Rafa Nadal: a difficult road ahead

First topic message reminder :

In another article, written in the old 606 before the beginning of the clay season, I questioned Nadal ability to handle the pressure of having to defend a massive amount of ranking points, at a time when his dominance over tennis seemed challenged by the Djokovic’s rise. The article turned out to be prescient. In the first 7 months of 2011, Nadal has seen his total ranking points eroded, from the peak of 12,450 reached at the end of 2010 to the current 11,270. It’s a gross loss 1,200 circa, which should be further adjusted to reflect the 500 points earned playing an additional tournament this year (Barcelona open): total: - 1,700.

Now: Nadal is approaching the hard court season, his weakest surface, with still a consistent 4,000 points and a US Open to defend, and a big question mark over his ability to compete against Djokovic. In this circumstances it’s not unimaginable a scenario where Nadal could continue his ranking points slide, and, potentially, a close contest for the number 2 spot against Federer in the months to come.

Well, really going out here on a limb, don't see Uncle Tony as a Major winner in the future, so by default.....

What I mean is: there is a question mark over Nadal’s ability to react to a situation that he’s never quite experienced before. He’s obviously a tactically aware player, but he’s also never had the necessity to modify his game dramatically to win matches. Rather than in the need of solving tactical problems he’s been,so far, mainly himself the tough problem to solve for the other players.

Have to agree with jeremy on this one. This is more than a just a mere change of tactics for Nadal. He needs to show that he can win with a different style of play than he is used to, more aggressive and more varied. This is the first time in his career that someone has pushed him like this consistently in finals of grandslams.

Personally, I don't think Nadal is too worried. Novak is really the only guy who is giving him ANY trouble.
Nadal's (read Uncle Tony's) tactics :

1) wait for the vein of Nole's form to fade away (which it is not) and be prepared to pounce at the sight of the tiniest crack in THAT wall of a game
2) be prepared by working even harder on fitness (i.e. hit the ball harder hence drain Novak more over rallies) plus working extra hours on the speed of 1st serve.

noleisthebest wrote:Personally, I don't think Nadal is too worried. Novak is really the only guy who is giving him ANY trouble.
Nadal's (read Uncle Tony's) tactics :

1) wait for the vein of Nole's form to fade away (which it is not) and be prepared to pounce at the sight of the tiniest crack in THAT wall of a game
2) be prepared by working even harder on fitness (i.e. hit the ball harder hence drain Novak more over rallies) plus working extra hours on the speed of 1st serve.

Wow..... sounds good, may I suggest further tactics:

3) Sack Uncle Tony and hire NITB as new coach: success assured!!

4) Should NITB be unavailable hire......TENEZ!!

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:Personally, I don't think Nadal is too worried. Novak is really the only guy who is giving him ANY trouble.
Nadal's (read Uncle Tony's) tactics :

1) wait for the vein of Nole's form to fade away (which it is not) and be prepared to pounce at the sight of the tiniest crack in THAT wall of a game
2) be prepared by working even harder on fitness (i.e. hit the ball harder hence drain Novak more over rallies) plus working extra hours on the speed of 1st serve.

Wow..... sounds good, may I suggest further tactics:

3) Sack Uncle Tony and hire NITB as new coach: success assured!!

4) Should NITB be unavailable hire......TENEZ!!

And Wooffie as a personal masseuse
Jeremy, you could take over his PR ...

noleisthebest wrote:
And Wooffie as a personal masseuse
..

I don't think this would be a great idea: with her impressive professional overzealus, she would make Nadal feel like the more relaxed ever to play the game (e.g. the ROAT)

noleisthebest wrote:Personally, I don't think Nadal is too worried. Novak is really the only guy who is giving him ANY trouble.
Nadal's (read Uncle Tony's) tactics :

1) wait for the vein of Nole's form to fade away (which it is not) and be prepared to pounce at the sight of the tiniest crack in THAT wall of a game
2) be prepared by working even harder on fitness (i.e. hit the ball harder hence drain Novak more over rallies) plus working extra hours on the speed of 1st serve.

Semi-agree.

Let's remember that normally at this stage of a season Nadal looks great. I think there are plenty of players who can trouble him in N America who he didn't meet last year.
I also don't believe more and more fitness is an option. I doubt he's been coasting up to now.

