Will Ireland beat the Wallabies at RWC?

This will be an interesting pool game at RWC and perhaps one of the most watched. It seems some in Ireland are all excited at their prospects given their big win over England recently and they somehow reserve something special when playing Australia (just like England do). Ireland will have a tough outfit with a good backrow and mid field. Though a little inconsistent, Wallabies are showing they are in the ascendancy. With players like Beale, O'Connor, Cooper and Genia in the backs (average age around 22, but they have around 25 test caps each already) they arguably represent the most exciting backline in world rugby. But on occasions, the forwards do not turn up to do the work up front and that has lead to inconsistent results (eg England last year). However, they were the only team to beat the All Blacks last year and lost another test 22-23 to the All Blacks last year as well. Half the forward pack didn't play last year in the tests so they should be stonger there. They are getting closer to worrying the All Blacks in a big way, but close enough? Look at the Super Rugby form in 2011 - Genia and Cooper are running riot leaving Queensland Reds as minor premiers having beaten all comers from NZ and SA this year.

But before then are the pool games. Will Ireland upset the Wallabies, or should the question be "Can they ?"

Of course they can. Will they? We'll have to wait an see. I'd probably have Australia as favourites as it's out there. At home it would be Ireland.

I hope that Australia win to be honest. I'd have lot more confidence playing Australia in the semi than Ireland. Although if England fail to top their group before Ireland play Australia I'd want Ireland to win.

Is feidir linn, as Obama said. We have a pack who should be able to live with the Aussies at the breakdown(Pocock will be a huge threat but I think we can deal with him). Our backline can cause them problems as it is largely the Leinster HC winning backline with some improvements. The Aussies could well win the whole thing, and I have tipped them to do so. I don't think we will beat them but we certainly have the ability to beat them.

Ireland will have a stronger scrum and arguably a better line out. If their set piece clicks then yes Ireland can beat Australia.

IF is a big word when used in this context however, and that goes double in the RWC

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:Ireland will have a stronger scrum and arguably a better line out. If their set piece clicks then yes Ireland can beat Australia.

IF is a big word when used in this context however, and that goes double in the RWC

f Australia keep their best front row injury free for the Ireland clash, then they will hold their own. Their line out is not bad at all.

I think Ireland are definitely capable of beating Australia, however I think if Australia perform to their best Ireland they'll probabaly be too good.

Ireland have to retain the ball and frustrate Australia who certainly won't want to be defending for long periods and Ireland certainly have the firepower to hurt them.

If Ireland make poor discisions and cough up cheap posession then Australia will tear them apart.

I really think Ireland can realistically deal with any other team on equal terms, they are are a good side who have had consistency for a long time.

biltongbek wrote:

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:Ireland will have a stronger scrum and arguably a better line out. If their set piece clicks then yes Ireland can beat Australia.

IF is a big word when used in this context however, and that goes double in the RWC

f Australia keep their best front row injury free for the Ireland clash, then they will hold their own. Their line out is not bad at all.

Agree with biltongbek - I think the Irish scrummage had one very good day out in the 6Ns (England), 3 mediocre, and one poor performance (Italy), an injury-free Australia could easily hold their own in the scrum. The Aussie lineout hasn't been a particular weakness has it, unless I've missed something? Against that the POC/DOC combo isn't quite as strong as it once was.

Could go either way, head tells me narrow Wallaby win, heart hoping for Ireland

Should be a close game. Feel we can shade it if we get everything right but start as underdogs.

I think one issue for both teams is that they lack strength in depth in the tight 5 - both have competent to good first choice players, but one or two absences really weakens the team. Therefore, whichever side goes in with closest to their first choice lineup will have a considerable advantage.

I'd still make Australia favourites, and reckon it's maybe an 80/20 game if both sides are at full strength, although unlikely that the score will be a blow-out.

I think everyone in Ireland would agree, If you were to forced to put your house on it you would go for Australia.

However Ireland are not there to make up the numbers and Australia will not be taking them lightly.

