Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Duty281 wrote:Sunak speaks for a grand total of 84 seconds and then scuttles away to get his orders.

Crackpot.

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Funny I got pulled into a stupid discussion elsewhere with someone bemoaning the number of muslims in London. I pointed out that it's like going into Golders Green and using that as a basis of claiming that London is being taken over by Jews. Idiot's counter was that at least the Jews are not setting off bombs in London. However post war Jewish terrorists were active in the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_(militant_group)

Haha, 1947? We have virtually zero problems with the Jewish population in our country. The same cannot be said for our (rapidly expanding) Muslim population, unfortunately.  

Missing the point.

For the hard of understanding new immigrants come into London all the time. It's been going on for centuries. Some of them are bad people (just like the ones we have at home already). The vast majority are just people, and over time they become Londoners as well as adding just a little bit of their own flavour to the mix. In 50 years time there might still be discussions like this about muslims but they will be the new immigrants, again.

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:...and, while there has been an increase in Islamophobia, it is not equal to the rise of anti-Semitism, which you also claimed.

Buzzzz! Wrong. I made no comment on equivalence; merely that there has been rises in both. Be careful quoting percentage changes in any sort of effort to over-egg that pudding.

Duty281 wrote:Israel has also not committed genocide. They could do so, if they wish, but choose not to do so.

Israel's actions and publicly available comments by its politicians satisfy the definitions of genocidal. You don't have to agree, but it's true nonetheless I'm afraid.

It isn't true. It's just ludicrous hyperbole. Genocide is the physical destruction of a national, ethnic, racial or religious group. Israel have not done this.

If they wanted to do this, like how Hamas wants to commit genocide against the Jews, then they have the capacity to eradicate every life from Palestine. But they don't. Because they're not genocidal.

Buzzz! Wrong again, I'm afraid. It's not simply the physical destruction of the types of group you mention. I'll help you out:

https://ccrjustice.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/10/Background%20on%20the%20term%20genocide%20in%20Israel%20Palestine%20Context.pdf
https://worldwithoutgenocide.org/genocides-and-conflicts/israel-palestine-conflict-history-causes-and-international-law
https://time.com/6334409/is-whats-happening-gaza-genocide-experts/
https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/5914/Scholars%E2%80%99-consensus:-Genocide-in-Gaza-marks-turning-point,-Israel-must-be-held-accountable
https://jewishcurrents.org/a-textbook-case-of-genocide

I'll bow to their greater knowledge and experience, whilst accepting it's a debatable issue.

lostinwales wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Funny I got pulled into a stupid discussion elsewhere with someone bemoaning the number of muslims in London. I pointed out that it's like going into Golders Green and using that as a basis of claiming that London is being taken over by Jews. Idiot's counter was that at least the Jews are not setting off bombs in London. However post war Jewish terrorists were active in the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_(militant_group)

Haha, 1947? We have virtually zero problems with the Jewish population in our country. The same cannot be said for our (rapidly expanding) Muslim population, unfortunately.  

Missing the point.

For the hard of understanding new immigrants come into London all the time. It's been going on for centuries. Some of them are bad people (just like the ones we have at home already). The vast majority are just people, and over time they become Londoners as well as adding just a little bit of their own flavour to the mix. In 50 years time there might still be discussions like this about muslims but they will be the new immigrants, again.

It has been going on for centuries. But the last 13 years have seen record amounts of migration, putting a strain on hopes of cultural integration. What do you mean by 'become Londoners'? I presume you mean just exist in a geographical context as a resident of London, because London has no singular cultural identity.

I hope there won't be discussions like this in 50 years about Muslims. Hopefully, by then, our Islamic population will have joined us in our social liberalness. If not, dark times await.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:...and, while there has been an increase in Islamophobia, it is not equal to the rise of anti-Semitism, which you also claimed.

Buzzzz! Wrong. I made no comment on equivalence; merely that there has been rises in both. Be careful quoting percentage changes in any sort of effort to over-egg that pudding.

Duty281 wrote:Israel has also not committed genocide. They could do so, if they wish, but choose not to do so.

Israel's actions and publicly available comments by its politicians satisfy the definitions of genocidal. You don't have to agree, but it's true nonetheless I'm afraid.

It isn't true. It's just ludicrous hyperbole. Genocide is the physical destruction of a national, ethnic, racial or religious group. Israel have not done this.

