Wimbledon Draw

First topic message reminder :

Wimbledon is just around the corner and the draw is announced in the next few minutes.
How do you see things going?

Wimbledon Mens Draw Click Here

Wimbledon Womans Draw Click Here

Well, it's not just the BBC anymore, the ATP tour is reporting it's Djoko & Fed on the same side of the draw. I think the Wimbledon blog is wrong.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2011/06/Features/Wimbledon-Draw-Announced.aspx

I concur I Y Man, it looks like we got it confirmed, at least for Nadal, Fed, Djoko & Murray.

I'm pretty happy with the draw!

Womens draw stacked in the bottom half, with both Williams sisters, Zvonereva, Jankovic, Li Na, Kuzzy, Kvitova.

GB:
Watson v Johansson, then potentially Julie Georges in R2.
Robson v Kerber, then potentially MaSha
Webley-Smith v Zakapolova
Bally v a qualifier, then Peng (Stosur potentially in R3)
Broady v Keothavong, winner to face Kvitova.

So not too bad for the British girls - avoided seeds in R1 and several with chances to advance

But there is no other news on Wimb site officially...a blog could be written incorrectly if thrown on quickly...

Nadal looks to have hardest draw so far..?

Yup, he does, which is fine by me, the draw can work out like that sometimes. I thought his draw last year until the finals was pretty straight forward.

I suppose Isner & Mahut better start now then.

I do think that at some point Raonic is going to have a big win that announces him to the world...this could be the one that does it because I see him as a future top 5 player.

not sure about Nadal having the toughest draw. He has Raonic in R3 which is tough, but Del P in R4 isn't as hard as it seems IMO (I think Murray has the tougher R4 draw, Wawrinka/Gasquet), and Berdych has been seriously out of form over the last few months.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:not sure about Nadal having the toughest draw. He has Raonic in R3 which is tough, but Del P in R4 isn't as hard as it seems IMO (I think Murray has the tougher R4 draw, Wawrinka/Gasquet), and Berdych has been seriously out of form over the last few months.

That's assuming Delpo gets to the 4th round.... Not seen his draw, but i wouldnt be surprised if he was packing his bags early tbh.

I think there's a blog error - it now says Djokovic v Baghdatis in Round 1, but I thought Baggy was seeded? Presumably that's the 3rd round pairing.

Baggy is seeded so he can't play Djokovic in R1

MfC

Del Potro has a pretty easy first couple of rounds - qualifier then the winner of Rochus v qualifier. Giles Simon in R3 should be tough though.

Reasonable chance that Berdych might lose to Mardy Fish (really the greatest name in tennis) in R4

I will conceed defeat.

looks like Murray has it tough then

QF v Roddick
SF v Nadal
F v ...hmmm not going to happen

Hmm if Murray is in Rafa's half then I would say Murray has the toughest draw out there:

R3. Cilic. Dangerous player, but not playing well at the moment, should be OK.
R4 Gasquet/Wawrinka. Probably the two most dangerous potential R4 opponents any of the top 4 could have faced.
QF. Roddick. Multiple wimbledon finalist.
SF. Nadal. World n°1, hasn't lost at Wimbledon since the 2007 final.

Tough draw

Steveo

It's a slam - to win it you'll have to beat some good players.

I don't think Roddick holds too many fears for Murray - Ok there was the SF a couple of years ago, but that was more that Roddick was on an inspired run. Look at what happened at Queens last week.

Nadal is going to be difficult to beat, but that's always true. At least Andy has the experience of having beaten him in slams (albeit on hard courts), which is more than most can say...

MfC
Remember that Stan did not play well at Queens, losing to Ward. Suggests his form might not be all that great.

Gasquet is a dangerman, but he blows so hot and cold (often within a single match) that you'd have to make Murray a strong favourite.

As above, Murray has a recent (emphatic) grass court victory over Roddick.

Not saying it isn't a moderately tough draw, but I think it could have been worse (at least to the SF)

Oh dear oh dear oh dear

Still he hasn't done it when he's had 'easier' draws, maybe this will get him focused each round and he will stroll through to the Final!

