Which set of fans is most delusional about their team's prospects at the World Cup this autumn?

First topic message reminder :

I thought I'd start by looking at the results of a recent poll on this site about who would win the World Cup:
New Zealand 46%
South Africa 3%
Australia 16%
England 8%
Wales 4%
Scotland 3%
France 3%
Ireland 9%
Italy 0%
Argentina 1%
Total votes cast: 132

Then I thought I'd better take account of representation of posters on this site cos I thought that might have influenced the first poll:
New Zealand 3%
Australia 6%
South Africa 3%
Ireland 30%
England 20%
France 1%
Wales 21%
Argentina 0%
Scotland 7%
Fiji 0%
Samoa 1%
Italy 0%
Japan 0%
Georgia 0%
Canada 0%
Tonga 0%
United States 1%
Romania 2%
Russia 0%
Portugal 0%
Total votes cast : 88

Then I thought that maybe we should take into account current IRB rankings:
1 NEW ZEALAND 93.19
2 AUSTRALIA 87.45
3 SOUTH AFRICA 86.44
4 IRELAND 82.51
5 ENGLAND 82.48
6 FRANCE 82.06
7 WALES 79.55
8 ARGENTINA 78.97
9 SCOTLAND 77.35
10 FIJI 74.05
11 SAMOA 74.02
12 ITALY 73.54
13 JAPAN 71.45
14 GEORGIA 70.30
15 CANADA 69.78
16 TONGA 68.90
17 USA 66.78
18 ROMANIA 65.57
19 RUSSIA 61.93
20 NAMIBIA 61.43

And then lastly I thought it was worth looking at the most likely match-ups from the quarter finals onwards:
QFs:
NZ vs Argentina/Scotland
France vs England
Australia vs Wales
Ireland vs South Africa
SFs:
England/France vs Australia
NZ vs South Africa
F:
? vs ?

So, from the results of the first poll, the All Blacks are perhaps rightly the overwhelming favourites, with Australia in second. Perhaps the surprise package of that poll was the Irish in 3rd, with South Africa languishing - always dangerous to right off the Boks. However maybe poll 2 about representation gives us a clue, as the Irish are the most heavily represented nation on here in that poll, closely followed by the English. Looking at the world rankings, there appears to be 3 distinct groups in the top 9 countries - a top tier of the big SH names, a middle tier of arguably the strongest NH countries, and a lower tier of Wales, Argentina and Scotland. I suspect that it is my likely match-ups for the QFs which will cause the most controversy tho - I know that many Irish fans believe that they have the beating of Australia on neutral territory, and hence they believe that they can top their group and face NH oppo on a track to the final, where, lets be honest, anything can happen. Perhaps England, Wales and Scotland have the toughest groups, in that at least 2 of their group matches represent potential banana skins - Argentina & Scotland for England, South Africa & Samoa for Wales, Argentina & England for Scotland.

So given all the above complications, which set of fans have lost the plot so far when it comes to realistically assessing their team's chances at the World Cup?

I have a sneeky feeling that Ireland could well surpass our and their expectations and become the Northern Hemisphere nation that makes the biggest dent in the Southern Hemisphere dominance in the competition in 2011.

mckay1402 wrote:I'm amazed that Wales have so many votes. I haven't seen too many people on here talking Wales up. If anything most of us think we're in for a real struggle just to make the knockouts...

If we continue our six nations form we could finish second bottom...

Agreed, not many Welsh fans see Wales progressing past the Quarter finals let alone the team winning the world cup.

I think we will struggle to qualify from our group, there are some tough customers in there and we really need to be at our best to get to the quarters, something we haven't demonstrated in three years.

A bit late for Robbie Deans to be saying THIS year the focus is on our tight 5. This problem has been round since the end of the 1999 side really, and with 2 othe rmanagers befor ehim departing due a lot to the powder puff front row, I was hoping that he reconized that problem a couple of years ago and had started dragging some good ole NT outbacker or some loggers from the Cape into rugby training camps and training them to be front 5 players!!!

We have one good pack, any injuries or out of form player on any one of them we're sunk.

Even if we do somehow manage to get out of our group we'll have so many injuries that we'll have to field a third string side in the quarters...neither Fiji or Samoa are known for their soft tackling...

mckay1402 wrote:Even if we do somehow manage to get out of our group we'll have so many injuries that we'll have to field a third string side in the quarters...neither Fiji or Samoa are known for their soft tackling...

Its a tough sport and they are some of the toughest to play against, at least we don't have the potential of meeting Tonga or Canada, also famed for the rough stuff in the later rounds should we survive..

We get someone nice and easy like Australia...!

So 22 people (and counting) think the Welsh are the most delusional about their chances? I must have missed these articles proclaiming we're going to win the World Cup.

Either that, or people think we're delusional to think we'll do badly...

luckless_pedestrian wrote:So 22 people (and counting) think the Welsh are the most delusional about their chances? I must have missed these articles proclaiming we're going to win the World Cup.

Either that, or people think we're delusional to think we'll do badly...

You don't have to imagine that you're going to win the RWC to be delusional, Lucky - I could think that Scotland will reach the semis - that is probably delusional!

luckless_pedestrian wrote:So 22 people (and counting) think the Welsh are the most delusional about their chances? I must have missed these articles proclaiming we're going to win the World Cup.

Either that, or people think we're delusional to think we'll do badly...

It is a mystery?

Even so Asbo, I haven't read any posts from Welshmen claiming we're going to do really well. The general mood seems to be apprehension.

perhaps the delusions are that we're worse than we think, in which case it's a compliment...

Luckless / Mckay

I think it's just a few of my English contemporaries on a WUM reckoning you are being unduly optimistic expecting to make the QF

I think you will as long as Gatland gets the team selection right (not something he's proven that good at recently), but you are going to have some tough matches to get there.

Ha I don't even think we'll make the group stages...

Thanks for the stats Aslong... the rest of the article is pants though! It is just as delusional to play down a team's chances as talking them up.

Because I'm an Ireland supporter I voted for Ireland - they need all the support they can get.

The Great Aukster wrote:Thanks for the stats Aslong... the rest of the article is pants though! It is just as delusional to play down a team's chances as talking them up.

Because I'm an Ireland supporter I voted for Ireland - they need all the support they can get.

Reverse psychology on 606v2 - brilliant!

Are Kiwi's the most delusional? They are confident the ABs will lose again!