2nd RWC 2023 semi-final England v South Africa

Having just watched that awesome match with France and seeing the SA players, with family, parade around the ground I can't help feeling that our main hope of not being thrashed lies in their complacency. They will go in as massive favourites and rightly so. England will be fighting for their very lives to avoid humiliation and this often brings out the best in teams. I don't think it will be enough, but it might help keep the score to below 45.

Realistically do we have a prayer?

Let's see what the butcher's bill will be for both sides first. England will benefit from having an easier run to date but it should not be enough

Lost by 20 points four years ago and England are a lot worse now. If England did manage to get to the final it would be even stranger than 2007. I just hope it's not too much of a battering.

maybe the scoreline is not as bad as it could/should be as SA will take their foot off the gas in preparation for the final. Maybe 25 points up after 55 mins and then the game peters out?

Huge - I genuinely believe that in tournament play anything can happen and England are much better than they were in the summer. At the same time, any England fan who watched that France game where the Boks played with the most lethal possible combo of bezerker intensity, good judgement and control cannot really think they have more than a puncher's chance.

The issue for the Boks is less likely to be complacency than emotional exhaustion. They will feel like they've already played their final and that is not good for them. The advantage England has is the slow trajectory of constantly upwards momentum - they will be expecting an increasingly good performance and a better one than last time.

What I will say is that if England beats this SA team it will be the most impressive RWC result for England since the final in 2003.

It's a one off game, absolutely nothing is impossible.
Odds look against England, but a few early points the bounce of the ball going your way, and I could see you digging in to win the match.
Equally I can see the boks winning it by 40.

But I imagine it will be a tight game

Obviously SA massive favourites. But it is a one-off game with a funny shaped ball and some rules which can turn a minor misjudgement into disaster so anything is - just about - possible...

I just hope for a proper contest. If it is anything like these QFs I will be happy whoever wins.

Would love to see England cause an upset. A SA-NZ final would be too predictable and the RWC needs a long overdue shake up.

I mean, it's the stuff of fantasy but imagine a Arg-Eng final!

They'll be a lot of pressure on SA to win and much less on us. 7/10 times SA win this on neutral ground for me.....we have a slim hope.

Proud of the boys for making it to the final 4 after a turgid few years and being the shining light for the Northern hemisphere.

Being brutally honest I can't see how England beat SA but I guess we'll see.
Borthwick be staying so pointless moaning about replacing him.
I just want to see team rebuilt for next RWC cycle.

Well, it is a new game, it is a one off test. First we have to assess what damage there is to both squads. Injuries and fatigue and especially mental fatigue might play a big role here.

The Boks will need to find a way to refresh quickly, then acknowledge the fact that England isn't a crap side.

Nothing is a forgone conclusion, it wasn't in the 2019 final, and it wasn't this weekend, so why should it be next weekend?

I just think SA pack and bench far too strong and they have excellent backs in a settled side. Nothing decided yet for sure but odds stacked against Eng.
I suppose looking on bright side England only team not to have lost a match so far

Said before the tournament started I expected to make this stage then get put out fairly easily. Knock out comps though and it's sport so there's always the chance to go through. I'd say we have a better chance against SA but it's like say would you rather pet a lion or a tiger. They'll be well on top at scrum, there's a vague hope the lineoit will be out equal. We have no game plan for our backline though other than chase. Perhaps as Eddie got obsessed by a lock at flanker last time Borthwick may realise you can play proper wingers who are on the small side after this match!?

I said before the Fiji game that a par result would be a 7 point win for England, that's exactly how it turned out and I didn't see any evidence that England have been holding back/have some amazing fitness boost from summer training. Unfortunately for us a par result now is South Africa winning by about 25-30 points, and I'm not sure how that's turned around.

My only thought in advance of the game is - expect drop goals. It's clearly something they've been working on, probably with the intention of it being a bit of a surprise tactic come the semi-finals to ensure points with each visit to the 22. But, we saw it against Argentina briefly when they were in a bit of a situation with the red card, and saw it again yesterday when under pressure at the end - situations they'd probably hoped not to find themselves in. Next weekend I'm expecting it from the off as it gives the best chance of keeping the scoreboard moving and maybe getting something out of the game.

Realistically though an improved performance from England would mean losing by less than 20. And the most likely source of a win is South Africa having an off day because they've got their eye on the final already, or an early red card or two. Again, I'd love to be proved wrong but there's no evidence we should be expecting anything other than a big South Africa win.

