November internationals expectations

In a couple of weeks the Autumn international window opens, what are the expectations for your team (and others if you have an opinion)

Will coaches play their best teams, will they rotate, will they experiment with an eye on 2027, how does your depth look like, are there any exciting players you would like to see get their shot?

From a Springbok perspective We kick off with Scotland on the 10th, then England on the 16th and finish the year with Wales on the23rd.

Rassie has been rotating his squad throughout the year thus far, using 49 players in ten tests. It is possible that he might bring in one or two new players on tour so they can get a feel for the Springbok environment.

The important question is who will be in his touring party. Rumours are he will pick a squad of around 35 players.

My expectation would be that players who have missed out on game time and coming back from injury will definitely be in the squad and get plenty of minutes. Guys like Damian Willemse, Faf de Klerk, Franco Mostert and Jean Kleyn will make a welcome return, RG Snyman who hasn't had a lot of minutes will feature as well.

Due to the injury to Sacha Feinberg Mngomozulu Pollard and Manie Libbok will the tens, and at 15 I suspect due to the return of Damian Willemse, Willie le Roux will make way for Fassi. warrick Gelant would possibly be the third selection at fullback, however it is oplikely him and Willemse could be used as utility backs as well.

Edwill v d Merwe will most likely be included alongside Kolbe and Arendse at wing.

There are other permutations that will be crucial as well, but the 10 and 15 combinations and the return of some injured locks could present as the interesting development in the Bok game.

Of course I am hoping for three wins, but you never know how these experimentations turn out.

I'd expect England to go for continuity from the summer tour in the first three tests, as far as injuries permit, because they will want to be full strength for NZ and SA, and will probably not want to tinker too much against Oz. They may experiment against Japan if the other games have gone well.

At a guess, the XXIII could be
Genge George Cole
Itoje Chessum
CCS Earl Underhill

?? Smith,M
Lawrence Lozowski
Feyi-Waboso Furbank Freeman

Dan Baxter Stuart
Martin Coles
?? Smith F
Lozowski (but could be one of several given the versatility in the backline)

The big unknown is with Mitchell out who will be scrum half. Spencer has the experience, JvP should be the obvious choice but is only just back from injury and Randall has the experience with Smith at age grade. It may come down to who goes best in practice.

England and New Zealand might have the most pressure to put in a good performance.

Both sides lost a two-match away series against higher-ranked opposition, where there were hopes of registering a win. Both have had widely-publicized coaching changes.

England supporters want a Springbok or All Black scalp. A double victory would be a real boost, and would help offset a slip-up elsewhere in Autumn. If we only manage wins against Australia and Japan (neither of which are givens), then there won't be any sense of improvement.

New Zealand supporters would forgive a lot else on tour if they can beat Ireland. Ireland are ranked No.1, and they managed a win over the Boks, when the All Blacks couldn't. There's still some scores to settle over the World Cup quarter final, which have been stoked up again by the Sexton book. A bit like England, a mediocre to poor outcome for New Zealand would be wins over Japan, England and Italy, and losses to Ireland and France.

In some respects, the rugby world would give South Africa a pass if they happened to drop a match. It would probably be written off as Rassie trying something, just as he did in Argentina. Mind you, Springbok supporters would probably be livid.

Rugby Fan wrote:

In some respects, the rugby world would give South Africa a pass if they happened to drop a match. It would probably be written off as Rassie trying something, just as he did in Argentina. Mind you, Springbok supporters would probably be livid.

Many SA fans believe in Rassie without question. I understand their loyalty to whatever he decides, however for me if the Boks want to be part of the same conversation as the best team ever they need to achieve a 90% win rate between RWC.

That has never happened before for various reasons. Since 2019 under Rassie and Nienaber the Boks have dropped a number of matches where they made wholsale changes to teams due to experimentation, whilst necessary as part of depth development, these radical changes from one test to another removes continuity and for experimental teams with not enough experienced players it can often be the difference.

In 2019 the Boks had 10 wins from 12 matches =83.33%
In 2021 the Boks had 8 wins from 13 matches =61.53%
In 2022 the Boks had 8 wins from 13 matches =61.53%
In 2023 the Boks had 11 wins from 13 matches = 84.61%
In 2024 so far the Boks had 8 wins from 10 matches =80%

That is an overall win rate of 73.77%

Up to now that is nowhere near what the AB's did between 2011 and 2015.

