Rafa Nadal: a difficult road ahead

First topic message reminder :

In another article, written in the old 606 before the beginning of the clay season, I questioned Nadal ability to handle the pressure of having to defend a massive amount of ranking points, at a time when his dominance over tennis seemed challenged by the Djokovic’s rise. The article turned out to be prescient. In the first 7 months of 2011, Nadal has seen his total ranking points eroded, from the peak of 12,450 reached at the end of 2010 to the current 11,270. It’s a gross loss 1,200 circa, which should be further adjusted to reflect the 500 points earned playing an additional tournament this year (Barcelona open): total: - 1,700.

Now: Nadal is approaching the hard court season, his weakest surface, with still a consistent 4,000 points and a US Open to defend, and a big question mark over his ability to compete against Djokovic. In this circumstances it’s not unimaginable a scenario where Nadal could continue his ranking points slide, and, potentially, a close contest for the number 2 spot against Federer in the months to come.

Julius had posted this link, which is useful (only till 2007).

http://www.tennis28.com/slams/agerecords_winners.html
http://www.tennis28.com/charts/winner_age.GIF

And we all know the reason why Goran won Wimbledon don't

we ?



$^&$! Weather !

The weather isn't why he won it. It's why he didn't lose it.
(Figure that one out!)

Here's a brilliant link for Tenez:

http://blogs.tennis.com/thewrap/2011/07/summary-judgment.html

Laverfan, well you answered my question that Djokovic served better in the DC final, I think we are both agreed on that point. Now you do remember the serving problems Djoko was having prior to that US OPen in 2010 particularly at wimbeldon and the clay court season that year? So it is obvious that Djokovic . Certainly, backing up your serve is part of it. But the progression between his serve now and even the later part of 2010 has been more than noticeable.

socal1976 wrote:Laverfan, well you answered my question that Djokovic served better in the DC final, I think we are both agreed on that point. Now you do remember the serving problems Djoko was having prior to that US OPen in 2010 particularly at wimbeldon and the clay court season that year? So it is obvious that Djokovic . Certainly, backing up your serve is part of it. But the progression between his serve now and even the later part of 2010 has been more than noticeable.

socal - I would say the two reasons that Djoko had problems with his serve were

a) Tod Martin tried to change his whole service technique and

b) He swapped racquets !

bogbrush wrote:Normally when you look for a reason for a change it's most sensible to look for one thing that has altered, not a load of complicated stuff.

Tenez's explanation that Djokovic got fit seems to do just that. Given everyone agrees he got fit, maybe there's simply no reason to go looking for anything else because the result doesn't need anything else.

Ergo, Djokovic 2010 serve, Nadal 2011 confidence are probably all red herrings. Djokovic got fit.

No the red herrings are what come flying out of your keyboard with each incessantly contrafactual post that you grace us with. Lets see contrary to most of your opinions what the facts say; lets analyze the progression of Djokovic's current stats:(all 2011 can't find the damn stats from 2010.)

Aces-20th on the ATP tour
First serve percentage-11 th
First serve points won-16th
Second serve points won-1st
Service games won-3rd
Break point save percentage:2nd

This was the guy who had the worst percentage of aces to double faults of anyone in the top 10 last year. Djokovic in Servic games won was ranked in the high 40s last year and now he is 3rd. But somehow contrary to the marked and startling improvement in his serve as documented by a year's worth of ATP stats, Bogbrush believes that his serving improvement is a red herring. If you listen to what the man himself says on the subject he says it was a little improvements in all aspects happening at the same time. So in away yes it is fitness, its his serve, and both of these combined give him confidence. Confidence comes from belief, belief comes from ability. In conclusion, your belief that the serving improvement is a red herring or false is contrary to the stats, contrary to numerous observers in the media, and contrary to what the man himself has to say on the subject.

yummymummy wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Laverfan, well you answered my question that Djokovic served better in the DC final, I think we are both agreed on that point. Now you do remember the serving problems Djoko was having prior to that US OPen in 2010 particularly at wimbeldon and the clay court season that year? So it is obvious that Djokovic . Certainly, backing up your serve is part of it. But the progression between his serve now and even the later part of 2010 has been more than noticeable.

socal - I would say the two reasons that Djoko had problems with his serve were

a) Tod Martin tried to change his whole service technique and

b) He swapped racquets !