If they wanted to do this, like how Hamas wants to commit genocide against the Jews, then they have the capacity to eradicate every life from Palestine. But they don't. Because they're not genocidal.

Buzzz! Wrong again, I'm afraid. It's not simply the physical destruction of the types of group you mention. I'll help you out:

https://ccrjustice.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/10/Background%20on%20the%20term%20genocide%20in%20Israel%20Palestine%20Context.pdf
https://worldwithoutgenocide.org/genocides-and-conflicts/israel-palestine-conflict-history-causes-and-international-law
https://time.com/6334409/is-whats-happening-gaza-genocide-experts/
https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/5914/Scholars%E2%80%99-consensus:-Genocide-in-Gaza-marks-turning-point,-Israel-must-be-held-accountable
https://jewishcurrents.org/a-textbook-case-of-genocide

I'll bow to their greater knowledge and experience, whilst accepting it's a debatable issue.

Indeed, you are wrong again, it's good to keep a count of this. Israel are not genocidal, but they are threatened by genocidal groups. You're complaining at someone throwing a harder punch, when they've been punched first.

Navy, you have to remember that history always proves Duty right.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Navy, you have to remember that history always proves Duty right.

Must not be forgotten.

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Funny I got pulled into a stupid discussion elsewhere with someone bemoaning the number of muslims in London. I pointed out that it's like going into Golders Green and using that as a basis of claiming that London is being taken over by Jews. Idiot's counter was that at least the Jews are not setting off bombs in London. However post war Jewish terrorists were active in the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_(militant_group)

Haha, 1947? We have virtually zero problems with the Jewish population in our country. The same cannot be said for our (rapidly expanding) Muslim population, unfortunately.  

Missing the point.

For the hard of understanding new immigrants come into London all the time. It's been going on for centuries. Some of them are bad people (just like the ones we have at home already). The vast majority are just people, and over time they become Londoners as well as adding just a little bit of their own flavour to the mix. In 50 years time there might still be discussions like this about muslims but they will be the new immigrants, again.

It has been going on for centuries. But the last 13 years have seen record amounts of migration, putting a strain on hopes of cultural integration. What do you mean by 'become Londoners'? I presume you mean just exist in a geographical context as a resident of London, because London has no singular cultural identity.

I hope there won't be discussions like this in 50 years about Muslims. Hopefully, by then, our Islamic population will have joined us in our social liberalness. If not, dark times await.

The concern is always on places like London changing because of your generic Muslims* or whoever moving in. London tends to change the immigrants more than the over way around. Who knows. One day London might even have a Muslim mayor.

* Which ones? Pakistani? Syrian? Afghan? Somali? I guess simple labels work best. At least 'Muslim immigrant' sounds better that 'Forin'.

lostinwales wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Funny I got pulled into a stupid discussion elsewhere with someone bemoaning the number of muslims in London. I pointed out that it's like going into Golders Green and using that as a basis of claiming that London is being taken over by Jews. Idiot's counter was that at least the Jews are not setting off bombs in London. However post war Jewish terrorists were active in the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_(militant_group)

Haha, 1947? We have virtually zero problems with the Jewish population in our country. The same cannot be said for our (rapidly expanding) Muslim population, unfortunately.  

Missing the point.

For the hard of understanding new immigrants come into London all the time. It's been going on for centuries. Some of them are bad people (just like the ones we have at home already). The vast majority are just people, and over time they become Londoners as well as adding just a little bit of their own flavour to the mix. In 50 years time there might still be discussions like this about muslims but they will be the new immigrants, again.

It has been going on for centuries. But the last 13 years have seen record amounts of migration, putting a strain on hopes of cultural integration. What do you mean by 'become Londoners'? I presume you mean just exist in a geographical context as a resident of London, because London has no singular cultural identity.

I hope there won't be discussions like this in 50 years about Muslims. Hopefully, by then, our Islamic population will have joined us in our social liberalness. If not, dark times await.

The concern is always on places like London changing because of your generic Muslims* or whoever moving in. London tends to change the immigrants more than the over way around. Who knows. One day London might even have a Muslim mayor.

* Which ones? Pakistani? Syrian? Afghan? Somali? I guess simple labels work best. At least 'Muslim immigrant' sounds better that 'Forin'.

I think we're largely talking at cross purposes. Many of the Islamic population are not immigrants, they are British, and I was not referring specifically to immigrants.