I think Rassie needs to strike a better balance with his rotations and experimentations. This year is looking good so far, considering the number of injuries he also had to content with, if he ends the year on 11/13 it could be considered acceptable. 10/13 or worse not so much.

For Scotland I’d expect more game time for some of the summer development tour players. Given Edinburgh have been poor, Gus Warr seems likely to be back alongside Horne and White with Dobie and Ben Ashfar available outside the international window.

Glasgow will make up the bulk of the squad, with Ewan Ferrie and Tom Jordan ready to step up to international level. 

Big question marks hang over certain players at Edinburgh but ultimately they will supply a chunk of players such as Schoe, Ashman, Gilchrist, Ritchie, VDM, Graham etc. Some others will miss out given the poor form of the club and rising stock of Glasgow. 

Not sure we’ll have any tombola selections but Burke at Saracens is one possibility. 

Richie Gray is leaving Glasgow at the end of November so this may be the last time we see the gray bros play alongside each other. Gilchrist is not in good form and recent injury to Cummings mean he’s been out so there’s a good chance we’ll see a few changes in the second row. 

SA is the big one and Fiji first up is a good one to prep the side for the physicality of the Boks a week later.

For England 2 wins is minimum expectation and those are realistically against Aus and Japan. 3 wins be very good and probably against NZ given they have dipped. 4 wins be incredible but highly unlikely I think.

If England play well but lose close games against NZ and SA then OK could accept that if team plays well etc. A hammering at home would not be pleasant.
A loss to either Aus or Japan doesn't bear thinking about.

mountain man wrote:For England 2 wins is minimum expectation and those are realistically against Aus and Japan. 3 wins be very good and probably against NZ given they have dipped. 4 wins be incredible but highly unlikely I think.

If England play well but lose close games against NZ and SA then OK could accept that if team plays well etc. A hammering at home would not be pleasant.
A loss to either Aus or Japan doesn't bear thinking about.

To be honest I think England could perform very well this autumn. They fought valiantly against the Boks during the World Cup and made progress in the six nations despite a few losses. The tour to NZ was very hard fought as well. They’re not far off from a breakthrough. It’s just a shame they had to hire new assistant coaches unexpectedly.

Just realised Ireland have issues at hooker this autumn. Sheehan out, Kelleher probably out. Herring and Stewart both currently injured at Ulster. Not sure about the other provinces hookers though. Could be an opening for some young upstart to make an impact

mountain man wrote:For England 2 wins is minimum expectation and those are realistically against Aus and Japan. 3 wins be very good and probably against NZ given they have dipped. 4 wins be incredible but highly unlikely I think.

If England play well but lose close games against NZ and SA then OK could accept that if team plays well etc. A hammering at home would not be pleasant.
A loss to either Aus or Japan doesn't bear thinking about.

I honestly think England should be winning three games. I think if they cant beat one of the Boks or NZ at home thats a bad November for them.

They have the players, management is well embedded now bar some departures. NZ are very beatable and the Boks while there are very strong their away record isnt always stellar.

Maine man wrote:Just realised Ireland have issues at hooker this autumn. Sheehan out, Kelleher probably out. Herring and Stewart both currently injured at Ulster. Not sure about the other provinces hookers though. Could be an opening for some young upstart to make an impact

Connacht's Dave Heffernan is likely to be first choice if Herring doesnt recover, after that my guess would be Niall Scannell.

I could easily see England winning just 2 games this Autumn as NZ may well take advantage of new coaching systems/plays especially in defence as a result of the coaching changes. SA are just too strong so wins against Aus and Japan will have to suffice. I am ok with this as long as continue to move in the right direction. Keep the positive play going and try to integrate some more younger talent. Baxter at LH needs more game time and maybe Opoku-Fordjour off the bench V Aussies and to start V Japan. We need to ensure that our back 3 are fully involved in all these matches.

I'd settle for close losses with some good performances against NZ and South Africa. The coaching changes for England may be disruptive but El Abd will have input from Jones and will be looking to carry the same system forward. I think it may also help that most of the key players are now playing under good club systems as well. But it's a tough schedule given the ABs will have had a warm up game.