Full agreement here with this I have written about it myself. However what is important about this point in the discussion is that many people are claiming that its just fitness. The improvement is in numerous areas, and even if Nadal is off form from 2010. If he does get back to form he will be playing a better Djokovic as well with a better serve. So then it will be really interesting to see what happens between these two great young champions.

Thanks socal - nice to see SOMEONE agrees with me



The other point about Djokers fitness is the fact that, until

a few months ago, he wasn't aware that he had a Gluten allergy !



Remove the Gluten from his diet and Voila!



A new. improved, fitter Djoko !

And now it's up to Rafa to retaliate with an improved game !



Can He ?



I think so

Yummy, it is a variety of factors but a certain someone wants to focus only on fitness because that furthers an agenda. Nadal can do it. I think he is a very talented player who is very coachable. But I think he needs to make some dramatic changes in his shot selection and tactics. A generally more aggressive approach I think is the angle he has to take to counter what Djoko has done.

If you are thinking of who I am thinking of socal - then

fitness will be the be all and end all of tennis



One has to think that a certain amount of tennis knowledge

as in WHERE and HOW to hit the ball is tempered by a little

talent !



Hence the Numbers 1 through 4 in the World

I wonder how many more Rafa-Nole matches there will be this year, given that they can only meet in finals. On hard courts there are several players who are capable of beating either of them on a one-off basis.

Murray for one !!!!



Soderling at a push likewise Tsonga .

Yummy, one would assume it takes a great deal of talent and refined skill in hitting a tennis ball to make it to the top of the tennis world. It is very amusing how there are so many people who disagree with this obvious truism.

Julius they could meet in the final of Davis Cup although I don't know if Rafa will participate in that. Well between the two of them they have played in 16 finals this year, I would be surprised if they didn't meet one more time before the year end, and the two of them are the most likely participants in the year end finals as well.

laverfan wrote:Julius had posted this link, which is useful (only till 2007).

http://www.tennis28.com/slams/agerecords_winners.html
http://www.tennis28.com/charts/winner_age.GIF

Laver: very interesting and telling statistic. Actually I have myself few grafhs about this issue but didn't know how to post these.

In summary the results are as follows (considering only modern era players):

81% of slams was won by players with age 26-
86% of slams winners were 27-

Of the 21 slams won by players of age 28+ a total of 14 was won by Sampras, Agassi, Federer and Connors.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:
Laver: very interesting and telling statistic. Actually I have myself few graphs about this issue but didn't know how to post these.

In summary the results are as follows (considering only modern era players):

81% of slams was won by players with age 26-
86% of slams winners were 27-

Of the 21 slams won by players of age 28+ a total of 14 was won by Sampras, Agassi, Federer and Connors.

You can post an image of the graph on https://imgur.com/ and post the link here.

laverfan wrote:Julius had posted this link, which is useful (only till 2007).

http://www.tennis28.com/slams/agerecords_winners.html
http://www.tennis28.com/charts/winner_age.GIF

Have seen the first of these links before. In summary-

No of Slam winners by age

age 17 - 3
18 - 2
19 - 5
20 - 9
21 - 16
22 - 17
23 - 14
24 - 21
25 - 20
26 - 15
27 - 7
28 - 4
29 - 8
30 - 8
31 - 4
32 - 1
33 - 1
34 - 1
35 - 1
36 - 1
37 - 1

Peak years for winning ranges from 21 to 26 with a big fall off at just 27! More slam winners aged 21 than 27. Chances of winning a slam over the age of 31 are very slim unless your Ken Roswall. He won 3 over this age - the last at 37.

hawkeye wrote:
Peak years for winning ranges from 21 to 26 with a big fall off at just 27! More slam winners aged 21 than 27. Chances of winning a slam over the age of 31 are very slim unless your Ken Roswall. He won 3 over this age - the last at 37.

Davis Cup 1973, Captain '[Neal] Fraser's Antique Roadshow' in the finals against USA (in Public Hall, Cleveland). Rosewall - 38, Laver - 35, Mal Anderson - 38, Newcombe - 29. Rosewall (17 years since the last DC), Anderson (15 years since last DC), Laver (11 years since last DC), Newcombe (6 years since last DC) and Fraser (10 years since last DC) white-washed Stan Smith, Tom Gorman and Erik van Dillen 5-0.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Davis_Cup

That is what I call longevity. Rosewall 1953 AO to 1974 Wimbledon - a span of 21 years. Pancho Gonzalez rivals him from 1948 US Open to 1969 W (4th round). Amazing careers, which the current generation will have hard times attaining. Ken 'Muscles' Rosewall W/L at slams - AO (45-10), FO (24-3), W (47-11) and USO (57-10).

