QF2 - Match Thread - New Zealand v Ireland - 19/10/19 - K/O 11:15 BST

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

Thought I'd get these made nice and early for a few reasons - but one being that we're already now looking ahead to the QFs with several teams having finished their group stage, so it's all heating up for the proper knockout stuff...barring any more disruption.

NZ



Team: B Barrett; Reece, Goodhue, Lienert-Brown, Bridge; Mo'unga, Smith; Moody, Taylor, Laulala, Retallick, Whitelock; Savea, Cane, Reid.

Replacements: Coles, Tuungafasi, Ta'avao, S Barrett, Todd, Perenara, Williams, J Barrett.


Ireland



Team: Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Henshaw, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, James Ryan, O'Mahony; Van der Flier, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Beirne, Ruddock, McGrath, Carbery, Larmour.



Venue: Tokyo
Referee: Nigel Owens
AR1: Pascal Gauzere
AR2: Angus Gardiner
TMO: Graham Hughes

[Rugby Fan]

Ah, just seen the site it’s on. Similar quality to Wales Online.

The 1014 guys were good a couple of seasons ago, trying to build up their own site, and releasing regular YouTube videos. Then a NZ broadcaster took them on as an analysis team, and Spark have done the same for the World Cup.

This was good news for them, as they got access to live footage to illustrate their points (an issue which has derailed several Rugby YouTube channels, including popular ones like Squidge). The bad news is, they were largely cut off to everyone outside New Zealand, where there were no such rights. As far as I can see, their twitter and YouTube channels are now barely updated, and the only stuff you see is anodyne content like that old video on Stuff.

[SecretFly]

Didn't watch this one either but as a twosome they've been the real deal as regards analysis to a depth not even dreamed up by the usual A list panelists on TV coverage.
Obviously two different dynamics in play and different time constraints but these two are no skit - they've used stats and play breakdown charts quite effectively in the past to show the detail of styles and strategies of various teams

[rodders]

Right folks, assuming that as expected we are 8-10 points up at the 50 minute mark against an under cooked ABs side, does Schmidt empty the bench to keep Sexton, Murray and the front row fresh or go for the jugular?

My expected team -

15 Kearney
14 Earls
13 Ringrose
12 Farrell/Henshaw
11 Stockdale
10 Sexton
9 Murray
8 Stander
7 VDF
6 POM
5 Henderson
4 Ryan
3 Furlong
2 Best
1 Healy

Kilcoyne, Cronin, Porter, Bierne, Ruddock, McGrath, Carbury, Larmour

[SecretFly]

8 to 10 points up with 30 minutes to go in a World Cup QF against the ABs?

Release the Bench and watch Sexton, Murray and the other boys walk to the sidelines with smiles on their faces, doing the old high clap back to the adoring crowd..........

........ then watch Hell decend in a black cloud of Doom all the way from Mordor.

[Collapse2005]

Haha Rodders. In fairness Carbery usually closes out the games v the ABs and we won out last game against them without Murray. I do also expect the front row to be replaced around the 50-60 minute mark.

I wonder would Schmidt start Farrell at 13. He played there for Ireland v Argentina in 2017 and played a blinder. Henshaw at 12.

[SecretFly]

Is Henshaw quickly becoming O'Brien?  Always looming in shadow based on reputation but kinda beginning to creak in reality and becoming more a frequent injury replacement headache than a consoling presence in the starting team?  
When certain players get injured and therefore frustrated, each time they come back, like O'Brien, they have a tendancy to overreach and almost welcome another injury with their unbridled intensity.
We'll need intensity for sure, but we'll also need chosen players to last the distance, right to the final whistle if need be.  So intensity has to have self imposed brakes too through the game, when collisions might be more foolhardy than tactical.

[alanmackie6]

Anyone have the team yet apart from state ing all three barrets were in the squad
ny herald sent info only to subscribers

[rodders]

Haha Rodders. In fairness Carbery usually closes out the games v the ABs and we won out last game against them without Murray. I do also expect the front row to be replaced around the 50-60 minute mark.

I wonder would Schmidt start Farrell at 13. He played there for Ireland v Argentina in 2017 and played a blinder. Henshaw at 12.

Nah can't see Ringrose not starting, he's on top form. Henshaw looked a bit rusty against Samoa so I guess they will see how well he recovers before deciding to go with him or Farrell. Farrell and Ringrose looked a good combo in the warm ups but would think if Henshaw is fit he'd be favourite to start.

