Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

The best thing about our system is that every single person in the country gets an equal vote under equal circumstances. Unless a National ID card scheme is introduced this will just alienate poorer voters. Just another way to rig the system.

Soul Requiem wrote:I don't really see what this has to do with Brexit but whatever gets you off Pr4wn.

This sleazy, corrupt government was elected on the back of strong Brexit support. You know that, I know that. Johnson purged his party of most of the vocal remainers and now what's left?

This is corruption in action.

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:I don't really see what this has to do with Brexit but whatever gets you off Pr4wn.

This sleazy, corrupt government was elected on the back of strong Brexit support. You know that, I know that. Johnson purged his party of most of the vocal remainers and now what's left?

This is corruption in action.

The red wall voted based on strong Brexit support, it had little to no impact on lifelong Tory voters. You obviously go to the party conferences every year whilst I don't so who am I to argue with someone who knows so little about the actual voters.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:I don't really see what this has to do with Brexit but whatever gets you off Pr4wn.

This sleazy, corrupt government was elected on the back of strong Brexit support. You know that, I know that. Johnson purged his party of most of the vocal remainers and now what's left?

This is corruption in action.

The red wall voted based on strong Brexit support, it had little to no impact on lifelong Tory voters. You obviously go to the party conferences every year whilst I don't so who am I to argue with someone who knows so little about the actual voters.

You’ll notice Pr4wn never mentioned Tory voters, but Brexit voters. So mentioning the red wall voters isnt exactly the stinging point you think it is.

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:I don't really see what this has to do with Brexit but whatever gets you off Pr4wn.

This sleazy, corrupt government was elected on the back of strong Brexit support. You know that, I know that. Johnson purged his party of most of the vocal remainers and now what's left?

This is corruption in action.

If they're not Tory voters, then what are they?

Sounds like they've bottled it and this is all about to be reversed

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:And both Johnson and Rees-Mogg invoked Paterson's wife's suicide as they argued for the change. Appalling cynicism.

Why is that appalling? The Committee on Standards already accepted this as a mitigating factor in their recommendation.

Because it doesn't change the facts of the case. If he hadn't been doing something that is expressly forbidden for MPs to do, there would have been no investigation. That's the root cause of everything that has followed.

GSC wrote:Sounds like they've bottled it and this is all about to be reversed

Typical. But the public should never be allowed to forget this.

Derbymanc wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:And both Johnson and Rees-Mogg invoked Paterson's wife's suicide as they argued for the change. Appalling cynicism.

Why is that appalling? The Committee on Standards already accepted this as a mitigating factor in their recommendation.

Because if anything he's responsible for his wifes suicide and should have that added to the charges.

It's blatant corruption Duty and i'm getting tired of people accepting it and making excuses for it

That's a very low comment.

Paterson has gone. This government's ability to shoot itself in the foot really is something. Had they accepted the punishment he would have had a month at home and everybody would of forgotten all of this. Instead he's now gone, and 250 odd conservative MP's have just worked out they have voted publically to condone sleaze and corruption.

There is an argument that the whole process yesterday was not directly to do with Paterson, but was instead an attack on Kathryn Stone, the standards commissioner, who is also involved in other investigations including into Johnson himself.

It wouldn't have been quite as simple as a month at home and forgotten about - it would have probably triggered a by-election and headlines for days, though the Tories would have won comfortably - but I do agree that the government has handled this matter with its usual low standards and made a bad situation worse.

I think it is right that the standards commission is overhauled and I hope the Tories push on with that. I don't think it was right that Paterson's recommended punishment was tied in with this and neither was it right for the government to try to override his recommended punishment.

It's very dispiriting times with the standards of Parliament and its elected members being so low and tribalism continuing unabated and encouraged by numerous MPs. There's very little prospect, also, of the situation improving - I can't see why anyone would want to be an MP with its crap salary, minimal influence to do anything (unless you're in cabinet), inability to be an independent thinker as an MP has to adhere rigidly to what their party tells them, and you have to put up with tidal waves of appalling abuse from idiots online.