It's all up on wiki, this will clear it all up (and you can see the possible like ups:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Wimbledon_Championships_%E2%80%93_Men's_Singles

An interesting one in the early rounds is Nadal vs Hasse again in the second round (repeat of last year), that went the distance, a good one to watch next Wednesday.

dummy_half

Not so worried about Murray losing to any of these guys, but I am worried the matches could take something out of him, and he could reach the semis a little tired, which you don't want against Nadal. Of course if he plays like he did against Roddick at Queens he'll be fine

Not that I don't trust wiki or anything, but they have Mannarino at two separate spots in the draw (R1 against a qualifier, R2 against Fed AND R1 against Anderson, R2 against Djokovic)

Actually another thought, if wiki is moderately right, is that Djokovic has a tough beginning, R1 against Chardy and R2 against Anderson seems tougher than most...

lets face it the top guys are way better than the others this year.

there will be some good matches but basically in 2 weeks time we will be looking forward to

Murray v Nadal
Federer v Djokovic

and what a day that will be!

Seriously, how can Murray be in Nadals half yet again?

Statistically over the last four years hes been in Nadals half 5 more times than a fair toss of a coin would suggest.

We're in need of a streak where Murray is not in Nadals half to correct the stats.

just to mention that the official site have now changed their live commentary, and Murray is indeed in Nadal's half, for what feels like the twentieth time running at least...

Mad for Chelsea wrote:just to mention that the official site have now changed their live commentary, and Murray is indeed in Nadal's half, for what feels like the twentieth time running at least...

Just to highlight what i was talking about - i posted the info below on Wednesday - its getting ridiculous, Murray vs rafa 4* straight years at Wimdledon, 5 at AO,3 at USO. They all use the same picking method, only the FO seems to have a reasonably fair split.

* Del P replaced Rafa in draw

From wednesday
"the problem with Fed/Djoko semis, is that we have seen potential for so many of these over the years its becoming tedious for me.

E.g potential clashes by top and bottom

Wimbledon
2010: Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2009: FedDjoko; Murray /rafa (withdrew)
2008: Fed/Djoko; Murray/Rafa (QF)
2007: Fed/-; Rafa/Djoko

FO
2011:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2010:Fed/Murray; Rafa/Djoko
2009:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2008:Fed/-; Rafa/Djoko
2007:Fed/-; Rafa/Djoko

AO:
2011:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2010:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2009:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2008:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2007:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa

USO:
2010:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2009:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2008:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2007:Fed/Murray; Rafa/Djoko

It worth noting that all slams follow the 1/2 seeds opposite sides of the draw and then the 3/4 are randomised etc. So given nadal and Fed have been 1 and 2 or vice versa for years, you would statistically expect to see roughly a 50/50 split where Murray and Djoko land in either the top half or the bottom half (even where these two were lower ranked). I.e there should be an approximately equal chance of Murray or Djoko being in Federer or Nadal's half of the draw at any given slam.

Yet out of 18 slams listed. Murray and Nadal have been on collision course 13 times, as have Federer and Djoko.

Looking at Murrays chances on HC slams hes been on course to play Fed in the final 8 of 9 times, when statistically it should only have been 4-5 times. Only once has Murray been on course to meet Federer in a HC slam SF.

As i've said i think Murray would have a better chance of beating Fed in a slam SF than in a final and if he did that, then his mental approach to the final would become very positive imo.

Now Fed and Murray can only meet in the final, it would be nice if Murray were not in Nadals half, especially at the USO, just to showed a start in the balancing of the stats above."

Oh great, Andujar is down to play Nadal 2nd round again????

Seems unlikely to me, no scratch that, the odds of it happening consecutively are 1 in 64 x 1 in 64 = 1 in 4096 chance.

The draw is up on the Wimbledon site.
Ive edited the main article post with the link.

Just to end any confusion:
http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/index.html

Not too many obvious banana skins, but the following could be interesting:
Tipsy will do well to get to R3, with Dr Ivo then Clement.

Dolgopolov gets a tough opener against Forehando Gonzalez (although at least it's on grass)

Almagro v Niemenen then the winner of Isner v Mahut (if they ever finish this year)

Youzny v Monaco (again, it being on grass helps Youzny)

Soderling gets no favours with drawing Petzschner then the winner of Hewitt v Nishikori - think he'll get through, but others have easier opening matches.