All in all, will Ireland win- I don't think so.
Could Ireland win-I wouldn't be overly surprised if they did

I wouldn't put our scrum and lineout up on a pedastal as an area of particular strength over the Aussies. We certainly could get a serious advantage over them if their first choice aren't available, but equally, if Mike Ross gets injured we're royally screwed. Australia are definitely favourites down there but every match between the sides has been won by less than a score recently, and I don't think it will be any different in a few months. A try in the last minute to stop us getting to the semi final in 1991 and just a missed drop goal in 2003 by David Humphreys separated the sides in the past and it will be equally close in September. Like every other Irish person (I assume), if a gun was put to my head, I'd say Australia will win, but I wouldn't be surprised if my head got blown off by the gun and Ireland win.

I hope some upset happens in the group stages to make the whole thing more interesting anyway. Scotland or Argentina winning their group, France beating New Zealand, Samoa beating Wales or even, dare I say it, Italy upsetting ourselves, would throw a spanner in the works and make it all the more exciting.

I think this is an interesting matchup where you have a young side who are about 2 years away from becoming a great test team (each 3N usually peak around a Lions tour if my rose tinted memories are anything to go by) and an Irish side which seems to have been around for decades.

I think Australia win this game and the crucial score (probably a 7 pointer in the corner with a great conversion to boot) will come off Australia capitalising on Ireland errors while trying to force the expansive attacking part of their game. Ireland will then trade penalties before trying to force an attacking phase 1 pass too far and cough up possession in the dying moments of the game. Man... I get depressed just thinking about it.

For everything Ireland has achieved over the past 10 years, consistent wins over any SH team, isn't one of those achievements.

Its possible but if I'm being 100% honest with myself, I just see us losing.

The way I can see this game going is that we will cough up too many penalties (just like in the 6N), making us force the game and make errors which they kill us on. However IF we learn from our mistakes in discipline and the erratic selection and get both of them correct we are massively in this game. We are capable of playing like we did against England and management team's job is to get those stars to re-align again... that's the hard bit.

Going through the lessons that Ireland need to take from the season just gone by is a topic in its own right...

I've been thinking about this for ages. Thought of a few ways of negating some of their strengths and attacking their weaknesses. here is one example I came up with....

Scrum slightly to the left of centre. Hopefully get parity and would want Ross to try and get the tighthead side a bit of shove on. I'd want our number 11 (let's say earls) to come in between the scrum and Sexton at pace and take the ball from heaslip and attacking Cooper at pace. (This is part of attacking their weaknesses as Cooper can be a defensive weakness. It would also probably work better with trimble at 11 who has more power.)

This free's up our 7 and 8 and to a lesser extent 6 to go and get quick ball from the ensuing ruck as the winger will have got over the advantage line. The first aussie there would be Pocock due to his positioning but if heaslip and Wallace knew this (and that it was their job to make sure they got to that first phase ruck quickly) they should be able to get their before Pocock cos he has to go beyond the ruck and then through the gate. Also Pocock would be outnumbered due to the speed of the attack and speed of support.

This then leaves a large overlap on the openside which can be exploited. The idea is to use their weakness in defence to negate and neutrulise their strength in defence.

I'm not saying our scrum is stronger than theirs but we should gain at least parity injuries withstanding. The same excercise should be used off lineouts as to attack Cooper and draw in Pocock where we will have more men waiting to counteract him and get quick ball.

Sexton should try and bring in the likes of Healy, SOB and Wallace attacking Cooper with the support of the likes of Best, O'Callaghan and Ross to free up the ball quickly.

Yeah, if all the matches go to form in the group stages it will be awfully boring.

I hope one of the TriNations sides slips up in their group. So I'm hoping France, Ireland, Wales and Samoa bring their game.

Ideally either Wales or Ireland will win and we'll have a big crunch match between South Africa and Australia in the quarter-final. That would be ideal, even if the odds are against it.

If all the 3N teams slip up in one match in the pools, will it not just reverse the draw and have no net effect?