Re the drop goals you can see throughout the warm ups that players are constantly practicing including guys like Marchant. Marchant was also practicing his lineout throws against the crossbar.

We will definitely need to play three competent catchers in the back three, so that looks like May, Arundell and Steward, or maybe
Marchant, Arundell and Steward. We need to pose more of a threat than we currently do. This would also give us both Manu and Lawrence in the centres. Good as he has been in the past, I would also have Ludlam over Curry. Curry seems to have a problem with his attitude at the moment, gives away penalties and then just laughs at the ref. Very effective defensively, but offers little going forward. Ludlam does both.

carpet baboon wrote:It's a one off game, absolutely nothing is impossible.
Odds look against England, but a few early points the bounce of the ball going your way, and I could see you digging in to win the match.
Equally I can see the boks winning it by 40.

But I imagine it will be a tight game

Was just coming on here to say exactly the same. Knock out rugby, anything is possible. From memory no-one expected England to beat NZ 4 years ago but they turned up and gave them a good beating (physically, not necessarily a high score on the scoreboard). The odds are obviously completely stacked against England this time but you never know.

According to the ESPN stats Curry made 20 tackles (+3 missed) which is more than anyone else on either side. Those tackles were often 'dominant' if you like that term. If you are going to replace him with anyone then it should definitely be Ludlam (who, of course, should have been in for Vunipola as he'd have massively helped with defense when it was going wrong) but Curry absolutely did the job he was chosen for.

Current betting point spread I see is SA by 13.5

If Eng only get beaten by 14 that's good going!

By the way 7 5, I know Ireland didn't bottle it, they were immense. I'm just winding up that utter or@ck Finkelstein who now supports England. Until they lose then it'll be SA or NZ etc.

TAFKA The Oracle wrote:
Was just coming on here to say exactly the same.  Knock out rugby, anything is possible.  From memory no-one expected England to beat NZ 4 years ago but they turned up and gave them a good beating (physically, not necessarily a high score on the scoreboard).  The odds are obviously completely stacked against England this time but you never know.  

Definitely no-one in New Zealand expected it, I didn't think it was a particularly big shock though. My memory is that both teams were playing well, and most expected it to be a tough tight game. The difference this time is that England aren't playing well, and 2023 SA are probably better than 2019 NZ. I will support and cheer for England and I'd be delighted to be proved wrong, I just genuinely cannot see how they make a big enough step up to beat this SA team - without SA being complacent/ red carded early/ etc.

Well England just keep working on what they're doing.

They obliterated Fiji at the breakdown...after eveyrone said they're amongst the best in the world there.
Our defence was excellent for 60 mins, had a blip giving away two tries ...then recovered. Must be on it for 80 mins!
And Fijis physicality is a nice wamr up for SA.

Its pragmatic...and we're playing the most pragmatic team in the world next.

I would actually far rather play SA than France funnily enough.

Bring it on.

Geordie wrote:

I would actually far rather play SA than France funnily enough.

Bring it on.

In a sense I agree - but only in that I think England can potentially do better against SA than France. But, if I'm honest I had really hoped France would win this year, they are well overdue a world cup win and the way they are playing is a joy to watch. I'm gutted they are out.

Big wrote:
Definitely no-one in New Zealand expected it, I didn't think it was a particularly big shock though.  My memory is that both teams were playing well, and most expected it to be a tough tight game.  The difference this time is that England aren't playing well, and 2023 SA are probably better than 2019 NZ.  I will support and cheer for England and I'd be delighted to be proved wrong, I just genuinely cannot see how they make a big enough step up to beat this SA team - without SA being complacent/ red carded early/ etc.

Whether a team plays well or not often depends on how good the opposition are at nullifying their strengths and gameplan. England shut down Fiji's breakdown play for most of the game, and put their bodies on the line against some powerful runners. They prevented Argentina from getting the ball wide, and kept the scoreboard building to make them chase the game.

South Africa will be a different and harder challenge, but Borthwick has been pretty good at picking tactics to counter the opposition so far. The question is whether they can sustain it for 80 minutes, especially against the bomb squad, and whether they can create enough in attack to get points on the board. One odd thing that my play to England's advantage is that because they don't have a settled attacking pattern, it's quite hard for the opposition to develop tactics to counter them. Of course, it's also quite hard or England to put a string of play together, but it only has to happen a couple of times for the game to get interesting.