Otherwise, sure, he's at his absolute peak right now so shouldn't be worried about players he's already ahead of.

noleisthebest wrote:Personally, I don't think Nadal is too worried. Novak is really the only guy who is giving him ANY trouble.
Nadal's (read Uncle Tony's) tactics :

1) wait for the vein of Nole's form to fade away (which it is not) and be prepared to pounce at the sight of the tiniest crack in THAT wall of a game
2) be prepared by working even harder on fitness (i.e. hit the ball harder hence drain Novak more over rallies) plus working extra hours on the speed of 1st serve.

nolisthebest. Nadal would be very unwise to hire you as his coach (just in case he may be considering it). As your name suggests you may not have his best interests in mind. The advice you have given is certainly not something he should act on.

1) He doesn't have to wait for Nole's form to fade but he does need to work a bit on his own confidence. A few of his recent losses to Djokovic were the result of his error prone nervy play at crucial points in the matches. He should use that age old advice "play the ball and not the opponant".

2) The last thing he should do is simply hit the ball harder! Djokovic loves and is a master of those drill like rallies. He should continue what he does best. Spin and placement to get his opponant out of position before going for a winner (or maybe two in Djokovics case... ). Also make Djokovic play more forward and back as he loves running side to side. I'm not sure speed of serve is a problem. Djokovic is a good returner and without good placement can use that speed to his own advantage. Nadals serve has let him down at crucial moments though including double faults and weak nervy second serves. This is something that definately needs improvement at least to a leval he has achieved in the past. He does look as if he needs to work a bit on his fitness although I have read that this is not something he enjoys.

Just to show I'm not biased when Nadal beats Djokovic a few times I would be willing to give him a few tips...

bogbrush wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:Personally, I don't think Nadal is too worried. Novak is really the only guy who is giving him ANY trouble.
Nadal's (read Uncle Tony's) tactics :

1) wait for the vein of Nole's form to fade away (which it is not) and be prepared to pounce at the sight of the tiniest crack in THAT wall of a game
2) be prepared by working even harder on fitness (i.e. hit the ball harder hence drain Novak more over rallies) plus working extra hours on the speed of 1st serve.

Semi-agree.

Let's remember that normally at this stage of a season Nadal looks great. I think there are plenty of players who can trouble him in N America who he didn't meet last year.
I also don't believe more and more fitness is an option. I doubt he's been coasting up to now.

Otherwise, sure, he's at his absolute peak right now so shouldn't be worried about players he's already ahead of.

One thing I still can't get my head around is the fact Nadal won US Open....

If he's recovered I think he'll work extra hard to gain as many points as possible till the end of the year to keep his number 2 spot stable for the attack on number one this time next year. Interesting times ahead...really look forward to this American stretch esp as Nole truly plays his very best tennis on hard courts.
His game looks absolutely fantastic on hard courts, so I can't wait to see him let rip in New York.

noleisthebest wrote:
One thing I still can't get my head around is the fact Nadal won US Open....
If he's recovered I think he'll work extra hard to gain as many points as possible till the end of the year to keep his number 2 spot stable for the attack on number one this time next year. Interesting times ahead...really look forward to this American stretch esp as Nole truly plays his very best tennis on hard courts.
His game looks absolutely fantastic on hard courts, so I can't wait to see him let rip in New York.

It's not hard to understand when you realise that the defending champion was injured, his two main rivals met in a 5 set epic on Stupid Saturday, and his scheduled semi-final opponent rolled over tamely.

He was very confident and did an excellent job of beating what was put in front of him.

bogbrush wrote:

noleisthebest wrote:
One thing I still can't get my head around is the fact Nadal won US Open....
If he's recovered I think he'll work extra hard to gain as many points as possible till the end of the year to keep his number 2 spot stable for the attack on number one this time next year. Interesting times ahead...really look forward to this American stretch esp as Nole truly plays his very best tennis on hard courts.
His game looks absolutely fantastic on hard courts, so I can't wait to see him let rip in New York.

It's not hard to understand when you realise that the defending champion was injured, his two main rivals met in a 5 set epic on Stupid Saturday, and his scheduled semi-final opponent rolled over tamely.

He was very confident and did an excellent job of beating what was put in front of him.

Thanks Brush..now that you put it like this it makes a lot more sense...

