Will Ireland beat the Wallabies at RWC?

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This will be an interesting pool game at RWC and perhaps one of the most watched. It seems some in Ireland are all excited at their prospects given their big win over England recently and they somehow reserve something special when playing Australia (just like England do). Ireland will have a tough outfit with a good backrow and mid field. Though a little inconsistent, Wallabies are showing they are in the ascendancy. With players like Beale, O'Connor, Cooper and Genia in the backs (average age around 22, but they have around 25 test caps each already) they arguably represent the most exciting backline in world rugby. But on occasions, the forwards do not turn up to do the work up front and that has lead to inconsistent results (eg England last year). However, they were the only team to beat the All Blacks last year and lost another test 22-23 to the All Blacks last year as well. Half the forward pack didn't play last year in the tests so they should be stonger there. They are getting closer to worrying the All Blacks in a big way, but close enough? Look at the Super Rugby form in 2011 - Genia and Cooper are running riot leaving Queensland Reds as minor premiers having beaten all comers from NZ and SA this year.

But before then are the pool games. Will Ireland upset the Wallabies, or should the question be "Can they ?"

I always feel that australia need more ball carriers in the pack and if they had them they'd be a much better team, I'd happily not see Palu but I could be being naive here

That's why we need Higginbotham in the mix somewhere which complicates things for us. Maybe if Palu is injured, then Rocky at No8, Pocock at 7, Higginbotham at 6. Many people here might disagree but I'd then have Sharpe on the bench with Vickerman-Horwill as locks. Then Slipper-TPN-Robinson up front. That's probably the meanest go-forward pack we can field, imo.

Linebreaker,

I don't know about Higginbotham. I think it's too late for him at this World Cup and to be honest, he's not the type of player needed. I do really like the trio of Elsom-Pocock-McCalman.

Also, in the front row, how about Kepu at tight head. I think he has done very well there this year with the 'Tahs.

Yeah that was a safe assumption mate. Ireland are a pretty popular team and if they did go all the way to the final, they´d be everyone´s favourite except the other team´s fans and even then it could be close!

Du Preez is an example of somebody back from injury who hasn´t quite regained the heady heights he left the game before injury. Palu is another example of that.

I don´t think Oz would want wet weather for any of their games. They have too much class in their backs. SA would love to see rain. Ireland strangely have not played well in the rain in NZ. Maybe it´s because it falls upwards Down Under but they have always looked better against NZ on a dry deck. Against Australia they might do a few rain dances though.

That trio looks good too MBTGOG and Sekope Kepu would slot in well at tight head.

kia, I'm praying for a 'small, dry window' for a few hours on the day - but boy does it rain in Auckland! Raining a lot here too as I type...

ABs & SA perform well - rain, hail or shine. The Wallabies - only light rain & shine (although we're working on it!)

It´s 40 degrees here in Madrid so to be honest I´m the one really praying for rain right now.

Your poor blighter. We had an almost unbearble 10 day hot spell back in February - you know when you start dreaming of winter rain but to no avail.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Yeah that was a safe assumption mate. Ireland are a pretty popular team and if they did go all the way to the final, they´d be everyone´s favourite except the other team´s fans and even then it could be close!

Du Preez is an example of somebody back from injury who hasn´t quite regained the heady heights he left the game before injury. Palu is another example of that.

I don´t think Oz would want wet weather for any of their games. They have too much class in their backs. SA would love to see rain. Ireland strangely have not played well in the rain in NZ. Maybe it´s because it falls upwards Down Under but they have always looked better against NZ on a dry deck. Against Australia they might do a few rain dances though.

Cheers buddy

Problem with some of the forwards is they do not look fit. TPN at hooker, despite being injured 178 times this year, still looked unfit when he did play. Palu virtually whole season out. Elsom whole season out. Kepu serious injury. If these guys do manage to get back on the field query how long they will last.

Don't know what they will do with no.8. Deans will not play Elsom at no.8 and he doesn't like Higginbotham. McCalman - can't see him being picked at all - he's a mid weeker.

Quite a few people have stated that they feel the scrum is an area that Ireland should target, personally I think that would be a misdirection of attention. Australia's first choice front row is more than capable, and even when they were fielding a second string and being dominated there they still beat most sides. France had Australia on the ropes at the scrum last Autumn, even got a penalty try, it was their only try, Australia ran in 7. I feel Ireland would be better off getting their very able front row to focus on their work in the loose.

Apologies for not replying AS and Pete. I went to bed.

I agree with the answers given though. Two Dads will play at 13, and Palu at 8 if he is fit. Most likely mcCalman or higginbum off the bench.

Regarding locks, I think Rob Simmons would have taken the third spot, with those mentioned competing for the fourth spot. Kimlin is not in the picture as far as other supporters think, and hopefully neither is Dean Mumm. Mumm has tried to copy Ritchie's Cloak of invisibility, but has just ended up being invisible.