The key thing is to see whether England can keep their development in attack moving forward, and most critically whether they can handle the change in style when F Smith comes on. He has been good running the attack from 22 to 22 but hasn't been able to unlock things in the red zone, and England have struggled to close out games so far.

Is SB at risk with a poor Autumn?

Geordie wrote:Is SB at risk with a poor Autumn?

I think it depends on how the recent turmoil with coaches is seen within HQ. His performance at the RWC has earned him some time to rebuild, but if they lose faith in his ability to keep a team together it might hurt him.

That said, he's likely safe until the hybrid contracts are in place and have had time to bed in.

bsando wrote: Big question marks hang over certain players at Edinburgh but ultimately they will supply a chunk of players such as Schoe, Ashman, Gilchrist, Ritchie, VDM, Graham etc. Some others will miss out given the poor form of the club and rising stock of Glasgow. 

Not sure we’ll have any tombola selections but Burke at Saracens is one possibility. 

SA is the big one and Fiji first up is a good one to prep the side for the physicality of the Boks a week later.

Fiji may ultimately be the litmus test for several of the Edinburgh players to get into the side to play South Africa. There is a legitimate case that Edinburgh may provide only three or four players in the 23 if Schoe, Ashman and the wings have bad games against Fiji.

Ultimately, wins against Fiji, Australia, Portugal and an "A" win against Chile is the expectation. Beating SA may be a step too far but if Glasgow tour well in the next couple of weeks, it could give us some momentum.

I agree, the momentum Glasgow had at the backend of last season was incredible. It was a masterpiece of coaching by Smith. Certain players had never looked better such as Fagerson bros, Dempsey, Jordan, Huwipulotu, makay and seba. 

Backrow for me is Fagerson and Dempsey with openside a tough one now Christie is injured. Darge and Ritchie are the options for SA but Ferrie, Muncaster, Bayliss are all staking strong claims to bench. 

If Glasgow are top of the URC come the international window I’ll feel more optimistic about Scotland giving the Boks a tough time. My big worry though is that every time I’ve watched a Toonie coached side vs the Boks it’s never been close.

Geordie wrote:Is SB at risk with a poor Autumn?

No I'd say. 2 wins is a minimum I think but even in worse case scenario, get only 1 win (can't in any scenario see Japan beating Eng and find it hard to make a case for Aus) but even if it happened I just can't see him being sacked. The coaching situation is a mess and not sure many have faith that Wigglesworth and Borthwick are going to get best out of talent available but the players are good enough.
Personally I think we have to see how England play as well as results. Progress post Eddie is definitely there despite what some say.

Also if he does go it's then a question of cost and who is there to replace him so factors other than results have to be taken into consideration. They shouldn't be but they will.

hugehandoff wrote:...SA are just too strong...

They were strong in 2021, when England squeezed out a 27-26 win. You never know.

They had a starting front row of Trevor Nyakane, Bongi Mbonambi and Ox Nché, while we had Sinckler, Blamire and Rodd, which looked llike a mismatch, after what happened in the 2019 final. They also had Marx, Kitshoff and Koch on the bench while we had Dolly, Marler and Stuart.

Somehow, it didn't lose us the match.

Though I am hoping for a clean sweep, the Boks haven't delivered a clean sweep in Europe for quite some time. So there is that.

I fully expect the England vs SA match to be a very tight affair, it is anyone's game

Old Man wrote:Though I am hoping for a clean sweep, the Boks haven't delivered a clean sweep in Europe for quite some time. So there is that.

I fully expect the England vs SA match to be a very tight affair, it is anyone's game

It's not the same as a clean sweep, but I just noticed South Africa have never won a Grand Slam (victories over all four Home Nations) in the professional era. There was a chance in 1998, but England won the final match. In 2004, Ireland and England were both winners. The Boks beat Scotland, Wales and England in 2008 but didn't play Ireland. 2010 is a curio, as Andy Robinson's Scotland, courtesy of 21 points from Dan Parks, denied South Africa the Grand Slam.

I could be wrong but, after that, scheduling four Grand Slam matches became more difficult. Italy and France want matches and there are usually more touring sides for the home teams to play.

Quick question regarding watching AIs. I dont have TNT so my plan is to sign up to Discovery+ for month of Nov to watch all matches.
I think it's £30.99 per month so does it work on calender month basis or from day you sign up? As it happens first match is 2nd anyway so if I sign up on 1st Nov I should be good for all matches anyway.

