Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

The best thing about our system is that every single person in the country gets an equal vote under equal circumstances. Unless a National ID card scheme is introduced this will just alienate poorer voters. Just another way to rig the system.

GSC wrote:Think Boris needs someone bigger to throw under the bus otherwise it'll be him going under

He could throw Rees-Mogg under the bus after his jokes at an IEA party. Although with Douglas Ross coming out and saying that if he’s misled parliament he should resign then it could be him.

His Brexit backing sycophants on the front bench can only protect him for so long.

GSC wrote:Press conference in an hour if anyone wants a laugh

The speaker said that any new announcements (on Covid) would have to be in parliament first. I am betting isn't going to happen. I honestly don't know what tools he has to get back at the government but he's not going to be a happy bunny

Javids going to make a commons statement this evening apparently so this is totally not something put together at the last minute under pressure from a separate event

They can't even deny the person tasked with leading the internal investigation was at the party. Be a pretty easy job for him

Anyone heard from the usual bootlicking types on here? They’ve gone rather quiet

LAB: 40% (+1); CON: 34% (-2)

More polls like this will further undermine Johnson's leadership.

De Pfeffel disappearing would be a pretty good Christmas present to be fair.

king_carlos wrote:De Pfeffel disappearing would be a pretty good Christmas present to be fair.

The problem is, unless this were to bring down the Conservative government, who are we going to end up with that is better? Very few of the Brexit-supporting front bench appear competent (Sunak and Gove perhaps), and none of them come across as potential PMs (then again, neither does the bumbling blonde buffoon). Seriously, when you watch a Covid press conference, the difference in competence between the PM and the scientists is shocking.

Chris Witty for PM - you heard it here first...

Its an interesting question as to who comes next and I have seen a lot of people talking about Truss (which is hilarious really). Unless they find someone from outside the cabinet I think whoever they choose will hasten the end of this version of the Tories and their time in government. There are further sh!tstorms to come and there is nobody at the top table with Johnson's resilience.

Lib Dems now the bookies favourites to win the North Shropshire by election. Losing an incredibly safe Tory seat certainly wont help Johnson any further.

Labour also ahead by nine points in overall polls. Surely it won't be much longer until Johnson has that proverbial concrete block tied to him. The bloke's a complete liability.

Johnson to address the nation at 8pm tonight. He's either going to announce his resignation, another lockdown or reveal the winner of last years Christmas quiz.

Maybe we're going to have a nationwide Xmas quiz to prove it can be done virtually

GSC wrote:Maybe we're going to have a nationwide Xmas quiz to prove it can be done virtually

Q1. Who is the 2021 F1 World Champion?

The drive to survive producers

JuliusHMarx wrote:

GSC wrote:Maybe we're going to have a nationwide Xmas quiz to prove it can be done virtually

Q1. Who is the 2021 F1 World Champion?

Answer to be provided by the Court for Arbitration for Sport some time before 2025*

* I don't think CAS would actually change the World Champion, but any judgement will likely go against the FIA for their rather ad hoc approach to application of their agreed rules. Curiously bringing us back round to the topic of the Conservative government and Covid restrictions...

Let's contain the lawyers to one section

Just the 98 Tories rebelling against Boris. Start the runners for next year's leader contest

Think there would have been a similarly-sized rebellion against this nonsense even if Johnson was still at his peak levels of popularity.

But a leadership contest does look likely at some point next year if the Tories can't reverse their falling poll numbers. Likely they will steady over the next week (unless there's further issues/scandal).

A by-election defeat on Thursday will rock Johnson with another haymaker. A victory will give him a little bit of stability. Bookmakers currently have it too close to call (5/6 for both Lib Dems and Tories on Bet365).

I still fancy the Tories in NS. Voting conservative is ingrained in people in this neck of the woods. Paterson did have a very loyal personal following which might not turn out for the Tories, but would fancy them to still have enough.

Lib Dems are throwing everything at it though - and for all the talk of a alliance, Labour are standing but aren’t throwing anything at the campaigning beyond the bare minimum.

Never underestimate the pull of a blue rosette on rural wombles

https://twitter.com/edcmpbl/status/1469354012914954245?s=21

JDizzle wrote:I still fancy the Tories in NS. Voting conservative is ingrained in people in this neck of the woods. Paterson did have a very loyal personal following which might not turn out for the Tories, but would fancy them to still have enough.