Unless something drastic happens in the Summer Tests and Kidney wakes up. No. They are 2 years ahead of us. Ah well, next time.

On props, I think kepu is in with a great shout and Alexander needs a good tri-nations to ensure his spot.

And you right Rob. Tpn, Palu and Elsom are a concern. We really need them going to be in with a show. With horwill, who has made a strong return this year, they are the players which can cause some physical damage for us.

Quite a few people have stated that they feel the scrum is an area that Ireland should target, personally I think that would be a misdirection of attention. Australia's first choice front row is more than capable,

I agree. Of course Ireland could win, but I don't think they will. I reckon they have a better chance of beating Sth Africa.

potential starting 15 head to head - would be interesting to hear thoughts opinions on this:

1 Cian Healy v Robinson
2 Rory Best v Polota-Nau
3 Ross v B Alexander?
4 POC v Horwill
5 DOC v Sharpe
6 SOB v Elsom
7 D Wallace v Pocock
8 Heaslip v Palu


9 Genia v Reddan
10 Q Cooper v Sexy
12 Gits v Darcy
13 O'Connor V BOD

11 D Mitchell v Bowe
14 Ioane v Earls
15 Beale v Kearney


Not saying these are my team preferences but how do you see this player v player

I don't know enough about the Irish to come out with anything unbiased, but in order to contribute:

1. Robinson - (apparently) a good enough scrummager, as opposed to running, kicking or somersaults.
2. TPN / Moore - both good players. Possibly our strongest specialist position when both are fit. 3rd hooker is a big step down.
3. Slipper (running, kicking) / Kepu (kicking, running) / Alexander (somersaults)
4. Horwill - pretty good. Not in the elite yet internationally, but adds a bit of agression for us and is a leader.
5. Sharpe - Important player for us. Very strong lineout operator, but also blamed for the running / kicking / somersault problems.
6. Elsom - I rate him, but many Wallaby fans dont. They're all idiots though.
7. Pocock - more often than not our best player.
8. Palu - 6'6 and 125kgs, but you wouldnt always know it. Needs a first name like Digby to sow some anger.
9. Genia - good player
10. Cooper - good player (or just a poor mans [insert your favourite]) depending on where you're from.
11. JOC (Mitchell is unlikely to make it back unfortunately) - good player, bad haircut. Recently referred to his 'Brand' which is a shame.
12. The most open position. Giteau (good enough anymore?) / Barnes (dizzy) / O'Connor (small) / McCabe (not fashionable) / A Fa'aingaa (from Queensland) all being mooted depending on the opponent.
13. Ashley-Cooper - I think our best backline player across the past 3 or 4 year period.
14. Ioane - good player. Legend has it the neck tattoo is came after he killed a man who said Digby was a hairdresser's name.
15. Beale - good player

16. Slipper (good for a young player, but only 21) / Kepu (good S15, but unproven in tests) / BA (still scratchy after his knee)
17. TPN / Moore
18. Simmons - an up and comer for us. 22yo and has been good for the Reds this year. May get overlooked for more experience
19. McCalman / Higginbotham / Bring Back George Smith
20. Burgess - Bit of a Mike Phillips. Cant pass for s&*^, but good defender and ball runner.
21. One of these > Giteau / Barnes / McCabe / A Fa'aingaa / Turner / Morohan / Shepherd / Davies / Gerrard
22. Maybe another loosie as Beale / JOC / Giteau / Barnes / AAC all play a few positions. Heard talk of no Burgess and Giteau to cover 9,10,12. Props all have a history of playing 10.

Looks like the 10-12-13 channel can be exploited. Beating Aussies will require attack not defense IMO. Stopping the Aussies scoring is too great a challenge. Attacking them ourselves is far better.

boomer, I like McCabe, but you're right, that doesn't seem to be fashionable - good, solid player, not spectacular but would do a job in an otherwise electric backline

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:boomer, I like McCabe, but you're right, that doesn't seem to be fashionable - good, solid player, not spectacular but would do a job in an otherwise electric backline

Yeah. That,s exactly why I'd like to give him a try as well AS.

McCabe is a player I really rate. Very abrasive and physical be it at 12 or 15.

I've rejigged the back 3 because I don't think Kearney will start but heres my pennys worth.