A couple of other random thoughts:
- Given that England have shown a knack for drop goals when under pressure, I wonder if we might see a reverse of the 1999 Jannie de Beer tactic, with England looking for the drop whenever they are in range, rather than waste effort trying to break down the defene?
- I'd imagine that, with Ireland now out, the Farrell family chat will be flowing with insights on what Ireland learned from their pool game.

England is a dangerous proposition for the Boks. Nothing to loose, little pressure or expectation. Setting up perfectly for them to have the game of their lives and mount a massive challenge. There is a lot of experience, physicality and brains in that English side. The Boks would fear Ford more than Owen.

If I was Rassie I would highlight Curry's dangerous tackling technique off the back of touching on Owens. His low 'knee-breaker' shoulder charge tackles are potential career enders. Cannot be right or seen as safe. The use of arms is required for tackles above and below the hips.

Looking at the Boks they have so many options of who and how to play. I really like the new found ability to 'strike from anywhere' on top of their usual relentlessness, physicality, kicking game and defence. Such a well layered team now.

MMaaxx wrote:England is a dangerous proposition for the Boks. Nothing to loose, little pressure or expectation. Setting up perfectly for them to have the game of their lives and mount a massive challenge. There is a lot of experience, physicality and brains in that English side. The Boks would fear Ford more than Owen.

If I was Rassie I would highlight Curry's dangerous tackling technique off the back of touching on Owens. His low 'knee-breaker' shoulder charge tackles are potential career enders. Cannot be right or seen as safe. The use of arms is required for tackles above and below the hips.

Looking at the Boks they have so many options of who and how to play. I really like the new found ability to 'strike from anywhere' on top of their usual relentlessness, physicality, kicking game and defence. Such a well layered team now.

There were a couple of tackles like that but relatively sure Curry only did it the once and got penalised for the pleasure. He does make a lot of hard tackles though.

That's of course the other problem for England. If they were to somehow beat South Africa then it would require such a monumental effort that I doubt they would have anything left for the final; which I'm expecting NZ to be in absolute tip-top condition for as they should coast by Argentina.

9 times out of 10, though, SA will beat England. I think the only thing in England's favour is that SA have just come through a game of astonishing intensity, which they only have six days of recovery for. A red card in game might also tip the scales, but I think you have to commit full on GBH for that to happen.

I hope Ludlum plays instead of Curry who is another red card in waiting plus I think Ludlum as good if not better.
I'd also start Steward 15 and if he's fit, Smith bench. He took a battering but did the job.
Arundell in 23 at least.

mountain man wrote:I hope Ludlum plays instead of Curry who is another red card in waiting plus I think Ludlum as good if not better.
I'd also start Steward 15 and if he's fit, Smith bench. He took a battering but did the job.
Arundell in 23 at least.

I initially thought that of Curry, but once Raynal had decided that the no-arms tackle was penalty only (which I think was fair - it was pretty clear on the replay that he'd overbalanced rather than it being a deliberate shoulder barge), he grew into the game. He was clearly tasked with slowing down the breakdown, and that's always going to incur Richie McCaw's regulation 2 penalties early in the game. But once he'd calibrated it, I thought he played a very controlled game and frustrated Botia over and over. His tackle stats were huge as well.

Poorfour wrote:

mountain man wrote:I hope Ludlum plays instead of Curry who is another red card in waiting plus I think Ludlum as good if not better.
I'd also start Steward 15 and if he's fit, Smith bench. He took a battering but did the job.
Arundell in 23 at least.

I initially thought that of Curry, but once Raynal had decided that the no-arms tackle was penalty only (which I think was fair - it was pretty clear on the replay that he'd overbalanced rather than it being a deliberate shoulder barge), he grew into the game. He was clearly tasked with slowing down the breakdown, and that's always going to incur Richie McCaw's regulation 2 penalties early in the game. But once he'd calibrated it, I thought he played a very controlled game and frustrated Botia over and over. His tackle stats were huge as well.

This. 20 tackles (+3 missed) - and most of those the kind which stop all momentum against a team full of the most powerful and dangerous runners. We notice the mistakes. We notice the lack of penetration from Fiji (and of course what happens when they did break through the defense) but we don't always notice who was responsible. It was one of Curry's better performances from recent years even if it was the definition of unseen work.