Yeah, that would be the case. Can't see it happening mind you. I said I hope ONE of the Tri Nations sides slips up.

In answer to the initial question - I don't think so. The fact is that if both Ireland and Australia play to their potential, then Australia win. They have greater variety and attacking skill in their backs, and assuming the two Benns are fit and functioning, I don't see Ireland getting any traction in the forwards either. I can see Pocock causing Ireland serious problems in getting quick ball.

My money would be firmly on Australia.

The result margin is between a narrow Irish win and a massive Aussie win.

red_stag wrote:The result margin is between a narrow Irish win and a massive Aussie win.

I don't agree. It could be a large Irish win (England did it). Other than that, spot on.

Perhaps, but Australia has won by much larger margins against both those sides - not lately though, so there is some work to do between now and then.

It could be an Irish win by a narrow margin but less than England's last result, or...a narrow Wallaby win (similar to 2003) up to or exceeding England's last win over us. However, nothing like 1999 or of Namibian proportions though.

Ha, I just saw Will & Kate & Billy Jean...what a mighty threesome!

Australia put 50 points past a dodgy French team who somehow managed to get a narrow win from Ireland....

Which Ireland turns up is the real question - for the sake of watching a good game come september, I hope it is the one that beat England...

On their day Irish can beat anyone - unfortunately its often not their day and they haven't.

On their day the Aussies can beat anyone - and often have.

Given how familiar the Aussies are with playing in NZ I don't give the Irish much chance. I reckon it will be about 15 points to Aus.

I think we know what the Irish team will be and the style of play they will try to impose.

Australia on the otherhand, have a lot of talent but are thus far lacking in proven combinations, particularly center pairings and the balance of the back 3. AAC, Giteau, O'Connor & Beale have popped up eveywhere from 10-15.

Let's assume that Genia and Cooper will form the half back pairing. Given that they are not the biggest or best defenders in the world its very important that Ireland go for more than parity up front and really put pressure on at scrum & breakdowns to keep these two on the back foot.

however I think tactical kicking and lineouts will determine this game, if Ireland can prevent Australia playing a running game they can carve out victory albeit by a small margin (lots of penalties from pressure at scrum and breakdown)

I think cooper will be more of a liability than people think, mckenzie is pretty clever as he pulls him back to full back in defense, they will not be able to do that in test rugby with heaslip o'brien and sexton running at him all day he could fold, not to mention they have no even half decent kickers.

Goosestepper wrote:I think we know what the Irish team will be and the style of play they will try to impose.

Australia on the otherhand, have a lot of talent but are thus far lacking in proven combinations, particularly center pairings and the balance of the back 3. AAC, Giteau, O'Connor & Beale have popped up eveywhere from 10-15.

Let's assume that Genia and Cooper will form the half back pairing. Given that they are not the biggest or best defenders in the world its very important that Ireland go for more than parity up front and really put pressure on at scrum & breakdowns to keep these two on the back foot.

however I think tactical kicking and lineouts will determine this game, if Ireland can prevent Australia playing a running game they can carve out victory albeit by a small margin (lots of penalties from pressure at scrum and breakdown)

Don't forget Australia do not always play the running game, if you look at the waratahs, they have a big set of forwards and often dominate with them before they start throwing it around.

As far as defence is concerned, Genia has never been a bad tackler, cooper since last year has made huge strides in improving his defence.

To think australia is only a one trick pony is not true, they have very intelligent players, some of them may be young and do not have bags of experience, but they are intelligent rugby players.

biltongbek don't get me wrong - I don't think Aus are a one trick Pony at all.

But I do think that in the tri nations they will suffer badly up front (unless SA and NZ send completely weakened sides) and this will determine how they play come world cup.

Both teams are evenly matched on paper IMO (we're nothing special in the tight 5 either) and a lot will depend on the style of play and who wins the collisions in the first 20 mins (sorry if that sounds terribly cliche).