The risk would be if Henshaw can't do 80 minutes, do you lose Larmour from the bench for Farrell?

[Guest]

Don't think you can leave Larmour out. Same for Carbery. This is likely to need a comeback from Ireland and those players are the spark to do it.

[Ninjarugby]

For a few of the players/Schmidt there is no tomorrow. Its last chance saloon. I'd throw the kitchen sink at the AB's & when they recover from that I'd throw another kitchen sink at them only bigger.
I'd personally have Scannell on the bench in front of Cronan & I wouldn't have Farrell on in the match day 23 at all. Ireland have to play the perfect game with no mistakes & Farrell/Klein as good as they are do not make my 23.
This could easily be the last WC game for Schmidt, Sexton, Healy, Earls & Best & that warrants going into overdrive. Been waiting too long to see an Irish team arrive to a 1/4 final with a good fit squad & given the substitutions last week fresh! This team is better than 2011, they are better coached & drilled. If they have a decent crack at the AB's & lose I don't mind but definitely don't want to lose because of a silly mistake.
If our back row deliver we win the game but POM/VdF & Stander have to beat for me a better back row.
I think we'll need a perfect line-out & scrum so pressures on!
I'd go after their inexperienced 11 & 14 too.

[Collapse2005]

Rob Herring has replaced Sean Cronin in the squad due to injury

[SecretFly]

Poor Cronin. What a thankless International career he's had.

Had we played rugby a different way (faster/looser) I think he'd have been pretty indispensable, and a bit of a world star at this point.
But it wasn't to be.

[Taylorman]

Anyone have the team yet apart from state ing all three barrets were in the squad
ny herald sent info only to subscribers

Haven't seen the team yet but will post it. All three will be in the 23. Jordie covers about four positions. Don't this k Scott will start...he could, he's playing the mobile game they want, but prib on the bench. Maybe on for retallick who's raw and might be told he's off at 40 do go for it.

[Taylorman]

Right folks, assuming that as expected we are 8-10 points up at the 50 minute mark against an under cooked ABs side, does Schmidt empty the bench to keep Sexton, Murray and the front row fresh or go for the jugular?

My expected team -

15 Kearney
14 Earls
13 Ringrose
12 Farrell/Henshaw
11 Stockdale
10 Sexton
9 Murray
8 Stander
7 VDF
6 POM
5 Henderson
4 Ryan
3 Furlong
2 Best
1 Healy

Kilcoyne, Cronin, Porter, Bierne, Ruddock, McGrath, Carbury, Larmour

For what its worth Rodders:
I'm guessing they'll be up against:

15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Ardie Savea, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Scott barrett, 20 Shannon Frizell, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Sonny Bill Williams, 23 Ben Smith

Where it could change is SBW in for Crotty, Jordie to the bench instead of Ben Smith, but I hope neither happens. Crotty is far more of a defensive manager than SBW is, a bit like Conrad Smith was, and SBW is more impact than start. Its about now we could be dreading not bringing Laumape who's continued a stunning year in Mitre 10.

[Taylorman]

Be interested to know how Schmidt is handling the analysis of the now ABs given they'll be a very different side than they faced last year.

In a World cup year it is not like the ABs to have that many new starters from previously:

15 Barrett instead of Smith
14 Reece >> Reiko
13 ALB >> Goodhue
11 Bridge >> Naholo
10 Mo'unga >> Barrett
7 Savea >> Cane
6 Cane >> Frizzell
3 Laulala >> Owens
2 Coles >> Taylor (though that was largely injury related)

9 starting changes in 12 months is a fair chunk, 4 new or relatively new. In 2015 we debuted in one player Nehe Milner Skudder.

England also look different as well, mainly due to returned injureds.

[Taylorman]

AB's named:

All Blacks team to play Ireland in Tokyo on Saturday (11:15pm, NZ time).

All Blacks: Beauden Barrett, Sevu Reece, Jack Goodhue, Anton Lienert-Brown, George Bridge, Richie Mo'unga, Aaron Smith; Kieran Read (c), Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Nepo Laulala, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody.

Reserves: Dane Coles, Ofa Tuungafasi, Angus Ta'avao, Scott Barrett, Matt Todd, TJ Perenara, Sonny Bill Williams, Jordie Barrett.

I see he's starting Taylor instead of Coles and Goodhue's on, effectively 2 x 13's as thats where both mostly play.