If anyone has any tips and or advice please fire away.

20 min red card being trialled during AIs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/articles/cqxrneew3v1o

Right now it is difficult for me to have any real set of expectations for this England squad.  Getting past the quality of the teams England are playing, it still seems to me there are  significant uncertainties within the group.  Consequently, the only wants I have for this series would be from those ultra-hard-to-define concepts such as improvement, cohesion, reading play on both sides of the ball, accuracy, etc..  

As an example, this group was just bedding in with Mitchell at 9 and were able to play with some urgency and quickness at the right times.  Mitchell won't play this autumn (hopefully by the Six Nations...), and to go from Mitchell to Spencer would seem a regression in tactics.  I'm not sure whether JvP or Randall is next in Borthwick's pecking order, but this seems to me a perfect time get them both out there with real minutes, not cameos.  

I don't think we know our best England front row, second row, or back row.  In the front row I think Genge for sure, no idea about the TH and the best EQ Hooker in the Premiership might not be in the squad.  
In the second row, I agree with Geordie and would like to see Chessum-Martin at some point.  That would also give a clearer view into a potential future as well as an indicator regarding where Itoje is (especially considering the extra minutes he was not supposed to play this year).
In the back row, the only nailed on starter is Earl, though some may say CCS is nailed on as well.  We will see.  
Halfbacks will be ??? and Marcus Smith with Fin riding the pines
In the centres, well I don't think I can start to think about the centres without taking anti-psychotic medication.
The back three are basically set (until the next injury)

Still. I always look forward to the autumn matches every year. It's the kid inside of me popping it's head out (a bit like Alien).

"Breakdown" TV show pundits are bullish about New Zealand's prospects. Jeff Wilson thinks the All Blacks will only trip up against France; John Kirwan thinks Ireland's desire for World Cup revenge will serve up the only defeat, and Mils Muliaina predicts wins across the board.

doctor_grey wrote:Right now it is difficult for me to have any real set of expectations for this England squad.  Getting past the quality of the teams England are playing, it still seems to me there are  significant uncertainties within the group.  Consequently, the only wants I have for this series would be from those ultra-hard-to-define concepts such as improvement, cohesion, reading play on both sides of the ball, accuracy, etc..  

As an example, this group was just bedding in with Mitchell at 9 and were able to play with some urgency and quickness at the right times.  Mitchell won't play this autumn (hopefully by the Six Nations...), and to go from Mitchell to Spencer would seem a regression in tactics.  I'm not sure whether JvP or Randall is next in Borthwick's pecking order, but this seems to me a perfect time get them both out there with real minutes, not cameos.  

I don't think we know our best England front row, second row, or back row.  In the front row I think Genge for sure, no idea about the TH and the best EQ Hooker in the Premiership might not be in the squad.  
In the second row, I agree with Geordie and would like to see Chessum-Martin at some point.  That would also give a clearer view into a potential future as well as an indicator regarding where Itoje is (especially considering the extra minutes he was not supposed to play this year).
In the back row, the only nailed on starter is Earl, though some may say CCS is nailed on as well.  We will see.  
Halfbacks will be ??? and Marcus Smith with Fin riding the pines
In the centres, well I don't think I can start to think about the centres without taking anti-psychotic medication.
The back three are basically set (until the next injury)

Still. I always look forward to the autumn matches every year.  It's the kid inside of me popping it's head out (a bit like Alien).  

I'm expecting England to line up with;

Baxter, George, Stuart
Martin, Itoje
Chessum, Earl, Underhill
JvP, M Smith
Lawrence, Lozowski
IFW, Furbank, Freeman

Dan, Genge, Cole, CCS, T Curry, Spencer, F Smith, Sleightholme

There's going to have to be some adjustment at 9, I'd prefer Spencer to not be involved but think he will be. Lozowski is a pretty direct replacement for the injured Slade. Keeping the set piece prop with the carrying prop seems to work for us. Baxter has a bigger engine then Cole so that way round they start. That bench should have plenty of impact, for more physical impact Steward could replace Sleightholme but with overall balance that's unlikely (and harsh on Steward who's started the season brilliantly and possibly better than Furbank).