Djokovic had a day of rest after Stupid Saturday due to rain. The final was played on Monday.

http://2010.usopen.org/en_US/scores/schedule/index.html?promo=topnav

laverfan wrote:Djokovic had a day of rest after Stupid Saturday due to rain. The final was played on Monday.

http://2010.usopen.org/en_US/scores/schedule/index.html?promo=topnav

Hey c'mon, let's not let facts get in the way of a good story!

"One thing I still can't get my head around is the fact Nadal won US Open...."

You should watch that match again. Djokovics recent match wins combined with your wishful thinking maybe distorting your vision. Enhancing Djokovics talents and diminishing Nadals.

It was an excellent match. Both players produced some of their best tennis and quite often at the same time. I was particularly impressed with Djokovic at the time. But Nadal won. He was the better player despite it supposedly being a surface better suited to Djokovic.

Compare that match to this years Wimbledon final. Djokovic won but he didn't play nearly as well as he did in the US final. Nadal played a poor match paticularly on important points. Both players are capable of better play. As a tennis fan I know which match I preferred watching...

When Djokovic loses lots of people will be writing him off as they are doing now with Nadal. They will say things like "I can't get my head around the fact that Djokovic beat Nadal at Wimbledon". So many have such short term memories!

hawkeye, I disagree about the US open final, that was not Djokovic playing his best. His serve had been improving from being in a real tailspin at wimbeldon and on that day his serve completely abandoned him. He was breaking Nadal and getting into every Nadal service game but was just having a bear of a time holding. Since wimby of last year his serve has steadily gotten back to where it was in 08 before his serving woes, and now I would say it is even better than the old days. Novak I felt was actually controlling the rallies from an even position but Nadal was serving well and he wasn't, that is why he lost.

hawkeye wrote:"One thing I still can't get my head around is the fact Nadal won US Open...."

You should watch that match again. Djokovics recent match wins combined with your wishful thinking maybe distorting your vision. Enhancing Djokovics talents and diminishing Nadals.

It was an excellent match. Both players produced some of their best tennis and quite often at the same time. I was particularly impressed with Djokovic at the time. But Nadal won. He was the better player despite it supposedly being a surface better suited to Djokovic.

Compare that match to this years Wimbledon final. Djokovic won but he didn't play nearly as well as he did in the US final. Nadal played a poor match paticularly on important points. Both players are capable of better play. As a tennis fan I know which match I preferred watching...

When Djokovic loses lots of people will be writing him off as they are doing now with Nadal. They will say things like "I can't get my head around the fact that Djokovic beat Nadal at Wimbledon". So many have such short term memories!

This is a well written post: as a known non-fan of Nadal I have to admit that he looked very strong in that match.

I have said once or twice that contrary to established wisdom, Nadal might well find more success on faster courts. In particular, against Djokovic you need some reward for hard, attacking shots as his game is so centred on "getting the next one back" and you don't get that on the slower clay or grass of Wimbledon, or even it seems at Australia.

Statistically...

US Open 2010 - Nadal vs. Djokovic

1st Server % - Nadal - 67%, Djokovic - 66%
Winners/UEs - Nadal - 49/31, Djokovic - 45/47
BPs - Nadal - 6/26, Djokovic - 3/4
Fastest Serve - Nadal - 132 mph, Djokovic - 125 mph
Avg. First Serve - Nadal 116mph, Djokovic - 117mph
Total Points Won - Nadal 136, Djokovic - 119

http://2010.usopen.org/en_US/scores/stats/day21/1701ms.html

W 2011 - Nadal vs. Djokovic

1st Server % - Nadal - 78%, Djokovic - 73%
Winners/UEs Nadal - 21/15, Djokovic - 27/12
BPs Nadal - 3/6, Djokovic 5/6
Fastest Serve Nadal - 126mph, Djokovic - 126mph
Avg. First Serve Nadal - 118mph, Djokovic - 117mph

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/stats/day21/1701ms.html

Nadal's BP conversion rate was pretty low.

hawkeye wrote:"One thing I still can't get my head around is the fact Nadal won US Open...."

You should watch that match again. Djokovics recent match wins combined with your wishful thinking maybe distorting your vision. Enhancing Djokovics talents and diminishing Nadals.

It was an excellent match. Both players produced some of their best tennis and quite often at the same time. I was particularly impressed with Djokovic at the time. But Nadal won. He was the better player despite it supposedly being a surface better suited to Djokovic.