Robbie deans is an intelligent coach he has a lot of talent in the backline that he needs to assemble into a unit that works, i just don't know what they're going to do up front especially as there is not much depth to cover injuries should any occiur in TN

MAybe a better question is how do Ireland beat Australia in the world cup ( no disrespect to the OP)

Goosestepper wrote:MAybe a better question is how do Ireland beat Australia in the world cup ( no disrespect to the OP)

Perhaps not concede any last gasp, last minute tries (1991) or get any last minute drop goals (iHumph)....

Pleanty of ways to do it. Oz are not NZ and are there for the taking IMO.

HammerofThunor wrote:

red_stag wrote:The result margin is between a narrow Irish win and a massive Aussie win.

I don't agree. It could be a large Irish win (England did it). Other than that, spot on.

I do agree with Stag. This Australia side will be much stronger and more motivated than the one who were beaten by England.

If Ireland do win it will be by scraping through by the seat of their pants. By contrast anything other than a perfect 80 min display from Ireland could see them put to the sword by Australia. Ireland will have to put in their best display in years just to avoid being blown away.

In some ways I think we'd be better off getting trounced then going in against SA as heavy underdogs. England showed in 2007 how they could go under the radar after a poor group display.

Agree, Ireland will have to bring a perfect game to beat Wallabies next time around. The Wallabies will put a compelling team on the park at RWC. Or, as said elsewhere, Wallabies are whistled out of the game at scrum time and at the breakdown and Ireland kick 7 - 8 penalty goals to win in a game that never gets out of second gear. Referee could play a big part. I like Ireland's chances against SA in a QF. SA very hard to beat at home but they are not the same team on the road.

Rob B wrote:Agree, Ireland will have to bring a perfect game to beat Wallabies next time around. The Wallabies will put a compelling team on the park at RWC. Or, as said elsewhere, Wallabies are whistled out of the game at scrum time and at the breakdown and Ireland kick 7 - 8 penalty goals to win in a game that never gets out of second gear. Referee could play a big part. I like Ireland's chances against SA in a QF. SA very hard to beat at home but they are not the same team on the road.

Rob here is some stat for you.

all time stats

vs Wales away 14 wins 1 loss 1 draw
vs Australia 11 wins 19 losses 1 draw
vs France 11 wins 5 losses 1 draw
vs Scotland 11 wins 5 losses
vs England 9 wins 8 losses 1 draw
vs New Zealand 9 wins 26 losses 2 draws
vs Ireland 8 wins 4 losses 1 draw
vs Argentina 7 wins 0 losses

Since professional era

vs Wales 8 wins 1 loss
vs Scotland 6 wins 2 losses
vs Argentina 5 wins 0 losses
vs England 4 wins 6 losses
vs France 4 wins 4 losses
vs australia 3 wins 15 losses 1 draw
vs ireland 3 wins 3 losses
vs New zealand 3 wins 14 losses

In world cups on neutral grounds we have only 3 losses New Zealand, Australia, England

I don't think we travel that badly, do you?

Compare it to ireland's away record.

biltongbek wrote:
vs ireland 3 wins 3 losses

I would say thats the only stat that matters and even that isn't particularly significant.

The last meeting between the two was pretty close and Ireland certainly aren't without a chance against SA although they'd be big underdogs.

biltongbek: I think SA have travelled well in World Cups. My point is at home SA are enormously difficult to overcome especially with those incredible stadiums and fanatical fans combines for a hostile atmosphere for visitors. Away from that environment, I think SA come back to the pack somewhat: they tend to struggle against ABs(who doesn't) as well as the Wallabies and the Autumn Tour saw some very close games. In NZ conditions (expected to be very wet in September) Ireland could go very close against SA given their wet weather background.

Rob I think wet weather is the last thing Ireland want against SA. In fact it was our failure to adjust our tactics in the wet in the autumn that cost us against the boks. The wet conditions will favour the bigger stronger side and that isn't us.

I was just thinking that too roddersm,

I'd be quite pleased however if it started bucketting out of the ehavens when we went to play Australia

Agreed pete. Wet conditions would be a leveller against Australia and I don't think they'd relish us pounding them around the fringes and through the midfield with our back row.