1 Cian Healy: Not the best scrummager but an explosive ball carrier
2 Rory Best: Lineout throwing can be wayward at times under pressure and not the best ball carrier but has a phenomanal work rate around the pitch and an good scrummager. Prone to giving away penalties.
3 Ross: Solid scrummager. Not the best in the lose but better than some make out
4 POC: Great leader and talisman. Great lineout operator and workrate but not the best hands or ball carrier.
5 DOC: Excellent workrate but maybe lacks the size and handling skills needed in the modern game. Prone to giving away penalties.
6 SOB: Best ball carrier in Europe maybe. Not as effective as Ferris maybe in the tackle and rucks but Ireland's dangerman in attack.
7 D Wallace: Not the best on the deck but an incredible athlete and top class ball carrier. More of a 6.5.
8 Heaslip: One of the best no8's in the game. Great athlete and footballer.
9 Reddan: Not a great player but links well with Sexton and the back row. Prone to throwing intercept passes and silly mistakes but can be dangerous.
10 Sexton: Can have off days and force the play too much but is a classy player with the ball in hand. Very strong physically and can really dominate games when on form.
12 Darcy: Not as effective as he once was. Deceptively strong and a good defender but not a great distributer and makes less breaks than he used to.
13 BOD: Hasn't got the pace anymore but is still dangerous. Great work rate in defence and still has the eye for a gap and knows where the tryline is. Tends to produce in the biggest games.
11 Trimble: Powerful and aggressive runner. Excellent work rate but kicking and passing still not the best but better than they used to be.
14 Bowe: Runs great angles and is a top class finisher. Solid in defence and one of the best all round wingers around. Hasn't had the best season domestically.
15 Earls: Dangerous player in space and a talented footballer. Deceptively strong with pace but yet to be tested under the high ball at 15.

red_stag wrote:Looks like the 10-12-13 channel can be exploited. Beating Aussies will require attack not defense IMO. Stopping the Aussies scoring is too great a challenge. Attacking them ourselves is far better.

I don't know the answer to that one stag. You could beat us up in the forwards, but we do seem to offer points through our back line defense. The risk in opening up to attack us is that you need to be accurate. Cooper, Beale and Genia appear to be very clever at making the most of half chances.

What has gone wrong with Kearney? Lions tour, plus the tour to NZ and Oz before the most recent one, he really was very good.

red_stag wrote:Looks like the 10-12-13 channel can be exploited. Beating Aussies will require attack not defense IMO. Stopping the Aussies scoring is too great a challenge. Attacking them ourselves is far better.

I agree Stag. Coincedently our backrow, especially O'Brien is purpose built for attacking the 10-12 channel, as are Trimble, Bowe and Sexton. This gives us our best chance in my opinion. Certainly kicking the ball away and trying to defend would be suicidal. I can't believe anyone would suggest "kick and catch" Kearney as an option at 15 for this one.

boomeranga,

Injuries have been the biggest problem. The other one is that he isn't necessarily the best attacking full back. As a high bomb disposal expert, he is probably in the top 3 in the world but given the way this is Ireland team is developing and trying to play, he is not the right option.

boomeranga wrote:What has gone wrong with Kearney? Lions tour, plus the tour to NZ and Oz before the most recent one, he really was very good.

He's been injured all season but prior to this the law interpretation changes have made him less effective. He's still young enough to adapt but for me he really needs to expand his game and counterattack more.

seems theres a consensus building that we target the half backs and disrupt distribution - anyone have Kidney's email adress I'm sure he'll want our opinion.

I wonder what kind of pressure Deans will come under to play what the ARU see as the "brand" players, I agree that McCabe is a good option seems tough as nails and would run hard at Darcy(or Mr A N Other) and BOD.

Without knowing what will happen prior to the Australia game, I'd stick with the same side that beat England. Not being like Eddie rewarding that form but because they offer the best blend and balance in my opinion when it comes to beating Australia. Possibly the only changes I'd make is Cullen, which I think would improve our lineout, but I love O'Callaghan's industry around the pitch or Ferris, as he gives us more ballast in defence and the ruck.

I would be quite comfortable with McCabe running straight at our centres. I would trust in our centres to swallow him up. I'm glad Giteau is so out of form because with his all round game, he would cause our midfield havoc in harmony with Cooper.

MBTGOG wrote:boomeranga,

Injuries have been the biggest problem. The other one is that he isn't necessarily the best attacking full back. As a high bomb disposal expert, he is probably in the top 3 in the world but given the way this is Ireland team is developing and trying to play, he is not the right option.

+1

So glad someone has said this. This should be tattoo-d to Gibson's forehead

MBTGOG wrote:I would be quite comfortable with McCabe running straight at our centres. I would trust in our centres to swallow him up. I'm glad Giteau is so out of form because with his all round game, he would cause our midfield havoc in harmony with Cooper.

Munsty, agree re Giteau, but McCabe has decent distribution skills in attack but would be key in defence

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:

MBTGOG wrote:boomeranga,

Injuries have been the biggest problem. The other one is that he isn't necessarily the best attacking full back. As a high bomb disposal expert, he is probably in the top 3 in the world but given the way this is Ireland team is developing and trying to play, he is not the right option.

