Which set of fans is most delusional about their team's prospects at the World Cup this autumn?

I thought I'd start by looking at the results of a recent poll on this site about who would win the World Cup:
New Zealand 46%
South Africa 3%
Australia 16%
England 8%
Wales 4%
Scotland 3%
France 3%
Ireland 9%
Italy 0%
Argentina 1%
Total votes cast: 132

Then I thought I'd better take account of representation of posters on this site cos I thought that might have influenced the first poll:
New Zealand 3%
Australia 6%
South Africa 3%
Ireland 30%
England 20%
France 1%
Wales 21%
Argentina 0%
Scotland 7%
Fiji 0%
Samoa 1%
Italy 0%
Japan 0%
Georgia 0%
Canada 0%
Tonga 0%
United States 1%
Romania 2%
Russia 0%
Portugal 0%
Total votes cast : 88

Then I thought that maybe we should take into account current IRB rankings:
1 NEW ZEALAND 93.19
2 AUSTRALIA 87.45
3 SOUTH AFRICA 86.44
4 IRELAND 82.51
5 ENGLAND 82.48
6 FRANCE 82.06
7 WALES 79.55
8 ARGENTINA 78.97
9 SCOTLAND 77.35
10 FIJI 74.05
11 SAMOA 74.02
12 ITALY 73.54
13 JAPAN 71.45
14 GEORGIA 70.30
15 CANADA 69.78
16 TONGA 68.90
17 USA 66.78
18 ROMANIA 65.57
19 RUSSIA 61.93
20 NAMIBIA 61.43

And then lastly I thought it was worth looking at the most likely match-ups from the quarter finals onwards:
QFs:
NZ vs Argentina/Scotland
France vs England
Australia vs Wales
Ireland vs South Africa
SFs:
England/France vs Australia
NZ vs South Africa
F:
? vs ?

So, from the results of the first poll, the All Blacks are perhaps rightly the overwhelming favourites, with Australia in second. Perhaps the surprise package of that poll was the Irish in 3rd, with South Africa languishing - always dangerous to right off the Boks. However maybe poll 2 about representation gives us a clue, as the Irish are the most heavily represented nation on here in that poll, closely followed by the English. Looking at the world rankings, there appears to be 3 distinct groups in the top 9 countries - a top tier of the big SH names, a middle tier of arguably the strongest NH countries, and a lower tier of Wales, Argentina and Scotland. I suspect that it is my likely match-ups for the QFs which will cause the most controversy tho - I know that many Irish fans believe that they have the beating of Australia on neutral territory, and hence they believe that they can top their group and face NH oppo on a track to the final, where, lets be honest, anything can happen. Perhaps England, Wales and Scotland have the toughest groups, in that at least 2 of their group matches represent potential banana skins - Argentina & Scotland for England, South Africa & Samoa for Wales, Argentina & England for Scotland.

So given all the above complications, which set of fans have lost the plot so far when it comes to realistically assessing their team's chances at the World Cup?

To be honest the finger has to point at us Asbo!

I can't think of any of our Scottish poster who think we'll win the World Cup yet someone voted for us!





But they will not get my Vote to be honest. In truth I think I'll have to vote for Ireland, It seems a few of their Fans genuinly believe they have a decent chance at this world cup. It's nice to have faith in your team but I just cant see past NZ or the Boks winning this WC.

I think Ireland could beat Australia, I would say it wouldn't be that unlikely either and also we could beat the Boks too which also isn't that unlikely. Can't see us getting past the semi final though I don't think.

Ps: Very good analysis and statistics

I voted England. I think their team is nowhere near as good as many think although they have a favourable draw and could feasibly make the final with a bit of luck.

I think in reality though its probably us Irish. Lets face it our record against the SH in the SH is pretty abysmal but hey theres a 1st time for everything . Anything other than a QF is wishful thinking.

I went for the Irish fans. Never ones to underrate their players or prospects!

The Welsh seem unusually down on their chances this time round, and I think the walloping given to England by Ireland at the end of the 6 Nations has given the Twickers faithful a dose of harsh reality.

I haven't seen anyone being delusional on here.

I haven't seen anyone who backs Ireland saying anything more than we can get a semi if thing go really well (oh-err!). I think that's a realistic goal for us; to beat Australia in the pool stages and would set us up for a winnable game against Samoa or Wales. Similarly, for any previous World Cup winner (NZ, Aus, SA, Eng) winning the competition MUST be the goal.