Federer (2004-2011 Top 10) comes close to Rosewall (12 years in Top 10) for rankings among others.

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Normally when you look for a reason for a change it's most sensible to look for one thing that has altered, not a load of complicated stuff.

Tenez's explanation that Djokovic got fit seems to do just that. Given everyone agrees he got fit, maybe there's simply no reason to go looking for anything else because the result doesn't need anything else.

Ergo, Djokovic 2010 serve, Nadal 2011 confidence are probably all red herrings. Djokovic got fit.

No the red herrings are what come flying out of your keyboard with each incessantly contrafactual post that you grace us with. Lets see contrary to most of your opinions what the facts say; lets analyze the progression of Djokovic's current stats:(all 2011 can't find the damn stats from 2010.)

Aces-20th on the ATP tour
First serve percentage-11 th
First serve points won-16th
Second serve points won-1st
Service games won-3rd
Break point save percentage:2nd

This was the guy who had the worst percentage of aces to double faults of anyone in the top 10 last year. Djokovic in Servic games won was ranked in the high 40s last year and now he is 3rd. But somehow contrary to the marked and startling improvement in his serve as documented by a year's worth of ATP stats, Bogbrush believes that his serving improvement is a red herring. If you listen to what the man himself says on the subject he says it was a little improvements in all aspects happening at the same time. So in away yes it is fitness, its his serve, and both of these combined give him confidence. Confidence comes from belief, belief comes from ability. In conclusion, your belief that the serving improvement is a red herring or false is contrary to the stats, contrary to numerous observers in the media, and contrary to what the man himself has to say on the subject.

Well obviously the only things that stop Nole are people sabotaging his service or giving him byes in competition. Couldn't be anything prosaic like being able to run around longer.

socal1976 wrote:Bogbrush believes that his serving improvement is a red herring.

Does fitness not play a role in the serving performance? Pretty sure Del Potro would definitely agree that being fit translates into better serving, as shown based on his loss to Gulbis last night in LA.

socal1976 wrote:but a certain someone wants to focus only on fitness because that furthers an agenda

That is what I call innuendo. Dragging Tenez's physicality argument vs. general improved fitness (both physical and mental) and muddying the water makes no sense. They are two different subjects. Djokovic and Cetojevic have a well-documented relationship. There is no reason to drag Cetojevic to level of Fuentes and imply innuendo. Tenez has not made such suggestions either.

laverfan wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Bogbrush believes that his serving improvement is a red herring.

Does fitness not play a role in the serving performance? Pretty sure Del Potro would definitely agree that being fit translates into better serving, as shown based on his loss to Gulbis last night in LA.

socal1976 wrote:but a certain someone wants to focus only on fitness because that furthers an agenda

That is what I call innuendo. Dragging Tenez's physicality argument vs. general improved fitness (both physical and mental) and muddying the water makes no sense. They are two different subjects. Djokovic and Cetojevic have a well-documented relationship. There is no reason to drag Cetojevic to level of Fuentes and imply innuendo. Tenez has not made such suggestions either.

Laverfan to your first point, I am sure being fitter helps in serving as in a lot of other things in life and tennis as well. But you must remember that Djokovic had a lengthy and well documented serving slump that came from both a change in racquets and then after that a complete change in his technique. It isn't coincidental that after he fired Martin went back to his old motion all of sudden his results get better and we see a gradual improvement in results. Here is the sequence 1. fires Martin I believe late spring of 2010 (not certain on exact date but it was before wimby) 2. Changes serve back 3. Semi wimby 4. Final US open 5. Davis Cup victory. Then onto the glory of 2011. The statistics and results bear out on the importance of the trend. Throughtout the summer and fall the serve was getting better as he was readjusting to the old motion. By Davis cup final he served imperiously, the first time that has happened in really over a year.

As for Tenez and BB it is clear they have an agenda to forward this argument that Federer is more talented and loses only to the super fit muscular guys, who really aren't that talented or great in terms of technical ability. This is a theme in virtually 90 percent of their posts, and this agenda is clear to anyone who reads their posts. Dismiss and denigrate Roger's contemporary rivals with this silly physicality and other arguments.

Federer is super-fit, always was. I have no agenda as you suggest.