The only player in any of the 4 games who made more tackles was Cane for NZ with 22

lostinwales wrote:

Poorfour wrote:

mountain man wrote:I hope Ludlum plays instead of Curry who is another red card in waiting plus I think Ludlum as good if not better.
I'd also start Steward 15 and if he's fit, Smith bench. He took a battering but did the job.
Arundell in 23 at least.

I initially thought that of Curry, but once Raynal had decided that the no-arms tackle was penalty only (which I think was fair - it was pretty clear on the replay that he'd overbalanced rather than it being a deliberate shoulder barge), he grew into the game. He was clearly tasked with slowing down the breakdown, and that's always going to incur Richie McCaw's regulation 2 penalties early in the game. But once he'd calibrated it, I thought he played a very controlled game and frustrated Botia over and over. His tackle stats were huge as well.

This. 20 tackles (+3 missed) - and most of those the kind which stop all momentum against a team full of the most powerful and dangerous runners. We notice the mistakes. We notice the lack of penetration from Fiji (and of course what happens when they did break through the defense) but we don't always notice who was responsible. It was one of Curry's better performances from recent years even if it was the definition of unseen work.

The only player in any of the 4 games who made more tackles was Cane for NZ with 22

Surely the incompetent Borthwick isnt actually bringing players back to form? Curry, Itoje, Earls playing really well....nah cant be...

It's odd to be in a semi-final feeling it's likely to be journey end, rather than a chance for glory.

In 2007, when we were dreadful, the win over Australia changed the mood instantly. Australia were expected to beat us, and the victory showed we finally had a limited but effective gameplan.

Anything is possible in rugby, and it would be fantastic if we could catch the Boks cold. Hope we can cut out forward passes, and knock-ons, to keep the scrum count down.

Seeing as when England in 2003 won RWC the head coach Woodward was knighted, I wonder if in the admittedly freakishly unlikely event England repeat feat this time will 7.5 give up his nationality should Borthwick also get the old sword tap on shoulder....

Well i hope they slip with the sword if he does.

mountain man wrote:Seeing as when England in 2003 won RWC the head coach Woodward was knighted, I wonder if in the admittedly freakishly unlikely event England repeat feat this time will 7.5 give up his nationality should Borthwick also get the old sword tap on shoulder....

Not only the tap on the shoulder, but also membership of the Magic Circle as it truly would be magic.

Interestingly but maybe unsurprisingly there are plenty of tickets available for the semi finals on the official site now that most NH sides are out.

mountain man wrote:I hope Ludlum plays instead of Curry who is another red card in waiting plus I think Ludlum as good if not better.
I'd also start Steward 15 and if he's fit, Smith bench. He took a battering but did the job.
Arundell in 23 at least.

100% agree on this. I mentioned this before but for non-England fans, I don't think Curry has ever delivered on the deafening hype surrounding the early part of his career. He was touted as a founding member of the McCaw Invisibility Cloak Society and faster than Cheslin Kolbe on crack. I just don't see it.

Every time I've watched him he's either been carded or cautioned. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he's excellent but Ludlum is a surer thing here and England have to keep the penalty count down or they'll be defending driving malls up the wazoo all day.

George Carlin wrote:

mountain man wrote:I hope Ludlum plays instead of Curry who is another red card in waiting plus I think Ludlum as good if not better.
I'd also start Steward 15 and if he's fit, Smith bench. He took a battering but did the job.
Arundell in 23 at least.

100% agree on this. I mentioned this before but for non-England fans, I don't think Curry has ever delivered on the deafening hype surrounding the early part of his career. He was touted as a founding member of the McCaw Invisibility Cloak Society and faster than Cheslin Kolbe on crack. I just don't see it.  

Every time I've watched him he's either been carded or cautioned. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he's excellent but Ludlum is a surer thing here and England have to keep the penalty count down or they'll be defending driving malls up the wazoo all day.

lostinwales wrote:

George Carlin wrote:

mountain man wrote:I hope Ludlum plays instead of Curry who is another red card in waiting plus I think Ludlum as good if not better.
I'd also start Steward 15 and if he's fit, Smith bench. He took a battering but did the job.
Arundell in 23 at least.