Given this is a World Cup and anything can happen once we reach the last eight (check 2007) I wouldn't say anything is impossible.

I honestly believe there are seven or eight teams who are capable of winning this World Cup even if it's just a 1 in a million chance. I'd say that Ireland, Argentina, Wales and France are very much rank outsiders and the four I listed above are the very strong favourites but you never do know when it comes to a Cup competition. Similarly I can imagine a scenario where Ireland, Wales and Argentina don't even make it out of their group.

If an Argentina fan had come on the old 606 in the summer of 2007 and boasted that they would do better than New Zealand he probably would have been laughed off the boards.

Nothing is impossible. Except Scotland winning the thing. Obviously

I think we should be aiming for the Semi's to be honest. That should be our goal and i don't think it's unrealistic but that's just my opinion. i voted Wales because I have a feeling they won't get out of their pool again

I've voted Ireland. Think all the talk I've read on the boards about them beating Australia in the group stages is v unrealistic, espescially after their 6N's campaign. One good performance wouldn't give me a whole lot of confidence. I reckon QF at best for them, although I'll be happy to be proved wrong, as long as it isn't at Wales' expense

Why is beating Australia OR S.Africa unrealistic?

Well, the English have taken topping the group as a given- which it isnt. I think the three teams are pretty evenly matched.

THey reckon they have the right to get to the final because they have a good record at world cups. This is completely irrational.

Most of their fans reckon they'll be beaten by the Blacks in the final. I can tell you that if they meet France in the semi- its bye bye chariot.

Ireland are 50% likely to go out in the quarters, 25% likely to get to the semis and 25% likely to go out in the pool stages.

Thats the way I see it...

Yet another article designed to bash the English, of course we're confident we've reached the last two finals and in 2007 we were awful, the team have a lot to learn but the draw is favourable, Argentina aren't as strong as 2007 and to be honest I'm more worried about Scotland as you just don't know what they'll do?

I voted for Irelands golden generation!

Here are what I believe are realistic targets for each major nation;

New Zealand; WINNERS
South Africa; WINNERS
Australia; WINNERS
England; WINNERS
Ireland; Semi-final
France; Semi-final
Wales; Semi-final
Argentina; Semi-final
Scotland; Quarter-final
Italy; Quarter-final
Samoa; Quarter-final
Fiji- Quarter-final

Obviously the nature of sport is that not everyone can achieve their targets. Everybody wants to be the Champion but there can only be one. But that is what I think each nation should be targeting and if the fans are right to expect that of them; albeit not to be too disappointed if they are thwarted from reaching their goals by a better team. Sport is about ambition after all.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Why is beating Australia OR S.Africa unrealistic?

I perhaps should have added, beating them outside of Ireland. Playing them at home and I would have Ireland down as being more of a favourite to win them.

I watched Argentina play against the French Baabaa's twice recently and they looked very good

Notch surely we shouldn't target for the semi because what happens when we get there.

Real interesting question As,

Thoughts here in the office are if - and this is a big 'if' - we consider past performances in the RWC as an indicator, it could change how people feel. So, my comments are only about past performances, some of which is relevent, and naturally some is not. But for fun:

The All Blacks go into each/most RWCs as favourites but have been upset along the way and have failed to win since the first one. Does that make their supporters over-confident? Or are they simply nervous by now?

The Springboks, usually play well, are never spactucalr and can grind teams down, as they had in 1995 and 2007. Should they be confident?

The Wallabies can play poorly before the RWC, then raise their game at the tournament. In 2003 the ABs put 50 points on them a few months before the RWC, then lost to them in the semis. Should the Wallaby supporters be therefore confident?

England can play poorly or well, and still do well in the RWC. In 2007, by all accounts a middling England team (being piolite here) made it to the final, and were in spitting distance of the Boks the whole time. The better team won, but it shows England can raise their game in the RWC. Should England supporters be confident, then?

Wales. Well their RWC history is not too good. Can't see the confidence based upon past history. On current form, I can absolutely see optimism, but confidence?

Ireland had probably their worst RWC in 2007. Based upon the past, are their supporters over-confident now? Thier personnel leading up to RWC 2011 look strong, but history........

Scotland. No one expects them to do well. But they can raise their game. Since no one expects too much, no one is over-confident. But should they be quietly confident?

France. Well, who really knows? They will do well, pooly or something in the middle. I am 100% confident they can do any of the above with aplomb. So I am confident.........

Fiji - Well they play Wales (sorry dudes, couldn't help myself).............