I don't think London tends to change the immigrants more than the other way around, either. The last few decades have borne that out to be false. Might be the case if immigration stayed at the relatively low levels it was prior to 1997, but not anymore.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Navy, you have to remember that history always proves Duty right.

I can only try. There's no helping some...

Hi Duty. Just helping you to broaden your horizons ...

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/a-new-mccarthyism-is-being-enforced-around-the-israel-hamas-conflict-2781293

navyblueshorts wrote:Hi Duty. Just helping you to broaden your horizons ...

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/a-new-mccarthyism-is-being-enforced-around-the-israel-hamas-conflict-2781293

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Hi Duty. Just helping you to broaden your horizons ...

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/a-new-mccarthyism-is-being-enforced-around-the-israel-hamas-conflict-2781293

I'm not perturbed. I'll keep trying. I see it as my mission .

Over three thousands years of antisemitism.   Religious antisemitism in various forms.  Scientific antisemitism in various forms.   Atheist and Secular antisemitism in various forms.    From one generation to another from one geolocation to another.    So widespread and ingrained that people that are antisemitic are often blind to it.  Vocal self-righteous blowhards.   Like someone rooted to the north pole unable to comprehend the idea of north.    Criticism is fair but it often shifts towards the most outrageous antisemitism.

Jemima Goldsmith calls for understanding on both sides
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/imran-khan-jemima-goldsmith-antisemitism-islamophobia-b2456800.html

"“You can be horrified by Hamas’ massacre of Israelis AND condemn Israel’s ongoing killing of thousands of innocent Palestinians."

“This conflict has rendered each side deaf and impervious to the other’s suffering and fear... It’s not a competition. And if you only see one or the other, you are part of the problem."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/05/brexit-disaster-rejoining-channel-europe-economy

Spoiler:

Absolutely.

It's interesting to note the decline among young people about the importance of the issue as well. "In 2019, 18- to 24-year-olds rated Britain leaving the EU the most top issue facing the UK, a tracking poll by YouGov showed. But as Brexit loomed on 31 January 2020, its salience started dropping, from about 60% of people rating it the most important issue to only 18% today."

As the EU grows steadily more irrelevant, so the issue becomes steadily more irrelevant in our politics.

It was a fairly irrelevant issue pre 2015 election too to be fair.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/economy-immigration-and-healthcare-are-britons-top-three-issues-deciding-general-election-vote

Internal Tory party politics brought it to the forefront. It will be interesting to see if Labour, as the polls suggest, win a decent majority (TBC) whether closer alignment becomes an internal battle for them and how that is dealt with.

It wasn't irrelevant pre-2015. The Lisbon Treaty and the extension of free movement to some eastward states in 2004, then Bulgaria/Romania in 2014 (after controls were lifted) were key political issues, which brought it to the front, and the rise of UKIP (second in the European Elections in 2009; winning them in 2014; becoming the third largest party around 2012/2013) reflected that.

The EU might not pop up too highly on a list of top issues for a GE where the two main parties both supported EU membership, but that doesn't mean it was fairly irrelevant. It would have probably been the main issue had one of the two main parties advocated withdrawal and the other supported remaining.

And that is just one poll. Here's another which puts it at the third highest issue, level with the economy - https://www.statista.com/statistics/377483/most-important-election-2015-issues-great-britiain-uk/

Here's another poll from 2013 that shows 62% want an EU Referendum, with just 20% against - https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf

It was definitely an issue before 2015, although not, perhaps, the main issue.

Quite unsettling to watch an unelected PM stand behind a podium and effectively say that black is white and if the courts disagree we’ll pass legislation that writes black is white into law.

Theres that F word creeping in again. The election cant come quick enough.

Samo wrote:Quite unsettling to watch an unelected PM stand behind a podium and effectively say that black is white and if the courts disagree we’ll pass legislation that writes black is white into law.

Theres that F word creeping in again. The election cant come quick enough.

Agree their attempts to change the rules are dodgy and utterly in-keeping with this administration. We elect the party, though, not the leader of that party. Sunak has been duly elected as the MP for whatever unfortunate part of the UK.