100% agree on this. I mentioned this before but for non-England fans, I don't think Curry has ever delivered on the deafening hype surrounding the early part of his career. He was touted as a founding member of the McCaw Invisibility Cloak Society and faster than Cheslin Kolbe on crack. I just don't see it.  

Every time I've watched him he's either been carded or cautioned. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he's excellent but Ludlum is a surer thing here and England have to keep the penalty count down or they'll be defending driving malls up the wazoo all day.

Ludlum is an honest player, but was shown up against France in the 6 Nations for what he is.  Curry is first choice for Borthwick, was for Eddie Jones, was for Gats and the Lions, was for Steve Diamond at Sale, etc, etc.  I think England have more chance of winning the world cup than Ludlum has of replacing Curry in the starting team on Saturday.

It seems to be a different England player each week who is useless and should be dropped - Curry this week, Farrell last week, Itoje the week before, Ben Youngs ......

So you think Young's should start then? He was first choice for Jones and Borthwick but does anyone really think he's best option?

My mates and I have a Ben Youngs drinking game - any time his box kicks either (a) get charged down or (b) are almost charged down, you have to drink. Try it. You'll be @rseholed by half time.

And De Klerk and his two wings are fast to to the charge down...

mountain man wrote:So you think Young's should start then? He was first choice for Jones and Borthwick but does anyone really think he's best option?

I can’t imagine anyone thinks that Youngs should be out there. Going forward, I’m not so worried about the scrum halves as I am about other positions in the team. After the RWC Mitchell will be in the pool with JVP, Quirke, and is Randall still in the mix too?  All holding down the fort for Archie McParland…..

There's a young lad by the name of Charlie bracken (son of kyren bracken) who's a pretty decent 9 too. Got to be careful as he also qualifies for Ireland I think.

Kyren was born in Ireland so would make his son Irish qualified, although given Kyren played for England I'd say you are safe enough his son would too.

Guess I'm a South Africa fan now for the rest of the World Cup then.

Partly because they are our URC comrades (I even brought myself to support Wales last weekend for that reason, felt wrong)
Partly because they play England (nothing to do with the Ireland/England thing I just haven't forgiven you all for the several hour wait in hell (Stanstead) this summer trying to get home yet)
Partly because Kitshoff is now an Ulsterman (was inevitable really, the man is ginger)
But mostly because I really like that home kit of theirs (yep pretty much just have to show me pretty things to get my support)

On the other hand if England do manage to win this one then the video Rassie releases next week would be legendary and we would get Kitshoff a week earlier so I guess I'm happy either way.

Stephen get your Kitshoff is the most Irish looking Bok in memory

neilthom7 wrote:Guess I'm a South Africa fan now for the rest of the World Cup then.

Partly because they are our URC comrades (I even brought myself to support Wales last weekend for that reason, felt wrong)
Partly because they play England (nothing to do with the Ireland/England thing I just haven't forgiven you all for the several hour wait in hell (Stanstead) this summer trying to get home yet)
Partly because Kitshoff is now an Ulsterman (was inevitable really, the man is ginger)
But mostly because I really like that home kit of theirs (yep pretty much just have to show me pretty things to get my support)

On the other hand if England do manage to win this one then the video Rassie releases next week would be legendary and we would get Kitshoff a week earlier so I guess I'm happy either way.

There is a 3rd/4th nobody wants to play-off

Although Borthwick has been prepared to make big selection decisions, we haven't seen him devise, let alone implement, a plan to counter a specific challenge.

Ironically, one coach who has proved to be good at preparing an underdog team to meet a poweful opponent is Eddie Jones. That's not to say we'd have been better off hanging on to him. In one possible timeline, an Eddie Jones England could have been knocked out in a quarter-final match by a Dave Rennie Wallabies. Getting rid of Jones might ultimately have smoothed our way to the semi-final by removing Australia from the picture.

With South Africa's kick and chase game, starting Marcus Smith at full back seems like too high a risk. Without him, we have fewer ways to score any points. Maybe our best bet is a repeat of the first match against Argentina, with Farrell breaking Jannie de Beer's drop goal record.

Yes, we have. Argentina came into the RWC on a pretty high note, and England both had and executed a plan to nullify their attack - something that Gstland’s Wales subsequently failed to do. It was a good enough plan that it even survived 67 minutes of being a man down. Whatever the attacking plan had been for that match went out of the window with Curry’s red card, but the plan B of taking the points on offer was also pretty effective.