Duty281 wrote:It wouldn't have been quite as simple as a month at home and forgotten about - it would have probably triggered a by-election and headlines for days, though the Tories would have won comfortably - but I do agree that the government has handled this matter with its usual low standards and made a bad situation worse.

I think it is right that the standards commission is overhauled and I hope the Tories push on with that. I don't think it was right that Paterson's recommended punishment was tied in with this and neither was it right for the government to try to override his recommended punishment.

It's very dispiriting times with the standards of Parliament and its elected members being so low and tribalism continuing unabated and encouraged by numerous MPs. There's very little prospect, also, of the situation improving - I can't see why anyone would want to be an MP with its crap salary, minimal influence to do anything (unless you're in cabinet), inability to be an independent thinker as an MP has to adhere rigidly to what their party tells them, and you have to put up with tidal waves of appalling abuse from idiots online.

Maybe if the Conservatives hadn't purged themselves of dissenting voices ahead of the general election in 2019, they wouldn't have benches full of lobby fodder.

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:I don't really see what this has to do with Brexit but whatever gets you off Pr4wn.

This sleazy, corrupt government was elected on the back of strong Brexit support. You know that, I know that. Johnson purged his party of most of the vocal remainers and now what's left?

This is corruption in action.

The red wall voted based on strong Brexit support, it had little to no impact on lifelong Tory voters. You obviously go to the party conferences every year whilst I don't so who am I to argue with someone who knows so little about the actual voters.

You’ll notice Pr4wn never mentioned Tory voters, but Brexit voters. So mentioning the red wall voters isnt exactly the stinging point you think it is.

Brexit has been used as the single reason for so much corruption and sidestepping of standards thus far. Remember the illegal proroguing of parliament? Brexit was also used as an excuse to lie to the Queen.

Brexit has been used as a reason to lie to the British public since the referendum discussion began. And where has it landed us? With a government that consists of 250 MPs who voted to mark their own homework as far as decency and standards are concerned.

If some Brexit voters too proud to admit that you've been thoroughly had, that's their issue. But pretending that this issue has nothing to do with Brexit when the entire government is centred around Brexit shows the same stunning lack of perception of nuance that landed the UK in this situation in the first place.

I fear you’re right. The government shouldnt be able to hide behind the “we got brexit done” forever but theres a massive amount of people to proud to admit they maybe got this one wrong.

Also, buried in the news - after Paul Dacre (a delightful chap) was ruled out of selection for the new head of OFCOM, Johnson has ordered the rerun of the process, and also appointed a lobbyist to “advise” the selection committee.

The state trying to take over the media. This is the state this country is in now.

https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/how-could-labour-win-swap-dud-dead

Reasonably interesting blog from everyone’s favourite nightclub doorman turned fake news peddler, Dom Cummings.

Makes some valid points regarding Starmer and his inability to cut through and his list of priorities.

Samo wrote:I fear you’re right. The government shouldnt be able to hide behind the “we got brexit done” forever but theres a massive amount of people to proud to admit they maybe got this one wrong.

Also, buried in the news - after Paul Dacre (a delightful chap) was ruled out of selection for the new head of OFCOM, Johnson has ordered the rerun of the process, and also appointed a lobbyist to “advise” the selection committee.

The state trying to take over the media.  This is the state this country is in now.

Government was hiding behind the vaccination thing for a while. That's stopped now for some reason...

JDizzle wrote:https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/how-could-labour-win-swap-dud-dead

Reasonably interesting blog from everyone’s favourite nightclub doorman turned fake news peddler, Dom Cummings.

Makes some valid points regarding Starmer and his inability to cut through and his list of priorities.

Thanks for the link, it was an enjoyable read. It's mostly common sense stuff from Cummings, but too heavily simplified.