Regarding immigration and the changing demographic of UK, or at least London, I found this information.  Granted this is a Wikipedia link, so a little pinch of salt, but in general London has not been the centre of immigration for nearly as long as we like to think.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_London

According to this (assuming accuracy), in 1961, London was 97% White (not sure if this includes people of Jewish background), and in 2021, 37% White.  London was always a mercantile city with the mix of temporary residents from  all over, but this shows the radical turnover of the demographics of London residents, and that this is a relatively new phenomenon.  

Taken from someone who has been in conflict situations in the middle-east as well as other places where all forms of racism are the norm, I can easily respect people (in this case Israelis) who defend their own people and have no room for terrorists who r*** and kill mothers, the elderly, and babies.  And then hide behind their own people.  None.      

But to be fair, is anyone really naive enough to believe the Hamas supporters/financiers/armourers want peace to break out?  If that happens, they lose power and influence, which after all if what they really want.  In an odd way, Hamas and the Palestinian Arabs are stooges for the real criminals here, the people who are actually supposed to have their back.  This is why the Mid-east has never been fixed.

doctor_grey wrote:Regarding immigration and the changing demographic of UK, or at least London, I found this information.  Granted this is a Wikipedia link, so a little pinch of salt, but in general London has not been the centre of immigration for nearly as long as we like to think.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_London

According to this (assuming accuracy), in 1961, London was 97% White (not sure if this includes people of Jewish background), and in 2021, 37% White.  London was always a mercantile city with the mix of temporary residents from  all over, but this shows the radical turnover of the demographics of London residents, and that this is a relatively new phenomenon.  

Just on this point, very true.

It's just a myth propagated by supporters of mass immigration. 'Oh we've always been multicultural for hundreds of years, we've always had lots of immigration, what's changed? etc.'

England and Wales was over 90% White British in the early 1980s, which is now about 73%. London, as you note, was 97% white in 1961, now it has changed beyond all recognition in such a short space of time with the native people being a minority in their own capital. And the foreign-born population of England and Wales has risen from 1.5% (of that 1.5%, 90% were Irish) in 1901 to nearly 17% (of which 3% are Irish) in 2021.

England has been culturally and ethnically homogenous for much of its history (similar to modern day Japan), with just small pockets of minority groups (particularly Jews in the old East End), but that has changed drastically and forever in the last quarter of a century, with net migration going over 100,000 for the first time in 1998 (and staying that way every year bar 2020), and then for much of the last decade net migration has exceeded a quarter of a million, with it now going over half a million.

But you still see people who believe cultural integration can happen despite those high numbers.

What is British culture? And why do people think its so important immigrants adopt it?

doctor_grey wrote:...Taken from someone who has been in conflict situations in the middle-east as well as other places where all forms of racism are the norm, I can easily respect people (in this case Israelis) who defend their own people and have no room for terrorists who r*** and kill mothers, the elderly, and babies.  And then hide behind their own people.  None.    

One could more or less as easily substitute Israel for Hamas here i.e. settlers/the Irgun/the Lehi/the IDF who r**e, kill mothers, babies and the elderly (and who have done so for decades) and then hide behind the US at the UN?

doctor_grey wrote:But to be fair, is anyone really naive enough to believe the Hamas supporters/financiers/armourers want peace to break out?  If that happens, they lose power and influence, which after all if what they really want.  In an odd way, Hamas and the Palestinian Arabs are stooges for the real criminals here, the people who are actually supposed to have their back.  This is why the Mid-east has never been fixed.

This is the same excuse trotted out time and time again as justification for never engaging with Hamas et al over a solution for the Palestinians. Hamas are atrocious, but to suggest they exist in a vacuum, and that Israel isn't complicit, is absurd. I'd argue that Hamas et al are a product of Israel's behaviour in that region for the last ~80 years; Hamas certainly came after Israel made it standard practice to ethnically cleanse and murder throughout that region. I like how you conveniently ignore the role of the US and the arms sellers in this region, while at the same time, apparently heap all the blame on those Arabic nations in the area. No wonder it's never been fixed. To be clear, I'm not absolving Hamas, Jordan, or any of the other petty power players in that region from their own guilt in this, but to simply do nothing/allow Israel a free hand is not the answer.

What I want is to stop seeing pictures of dead kids in classrooms......Being slaughtered under the fake pretext of Israel going after Hamas...

It's ethnic cleansing and its war crimes....

Don't want Israeli families killed in Hamas atrocities......Don't want the blatant genocide that is happening right now...

Shameful...

I don't like to comment too much about the Israel/Palestine thing because it is highly complex.