As expected Ben's Smiths right out, unfortunately. Jordie covers 10 as well as wing fullback and even midfield if needed.

Who'd have thought a year ago neither Ben Smith, Crotty nor Reiko Ioane wouldnt make the final 23 on form.

Coles, SBW, TJP, and I guess Jordie make it a good impact bench. Todd? Not there for impact but as a fetcher. Thought Frizzell would have been better off the bench.

[The Great Aukster]

The ABs don't have a settled look about them, unlike 2015. The set up looks like they're going to spin it wide at every opportunity because they don't fancy a tight game.
ALB is no 12, but he might get away with it now Ali has been got rid of.

[Guest]

Good call on Goodhue tbh. Crotty's a steady player but Goodhue can have a real go at the Irish midfield. It's interesting to see that approach. Basically 10 and 15 are playing 10 and 12/13 almost, with the two centres very much the outside men or the ones running off either of the two. The wingers are then inside/outside them. Like a two pronged attack, wth options. The only other teams doing this are England, most obviously with Ford, Farrell, Daly, and Slade, not all at the same time though, and Australia, with Toomua, JOC, Lealiifano.

Codie Taylor continues his march forwards and is really threatening that 'best hooker in the world' tag. Really impressed with him, have been for a while. Coles for the impact, some fire and spite from the bench. Rough time for Ireland. Not surprised with the backs options, thought Barrett would get the nod over Ben Smith - just the way he'd picked him at 10 shows the priorities there. He's the second playmaker if Mo'unga fails. Beauden to 10, his brother to 15. Talk about difficulty in stopping that - which one's which when they're going top speed.

Tough ask for Ireland. Lots of impact on the bench, maybe not from Todd though. Presumably a more technical option if they're not getting the impact/dealing with POM. Don't think it changes too much for Ireland. They will sort of know what's coming in attack, but have to hold on to the ball and dominate possession either way.

Interesting to see what Ireland go for. Feel like they need to pick Larmour.

[Guest]

Agree they aren't settled, at all. The 2 playmaker thing is the key. It looks so much weaker without DMac. He was the difference in Twickenham last autumn. If you can rattle either or both, Jordie Barrett is decent but not top drawer for me. Looks better in the wider channels.

This has all the hallmarks of the Lions tour all over again though. Bringing through talented young blood, bringing the progression planning through, yet not having enough quality/stability to get over the line. I think an in form England beats thi ABs team. Ireland? Not so sure. A bit too old and slow for me, at least what we've seen so far.

[Taylorman]

Yeah fair assessment, Taylor is more core to the hooker role and a strong start from the pack against an obviously tough Irish pack suits, with Coles coming on full of running. Coles is also more likely to get into card trouble so we don’t want to be at 14 after ten minutes.

In going for Goodhue over Crotty and Jordie over Ben the accountant Hansen really is throwing the young and enthusiastic out there, massive experience giving way to raw, even unrefined, energy.

Going for the doctor Hansen is.

[Old Man]

Crotty’s defensive organisation will be missed though. His calm experience counts for a lot in his consistency of performance

[Taylorman]

Crotty’s defensive organisation will be missed though. His calm experience counts for a lot in his consistency of performance

Yes that’s the consensus here. It’s a Hansen thing though lately to back new talent if they’re looking backable.

Reece and Bridge in for Reiko and Smith. Goodhue for Crotty and SBW.

ALBs back to his 2016 form which was special. Mo’unga in the pivot role after only a few tests.

They’re big calls but have the potential to blow the side away from all others. From a pure skills and pace perspective this side is way ahead of any other, miles ahead.

[Taylorman]

Rains expected, 80% chance at least and the last rain affected game the ABs played was the Oz match at Eden park so it’s ‘average’ news. Good that they can handle either.

Irish team named in half hour.

[asoreleftshoulder]

I'm getting a lot of confidence in the Irish setup,they're targeting the quarter final and don't seem fazed by the loss to Japan at all. Normally by now all the Irish journalists would have their "predicted" teams out but it looks like all leaks from the camp have been plugged.
I think we're in for a huge performance from Ireland, whether that's good enough we'll have to wait and see but this team will leave the field with no regrets.