Labour should focus more on violent crime, Blair did this very successfully in the run-up to 1997, and the Tories reversed this in 2005 which (while not successful) did help in cutting Labour's majority.

Labour should dispense with Starmer, but not now, instead wait until after the GE. Starmer, as I've said before, isn't in the game to get Labour back into office in 2024. He's leading Labour to try to restore some respectability to the party after the horror years of Corbyn, then pass the baton over to a Labour MP that has a genuine chance of getting Labour into number ten in 2029. If Labour rid themselves of Starmer in the next six months it risks reigniting the toxicity in the party and how it is viewed by the general public.

Moving the party HQ out of London would be a minor cosmetic change. Stay out of minor issues and Brexit is very sensible. The best point Cummings makes, as he has done before, is pointing out the multi-dimensional nature of people's politics - people are not uniformly left or right, they have elements of both.

The headline of the piece was swap Starmer for a leader who is a 'Midlands Woman' - I wondered who that would be, Cummings finally alights on Lisa Nandy as the choice, who isn't quite Midlands. I think that Nandy has the potential to be a good leader, but political parties should never subscribe to the logic of picking a certain leader by their geographic origin. I remember in 2016 when UKIP elected a truly hopeless leader in Paul Nuttall - a lot of the thinking from the mainstream media (and many in UKIP) was that because Nuttall was from t'North that UKIP would hoover up Labour votes by the bucketload in t'North...it didn't quite work out that way! Leaders should only ever be chosen based on their skills, not frippery like that.

Cummings is right to say that the hardest problem in politics is always, without fail, your own side. But he underplays the fact that Labour have greater issues in this regard than the Tories. Some elements of Labour's support, activist base and even a few MPs are far-left (hence how Corbyn got elected) which goes down like sour milk with most of the electorate (including the ones that Labour need to get back into number ten). The Tories don't have a similar problem in this regard; the far-right despises the Tory party.

Cummings also, in this blog at least, ignores the plethora of other issues that Labour have in getting re-elected. It can't be as simple as get a new leader, bang on about the economy + crime and win. Labour are struggling with the SNP in the north and without a significant number of Scottish seats Labour are unlikely to get back into number ten. That's one of their biggest problems. They can either pivot hard in Scotland and take the fight to the SNP by saying they would support a second independence referendum in the event of a Labour government (similar to Cameron v UKIP in 2013) which could backfire heavily; or they move to a centrist platform (Blairite, if you like) and take the fight to the Tories in England.

The violent crime focus seems a no brainer. Starmer is a former DPP, he should be able to own that space much more confidently than Miliband or Corbyn but he continues to miss open goals on it.

Re. Disposing of Starmer, you are into risky territory if you try and start planning for two elections time. In recent years I am not sure if any political predictions made two years previously would have resembled anything like what actually happened. It is important to live in present, and BJ isn’t a popular PM. He is eminently beatable even if that does leave a Lab minority rather than the a majority for the points Duty makes about Scotland etc.

The biggest problem with replacing Starmer is ensuring the ‘anointed one’ wins the leadership election. Even with the rule changes Starmer made, it’s not nailed on a centrist option would be the only one on the ballot. And you could end up with something worse. Cummings definitely underestimates the factionality in Labour and just simply saying to sideline the left won’t work!

Johnson's own whips are briefing against him now.

Hands up who's been to Peppa Pig World.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Hands up who's been to Peppa Pig World.

Amazing bit of work by Johnson there. All the media can talk about is his “calamity” of a speech, meanwhile they quiet pass a bill through Parliament that effectively shafts people in the North when it comes to covering the cost of their care.

Truly outstanding bit of politics, using the media and voter apathy to his advantage.

Was it really to his advantage though? It wasn't an appearance at some village fete, he was addressing the CBI at a time of profound uncertainty for business, caused in part by his party's flagship policy, and evidently the speech was very poorly received (in contrast to the positive reception given to Starmer's speech, which could prove to be significant). And it's not as if the social care bill slipped through unnoticed either.