Some comments from me

I think Nadal is OK with Berdy as potential QF, he is out of form currently.

Nadal R3 with Roainic, not good, Del P technically thats not good either

Kholscrieber has just had a great Halle, Fish not ideal either.

Nadals quarter seems tough to me, bar the berdy QF potential


Murray:
Cilic R3 = tough, but Cilic out of form and did withdraw from Queens, so fitness a question
gasquet/wawrinka R4 - not nice, but these two are likely to play each other first

he also has Monfils, karlovic, Tipsaravic, who i think might be a dangerous floater this wimbledon and Roddick as QF potential. Monfils i don't rate on grass, Karlovic probably won't get through, Roddick i s think may well get trounced

I think Murray has a good chance against all these to be honest. It a difficult, but manageable draw.

To start with Fed has drawn the lucky grass card for me in the form of Ferrer in the QF (how often does than happen?)

other than that Nalbandian on paper i guess might decide to play well. Other than that its only Tsonga who has a vague chance.

So really only one guy for Fed to have to work against

Feds in the SF for me.

Djoko:
tenchincally Llodra i guess is some one for Djoko to think about - other than that Baggy as R3 opponent could be competitive.

Soderling his QF clash - Sod not been on great form, but i think he can throw Djoko a good game.

Djoko should be in semis.

I think overall Nadal and Murray have the more difficult half, but you would be surprised if it were not the top 4 in the SFs.

Raonic to watch for me, early form of Djoko a question

Tom
Actually, the odds are only 64 to 1 against getting the same player in consecutive draws (in fact slightly less because of the influence of seeding - Nadal cannot be drawn in certain positions, so some of the 64 outcomes are impossible), unless you predicted it before the first draw. Nadal has to play someone in R2, so the first draw doesn't have a probability.

dummy_half wrote:Tom
Actually, the odds are only 64 to 1 against getting the same player in consecutive draws (in fact slightly less because of the influence of seeding - Nadal cannot be drawn in certain positions, so some of the 64 outcomes are impossible), unless you predicted it before the first draw. Nadal has to play someone in R2, so the first draw doesn't have a probability.

It is 1 in 64 in each slam as there are all 64 slots that Andujar could be drawn in at 49 in the world. After the 32 seeds, the rest are scattered randomly, so Andujar could play anywhere in the draw. Only one of these 64 slots has potential for a Nadal R2. Its a 1 in 4096 chance for two consecutive slams as i said.

Tom

there's an old 606 tradition of looking at the Wimbledon draw and predicting that Karlovic will beat whichever seed he's drawn against (big server on grass, should be successful). Never happens - Dr Ivo I think has lost more first round matches at Wimbledon than even Bogdanovic (although he has won a few and had one good run).

Agree the top half and particularly Nadal's quarter looks toughest, but if one player can cope with a tough draw it's Rafa.

I said last week that I thought one of the top 4 won't make the SFs, but looking at who they've drawn early on, I don't see the likely banana skin matches for any of them (then again, you wouldn't have picked Federer v Falla or Nadal v Petzschner as likely big problems - Haase perhaps a bit moer because he is a very good server), and once they are played into the tournament (especially important to Federer and Djokovic in the absence of warm up grass court tournaments), they become increasingly difficult to beat.

I suspect we'll still get one big shock somewhere (something like Djokovic losing to an in form Melzer in the QFs), but I now think all 4 of the top 4 will make the SFs

Y I Man wrote:I suppose Isner & Mahut better start now then.

From Andujar's point of view, it is less than 1 in 64 squared to get Nadal as a 2nd round opponent (would be in an entirely random draw) - actually because of the seeding, it would be a probability of 2 in 96, as there are two spots in the draw where he will get Rafa in R2 and 96 positions in which he can be drawn as an unseeded player, therefore 1 in 48 per tournament and 1 in 48 squared to get him in two consecutive slams

From Nadal's perspective of getting the same (any) player in R2 in consecutive slams is only 1 in 48, so will happen once or twice in a career on average.

i think 2007 shouldnt be counted, at least

murray not in top 4 yet

The odds of landing in the same match cannot be different from two separate player views - thats impossible.