Compare that match to this years Wimbledon final. Djokovic won but he didn't play nearly as well as he did in the US final. Nadal played a poor match paticularly on important points. Both players are capable of better play. As a tennis fan I know which match I preferred watching...

When Djokovic loses lots of people will be writing him off as they are doing now with Nadal. They will say things like "I can't get my head around the fact that Djokovic beat Nadal at Wimbledon". So many have such short term memories!

Hwakeye,

you always seem to read my post the worst possible way (the one I didn't mean them to sound like )

Nadal won USO fair and square, he was the better player, no question about it.
Mypost was just expressing disbelief that he was able to raise his form and achieve the win, bearing in mind how difficult it must have been: he is not known for being a fast hard-court player, esp. American post-Wimbledon part of the season, plus he had already had an insane first half of the year winning almost everything.
So my comment was more admiration/astonishment than anything else....

I would vouch for nitb there, that's how I read her post.

bogbrush wrote:I would vouch for nitb there, that's how I read her post.

socal1976 wrote:hawkeye, I disagree about the US open final, that was not Djokovic playing his best. His serve had been improving from being in a real tailspin at wimbeldon and on that day his serve completely abandoned him.

Not based on statistics as I quoted earlier. And he beat Federer on Saturday with the same serve.

socal1976 wrote:He was breaking Nadal and getting into every Nadal service game but was just having a bear of a time holding.

Again, statistics do not bear this. Djokovic's BPs were 3/4, but were crucial breaks. Nadal could not convert his BPs (6/26) otherwise the scoreline would have been very different.

socal1976 wrote:Since wimby of last year his serve has steadily gotten back to where it was in 08 before his serving woes, and now I would say it is even better than the old days. Novak I felt was actually controlling the rallies from an even position but Nadal was serving well and he wasn't, that is why he lost.

Djokovic's serve was fine in the DC match against France. It was lack of confidence which the DC win helped quite a bit in.

laverfan

Great research! Even the statistics of the the US Open match look more exciting

noleisthebest

I think we may have got our wires crossed. I never thought that you were saying that Nadal didn't deserve to win.

But I don't understand your "disbelief" at Nadals leval of play during that US Open final. Have seen him raise his leval so many times when he needs to. IMO it was such a good final because both players knew that they had to play at their very best to have chances to win. I also think Djokovics standard of play was higher in that final than it was in the AO and Wimbledon finals where he won! It was a shame for him that he lost.

In the final set of the FO Nadal again produced some exceptional tennis just when it was needed as Federer was playing so well. I don't think I'm surprised when Nadal produces his best (paticualarly in a final) but I was when he played so poorly in the Wimbledon final. Was also a bit dissapointed as it had the potential to be a great final.

Laverfan, a guy gives up 26 break points in the final and you claim that your research has proven that his serve was fine? Come on laverfan I watched that match his serve was attrocious. I have carefully followed Novak's serving crisis. Which started in sort of early 2009 and went all the way to the DC final. In fact, I have repeatedly stated that if you watch the davis cup final against france where Novak went balistic with his serve that was the first week in a long time where the old Novak serve was back.

In the summer of 2010 Novak cans martin before the wimbeldon and his service motion and goes back to his old serve. But obviously, it takes him pretty much that entire summer to get his old motion back to where it was. He was steadily getting better that whole summer and fall with the pinnacle being lights out serving in the DC final. After watching that DC final and novak's serve I knew he would have a good 2011, but I just didn't know it would be this good. Novak did not have this serve in the final of the 2010 US open. And the 26 break points, in a 4 set match should render it an open and shut case.

4 bps does tend to suggest your argument that he was into Nadals serve all the time was a bit off too.

I agree with that Nadal served well, but he was able to break him 3 times, that should be enough to win a final if your serve is in order. I do remember Nadal serving exceptionally that final and Djokovic serving very erratically.