BATH_BTGOG wrote:Yet another article designed to bash the English, of course we're confident we've reached the last two finals and in 2007 we were awful, the team have a lot to learn but the draw is favourable, Argentina aren't as strong as 2007 and to be honest I'm more worried about Scotland as you just don't know what they'll do?

I voted for Irelands golden generation!

Yes, eveyone is against England.

Well it's not in Australia or S.Africa either. I expect us to get to the quarter finals though I know we may not. I want us to get to the semi's (and semi expect it too) but I am more dubious of that.

Notch wrote:Here are what I believe are realistic targets for each major nation;

New Zealand; WINNERS
South Africa; WINNERS
Australia; WINNERS
England; WINNERS
Ireland; Semi-final
France; Semi-final
Wales; Semi-final
Argentina; Semi-final
Scotland; Quarter-final
Italy; Quarter-final
Samoa; Quarter-final
Fiji- Quarter-final

Obviously the nature of sport is that not everyone can achieve their targets. Everybody wants to be the Champion but there can only be one. But that is what I think each nation should be targeting and if the fans are right to expect that of them; albeit not to be too disappointed if they are thwarted from reaching their goals by a better team. Sport is about ambition after all.

Notch, after the paddling England took in Dublin, again, for the 7th time in 8 games, can you honestly say that there is any hope of England winning the WC??

Not a chance in the world.

red_stag wrote:Notch surely we shouldn't target for the semi because what happens when we get there.

Well I would expect us to take each game as it comes if we do. Once you meet your targets, you revise them and go on.

France should have designs on winning the thing too. They can beat anyone when they turn it on. Backing it up is their biggest problem. Oh and Lievremont.

Notch wrote:

red_stag wrote:Notch surely we shouldn't target for the semi because what happens when we get there.

Well I would expect us to take each game as it comes if we do. Once you meet your targets, you revise them and go on.

Couldn't agree more. You have to keep you feet on the ground and your head screwed on.

rugbydreamer wrote:I've voted Ireland. Think all the talk I've read on the boards about them beating Australia in the group stages is v unrealistic, espescially after their 6N's campaign. One good performance wouldn't give me a whole lot of confidence. I reckon QF at best for them, although I'll be happy to be proved wrong, as long as it isn't at Wales' expense

Thats a joke of statement. I demant to talk to a global moderator

Notch wrote:

red_stag wrote:Notch surely we shouldn't target for the semi because what happens when we get there.

Well I would expect us to take each game as it comes if we do. Once you meet your targets, you revise them and go on.

+1. Last time we got ahead of ourselves. Apparantly Horgan went bananas at the management because the itenary didn't include the SF and Final!

Boyne wrote:

Notch wrote:Here are what I believe are realistic targets for each major nation;

New Zealand; WINNERS
South Africa; WINNERS
Australia; WINNERS
England; WINNERS
Ireland; Semi-final
France; Semi-final
Wales; Semi-final
Argentina; Semi-final
Scotland; Quarter-final
Italy; Quarter-final
Samoa; Quarter-final
Fiji- Quarter-final

Obviously the nature of sport is that not everyone can achieve their targets. Everybody wants to be the Champion but there can only be one. But that is what I think each nation should be targeting and if the fans are right to expect that of them; albeit not to be too disappointed if they are thwarted from reaching their goals by a better team. Sport is about ambition after all.

Notch, after the paddling England took in Dublin, again, for the 7th time in 8 games, can you honestly say that there is any hope of England winning the WC??

Not a chance in the world.

Of course there is, they have a relatively kind group and if they win it they'll probably meet France in the quarter-final and avoid NZ until the Final. Once you get into the semi-finals, it's a different kind of rugby and form goes out the window. They have the best chance of any NH nation in my opinion, I also believe they are currently the best NH nation.

Obviously we could all say 'New Zealand will win' and go on with our lives, and we'd probably be right, but no great against-all-odds sporting success story has ever started with a coach/captain saying 'I know the odds are against us, and no-one expects us to win... and therefore we don't stand a chance so just try and keep the score down'. I hate when fans get all negative about their teams chances.

If I was an England fan I would be asking that the team target a third consecutive final for my side. Nothing wrong with ambition.

no one seems to be factoring in the french. What if they do what they typically do against NZ. That would certainly make things interesting

caoimhincentre wrote:

rugbydreamer wrote:I've voted Ireland. Think all the talk I've read on the boards about them beating Australia in the group stages is v unrealistic, espescially after their 6N's campaign. One good performance wouldn't give me a whole lot of confidence. I reckon QF at best for them, although I'll be happy to be proved wrong, as long as it isn't at Wales' expense

Thats a joke of statement. I demant to talk to a global moderator

they are always happy to receive a PM. Fernando is online as I type....