The way i was looking at it - there are 64 matches in the first round. Only one of those will play the R1 Nadal match in R2. Andujar could be in any one of those 64 first round matches. However i appreciate that as you say Andujar is less likely to be drawn with a seed in R1 and so the chances of landing in each match are not equal - so as you say 128 -32 = 96 slots, 2 of which will have Nadal in R2, hence 1 in 48 per slam and a 1 in 48 squared for 2 consecutive slams = 1 in 2304 chance.

From Nadals point of view his position is fixed in the draw. He will not face a seed in R2, so he has to face 2 of 96 random possible opponents in R2, so a 1 in 48 chance of one of those being Andujar, hence 1 in 48 against being on a clash with Andjuar in R2 in each slam - its still the 1 in 48 squared for consecutive slams as above.

ebar86 wrote:i think 2007 shouldnt be counted, at least

murray not in top 4 yet

If you're referring to the Rafa's half post i made, its fine to include Murray in 2007 as Nadal and Fed were seeded 1 and 2 - thats the determining factor, the other players have a 50/50 chance of being in each half.

i think in one instance Nadal had Djoko and Murray in his half

I think one of the top 4 will slip up, hard to explain why but it's very rare that all top four seeds make the semis. I'd love to know when the last time was when it happened twice in the same year @ the grand slams (it already happened @ the French, so this would potentially be the second time).

Of course, it's difficult to see which one might go out, I'd say either Murray or Djokovic but I wouldn't rule out Nadal until I see how he plays. Even then, I still think him and Federer are the top two to make the semis. As Federer's draw looks reasonably straight forward, I'd say he's safe for the semis.

I agree Tom that the odds of Nadal/Murray & Federer/Djokovic being drawn on the opposite ends so consistently seems odd but I'm sure it's statistically possible! Maybe at the USO they'll be drawn differently but then again, the rankings could be significantly different if Djokovic, Federer or Murray win Wimbledon.

Tom_____ wrote:

ebar86 wrote:i think 2007 shouldnt be counted, at least

murray not in top 4 yet

If you're referring to the Rafa's half post i made, its fine to include Murray in 2007 as Nadal and Fed were seeded 1 and 2 - thats the determining factor, the other players have a 50/50 chance of being in each half.

i think in one instance Nadal had Djoko and Murray in his half

yeah,,its quite weird to see,,but i accpet it as a luck,,random enough

though i'll try to study a bit the draw (based on ranking) first

luciusmann wrote:I think one of the top 4 will slip up, hard to explain why but it's very rare that all top four seeds make the semis. I'd love to know when the last time was when it happened twice in the same year @ the grand slams (it already happened @ the French, so this would potentially be the second time).

Of course, it's difficult to see which one it might go out, I'd say either Murray or Djokovic but I wouldn't rule out Nadal until I see how he plays. Even then, I still think him and Federer are the top two to make the semis. As Federer's draw looks reasonably straight forward, I'd say he's safe for the semis.

I agree Tom that the odds of Nadal/Murray & Federer/Djokovic being drawn on the opposite ends so consistently seems odd but I'm sure it's statistically possible! Maybe at the USO they'll be drawn differently but then again, the rankings could be significantly different if Djokovic, Federer or Murray win Wimbledon.

hi Lucius, it is possible for the draws to have worked out the way they have fairly, but its kind of like when you get a run of 7 or 8 blacks at roulette, although the next number is 50/50 to be black, at some stage you will get a red streak to correct the stats. The thing with tennis is that the top 2 and 4 have already been consistently there for an extended period and time and so the likelihood of a correction before some one drops out or retires is getting lower. obviously it doesn't matter really, but i do think it might have at least been more interesting at times if the players had been drawn in a good mixture of halves. For example a lot of people would have liked to have seen more Djoko/Nadal SFs. That chance has ended for the time being.

Tom_____ wrote:It worth noting that all slams follow the 1/2 seeds opposite sides of the draw and then the 3/4 are randomised etc. So given nadal and Fed have been 1 and 2 or vice versa for years, you would statistically expect to see roughly a 50/50 split where Murray and Djoko land in either the top half or the bottom half (even where these two were lower ranked). I.e there should be an approximately equal chance of Murray or Djoko being in Federer or Nadal's half of the draw at any given slam.