I'm not buying all of that socal. Novak's 1st % was 66 which is pretty good and only 7 points lower than Wimbledon this year - the pace wasnt much different either. Yes his fluidity in serving is better but its not like he was double-faulting like Anna Kournikova.
26 break points are also not just about Novak's "failure" to actually serve...many of those points Nadal earned through astounding returns and aggressive court play. Nadal also served out of a tree that day (served quite a number of love service games). It was an immense performance and most commentators noted that - I dont think anyone could have beaten him that day.
For Nadal fans, what has been most disappointing is that despite his relatively good results in 2011 (by most people's yardstick) he's a pale imitation of the player that swept through FO, SW19 and USO last year.
As good as Novak's run has been this year (and it has been immense) for me Nadal just isnt the same player since early on in 2011, he seems to have acquired some technical gremlins (loads of mid-court balls, not going to the lines, forehand breaking down, not playing angles as well as before), became less aggressive (he was very aggressive in USO '10) and seems to be thinking too much about the game in real time. I dont know whether Toni started tinkering with his game too much over the winter but something threw him off stride and he hasnt got it back since - I mean the Wimbledon final was actually quite woeful by Nadal. Anyway, point is that for me Novak played an ok match in USO 2010, serve looked pretty much ok (as it did against Federer and it was enough then) and the stats show he didnt have a bad serving match, I just think Nadal was on another planet that day.

That's because those who play the way Nadal does age even earlier than average: look at what happened to Borg, Wilander, Courier, Bruguera, Hewitt just to name a few......

I disagree lydian, 26 break points is an astounding number of break points. I admit Nadal did serve remarkably Novak was able to get 3 breaks in 4 sets however. First serve percentage is not the only statistic to look at in regards to how well someone is serving. Remember he had only changed his service motion back to what it was 2 months earlier. Compare how Djokovic served in the DC final or at wimby this year with what we saw in that US Open final, now its a great deal more consistent and powerful and that is why we are seeing the results that we are seeing.

Now all that being said, I don't think a mack a truck or anything short of a bullet could have stopped Nadal in winning the title that day. He wanted the career slam and was playing in better form than now. My point is that Djokovic at that time was also not serving nearly as well. When the points were at even in the baseline exchanges Novak was winning his fair share. He lost it because he didn't serve well (due to recent changes in the motion) and Nadal served brilliantly.

socal1976 wrote:a guy gives up 26 break points in the final and you claim that your research has proven that his serve was fine?

Just watch the fifth game of the first set where Novak gets broken and vents his frustration by breaking his racquet. Also see Lydian's comment vis-a-vis 66% first serve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG90-qSU_Ww


If your reference is AO 2008, then here are Finals statistics...

https://imgur.com/iL7Px

Djokovic served at 55% in that final (much lower than 66% at USO 2010 and W 2011). In comparison, Tsonga served at 71%.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Novak-Djokovic.aspx?t=pa&y=2008&m=s&e=0# (here is the link from ATP in case you want to look at it and do not trust the imgur link. )

"Just watch the fifth game of the first set where Novak gets broken and vents his frustration by breaking his racquet. Also see Lydian's comment vis-a-vis 66% first serve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG90-qSU_Ww"

laverfan

Thankyou for posting that link. That rates right up there as one of my all time favourite points.

Not just because of Nadals amazing forehand. Not just because of the significance of the point (Nadal had broken Djokovic, Djokovic had broken back and this point gave Nadal the second break) but because of the contrast of emotions afterwards. Djokovics racket smash and in the background Nadals celebration. Both recognised the significance of the point.

I've just watched it 3 times... When is it they start playing tennis again?

Still laverfan, 26 break points and 6 breaks is not exactly a good serving day for Djokovic. Looking at one statistic like first serve percentage and totally ignoring the totality of the facts is not an accurate portrayal. Novak was able to break Nadal enough to have made that match more competitive or even to have possibly won it. But his serve let him down horribly and his serve in 2010 US open is not the serve he is currently working with. Last year I remember that he was nowhere in the top 30 for percentage of service games held, this year at 89 percent he is in the top 3 on the ATP tour. Your isolated look at the first serve percentage doesn't rebut a year's worth of statistics that prove that the Djoko serve is a different animal this year when compared to what we saw in that final.The Djoko serve let him down that day as it often did during that period in time. Fortunately, for Novak that would be one of the last dysmal serving performances he would have to date.

hawkeye wrote:In the final set of the FO Nadal again produced some exceptional tennis just when it was needed as Federer was playing so well. I don't think I'm surprised when Nadal produces his best (paticualarly in a final) but I was when he played so poorly in the Wimbledon final. Was also a bit dissapointed as it had the potential to be a great final.