The current situation is a direct product of Israeli politics though, from intelligence failures over October 7th due to too many people quitting the relevant services, to a shoot first and ask questions later policy that in one case I read about ended with the death of an Israeli civilian who had taken out a Palestinian attacker and who was then shot by responding troops despite doing everything possible to show he wasn't a threat.

No question that Hamas are bad guys, but as we know from home every populist government likes to have bad guys around to blame stuff on.

Unquestionably both sides are to blame for what's happening. Hamas triggered it on Oct 7th but this has been ongoing for a very long time and Israel are obviously determined to wipe out Hamas at any and all cost.

Does anyone seriously believe even if Hamas are eliminated then there will be peace between Israel and Palestine? Not a hope.

https://theintercept.com/2023/12/11/israel-hamas-war-civilians-biden/

Rishi's Rwanda bill passes at the second reading stage by 313-269. Despite fears, there was no mass Tory rebellion against it.

If Sunak had lost this vote then his authority may have been completely torpedoed.

Some difference emerging in the latest polling. Labour's lead as low as 11% with some, as high as 23% with others. The Tories, overall, are polling as low as 22%.

Reform are as high as 11%, in some polls bigger than the Lib Dems, and that's while being led by a complete nobody in Tice. A Farage return could squeeze the Tories even further.

That vote reminds me of this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill

There's talk Farage could even return to Conservatives which I think is extremely unlikely but then again politics is a funny world. None of us ever thought an idiot like Trump would ever get elected President.

mountain man wrote:There's talk Farage could even return to Conservatives which I think is extremely unlikely but then again politics is a funny world. None of us ever thought an idiot like Trump would ever get elected President.

It's not so much Farage returning to the Conservatives as the Conservatives moving to his position

mountain man wrote:There's talk Farage could even return to Conservatives which I think is extremely unlikely but then again politics is a funny world. None of us ever thought an idiot like Trump would ever get elected President.

It is extremely unlikely. Farage and the Tories are currently far apart politically, plus most Tory MPs despise him, so it's very unlikely. Farage is better off aiming for his (also unlikely) goal of emulating Canada and getting Reform to replace the Tories.

As I said, it's extremely unlikely but several media outlets have said it's a possibility. I think though he'll do absolutely ANYTHING to achieve his goal of being an elected MP.

I really don't think he's that interested in becoming a MP. It wouldn't afford him any extra influence than he currently has.

How is it that a heavily armed member of the IDF (presumably supported by other parts of a patrol) can "feel threatened" by three partially clothed men (showing no visible arms) waving a stick carrying a white flag of surrender, and then apparently murder them?

Accepting that combat, adrenaline, fear etc have significant effects on behaviour, is it me, or is this pretty unbelievable?

The IDF stated that this incident was clearly against its rules of engagement, but I wonder if this tragic outcome more accurately reflects the IDF's actual, and likely laissez faire, rules of engagement in Gaza? Probably.

It would certainly be one of the all-time great coincidences if the only 3 shirtless, white-flag carrying people they killed were hostages.

This PPE scandal is just that and an utter disgrace as well.

Mone and Barrowman made £60 MILLION profit and the gowns they supplied weren't fit for purpose. There's a fuss about she lied to the press etc but the disgraceful profiteering and fact the medical equipment supplied was un-useable is much worse.

Hope they both serve time.

mountain man wrote:This PPE scandal is just that and an utter disgrace as well.

Mone and Barrowman made £60 MILLION profit and the gowns they supplied weren't fit for purpose. There's a fuss about she lied to the press etc but the disgraceful profiteering and fact the medical equipment supplied was un-useable is much worse.

Hope they both serve time.

Potential profiteering aside, one of the things I don't get about this case and other similar ones, is why payment apparently wasn't contingent on the kit being fit for purpose. Surely if any supplied PPE wasn't actually up to the standards required (and presumably stipulated in any contract), then no payments should be forthcoming? Or maybe Mone is correct - they supplied to contract and it's the Government at fault for not having a clue as to requirements? Either way, pretty scandalous, as you say.

Its amazing. Michelle Mone has come out of hiding and has come out swinging. If she’s going down she’s taking as many of them with her as she can.

Very unwelcome by-election for the Tories coming up, as Peter Bone has been recalled by his constituents.

The type of constituency that the Tories would likely win in the upcoming GE, but in a by-election Labour can probably overturn the 36% deficit.