Numerous sources, within the party, the cabinet, and Number 10 itself, are briefing journalists to say that patience is wearing thin with Johnson's act, and I'm not sure he knows what to do about it other than to play up even more.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Was it really to his advantage though? It wasn't an appearance at some village fete, he was addressing the CBI at a time of profound uncertainty for business, caused in part by his party's flagship policy, and evidently the speech was very poorly received (in contrast to the positive reception given to Starmer's speech, which could prove to be significant). And it's not as if the social care bill slipped through unnoticed either.

Numerous sources, within the party, the cabinet, and Number 10 itself, are briefing journalists to say that patience is wearing thin with Johnson's act, and I'm not sure he knows what to do about it other than to play up even more.

Rumors about 1922 committee now. Johnson could well face a leadership challenge in the very near future.

If it goes ahead I assume it will involve the usual no hoper/stalking horse who Johnson will beat but with minimal advantage, which should lead to him resigning. But normal rules apparently don't apply to him.

The fight for succession, if it happens, will be fascinating.

Johnson's position not helped by the poor polling which has Labour leading in six of the last ten polls. I think that's the best Labour have consistently polled since Johnson became PM.

If there is a leadership challenge and succession, which I still think is a way off, expect an early GE (again) to take advantage of the 'new leader' bounce.

I'd guess a leadership challenge is quite a way off too, but the question is, where's Johnson's next big win coming from? That's a genuine question. All I can see is choppy waters ahead, on a number of fronts.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I'd guess a leadership challenge is quite a way off too, but the question is, where's Johnson's next big win coming from? That's a genuine question. All I can see is choppy waters ahead, on a number of fronts.

I also think that people are starting to see that there really isn't the intellectual substance they thought was present behind the bumbling buffoon persona. He's been living on the 'getting Brexit done' and initial successes of the Covid vaccination programme for a long time, and the afterglow of these has dimmed as it's become increasingly obvious that there was no planning to follow up, and that behind the scenes was chaos and (borderline?) corruption..

Labour lost two Northern seats to the Tories last night and the results of the North Yorkshire Commissioner election..

Con 61% (nc)
Lab 39% (nc)

Labour are making progress in all the wrong places.....The red wall is still a problem.

Interesting reshuffle from Starmer, seems another move to the centre ground. Cooper promoted to shadow home secretary which is an excellent and deserved move for her; Nandy is now shadow levelling-up secretary, which may appear a demotion from her previous position, but it's an area she's very passionate about. Streeting, a consistent Corbyn critic and relatively young MP, also gets a promotion up to shadow health. Miliband and Thornberry getting demoted (business and trade) is also very sensible, in my view.

Only bad news I can see is Lammy getting a promotion up to shadow foreign secretary - I'd be keeping that idiot well off the frontbenches as he'll give the Tories plenty of ammunition.

Interesting times for Starmer's leadership. The mini-swing towards Labour in the polls appears to have ended now, but the Tories are still on very shaky ground as 2022 approaches.

Duty281 wrote:Interesting reshuffle from Starmer, seems another move to the centre ground. Cooper promoted to shadow home secretary which is an excellent and deserved move for her; Nandy is now shadow levelling-up secretary, which may appear a demotion from her previous position, but it's an area she's very passionate about. Streeting, a consistent Corbyn critic and relatively young MP, also gets a promotion up to shadow health. Miliband and Thornberry getting demoted (business and trade) is also very sensible, in my view.

Only bad news I can see is Lammy getting a promotion up to shadow foreign secretary - I'd be keeping that idiot well off the frontbenches as he'll give the Tories plenty of ammunition.

Interesting times for Starmer's leadership. The mini-swing towards Labour in the polls appears to have ended now, but the Tories are still on very shaky ground as 2022 approaches.

Cooper has always been a smart politician, just a bit too centrist for the bulk of the Labour party. Having someone competent as the shadow of Priti Patel seems like an easy win though.