Lib Dems are throwing everything at it though - and for all the talk of a alliance, Labour are standing but aren’t throwing anything at the campaigning beyond the bare minimum.

Yes, I'd be inclined to agree even without any real data. The Tories will be winning on the postal vote count, it then comes down to whether or not the LDs can get out enough voters on the day to overhaul that advantage. With the latest Covid news, and the dark winter weather, that will be a tough task. However there has been a national decline, in recent years, of the (broadly termed) middle-class voting for the Tories so that could still be a pivotal factor.

I'd probably favour the Tories 55-45.

Like a lot of by-elections, the governing party won't be harmed in the long-term by this. Even if they lose this seat will go back to blue at the next GE.

KS: “without Labour votes his health measures would not have went through yesterday”

BJ: “Thats not true”

KS: actually starts laughing at the dispatch box.

Starmer must be loving this, he’s got Johnson on toast everyweek, and all Johnson can come back with is “vaccines vaccines vaccines”.

Its the new “Brexit Brexit Brexit” but people arent falling for it anymore.

Lib Dems take North Shropshire in amazing fashion, winning nearly 18k votes with Tories in second with 12k. A stunning defeat which will put more pressure on Johnson.

Cant see him lasting long into the new year.

Started with a 23k Tory majority, now we're here

Lib Dems: 17957
Con: 12032
Labour: 3686
Reform: 1427
Green: 1738

Maj: 5925

Makes Boris' exit in the new year pretty inevitable now if he's managing to lose seats as safe as this one.

Rural wombles, I salute you

Dowden is right to say that governments lose mid term by-elections. However this was by a more than decent margin in the bluest of seats (I think I saw something along the lines of it voting Tory for 200 years straight).

This must put huge pressure on Johnson. I can't help feeling that a leadership challenge is inevitable

That's the most damaging thing about this. Seats don't come much bluer (more blue?). Turns out that this Christmas party stuff isn't 'partisan trivia' after all.

Also, how perfect that it's arguably Johnson's fault that this by-election was called in the first place. He's literally costing the party money and seats, and they don't have to accept it.

It's also potentially telling that this was a very 'Leave' area, and here they are voting Lib Dem in their thousands. Suddenly Johnson seems not to have one of his most reliable levers available to pull (no pun intended). What else does Mr Brexit have to offer?

Tough result for the Tories and a somewhat damaging one, but certainly not a 'shock' as the BBC are claiming it is. Seems a lot of Labour voters went to the LDs (Labour down 12%) and a few Tories went to the LDs, further highlighting the growing problem that it is for the Tories in middle-class areas.

As polls have indicated for some time, many 2019 Tory voters are reluctant and are there to be won, though haven't been claimed yet. For now they're staying at home.

Losing to the protest party is different than losing to the opposition party - the latter is far more hurtful. This is more just a bloody nose and the seat will go back to blue at the next GE.

Still some time left for Johnson, I believe, if he wants to stay. I doubt he'll lead the Tories into the next GE, but he may be around for another year or two.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It's also potentially telling that this was a very 'Leave' area, and here they are voting Lib Dem in their thousands. Suddenly Johnson seems not to have one of his most reliable levers available to pull (no pun intended). What else does Mr Brexit have to offer?

Old issue now, almost irrelevant to voters.

Brexit sits in the background but it doesn't go away, and over time the issues it has caused will become increasingly more significant. Only so much can be blamed on Covid.

Crazy result. Fancied the Tories narrowly, but Lib Dems winning by that margin wasn’t on anyone’s radar. Mentioned before how Labour did seem to have been mailing in their campaign a bit, and it did feel like their was an unofficial effort to help the Libs win.

It’s only a matter of time for Johnson. The Tories disorganisation helps him cling on for a bit, they couldn’t even force Theresa out. But he’s always been unpopular - just lucky Corbyn was even more so - and he’s been the same bloke for 30 years. He isn’t going to change now and certainly fill the Tories with purpose and direction.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It's also potentially telling that this was a very 'Leave' area, and here they are voting Lib Dem in their thousands. Suddenly Johnson seems not to have one of his most reliable levers available to pull (no pun intended). What else does Mr Brexit have to offer?