In fact my opinion is that Nadal is not fit enough to support his game so has to stretch the time between points.
Djokovic is mega-fit, which obviously is an essential part of his game. Just look at what happened to Lleyton Hewitt as soon as he lost his physical edge; the same thing happened to Nole in reverse when he was less fit in 2010.

bogbrush wrote:Federer is super-fit, always was. I have no agenda as you suggest.

In fact my opinion is that Nadal is not fit enough to support his game so has to stretch the time between points.
Djokovic is mega-fit, which obviously is an essential part of his game. Just look at what happened to Lleyton Hewitt as soon as he lost his physical edge; the same thing happened to Nole in reverse when he was less fit in 2010.

Again you want to put it all down to just fitness and the man himself states that while fitness played a role that his serve has also been a big part of his success. The facts and the progression of Novak's serve as documented by ATP statistics show this point clearly. Did you guys watch him serve the last couple of years? it was not with this type of consistency and placement in terms to how much closer he is willing to go for the corners and to get good depth as well.

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Federer is super-fit, always was. I have no agenda as you suggest.

In fact my opinion is that Nadal is not fit enough to support his game so has to stretch the time between points.
Djokovic is mega-fit, which obviously is an essential part of his game. Just look at what happened to Lleyton Hewitt as soon as he lost his physical edge; the same thing happened to Nole in reverse when he was less fit in 2010.

Again you want to put it all down to just fitness and the man himself states that while fitness played a role that his serve has also been a big part of his success. The facts and the progression of Novak's serve as documented by ATP statistics show this point clearly. Did you guys watch him serve the last couple of years? it was not with this type of consistency and placement in terms to how much closer he is willing to go for the corners and to get good depth as well.

The Fognini/Martin Axis of Sabotage hypothesis is one option; the getting fitter is another.

Which makes more sense? I don't know, it's a toughie.

bogbrush wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Normally when you look for a reason for a change it's most sensible to look for one thing that has altered, not a load of complicated stuff.

Tenez's explanation that Djokovic got fit seems to do just that. Given everyone agrees he got fit, maybe there's simply no reason to go looking for anything else because the result doesn't need anything else.

Ergo, Djokovic 2010 serve, Nadal 2011 confidence are probably all red herrings. Djokovic got fit.

No the red herrings are what come flying out of your keyboard with each incessantly contrafactual post that you grace us with. Lets see contrary to most of your opinions what the facts say; lets analyze the progression of Djokovic's current stats:(all 2011 can't find the damn stats from 2010.)

Aces-20th on the ATP tour
First serve percentage-11 th
First serve points won-16th
Second serve points won-1st
Service games won-3rd
Break point save percentage:2nd

This was the guy who had the worst percentage of aces to double faults of anyone in the top 10 last year. Djokovic in Servic games won was ranked in the high 40s last year and now he is 3rd. But somehow contrary to the marked and startling improvement in his serve as documented by a year's worth of ATP stats, Bogbrush believes that his serving improvement is a red herring. If you listen to what the man himself says on the subject he says it was a little improvements in all aspects happening at the same time. So in away yes it is fitness, its his serve, and both of these combined give him confidence. Confidence comes from belief, belief comes from ability. In conclusion, your belief that the serving improvement is a red herring or false is contrary to the stats, contrary to numerous observers in the media, and contrary to what the man himself has to say on the subject.

Well obviously the only things that stop Nole are people sabotaging his service or giving him byes in competition. Couldn't be anything prosaic like being able to run around longer.

OMG Socal - Djokovic has always been a top class fantastic player, but what has kept him from achieving this year's results before has been his flaky health sometimes (in other words his fitness) ; his breathing problems, his retirement from AO 2009 which in turn affected his confidence and therefore some aspects of his game, which by and large was still way ahead of the rest of the field outside the top 4.

Djokovic himself has talked about how eliminating gluten from his diet meant being able to manage his asthma and how much fitter he was, which of course has given him the confidence to stay with supreme athletes like Federer and Nadal over 5 sets and still have the match on his raquet, and consequently to trust elements in his game which wobbled as he lost confidence.

You only have to look at how confidence/fitness affects the other top players - Nadal not on top physical form gets too defensive way back from the baseline and hits too many balls mid court.

Actually the people you are arguing with are being far more complimentary about Nole than you are - he always had the ingredients, he just needed to manage his health/fitness better. Thank goodness he has!

I am not disputing that severing links with Martin and resolving the raquet issue have not played their part - but I think the major change has been in him managing his fitness and his health, allowing him to have confidence in his game and his body.