I agree re the Wimbledon final. I'm a Nadal fan so this might be a bit one-eyed but it was an odd final for me. Two lopsided sets and 2 others where Nadal buckled just when it was getting interesting, much like you often see a lower-ranked player when they're up against one of the top guys - indicative of it being, at least in part, a mental issue for Nadal. There didn't seem to be many deuces either, from memory, which is unusual for Nadal-Djokovic match-ups generally and it was a pretty quick final, again against the grain for these two. Not sure they played well at the same time after the first 9 games. That said, might have looked a great final as a Djokovic fan. Nitb, socal?

Positively 4th Street wrote:

hawkeye wrote:In the final set of the FO Nadal again produced some exceptional tennis just when it was needed as Federer was playing so well. I don't think I'm surprised when Nadal produces his best (paticualarly in a final) but I was when he played so poorly in the Wimbledon final. Was also a bit dissapointed as it had the potential to be a great final.

I agree re the Wimbledon final. I'm a Nadal fan so this might be a bit one-eyed but it was an odd final for me. Two lopsided sets and 2 others where Nadal buckled just when it was getting interesting, much like you often see a lower-ranked player when they're up against one of the top guys - indicative of it being, at least in part, a mental issue for Nadal. There didn't seem to be many deuces either, from memory, which is unusual for Nadal-Djokovic match-ups generally and it was a pretty quick final, again against the grain for these two. Not sure they played well at the same time after the first 9 games. That said, might have looked a great final as a Djokovic fan. Nitb, socal?

If you want my honest opinion, I think Nadal almost didn't want to play that match for the fear of losing; mentally he had just lost his number one position, already lost their previous 4 matches (incl on2 on clay and one in Madrid), so his confidence was severely battered, he certainly suffered from confidence block to start with, which is why he tried to hype himself into the match keeping everyone at the net wait EXTRA long etc.
I saw first two sets on Youtube a week or two after the match, so can give you a proper unblinkered view wich you tend to get when you watch the match ridden with adrenaline in real time: Nadal threw EVERYTHING at Novak but Nole played sublime, there a couple of points where even I could't believe what sort of shots he returned AND with interest....Nadal tried everything he possibly could, Nole was just too good for him.
I suppose it's not easy to play with conviction (like Nadal did last year), if the guy just returns almost everything you throw at him, it must be highly demoralizing, it's exactly the same pattern and pathology Federer has with Nadal...amazing stuff...will definitely be extra interesting to see how it all progresses...

4th street, my view of Nadal/Djokovic final is that Novak played an incredible second set, he played that at a second set, now hear me out at a level that Nadal was not used to. Even if you look at their past matches during the streak all the matches were close, all the sets were close, but that second set Novak took it to a gear that the current Nadal could not hang with. The rest of the match was not that great except early the 4th set we had some good drama as well. What has got to be disconcerting for Nadal is that the losses early on this losing streak were closer matches. Indian wells and miami Nadal won the first two sets. So Nadal can comeback, but I think the verdict is clearly that new Novak is a death match for Nadal unless he can find some dramatic improvement or wait for Novak to slip. If you listen to Nadal's comments he is basically saying the same thing.

The madrid final was pretty telling. Novak goes up double break at the outset and the Spanish fans are just stunned. Then Nadal roars back and gets back to his serve after being double break down, which is just a monumental comeback in a set on the ATP tour. But Novak just broke him right back and took the first set 7-5 I believe. To blow a double break first set lead, on the road, to Nadal, on clay and still win the set. To me that is the really disturbing aspect for Nadal. The losses aren't getting closer.

socal1976 wrote:Still laverfan, 26 break points and 6 breaks is not exactly a good serving day for Djokovic.

Djokovic - USO - 95 of 143, Total points won - 119
Djokovic - W - 69 of 95, 7 Aces

Nadal - USO - 75 of 112, Total points won - 136
Nadal - W - 64 of 82, 5 Aces

In both four-set matches, Djokovic put in more serves (143, 95) and saved break points (20, 3) respectively. If Djokovic's serve was working badly @USO, he would have never saved these break points. The counter argument that he would not have faced the BPs would have required Djokovic to serve aces.

You can make the argument, that since he had to serve 48 second serves, Nadal converted +50% (24+) to his 26 BPs, which also means that Nadal was playing fantastic tennis.