[Taylorman]

Ireland named

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best (capt.)
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Iain Henderson
5. James Ryan
6. Peter O'Mahony
7. Josh Van der Flier
8. CJ Stander
9. Conor Murray
10. Johnny Sexton
11. Jacob Stockdale
12. Robbie Henshaw
13. Garry Ringrose
14. Keith Earls
15. Rob Kearney

16. Niall Scannell
17. Dave Kilcoyne
18. Andrew Porter
19. Tadhg Beirne
20. Rhys Ruddock
21. Luke McGrath
22. Joey Carbery
23. Jordan Larmour

[Collapse2005]

Kearney and Pom start, not a bad side.

[Taylorman]

Tis interesting because a Hansen selection would definitely have Larmour starting. The AB view is it’s make or break time, get players out there that will provide a point of difference. Larmour fits that bill.

So like their game plan, their selection is ultra conservative. It’s like they’re saying we’re not having any of that excitement stuff, we’ve picked die hard side to bore you to death...in a nice way of course.

Hansen’s gone for raw youth and energy, also to match the likely game plan. He’s taking all the risks, and therefore looking for a bigger payout.

A Schmidt selection would have Ben Smith and Ryan Crotty. Instead Hansen’s gone for a couple of teenagers, so to speak.

[Poorfour]

We will see if he's right. Personally, I would have wanted Smith to cover Ireland's kick chase. But I guess we will see what the youngsters are made of.

[Old Man]

Not sure grinding to death is necessarily bore you to death. I have been watching the Irish this World Cup, and whilst many suggest they have a one dimensional (boring) game plan, the truth is whilst their ruck play does frustrate opposition teams and me personally, the fact is they can be very effective when controlling possession.

Calling them boring in my view isn’t entirely correct, frustrating to opposition yes, but not boring.

[Taylorman]

True, and so different from a Hansen’s own 2015 side where the mountain of experience in McCaw, Kaino, Carter, Nonu and Smith was the way. This is such a contrast but it really does reflect Hansen’s increasing manner over the years to back new talent.

This AB selection is just about unheard of for such a big occasion, so much inexperience. You’d think at the beginning of the year if you need someone ultra reliable like Ben Smith to be around it would be for the three knockouts, if they make them.

But nope, he’s there, fit, ready, rested, and not wanted.

Veery different approach that has both backfire and innovative written all over it.

[Old Man]

I like the idea of new combinations, it brings unpredictability, an unknown element to the irish.

[Taylorman]

Yes, Schmidt won’t have written this selection down in his analysis.

[Guest]

Rains expected, 80% chance at least and the last rain affected game the ABs played was the Oz match at Eden park so it’s ‘average’ news.

It's absolutely fantastic news. For Ireland.

[Guest]

Like the Irish lock options. Think it's the 2 best you have, with the big red legend on the bench to do something special if needed.

Can see an upset brewing here.

[eirebilly]

Strong team for Ireland but I would have started with McGrath over Murray as I feel he is the faster distributer from 9 and I feel that will be very important against the AB's.

Think that Conway should have either started or be on the bench.

[rodders]

So no real surprises from Schmidt, I think he's known his first 23 for some time but players have been managed through the pool stages. I think Aki and Cronin aside this is a full strength side.

I think there are some doubts over the match fitness of Henshaw and we haven't seen Jonny do the 80min yet but it looks like the rest are finding form at the right time.

If we start well then we have a good chance, I'm not sure the rain will help us as the ABs will be more comfortable handling in wet conditions.

We haven't seen a big performance from Ireland in this RWC, arguably not in 2019 so far, I can't believe Joe and Rory will go out on a whymper so I'm expecting an epic performance win or lose....

[Collapse2005]

Tis interesting because a Hansen selection would definitely have Larmour starting. The AB view is it’s make or break time, get players out there that will provide a point of difference. Larmour fits that bill.

So like their game plan, their selection is ultra conservative. It’s like they’re saying we’re not having any of that excitement stuff, we’ve picked die hard side to bore you to death...in a nice way of course.

Hansen’s gone for raw youth and energy, also to match the likely game plan. He’s taking all the risks, and therefore looking for a bigger payout.

A Schmidt selection would have Ben Smith and Ryan Crotty. Instead Hansen’s gone for a couple of teenagers, so to speak.

Ultra conservative is a stretch, some very exciting and positive players in the Ireland side. Kearney has scored as may tries as Larmour (2) in this RWC and Stockdale and Earls are good try scorers themselves. Ringrose is also a master at breaking the line with footwork. Some good ball carrying forwards too.

[Taylorman]

Like the Irish lock options. Think it's the 2 best you have, with the big red legend on the bench to do something special if needed.