Pete - true SA and Aus won't be playing at home either, but they are much more used to playing in NZ then Ireland are. I don't mean to knock Ireland down here, just from what I've seen from their international team this season I just can't see them getting further then the QF. Of course, my opinion could change after the warm up games, will have to wait to see how they perform in them first

Boyne wrote:Notch, after the paddling England took in Dublin, again, for the 7th time in 8 games, can you honestly say that there is any hope of England winning the WC??

Not a chance in the world.

Without wanting to answer for Notch (I'll answer for me instead)...

England might have been well beaten by Ireland in the 6Ns this year but they do know how to beat France and Australia in the World Cup away from home. Pretty useful considering the potential run-in. It's a pretty tough group for England, sure but I would still expect us to top it. Maybe I'm just being arrogant

Being beaten by Ireland doesn't mean you can't win the World Cup though. Or am I missing something?

I'd be disappointed if England didn't make the final. Maybe that's deluded or maybe that's having faith in my side and hoping they do well. I'd be disappointed if they didn't win the thing but realistic that if we faced NZ in the final it might be a tad tricky.

Newsflash: Dreamer (and by default 606 as a website) is anti Ireland.

rugbydreamer wrote:

caoimhincentre wrote:

rugbydreamer wrote:I've voted Ireland. Think all the talk I've read on the boards about them beating Australia in the group stages is v unrealistic, espescially after their 6N's campaign. One good performance wouldn't give me a whole lot of confidence. I reckon QF at best for them, although I'll be happy to be proved wrong, as long as it isn't at Wales' expense

Thats a joke of statement. I demant to talk to a global moderator

they are always happy to receive a PM. Fernando is online as I type....

Pete - true SA and Aus won't be playing at home either, but they are much more used to playing in NZ then Ireland are. I don't mean to knock Ireland down here, just from what I've seen from their international team this season I just can't see them getting further then the QF. Of course, my opinion could change after the warm up games, will have to wait to see how they perform in them first

I think one thing we have learn (us irish) form before the wc matters feck all. I would imagine it will be the same for most teams.

". It's a pretty tough group for England, sure but I would still expect us to top it. Maybe I'm just being arrogant "

You have 100% the easiest group ossible with the easiest run in ever. Being beaten by Ireland doesnt mean you cant win the WC. But you werent just beaten. You were hockied.

And just because England got to the final 4 years ago with an entirely different team, playing against entirely different team, does not mean you will do it this time.

And I wouldnt call it arrogance. I'd call it stupidity.

True we do have to wait til then and sorry dreamer I'm not trying to belittle your opinion.

Interesting one here, do you think Australia could lose to a team other than Ireland in the pool stages?? Italy, USA, Russia?

I don't think those games will matter dreamer. I don't even think the early group games will matter, assuming teams do enough not to get knocked out.

It's all about peaking at the right time. Look at England in 2007.

Boyne wrote:". It's a pretty tough group for England, sure but I would still expect us to top it. Maybe I'm just being arrogant "

You have 100% the easiest group ossible with the easiest run in ever. Being beaten by Ireland doesnt mean you cant win the WC. But you werent just beaten. You were hockied.

And just because England got to the final 4 years ago with an entirely different team, playing against entirely different team, does not mean you will do it this time.

And I wouldnt call it arrogance. I'd call it stupidity.

If anyone is being arrogant and stupid here, Boyne...

And I say that as a passionate Irish fan and a guy who would rather almost any other nation than England won the prize!

.......England beat the mighty Scots by less than a score (a fwd pass) at home in the 6 nations... but England fans are coq sure of topping the group.

Cant understand it.

Whatever Notch.

Boyne wrote:Whatever Notch.

Boom notch. back in your box!!!!

Is Boyne always this easy to get on with?

Can't see why people are voting for Wales, I think every Welsh fan on here has dismissed our chances and feel we'd be lucky to get out of the group stages, I can only think that other country's fans think we have a very good chance of winning.

yeah I know form might matter little going into the world cup, but that's honestly what I think Ireland can achieve. Will it make you all feel better that I feel more optimistic for you guys then I do for my own team?

caoimhincentre wrote:

Boyne wrote:Whatever Notch.

Boom notch. back in your box!!!!