Timeplease, I didn't say fitness wasn't an ingredient. Actually if you listen to what Novak has to say he talks about fitness, but he also talks about improvements in his serve. If Djokovic was as fast and fit as a bunny rabbit and throwing in more double faults than aces this season like he was last year would he be number #1 in the world? I have never disputed improvements in the man's health and fitness. What I disputed was bogbrush calling the effects of improving his serve a red herring. Of course he is fitter, of course that helps. But alone it is not sufficient to explain the dramatic change in results.

09 and 10 Djokovic finished #3 in the world with a highly deficient serve, working out his serving problems would obviously see him bounce up the rankings. People talk about his MTO problem as if he was withdrawing in every single match and calling the trainer all the time. His last withdrawal was the Serbia of 2010, and before that Australia of 09. It was hardly the career killing epidemic people have made it out to be. His serve however was just a disaster for about an 18 month period. And you can virtually go back to the date that he fired martin and changed back his serve to the date that his results and his serving simultaneously start getting better.

I mean there is a clear timeline backed up by a massive improvement in serving statistics this year over the last two years.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2010/09/36-US-Open-Week-2/US-Open-Final-Stats.aspx

Serving at US open 2010 day before the final

SERVE Nadal Djokovic
Aces 37 22
Double Faults 11 24
Unreturned Serves 39% 25%
1st Serve % 64% 69%
1st Serve Points 84% 71%
2nd Serve Points 67% 56%
Service Games Won 98% 88%
Broken 2 13
Break Points Saved 88% 72%


Here are the serving statistics going into the final of US open 2010( not including final match with nadal): See how for the entire tournament Djokovic hit more double faults to aces. And he won a lower percentage of points on first serve and on second serve than he is currently winning. And held at a slightly lower percentage than he is currently holding at. In every area his serve was significantly poorer than it is today. He currently is in the top 10 or 20 in virtually every serving category right now. Last year he was barely in the top 50 in many categories. GOING INTO THAT FINAL HE HAD HIT 2 MORE DOUBLE FAULTS IN THE TOURNEY THAN HE HAD ACES.

Plus he played really well that USO and his serve was better than it was at wimby just few months earlier. He actually served very well in the USO when compared to how he had been serving a couple of months earlier. Amazingly, Djokovic was broken 13 times going into the final and 6 more in the final. Of a tournament he got to the final in. What tournament this season has novak been broken 19 times in?

Improved fitness is key to maintaining a good service rhythm under pressure and of course service games are not held just on the delivery.

bogbrush wrote:Improved fitness is key to maintaining a good service rhythm under pressure and of course service games are not held just on the delivery.

Except that you ignore the long and documented history of Djokovic changing his service motion. Good fitness probably helps you in all areas of life from sex, to studying, to serving. But that isn't why his serve went into the dumps for 18 months. Everyone who followed the game knew that he reworked his swing completely and just lost his serve. Again your opinions with zero facts to back it up.

The evidence is clear in terms of serving statistics. In 2010, in a tournament that Novak beat Fed and reached the final (uso 2010) he was broken 19 times. 6 times in the final against Nadal, he hit more double faults than aces and won a lower percentage of points on 1st serve, 2nd serve, and held at lower percentage than his average numbers in 2011. There is no dispute, the only difficulty we have is getting bogbrush and his disciples to actually acknowledge proven facts.

Double faults is often a sign of trying to put too much on the 2nd, aarguably caused by concern about staying power in rallies.

He's taken his fitness to new levels this year which would certainly take the pressure off the serve.

Broken record, same old BB, ignore the facts and continue to simply restate your own preconceived notion over and over again. If you repeat something over and over again bogbrush without any factual support it doesn't make it true.

socal1976 wrote:Broken record, same old BB, ignore the facts and continue to simply restate your own preconceived notion over and over again. If you repeat something over and over again bogbrush without any factual support it doesn't make it true.

Says the man who thinks getting a bye sabotages your Slam campaign. Classic.

bogbrush wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Broken record, same old BB, ignore the facts and continue to simply restate your own preconceived notion over and over again. If you repeat something over and over again bogbrush without any factual support it doesn't make it true.

Says the man who thinks getting a bye sabotages your Slam campaign. Classic.

Says the man who wants to change the subject from getting totally trounced in this debate. Let me know when you got a single fact to back up your red herring claims. Oh but you don't do well with facts now do you?