However in wet conditions the Boks would look to butcher us up front for sure.

Yeah 100% with you.

I think in games like that against Australia where the sky just decides to open up (and I hate saying this but) Kearney is a good option.

His handling and kicking could be very useful in those kinda conditions.

Also (and this is a weird one) Paddy Wallace nearly always plays well in those torential down pours. No idea why.

We will beat them. No point going into it with any other point of view.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Yeah 100% with you.

I think in games like that against Australia where the sky just decides to open up (and I hate saying this but) Kearney is a good option.

His handling and kicking could be very useful in those kinda conditions.

Also (and this is a weird one) Paddy Wallace nearly always plays well in those torential down pours. No idea why.

He brings his Ravenhill form to the table then!

I don't think there is much of a gap between Ireland and the Wallabies at the moment, so the game is a biggie for us. If the game was in Durban, or Brissy, or Italy I'd be more confident, but NZ in September is not so suitable. Beale, Cooper and joc just don't strike me as mudders, and if there is a real difference in the sides, I think it is the creativity of those three in combination with Genia.

Lots of reporting down here today about Dan Vickerman's chances of going. If he can show some form, I'd be pleased to have him there. He will be competing for the fourth lock spot.

boomeranga, who will the other locks be? Will Peter Kimlin get a look-in?

As,

He'd certainly be a bolter if he did make it. He's got Sharpe, Horwill, Mumm, Vickerman ahead of him, while Simmons and Wykes are his closest challengers and they've both had very strong seasons behind them.

Boomeranga-

Who do you reckon will get the nod at 8 and at 13?

I love the paper, rock, scissors element of the World Cup. Certain teams have a tendency to do well against certain other teams. Ireland have done more damage at home against SA and don´t have a great record against Australia though certainly better than their record against NZ. If Ireland does win, then England would be nervous about an Ireland semifinal as they´ve had the wood over them for quite some time, whereas England would go in confident against Australia. NZ in turn would be cheering on either an Irish win or an England win and praying France doesn´t make it to the final the other side of the draw!

So to answer the question, Ireland is capable of winning the match. But it´d come through similar tactics against England. Relentless, punishing forward play and making the possession count. Make no mistake, if the game gets loose, then Australia will run riot. Ireland may well score a load of points but Aussie will score a bucketload too. You can´t get into a heavyweight backline slugfest. Australia will come out best. I really rate some of the Irish backs but I do agree that Australia has the most exciting backline in world rugby at the moment. But I also agree that they can be made to suffer through some punishing forward play. Which is not to say that the Aussie pack is powderpuff but it is a potential weakness in an otherwise strong lineup.

So Ireland has to give itself the best possible shot and take it to the Aussie forwards and score points from however they can. And you´ll find us Kiwis will be right behind Ireland. That´s how much we respect Australia! Then again it might come back to bite us and Ireland score their first ever victory against NZ in the final. And the rest of the rugby world would be pretty ecstatic over that. And fair enough too.

Probably Palu (subject to injury recovery) or McCalman at 8
AAC/Ioane at 13, and one of Mitchell/Ioane/Turner, O'Connor on the wings

I really hope it's not Palu, he's a very explosive player and in comparisson McCalman seems quite tame!

I'd prefer Palu who has been massively off form and struggled with injuries. Australia have looked at their best in recent times when McCalman has played at 8 as he gives them the all important balance.

Yes kia,

The Eden Park match will heap even more pressure on the Wallabies with all of your countrymen behind the Emerald.

And as you say - Ireland is a second favourite team for a lot of people/fans in Oz and NZ. We would love to see them go all the way if our sides falter. (maybe speaking for myself there) We have a much more chance of faltering than the ABs - but it could be a case of expect the unexpected for any team that crosses their path.

Pete, funny that - I see McCalman as a tough as teak kind of character...just what we need more of up front. We'll see how 'Cliffy pulls up after Samoa? or Tri Nations but he would be first choice of course.