Well that's me told then

rugbydreamer wrote:yeah I know form might matter little going into the world cup, but that's honestly what I think Ireland can achieve. Will it make you all feel better that I feel more optimistic for you guys then I do for my own team?

Maybe a little. But not so much so that we get big heads

I'm with Turkster - harsh to vote for Wales. I've never seen so much negativity from Welsh fans before a tournament. Certainly the ones on here seem pretty gloomy, probably because they have such a brutal group to get through, and so many key players off form.

I should add that this is very much against form, and typically Welsh fans are usually pretty quick to tell you about Welsh players you've barely heard of attaining the "World Class" hallmark, but this time round them seem cowed.

As for the Irish, modesty doesn't come easy in my experience, and the likes of Sexton (dropped during the 6 Nations for his failure to manage games), Ross (dismantled in the first half of the HC final) and Felix Jones (?) are now ready to walk on water.

Delusional is probably slightly strong, but in terms of overrating their sides prospects, I'm afraid Ireland have to get my vote.

I don't see too many people being unrealistic about their side's chances.

Pretty much everyone agrees the ABs will be the favourites going in and will be the side to beat - on paper a side and squad with few weaknesses and with home advantage. Other than possible questions over strength in depth at 9 and 10, the only other real issue for them is whether they can handle the pressure and weight of expectations of their home crowd and media, especially given that they have been favourites before and failed to deliver.

The Boks are inveitably going to be a tough side, but will have to get past the ABs in the semi final and still have enough left for the final. Probably the second most likely winners.

Australia are perhaps the best 'flair' side, but they lack power up front and seem to struggle a little to string together top quality performances. Look to me like a side capable of playing really well when it all clicks, but would need it to be on the day of the final if they are to have a chance.

England have the advantage in being in the group without a Tri-Nations side, so have a strong chance of winning the group. We do though need to have the sort of form we showed against Aus in the autumn and Italy in the 6Ns if we are to challenge strongly. The way the draw pans out, we do have a realistic chance (about 1 in 4 I reckon) of making the final. However, the ABs at home, in the final, will almost certainly be too much.

Wales and Ireland would do themselves a big favour if they can beat their Tri-Nations opponents in the group games - would be a big achievement but is possible, especially for the Irish if they can find the same level of performance as they did against England. If they manage that, it changes the whole complexion of the draw and could allow a surprise semi-final or even final appearance.

One thing I agree with Boyne - past RWC performance has very little relevance to how teams will perform this year. The only possible exception to that statement is the All Blacks, who (the rest of us must hope) may be encumbered by the pressure of expectations and past failures.

its a world cup so anything can happen, to be honest most welsh fans seem pretty pesimistic but we will all think we cna win it this time when we actually get to the WC in august.

i think england fans are a bit over optimistc atm, they have a good team no doubt and won the six nations with ease no real competition and beat Aus, however when it came to SA they were no where to be seen, and when the pressure was on against ireland they couldnt handle it, i think unfortunately there is alot of reason for england fans to be optimistic however i think if they can win any world cup it will be the one in england in 4 years time

Welshy

I think as an England fan I'd be a lot more optimistic if our team had had another couple of years together - we have some potentially great younger players and a good nucleus of experience, but we haven't yet got that stubornness that the 2003 side developed that said no matter how we play or how the opposition play, we will not be beaten. At the moment we are capable of putting in really good performances, but then following up with a mediocre one then a weak one and as such are losing games.

I actually suspect 2015 is a bit far away, and that we might have a few over-the-hill guys by then.
As for the other home nations, I think most of the fans are viewing this in the hope of a good performance rather than in the expectation of a major challenge.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:I thought I'd start by looking at the results of a recent poll on this site about who would win the World Cup:
New Zealand 46%
South Africa 3%

Then I thought I'd better take account of representation of posters on this site cos I thought that might have influenced the first poll:
New Zealand 3%
Australia 6%
Total votes cast : 88

Then I thought that maybe we should take into account current IRB rankings:
1 NEW ZEALAND 93.19
20 NAMIBIA 61.43

And then lastly I thought it was worth looking at the most likely match-ups from the quarter finals onwards:
QFs:

You missed the most important factor! which referees will be drawn for which games.

I think Welsh fans are worried to be honest, with Samoa and Fiji in our pool we have a Bannana for each foot!
Though we have only ever lost to Fiji and Samoa because we have got into a loose game of 15 man sevens against them. and as Wales don't play expansive rugby anymore I can't see us doing that.

So what your saying Alyn is that Gatland is a genius