by quality up tempo sides in those minutes.

Usually under Schmidt, Ireland have applied graduated increased pressure midway through a first half and try to find top intensity rhythm in the final 10 mins or so of that first half.  Then they try to maintain that intensity straight into the second half.  If it has achieved rewards of points on the board then they've usually closed up shop and settle down to mostly defensive mode for the remainder of the game to protect what they gained.

Starting well is not really a common feature of Ireland's blueprint over the years.  The exception might be have been NZ out of strategic necessity.

Yes agree in terms of NZ. But for their losses (not just NZ) they have an obvious track record in not pulling back leads.

Theres also evidence that the ABs are slow starters and fast finishers.

Its a clear cut pattern for this match, and a dominating possession, territory based gameplan is typically stronger at the start, when everyones in sync. Later on, structures can be broken down more easily.

[Taylorman]

The 1014 boys are on the job...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/rugby-world-cup/rwc-2019-japan/116615119/all-blacks-v-ireland-joe-schmidts-plan-revealed-before-rugby-world-cup-clash

[Cyril]

Are those guys a spoof/sarcastic website? It just seems like they always post the obvious. Is it meant to be real or humorous? I can’t believe it’s just ‘regular’ analysis as it’s so facile.

Apologies if it’s just a joke I’ve missed and it’s like the Daily Mash etc!

[Taylorman]

Some of their stuff is very good analysis.

Havent watched this one yet.

[Cyril]

Ah, just seen the site it’s on. Similar quality to Wales Online.

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