Old issue now, almost irrelevant to voters.

Hardly. If you voted leave based on what these people were selling and you realise you were sold a donkey, you’ll remember that come election time.

JDizzle wrote:Crazy result. Fancied the Tories narrowly, but Lib Dems winning by that margin wasn’t on anyone’s radar. Mentioned before how Labour did seem to have been mailing in their campaign a bit, and it did feel like their was an unofficial effort to help the Libs win.

It’s only a matter of time for Johnson. The Tories disorganisation helps him cling on for a bit, they couldn’t even force Theresa out. But he’s always been unpopular - just lucky Corbyn was even more so - and he’s been the same bloke for 30 years. He isn’t going to change now and certainly fill the Tories with purpose and direction.

I can't agree with that. I'm not a supporter of Johnson, never have been, but he has in the past been tremendously popular. He won the London Mayoral election twice and played a significant role in the Leave campaign through his popularity and sheer force of personality. He was also a very popular figure with backbench Tory MPs and in 'red wall' constituencies.

But, as a great man once said: all political lives end in failure. We're approaching the end now.

I’m more referring to his time as PM re unpopularity. Consistently churning out big negative scores on his approval ratings in the lead up to 2019 GE. Just Corbyn’s were worse.

Sir Roger Gale becomes to first MP to publicly confirm they have submitted a letter of no confidence to the 1922 committee. I expect a few more to follow suit.

Edit: its worth mentioning that this letter was submitted following Cummings eye test, but it was never made public until now.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It's also potentially telling that this was a very 'Leave' area, and here they are voting Lib Dem in their thousands. Suddenly Johnson seems not to have one of his most reliable levers available to pull (no pun intended). What else does Mr Brexit have to offer?

Old issue now, almost irrelevant to voters.

Not true in this constituency so full of farmers and farm workers, apparently.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It's also potentially telling that this was a very 'Leave' area, and here they are voting Lib Dem in their thousands. Suddenly Johnson seems not to have one of his most reliable levers available to pull (no pun intended). What else does Mr Brexit have to offer?

Old issue now, almost irrelevant to voters.

I think you're confirming my point in a way, Duty. If the Brexit fire is dying out, what else can Johnson use to motivate and keep hold of the new voters the party won in 2019? How many tricks does this pony have?

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It's also potentially telling that this was a very 'Leave' area, and here they are voting Lib Dem in their thousands. Suddenly Johnson seems not to have one of his most reliable levers available to pull (no pun intended). What else does Mr Brexit have to offer?

Old issue now, almost irrelevant to voters.

I think you're confirming my point in a way, Duty. If the Brexit fire is dying out, what else can Johnson use to motivate and keep hold of the new voters the party won in 2019? How many tricks does this pony have?

Usual stuff I imagine. Fear of Labour. Fear of a Labour/SNP coalition. Probably point to some economic/employment figures. Keep calling Starmer 'Captain Hindsight'.

But I doubt Johnson will lead his party into the next GE. Let some new leader do all that.

Duty281 wrote:Tough result for the Tories and a somewhat damaging one, but certainly not a 'shock' as the BBC are claiming it is. Seems a lot of Labour voters went to the LDs (Labour down 12%) and a few Tories went to the LDs, further highlighting the growing problem that it is for the Tories in middle-class areas.

As polls have indicated for some time, many 2019 Tory voters are reluctant and are there to be won, though haven't been claimed yet. For now they're staying at home.

Losing to the protest party is different than losing to the opposition party - the latter is far more hurtful. This is more just a bloody nose and the seat will go back to blue at the next GE.

Still some time left for Johnson, I believe, if he wants to stay. I doubt he'll lead the Tories into the next GE, but he may be around for another year or two.

The Lib Dems just nicking it would have been a surprise but not a shock, but the margin of victory certainly was shocking. OK, I know in the longer term, the loss of a single safe seat in a by-election is not necessarily catastrophic for the Government (at least one with a healthy majority), but this does seem to indicate that Boris's 'charm' (for want of a better term) no longer has the same appeal as it once did.