Levelling up is another area where Labour should be able to make some inroads, especially after the cancellation of the HS2 northern sections (although I'm not sure that improving the transport links to / from London is now as relevant as the pandemic has shown how much can actually be done remotely - better to level up tech infrastructure, which is more a rural / semi-rural v urban / suburban question).

dummy_half wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Interesting reshuffle from Starmer, seems another move to the centre ground. Cooper promoted to shadow home secretary which is an excellent and deserved move for her; Nandy is now shadow levelling-up secretary, which may appear a demotion from her previous position, but it's an area she's very passionate about. Streeting, a consistent Corbyn critic and relatively young MP, also gets a promotion up to shadow health. Miliband and Thornberry getting demoted (business and trade) is also very sensible, in my view.

Only bad news I can see is Lammy getting a promotion up to shadow foreign secretary - I'd be keeping that idiot well off the frontbenches as he'll give the Tories plenty of ammunition.

Interesting times for Starmer's leadership. The mini-swing towards Labour in the polls appears to have ended now, but the Tories are still on very shaky ground as 2022 approaches.

Cooper has always been a smart politician, just a bit too centrist for the bulk of the Labour party. Having someone competent as the shadow of Priti Patel seems like an easy win though.

Levelling up is another area where Labour should be able to make some inroads, especially after the cancellation of the HS2 northern sections (although I'm not sure that improving the transport links to / from London is now as relevant as the pandemic has shown how much can actually be done remotely - better to level up tech infrastructure, which is more a rural / semi-rural v urban / suburban question).

Considering how close they are to each other there are a number of Northern cities which don't have good links with each other at all. There is room to improve public transport between Leeds, Manchester, Bradford and Sheffield. Where we live there was once a train line direct to Macclesfield, which is all 12 miles away. Getting there these days by public transport is an epic journey taking well over 1hr.

Cooper in the shadow cabinet is a potential game changer, i've long held the opinion that she and Hilary Benn are the most competent pair in politics on either side of the house. She'll wipe the floor with Patel so expect a reshuffle from Johnson imminently.

Worth mentioning Yvette Cooper’s previous stint as Shadow Home Sec was 11-15, and was largely eventless and ended with the Tories winning an unlikely majority. I like her but it still all comes down to whether Keir has it or not - Cooper doesn’t move the needle.

Nandy as Minster for Levelling Up seems a demotion, but that is perfect for her.

lostinwales wrote:

Considering how close they are to each other there are a number of Northern cities which don't have good links with each other at all. There is room to improve public transport between Leeds, Manchester, Bradford and Sheffield. Where we live there was once a train line direct to Macclesfield, which is all 12 miles away. Getting there these days by public transport is an epic journey taking well over 1hr.

Leeds and Manchester are OK, although the difference between the fast and slow trains is an issue, and the difficulty of connecting through Manchester needs looking at (lack of easy links between Victoria and Piccadilly). Bradford is definitely a bit out on a limb as far as rail connections are concerned, and Sheffield obviously has difficult geography to connect to from the west, and probably suffers from not being on the main east coast main line.

My opinion though is that we are moving beyond the era of mass travelling, with more being done remotely. As such, it does raise the question of how much money should be being spent on transport infrastructure, especially inter-city connections.

By-election in Old Bexley today. The Tories comfortably held this seat in 2019 (winning by a 40% margin over Labour) and it's a classic safe blue seat, formerly held by Ted Heath.

But there is some Tory concern about voter apathy and the weight of various scandals pressing down on the government. Enough concern that the Tories have had to put in a significant get-out-the-vote operation.

Tories are around 1/12-1/14 to hold it; Labour around 6/1-8/1 to pinch it in classic by-election style. Defeat would be a monumental blow to Johnson's increasingly fragile leadership.

Likely result must be a Conservative hold but with a massively reduced margin.

Solid win for the Tories, but their winning margin was down to 20%. Only Labour and Reform kept their deposits.