+1

So glad someone has said this. This should be tattoo-d to Gibson's forehead

+2

As,

They are decent distribution skills but nothing on the level of Giteau or even Barnes. Giteau is actually a pretty decent defender so I wouldn't see that as a reason for McCabe to start. Australia like a high octane offence and I'm not totally sure McCabe fits into that.

Maybe when the players around him mature a bit but strangely enough and it doesn't look right when writing it down, but these young players would probably be smothered by an older head trying to reel them in.

Fair play, but isn't Giteau's form utterly gash at the mo?

It's not great but I think people expect so much more from him. He did start to play better towards the end of the season coinciding the the mini resurgence from the Brumbies.

Problem is his desire to play at fly-half even though he is much more effective at first centre and that is the only position he will be playing for Australia.

The world cup will come too soon for Kearney, but he’s not a relic of a game that passed him by he’s a top class fullback who’s skills stagnated when the game evolved. He’s going to be training and playing within a set up that has got the best out of the backs in it’s ranks next year and I guarantee he’ll be starting at fullback in the 6nations come February.

You guarantee Mick? Guaran-damn-tee? Even with Felix Jones flying up the ladder? Or what if Earls becomes Ireland's starting full back during their amazing World Cup campaign?

MBTGOG wrote:You guarantee Mick? Guaran-damn-tee? Even with Felix Jones flying up the ladder? Or what if Earls becomes Ireland's starting full back during their amazing World Cup campaign?

I give it my sweaty New Orelanes gangster “ga-raun-tee!”*

*not a guarantee.

He’ll be a much better player under Schmidt. His weaknesses are that he’s reluctant to look for an offload, he runs poor lines and his hands aren’t great. 3 of the pillars that Leinster’s backline was built on this season.

Mick - Schmidt isn't a miracle worker. He still hasn't got best out of Luke Fitz for the reason that he runs poor lines.

Mick,

Those are three big things to change in less than half a year.

It's not just half a year though, Kearney was training with the squad before this season was done, he's not match fit but he's learning the way things are done now.

Fitz is a special case, injury combined with fear of losing his place at international level, combined with a must try harder attitude mean that Fitz was forcing his game. Patience is the key, and it will be better for the 2 lads in the long run if they don't make the WC squad.

Mick - I don't think so. I think people forget that Leinster were a good team before Schmidt arrived and he can only do so much. Kearney is young enough to change but playing for Schmidt won't do that automatically.

I don't know if it's directly got anything to do with Schmidt arriving, maybe it's more to do with Gaffney leaving or maybe just the change itself has just envigorated the backs this season. But something has done it. Individual battles with form aside the backs are playing better now than they were last season (backed up by try scoring stats, WBPs etc.).

All i'm saying is Kearney will be in a better environment come next season and he won't be playing if he doesn't change his game, I have faith that he can adapt and flourish.

A leopard can't changes his spots

If Kearney can't spot a counterattacking opportunity or instinctively know when to offload then Schimdt isn't going to give him these things.

If Kearney has these skills then he might be able to develop them and bring them out but instinct is one thing a coach can't give a player.

Well he turned from a counter attacking fullback with a wicked side step and an eye for the try line into a defensive high ball specialist. So I’m sure he can revert to type handy enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUSANCkoX5s&playnext=1&list=PL7E4575F6C1BB214F

Your backline is moving better Mick but having backs with a skill set who can do this coupled with a change in laws has helped. It hasn't been a great season for Darcy and Fitz for example. Shaggy, Nacewa and BOD have been in exceptional form.

Kearney needs a lot of work. An awful lot of work.

I think fitz actually runs great lines he's one of the irish backs who looks to give and take offloads all the time unfortunatly he is generally a yard or two ahead in recieving the offload.

Darcy had a bad 6n but other than that he has been pretty good I thought

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:unfortunatly he is generally a yard or two ahead in recieving the offload.

To me thats running poor lines. Overrunning the ball.

red_stag wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:unfortunatly he is generally a yard or two ahead in recieving the offload.

To me thats running poor lines. Overrunning the ball.

hmm Fitz is a interesting one as he's always been a clever player with a good awareness of space. In my opinion he does pick good lines, in that he sees the space and his angles are good. His timing seems to be off to often though.

Overrunning the ball can also be a sign of a player who doesn't have confidence in his pace. I think Fitzgerald hasn't had the same gas since his injuries and I think he knows this. This may be affecting his timing and discision making. He seems to be forcing everything and making errors.

That said he scored a cracking try against Ulster in the magners SF and put in a couple of huge hits on Courtney Lawes and Doug Howlett in the closing weeks of the season.

He is very good defensively I think. Just for me he times his runs poorly and the expansive running game doesn't come as easy to him. I don't think its a massive problem. Just saying that Schmidts coaching alone isn't a miracle cure and using his as an example of a Leinster back who hasn't had a great year.