Johnson has always been a 'big picture' kind of politician, relying on others to do the wonky stuff (the antithesis of Gordon Brown), but it seems that he just doesn't have a vision to sell at the moment (we've all heard the 'get your booster' call 1000 times) and that he doesn't have control of even his own team or advisors good enough to help him. Oh, and it would help if he had a less 'Trumpian' attitude to the truth (i.e that by saying something it makes it true - something Trump was very good at believing and at selling to enough of the electorate: can tell he was basically a glorified estate agent).

dummy_half wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Tough result for the Tories and a somewhat damaging one, but certainly not a 'shock' as the BBC are claiming it is. Seems a lot of Labour voters went to the LDs (Labour down 12%) and a few Tories went to the LDs, further highlighting the growing problem that it is for the Tories in middle-class areas.

As polls have indicated for some time, many 2019 Tory voters are reluctant and are there to be won, though haven't been claimed yet. For now they're staying at home.

Losing to the protest party is different than losing to the opposition party - the latter is far more hurtful. This is more just a bloody nose and the seat will go back to blue at the next GE.

Still some time left for Johnson, I believe, if he wants to stay. I doubt he'll lead the Tories into the next GE, but he may be around for another year or two.

The Lib Dems just nicking it would have been a surprise but not a shock, but the margin of victory certainly was shocking.  OK, I know in the longer term, the loss of a single safe seat in a by-election is not necessarily catastrophic for the Government (at least one with a healthy majority), but this does seem to indicate that Boris's 'charm' (for want of a better term) no longer has the same appeal as it once did.

Johnson has always been a 'big picture' kind of politician, relying on others to do the wonky stuff (the antithesis of Gordon Brown), but it seems that he just doesn't have a vision to sell at the moment (we've all heard the 'get your booster' call 1000 times) and that he doesn't have control of even his own team or advisors good enough to help him. Oh, and it would help if he had a less 'Trumpian' attitude to the truth (i.e that by saying something it makes it true - something Trump was very good at believing and at selling to enough of the electorate: can tell he was basically a glorified estate agent).

The Tories  are weighed down by scandal and have been given a kick by the protest party, I'm not really reading much more into it than that. The margin was a slight surprise, but it was more indicative of how many Tories decided to stay at home rather than the number of LDs that wanted to vote. If it had been a Labour win it would have been more noteworthy.

I agree that Johnson lacks vision and he needs to establish one soon if he is going to lead his party into the next GE. Failing that his successor needs to. The one advantage the Tories have here is that Labour are also struggling to define a vision.

GSC wrote:They can't even deny the person tasked with leading the internal investigation was at the party. Be a pretty easy job for him

And now he's stepped down from it

It's pretty astonishing they thought none of this was going to come out.

The fat lady may not be singing yet but she's warming up.

Frost gone, now the hilarious whatsapp message release, and rumors of more stories about Johnson due to break

He's one more scandal away from toppling. Ideally for the Tories he'd resign around the summer, then they can install a new leader under a pellucid sky and promise a new dawn etc.

Out of interest who do we reckon will be the next Tory leader and PM? Current odds are - Sunak 9/4; Truss 9/2; Gove 6/1; Hunt 9/1; Javid 16/1; Tugendhat 20/1; Patel 22/1; Raab 25/1.

I reckon, as things stand, Truss is the most likely. She's been manoeuvring herself to look more Prime Ministerial in recent weeks.

It will be Sunak, he's still very popular with the membership.

Duty281 wrote:He's one more scandal away from toppling. Ideally for the Tories he'd resign around the summer, then they can install a new leader under a pellucid sky and promise a new dawn etc.

Out of interest who do we reckon will be the next Tory leader and PM? Current odds are - Sunak 9/4; Truss 9/2; Gove 6/1; Hunt 9/1; Javid 16/1; Tugendhat 20/1; Patel 22/1; Raab 25/1.

I reckon, as things stand, Truss is the most likely. She's been manoeuvring herself to look more Prime Ministerial in recent weeks.

Which is bleakly hilarious. What a state we're in. A governing party that has purged itself of talent.

Duty281 wrote:Tugendhat 20/1; Patel 22/1; Raab 25/1.

Tugendhat is an interesting one. Quite a meteoric rise and making quite an impression.

Patel and Raab being that soon in the betting shows what a sparse choice of decent candidates there are

Not one of them would have responsibility for anything more important than the stationary cupboard in the private sector. Just shows what good quality bootlicking and the right family connections can do