Much bigger test for the Tories in a couple of weeks in North Shropshire where the Lib Dems are poised to run it close.

Bexley is a very strong Leave voting constituency - so no surprise to see Labour comfortably beaten and doesn’t bode well for their chances in regaining Red Wall seats yet. Interesting Reform still polled okay - may be a slight concern if they stand in all seats against the Tories in the next election.

Reform probably just picked up some disgruntled Tory voters who will return to the blue shade at the next GE. Worth noting also that Reform put up their party leader for this seat. Their overall prospects are bleak with FPTP and no Farage leading them - likely no more than 3% at the next GE as things stand.

I see far right rabble rouser Zemmour has overtaken LePen and moved in to second place..

Should by some miracle he wins it will be bad news for the EU.

Hating on Europe seems to be his hobby.

Le Pen will make it to the second round with Macron again as she's the only one who can defeat him.

And Le Pen's party are getting ever closer to the French Presidency, as they have been for the last few Presidential cycles. It's inevitable that Le Pen's party will win the Presidency at some point, if not this election then the next. Macron has presided over a fairly dismal term and another five years of him would seal it.

Current polling has Macron-Le Pen at around 55-45% for the crucial second-round run off, which is closer than Le Pen has ever been (she won about 34% of the second round vote in 2017; and never polled higher than 42% in the entire 2017 race v Macron).

PMQ’s today will be very interesting. Johnson is on the ropes like never before, time to see if Starmer has that knock out blow.

New COVID restrictions being announced today.

I really continue to wonder how this government keeps getting rope.

''Ant and Dec are ahead of the Prime Minister on this'' - top, top line from Starmer at PMQs.

Starmer did what he had to, he came across a lot more compassionate and statesman like than Johnson, who had no answer for anything other than “rules werent broken, no time to play politics”.

Blackford finished what Starmer started by calling not just for Johnsons resignation but imploring the Tory backbenches to have a long think about what falling on their sword for Johnson actually means.

Interesting that one of Johnsons own MPs called his planned Plan B restrictions (which a furious Lyndsay Hoyle raked him across the coals for not bringing it to the house first) as a distraction from the rest of the furor going on right now.

The sharks are circling, Johnsons days are numbered. Its just a matter of when.

Samo wrote:Starmer did what he had to, he came across a lot more compassionate and statesman like than Johnson, who had no answer for anything other than “rules werent broken, no time to play politics”.

Blackford finished what Starmer started by calling not just for Johnsons resignation but imploring the Tory backbenches to have a long think about what falling on their sword for Johnson actually means.

Interesting that one of Johnsons own MPs called his planned Plan B restrictions (which a furious Lyndsay Hoyle raked him across the coals for not bringing it to the house first) as a distraction from the rest of the furor going on right now.

The sharks are circling, Johnsons days are numbered. Its just a matter of when.

This has been said for a long time but it does feel like he's finally running out of allies.

I can't help thinking that throwing his staff under the bus is a big mistake. They'll have so much dirt on Johnson, and disloyalty works both ways.

That 'playing politics' line was terribly ill-judged in the circumstances. We've pretty much all toed the line over the last couple of years, regardless of our politics, because we all believe in the greater good. What happened here makes us all look like fools, just as Barnard Castle did. Emily Thornberry put it well on the radio when she said that we've suffered a 'collective trauma' during this pandemic.

Stratton (Wife of the Spectator and close friend of the Sunaks) has gone

She had to go after that video. Collateral damage.

I'd like Johnson to resign, but it's not as if someone better will take over. Probably end up with Truss or Raab.

Think Boris needs someone bigger to throw under the bus otherwise it'll be him going under

Press conference in an hour if anyone wants a laugh

Duty281 wrote:She had to go after that video. Collateral damage.

I'd like Johnson to resign, but it's not as if someone better will take over. Probably end up with Truss or Raab.

The sin of being caught talking about something which 'didn't happen'.