Tories have announced the spring budget will be on March the 6th, fueling speculation that a well-received budget will see a dash to the polls in May. But even a well received budget will not eradicate Labour's lead, currently between 11 and 21%.

It's been just over two years since the Tories last had a lead in a poll. If Sunak wants some optimism, Cameron's Tories trailed Labour for just over two years (2012-2014), before turning it around when it mattered. Although Labour's lead under Miliband rarely got into double digits, while it has been constantly double digits under Starmer.

2024 will be a mammoth year for putting bits of paper in boxes, then having them counted by bleary-eyed officials.

As well as the GE in the UK, there's the Presidential election in the US, the GEs in India and Indonesia, the first European Parliament elections since the UK left, plus a totally fair Presidential election in Russia. And parliamentary elections in Belgium and Austria, with right-wing parties on the rise, and also in Portugal, where the Socialist Party are struggling to hold on after a successful 2022.

There's the Taiwanese presidential election next month, where the Chinese nationalist party candidate is gaining on the poll leader, which could have huge ramifications between the US and China. The Iranians are also going to the polls this year, as are the Pakistanis for their first GE in six years.

Mexicans will be deciding on their next President in June. This one is interesting because both leading candidates are women, thereby virtually ensuring that Mexico will have its first female President, and would cap the extraordinary efforts Mexico have made in order to ensure more women are in political life in their country. And there's the elections in South Africa, where the ANC may poll below 50% of the vote for the first time since winning governance of the country in 1994.

Overall, more than two billion can head to the polls in 2024 in around 50 different countries. It may be the first set of elections where we properly see the effects of malicious AI.

Wow ! Thanks for that well researched list , Duty. You might even have an Australian poll to add yet as they often love to surprise the voters

All up , Trussman should have a ball if he fancies widening his horizons...

Hope everyone had a good Christmas and is looking forward to 2024.

Nice to see that Netanyahu is doubling down on his state-sponsored massacre. Then again, why wouldn't he? Had an interesting read over the break - would recommend 'The Palestine Laboratory' by Antony Loewenstein to anyone as insight into the Israeli defence industry, dodgy spyware etc. As well as providing more evidence of what Israel really is, somewhat concerning re. the wider world.

Incidentally, came across the following, from the Likud Party's 1977 party platform (my highlight):

"The right of the Jewish people to the land of Israel is eternal and indisputable and is linked with the right to security and peace; therefore, Judea and Samaria will not be handed to any foreign administration; between the Sea and the Jordan there will only be Israeli sovereignty."

Strange. There I was, thinking that "from the river to the sea" was an anti-Semitic phrase only used by Palestinian terrorists.

Also:

"A plan which relinquishes parts of western Eretz Israel, undermines our right to the country, unavoidably leads to the establishment of a "Palestinian State," jeopardizes the security of the Jewish population, endangers the existence of the State of Israel and frustrates any prospect of peace."

Seems to me that they have absolutely no intent to do anything but continue a ~45-year old plan to annex the West Bank as part of Israel, in contravention of UN statute. It was there in plain black and white all along, while paying lip service to the kaput idea of some so-called 'two-state solution'.

Happy New Year...

mountain man wrote:Unquestionably both sides are to blame for what's happening. Hamas triggered it on Oct 7th but this has been ongoing for a very long time and Israel are obviously determined to wipe out Hamas at any and all cost.

Does anyone seriously believe even if Hamas are eliminated then there will be peace between Israel and Palestine? Not a hope.

I agree, mate, no one, including the Israelis believe cutting off one of the heads of the hydra, as it were, will be any guarantee of peace.  Israel, in my opinion, had become far too lax and confident in their own abilities leading to the intelligence and judgement failures preceding the October 7 atrocities.  Their reason for being is to be a place where Jews can live in relative peace after 2000 years of bad history.  They can never rest.  

In the past I spent a lot of time in the region whether with the Army, Doctors w/o Borders, and UNHCR and in the many conversations with the locals, they mostly just want everything to stop.  Most of the locals don't like, respect, or want Hamas.  But feel powerless to do anything.  Just like the way the narcos and the criminal organizations are growing and taking control in parts of Mexico.  And the civilians are caught in the middle, as usual.