Yet out of 18 slams listed. Murray and Nadal have been on collision course 13 times, as have Federer and Djoko.

You shouldn't really expect a near 50/50 split out of 18 draws, that would actually be quite unusual. Try flipping a coin 18 times, it's unlikely you'll get 9 heads and 9 tails or even 10 of one and 8 of the other. I just used a random number generator to generate either a 1 or a 2 eighteen times and I got 14 2's and 4 1's. Even further from the 50/50 split. If there had been 1000 draws and Murray had been drawn in Nadal's half 72% of the time then I might think something funny was going on. But on 18 draws it is really not surprising at all.

letigre wrote:

Tom_____ wrote:It worth noting that all slams follow the 1/2 seeds opposite sides of the draw and then the 3/4 are randomised etc. So given nadal and Fed have been 1 and 2 or vice versa for years, you would statistically expect to see roughly a 50/50 split where Murray and Djoko land in either the top half or the bottom half (even where these two were lower ranked). I.e there should be an approximately equal chance of Murray or Djoko being in Federer or Nadal's half of the draw at any given slam.

Yet out of 18 slams listed. Murray and Nadal have been on collision course 13 times, as have Federer and Djoko.

You shouldn't really expect a near 50/50 split out of 18 draws, that would actually be quite unusual. Try flipping a coin 18 times, it's unlikely you'll get 9 heads and 9 tails or even 10 of one and 8 of the other. I just used a random number generator to generate either a 1 or a 2 eighteen times and I got 14 2's and 4 1's. Even further from the 50/50 split. If there had been 1000 draws and Murray had been drawn in Nadal's half 72% of the time then I might think something funny was going on. But on 18 draws it is really not surprising at all.

I didn't say it was statistically surprising, however the consecutive nature over the last 3 years at slams off clay is very unlikely and for example the Aus open 5 years in a row has a very low chance.

Fognini is in the draw.

Don't tell socal!!

Haha, oh dear, we will be hearing a lot about the fraud that is Fognini (allegedly)!

Wimbledon
2010: Fed (2) /Djoko (3) ; Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2009: Fed (2) /Djoko (4); Murray (3) / rafa (1)
2008: Fed (1) /Djoko (3); Murray (12) /Rafa (2) (QF)


FO
2011:Fed (3) /Djoko (2); Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2010:Fed (1) /Murray (4); Rafa (2) /Djoko (3)
2009:Fed (2) /Djoko (4); Murray (3)/ Rafa (1)
2008:Fed (1)/-; Rafa (2) /Djoko (3)

AO:
2011:Fed (2) /Djoko (3); Murray (5)/ Rafa (1)
2010:Fed (1)/Djoko (3); Murray (5)/ Rafa (2)
2009:Fed (2) /Djoko; (3) Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2008:Fed (1) /Djoko (3); Murray (9)/ Rafa (2)


USO:
2010:Fed (2) /Djoko (3); Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2009:Fed (1) /Djoko (4); Murray (2)/ Rafa (3)
2008:Fed (2)/Djoko (3); Murray (6) / Rafa (1)


based on the pattern,,i think the ranking clearly affecting hows the draw
n for my opinion,,its fair enough

but u can see that 4th seed always landing on 1st seed,,and 3rd seed on the 2nd seed

The organizers obviously still prefer a Fed-Nad final..

legendkillar wrote:Fognini is in the draw.

Don't tell socal!!

"but u can see that 4th seed always landing on 1st seed,,and 3rd seed on the 2nd seed"

Except when they don't (e.g. FO 2009, AO 2008, 2010, Wimbledon 2009)
.

Tom_____ wrote:

letigre wrote:

Tom_____ wrote:It worth noting that all slams follow the 1/2 seeds opposite sides of the draw and then the 3/4 are randomised etc. So given nadal and Fed have been 1 and 2 or vice versa for years, you would statistically expect to see roughly a 50/50 split where Murray and Djoko land in either the top half or the bottom half (even where these two were lower ranked). I.e there should be an approximately equal chance of Murray or Djoko being in Federer or Nadal's half of the draw at any given slam.