Can see an upset brewing here.

Interesting, cos I see a comfortable AB win, with Ireland giving up early into the second half.

[Collapse2005]

Hopefully whatever new moves Schmidt introduces for this game will pay off first time of asking.

[Collapse2005]

Like the Irish lock options. Think it's the 2 best you have, with the big red legend on the bench to do something special if needed.

Can see an upset brewing here.

Interesting, cos I see a comfortable AB win, with Ireland giving up early into the second half.

Yes but that how you always see it Taylorman.

[Collapse2005]

Rains expected, 80% chance at least and the last rain affected game the ABs played was the Oz match at Eden park so it’s ‘average’ news.

It's absolutely fantastic news. For Ireland.

I dont think it will matter much, it was dry and sunny when we beat them in November.

One thing the ABs will have to contend with is that Ireland fans are highly likely to outnumber AB fans significantly.

[Taylorman]

New moves? You’re expecting new moves?

[rodders]

Like the Irish lock options. Think it's the 2 best you have, with the big red legend on the bench to do something special if needed.

Can see an upset brewing here.

Interesting, cos I see a comfortable AB win, with Ireland giving up early into the second half.

Yes but that how you always see it Taylorman.

I think it is interesting how much Ireland have been written off, presumably off the back of losing to Japan and the hiding by England in the warm ups.

For me there are still real question marks over where the side are at, versus 2018, but against Wales, Scotland and Samoa particularly we showed glimpses of how good we can be, whilst looking like we were holding back a bit at times. I'm hoping that we have more a lot more in the tank and can bring it out on Saturday...

[Guest]

Like the Irish lock options. Think it's the 2 best you have, with the big red legend on the bench to do something special if needed.

Can see an upset brewing here.

Interesting, cos I see a comfortable AB win, with Ireland giving up early into the second half.

The ABs have failed when they've been targeted and tested. The Lions Tour, Ireland in the autumn, and the Boks and Wallabies in the RC.

Maybe it's asking too much of Schmidt, but surely he has something up his sleeve for the ABs? The Irish bench is packed full of 'flair' options in Carbery, Larmour, and Beirne. Just...got a feeling. The rain. The Pressure. The week off. The lack of experience at RWCs/test matches for NZ. The no expectations for Ireland. Could be exactly the game Ireland want, with a last quarter flourish getting them over the line.

It's as beatable as the ABs have been since probably 2003.

[Taylorman]

Rains expected, 80% chance at least and the last rain affected game the ABs played was the Oz match at Eden park so it’s ‘average’ news.

It's absolutely fantastic news. For Ireland.

I dont think it will matter much, it was dry and sunny when we beat them in November.

One thing the ABs will have to contend with is that Ireland fans are highly likely to outnumber AB fans significantly.

ABs don’t get their fans to win matches for them. Kinda why they have a better record than the home side at just about every single venue across the globe, except for a couple of grounds in SA that is.

[Old Man]

Ireland’s form is a bit off, but with that comes the knowledge Ireland will most certainly lift for this encounter.

Hansen has picked a talented team, but with some sense of experimentation to it.

If you picked only on recent form the odds are with NZ, but we all know knock out matches are never a forgone conclusion.

[Taylorman]

Ireland’s form is a bit off, but with that comes the knowledge Ireland will most certainly lift for this encounter.

Hansen has picked a talented team, but with some sense of experimentation to it.

If you picked only on recent form the odds are with NZ, but we all know knock out matches are never a forgone conclusion.

Yep, it’s definitely high risk from Hansen but overall he tends to get these sorts of things right. Don’t think I’ve seen so many AB sides that no one has picked, this is another. I doubt you’ll find that 15 anywhere, mainly due to picking two normally outside centres in the midfield, and having neither of SBW or Crotty, two specialist and in form, experienced 12’s.

That aside, the potential to blow the game open, something this selection is clearly designed to do, remains.

[Engine#4]

Maybe this is Hansen's rope-a-Schmidt masterplan. Pick a side that looks ready to run at Ireland from the off ala England and Japan. Instead do what they usually do versus the better sides and kick the leather off the ball.

[Taylorman]

They could, Aaron Smiths kicking has been very good of late. I’m just hoping they don’t try and throw and catch every pass in the book in the first minute. Then they’ll just look clumsy and desperate.

[Collapse2005]

I expect the ABs to kick a lot, probably more than Ireland as usual.

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