Oops! Accidentally (on purpose?) letting the cat of the bag? Smotrich really should keep his mouth shut, unless, of course, he knows that kind of thinking is going to be happily tolerated by the wider world and, in particular the U.S.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/israeli-official-gaza-ghetto-palestinians_n_6591f45de4b0b01d3e40260c

doctor_grey wrote:...Their reason for being is to be a place where Jews can live in relative peace after 2000 years of bad history.  They can never rest.  

Yeah; I completely get this. However, I don't think anyone would reasonably think that the answer is to dispossess, abuse, exile, murder etc another people in order that this can occur.

The answer is, and always should have been, a one-state solution in 1948 where everyone has the same rights etc as citizens of a new state in the region covering Israel as it now is, plus Gaza and the West Bank. It still is the answer, but I can't see how on Earth it could happen now, especially with the current waste of space that's the UN. However, the Palestinians aren't going to give up their claims on that land, and nor should they. I wonder if Israel might be one of the most dangerous places on the planet for Jews to make their home? Ironic.

The Tories have picked Peter Bone's girlfriend/partner to fight the Wellingborough by-election. A laughable selection, though she's not a political novice being a current councillor and having stood as an MP previously.

Should be an easy job for Labour to win this by-election. They're 1/7 favourites with William Hill.

And Skidmore has recently resigned. It's difficult to keep up with all these resignations! His constituency of Kingswood has a near 23% majority over Labour, with the Lib Dems a negligible presence. Should be another by-election victory for Labour.

This would take the total to 21 by-elections under the current Parliament, equaling the total between the 2010-2015 Parliament, although I imagine that 21 total will still grow.

The first poll of 2024 puts Labour ahead by 47-25%. Some good data analysis from Ben Walker shows that, usually, the lead for opposition parties generally tightens in the run-up to polling day. Starmer's lead over Sunak in the H2H isn't as big as Labour would like, but their lead in the economic stakes is quite telling.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2024/01/to-win-the-tories-need-to-defy-electoral-history

Duty281 wrote:The Tories have picked Peter Bone's girlfriend/partner to fight the Wellingborough by-election. A laughable selection, though she's not a political novice being a current councillor and having stood as an MP previously.

Should be an easy job for Labour to win this by-election. They're 1/7 favourites with William Hill.

And Skidmore has recently resigned. It's difficult to keep up with all these resignations! His constituency of Kingswood has a near 23% majority over Labour, with the Lib Dems a negligible presence. Should be another by-election victory for Labour.

This would take the total to 21 by-elections under the current Parliament, equaling the total between the 2010-2015 Parliament, although I imagine that 21 total will still grow.

The first poll of 2024 puts Labour ahead by 47-25%. Some good data analysis from Ben Walker shows that, usually, the lead for opposition parties generally tightens in the run-up to polling day. Starmer's lead over Sunak in the H2H isn't as big as Labour would like, but their lead in the economic stakes is quite telling.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2024/01/to-win-the-tories-need-to-defy-electoral-history

Caveat with the polling is that the Tories will most certainly go for a Winter election......Which means turnout will be down.  Generally those on the right are more inclined to vote.  But I will be staggered if Labour don't win a substantial majority nonetheless.

Hence the articles of Labour warning against apathy as they know 20 points is fanciful.....I'll probably not be voting.  My eldest will vote Tory and Red will probably vote for the Reform party if they stand...

Lab v Liberal seat....So their endeavours will be fruitless.

The Tories will obviously hold out as long as they feel they can, so probably October/November. Two reasons:
1 - Macoreconomic indicators are going the right way - interest rates likely to fall, along with the already-dropping ortgage rates, and inflation working out of the system, aided by currently relatively low fuel prices. Won't be enough to save the Tories, as a lot of the opposition to them is of the 'tired, need a change' type rather than about any specific policies on the economy.

2 - Governments expecting to lose are not likely to rush to the polls early. Want to sty in power as long as possible.

dummy_half wrote:

2 - Governments expecting to lose are not likely to rush to the polls early. Want to sty in power as long as possible.

You learn something new everyday..

Tories know they have lost the next GE.........They are busy working out what seats are salvageable I imagine.....The demographic...any local issues in 5-10,000 majority seats making it difficult for Labour.....Then they can chuck more money at those seats and tailor their final budget bribes....

Damage limitation for sure.....

There won't be any money for a Labour Govt and ignorant lefties will think the Starmer Clown will be radical when he won't be....So 2029 if it isn't a wipeout will be in play..