England need at least two wins and then to work the other two hard. Against South Africa we might well see the props rotate and it be harsh on Baxter with Marler coming back in for him to add additional set piece security as our options at tighthead are limited. Even more so now with no Heyes in the squad (he's started the season on fire).

New Zealand are a hard team to read. Razor has had a really tough challenge with injuries and retirements. The players are adapting slowly to what he wants and he's having to adapt himself to the difference between club and international rugby. I don't see them winning all their games but I do think there'll be a tough ask for both France and Ireland (not sure they'll beat Ireland, depends what squad France select).

South Africa I'm expecting to be pretty dominant unless they are going to do more squad development.

Wales to win 0/3. Gatland will go on holiday during the week between matches. WRU will keep paying him 600K and thinking he is god's gift.

I see SA just announced their squad, they've welcomed back Mostert. I'm struggling to see where there is a weakness, and expect them to win 3 from 3 quite convincingly.

If Harry Randall doesn't make bench - I don't see him starting - that would be very disappointing. I think on current form JvP starts.

The wallabies have made some interesting selections for their tour. A much hyped league convert and ex leicester centre Harry Potter. Skelton is back, as with Kerevi. They’re playing all the home nations too which adds a bit of interest.

mikey_dragon wrote:I see SA just announced their squad, they've welcomed back Mostert. I'm struggling to see where there is a weakness, and expect them to win 3 from 3 quite convincingly.

Springbok squad for the Castle Lager Outgoing Tour:
Props: Thomas du Toit (Bath), Vincent Koch (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Frans Malherbe (DHL Stormers), Ox Nche (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Gerhard Steenekamp (Vodacom Bulls).
Hookers: Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears), Bongi Mbonambi (Hollywoodbets Sharks).
Locks: Eben Etzebeth (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Franco Mostert (Honda Heat), Ruan Nortje (Vodacom Bulls), RG Snyman (Leinster).
Loose forwards: Pieter-Steph du Toit (Toyota Verblitz), Siya Kolisi (captain, Hollywoodbets Sharks), Elrigh Louw (Vodacom Bulls), Kwagga Smith (Shizuoka Blue Revs), Marco van Staden (Vodacom Bulls), Jasper Wiese (Urayasu D-Rocks).
Utility forward: Jan-Hendrik Wessels (Vodacom Bulls).
Scrumhalves: Jaden Hendrikse (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Cobus Reinach (Montpellier), Grant Williams (Hollywoodbets Sharks).
Flyhalves: Manie Libbok (DHL Stormers), Handre Pollard (Leicester Tigers).
Centres: Lukhanyo Am (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Damian de Allende (Wild Knights), Andre Esterhuizen (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Jesse Kriel (Canon Eagles).
Outside backs: Kurt-Lee Arendse (Vodacom Bulls), Aphelele Fassi (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Cheslin Kolbe (Suntory Sungoliath), Willie le Roux (Vodacom Bulls), Makazole Mapimpi (Hollywoodbets Sharks), Canan Moodie (Vodacom Bulls), Damian Willemse (DHL Stormers).

Would have liked tosee Edwil van der Merwe in the squad. Nice to see Rassie taking the end of year tour serious. Lets hope they perform.

Well I'm watching the All Blacks v Japan game and I don't think you can really class this is a Teat match! Japan started brightly but it's been a glorified training run since - All Blacks throwing it around like the Harlem Globetrotters. Zero intensity in the game.

43-12 HT All Blacks

64-19 FT - scoring slowed down in the 2nd half but still very much a training game.

RDW wrote:64-19 FT - scoring slowed down in the 2nd half but still very much a training game.

I was at the game. The crowd of 60,000 was quite subdued from the start. I was sitting in the nosebleeds, and could still hear calls from the pitch at times.

It might have been a slightly different story if Warner Dearns' try had stood. Not only would it have put Japan back ahead, it was hugely entertaining watching this lanky giraffe volley the ball, and collect it to score. The TMO intervention was correct but I doubt many NZ fans would have begrudged the earlier knock-on going unnoticed. When the referee overturned it, any remaining energy was sucked out of the stadium. When NZ hit straight back with a score, it felt like the match was gone when it was still only 21-12.

BOD, Jamie Roberts, John Barclay and Danny Care.