Yet out of 18 slams listed. Murray and Nadal have been on collision course 13 times, as have Federer and Djoko.

You shouldn't really expect a near 50/50 split out of 18 draws, that would actually be quite unusual. Try flipping a coin 18 times, it's unlikely you'll get 9 heads and 9 tails or even 10 of one and 8 of the other. I just used a random number generator to generate either a 1 or a 2 eighteen times and I got 14 2's and 4 1's. Even further from the 50/50 split. If there had been 1000 draws and Murray had been drawn in Nadal's half 72% of the time then I might think something funny was going on. But on 18 draws it is really not surprising at all.

I didn't say it was statistically surprising, however the consecutive nature over the last 3 years at slams off clay is very unlikely and for example the Aus open 5 years in a row has a very low chance.

Being drawn in Nadal's half in the Aus open 5 years in a row is a 1 in 32 chance. I guess it's pretty low, but not that low, and it's just as likely as any other unique sequence.

letigre wrote:

Tom_____ wrote:

letigre wrote:

Tom_____ wrote:It worth noting that all slams follow the 1/2 seeds opposite sides of the draw and then the 3/4 are randomised etc. So given nadal and Fed have been 1 and 2 or vice versa for years, you would statistically expect to see roughly a 50/50 split where Murray and Djoko land in either the top half or the bottom half (even where these two were lower ranked). I.e there should be an approximately equal chance of Murray or Djoko being in Federer or Nadal's half of the draw at any given slam.

Yet out of 18 slams listed. Murray and Nadal have been on collision course 13 times, as have Federer and Djoko.

You shouldn't really expect a near 50/50 split out of 18 draws, that would actually be quite unusual. Try flipping a coin 18 times, it's unlikely you'll get 9 heads and 9 tails or even 10 of one and 8 of the other. I just used a random number generator to generate either a 1 or a 2 eighteen times and I got 14 2's and 4 1's. Even further from the 50/50 split. If there had been 1000 draws and Murray had been drawn in Nadal's half 72% of the time then I might think something funny was going on. But on 18 draws it is really not surprising at all.

I didn't say it was statistically surprising, however the consecutive nature over the last 3 years at slams off clay is very unlikely and for example the Aus open 5 years in a row has a very low chance.

Being drawn in Nadal's half in the Aus open 5 years in a row is a 1 in 32 chance. I guess it's pretty low, but not that low, and it's just as likely as any other unique sequence.

yes except the majority of these sequences (20) contain 2 or 3 times in opposite sides of the draw

ebar86 wrote:Wimbledon
2010: Fed (2) /Djoko (3) ; Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2009: Fed (2) /Djoko (4); Murray (3) / rafa (1)
2008: Fed (1) /Djoko (3); Murray (12) /Rafa (2) (QF)


FO
2011:Fed (3) /Djoko (2); Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2010:Fed (1) /Murray (4); Rafa (2) /Djoko (3)
2009:Fed (2) /Djoko (4); Murray (3)/ Rafa (1)
2008:Fed (1)/-; Rafa (2) /Djoko (3)

AO:
2011:Fed (2) /Djoko (3); Murray (5)/ Rafa (1)
2010:Fed (1)/Djoko (3); Murray (5)/ Rafa (2)
2009:Fed (2) /Djoko; (3) Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2008:Fed (1) /Djoko (3); Murray (9)/ Rafa (2)


USO:
2010:Fed (2) /Djoko (3); Murray (4)/ Rafa (1)
2009:Fed (1) /Djoko (4); Murray (2)/ Rafa (3)
2008:Fed (2)/Djoko (3); Murray (6) / Rafa (1)


based on the pattern,,i think the ranking clearly affecting hows the draw
n for my opinion,,its fair enough

but u can see that 4th seed always landing on 1st seed,,and 3rd seed on the 2nd seed

Theres no reason for 4 to land with 1 rather than 3 to land with one, as after the first two seeds, seeds 3 and 4 have lots drawn to see where they fall. It equally likely that seeds 5,6,7,8 will have lots drawn in any particular quarter with 1,2,3,4 - so an and so forth down the seedings.