Also, the assertion that in 2008 Djokovic served better is not borne by the statistics @ 55% (122 serves). That would also imply that Tsonga @AO 2008 (after beating Nadal) should have had more BPs on Djokovic's second serve (122-68=64 second serves), but he just had BP conversion of 2/5 in AO 2008.

Watch the first couple of games and the aces. I am not ignoring other parts of the game, but the assertion that Djokovic's serve was not working seems too far-fetched.

noleisthebest wrote:

Positively 4th Street wrote:

hawkeye wrote:In the final set of the FO Nadal again produced some exceptional tennis just when it was needed as Federer was playing so well. I don't think I'm surprised when Nadal produces his best (paticualarly in a final) but I was when he played so poorly in the Wimbledon final. Was also a bit dissapointed as it had the potential to be a great final.

I agree re the Wimbledon final. I'm a Nadal fan so this might be a bit one-eyed but it was an odd final for me. Two lopsided sets and 2 others where Nadal buckled just when it was getting interesting, much like you often see a lower-ranked player when they're up against one of the top guys - indicative of it being, at least in part, a mental issue for Nadal. There didn't seem to be many deuces either, from memory, which is unusual for Nadal-Djokovic match-ups generally and it was a pretty quick final, again against the grain for these two. Not sure they played well at the same time after the first 9 games. That said, might have looked a great final as a Djokovic fan. Nitb, socal?

If you want my honest opinion, I think Nadal almost didn't want to play that match for the fear of losing; mentally he had just lost his number one position, already lost their previous 4 matches (incl on2 on clay and one in Madrid), so his confidence was severely battered, he certainly suffered from confidence block to start with, which is why he tried to hype himself into the match keeping everyone at the net wait EXTRA long etc.
I saw first two sets on Youtube a week or two after the match, so can give you a proper unblinkered view wich you tend to get when you watch the match ridden with adrenaline in real time: Nadal threw EVERYTHING at Novak but Nole played sublime, there a couple of points where even I could't believe what sort of shots he returned AND with interest....Nadal tried everything he possibly could, Nole was just too good for him.
I suppose it's not easy to play with conviction (like Nadal did last year), if the guy just returns almost everything you throw at him, it must be highly demoralizing, it's exactly the same pattern and pathology Federer has with Nadal...amazing stuff...will definitely be extra interesting to see how it all progresses...

4th street, noleisthebest

There could be many reasons why Nadal played so poorly in the Wimbledon final. The fact is he did. But with Nadal it can be something of a taboo subject to discuss "reasons" as they will be interpreted as "excuses" and no player (but especially Nadal?) is allowed those.

noleisthebest

Do you really think Nadal is so naive that he believes 30 seconds extra at the net is key to slaying the mighty Djokovic? Also Nadal threw away that first set with an appalling service game. Djokovic didn't need to use the "sublime" tennis that I agree he is capable of to steal it away. For examples of Djokovics sublime play I suggest you watch the US final. Maybe in hindsight now Djokovic has had such a good year you will be able to enjoy it more?

Laverfan, that is my opinion, you can stick to yours that 6 breaks and 26 break points is Novak serving well, it simply isn't. He served like rudey poo in that USO final. He had to fight for every hold. How often has Novak had to do that in the last 8 months. I don't know on this site no one accepts the obvious I guess taking a run at me is the only pastime here, well I am up to the challenge, the guy was broken six times. Yes Nadal had something to do with it obviously, but his serve was not working. Let me ask you a question, do you think Novak served better in the USO final or in the last 5 match ups with Nadal, or in the Davis Cup final? YOU KEEP ARGUING AROUND MY POINT: That today's Novak Djokovic is significantly different than the one that played that final, his serve is much better, and other areas have improved as well. Hence the different result. He certainly didn't serve in that final like he is serving now, thus the different results in their matchup. Djokovic is currently holding 89 percent of his service games he certainly was nowhere near that level at the USO 11, and frankly I can't even see how you could dispute that fact.

Was he serving poorly at the French too? That would contradict the 2011 improving service argument.

Then again, I suppose his serve might have been put off by the bye.

Did Nadal play poorly in that WImby final? That's news to me. The fact is Djoko keeps exposing Nadal's 1-D game. As simple as that. The pressure Nadal faces at 4 all in the first set or in other pressure moments is the same for any player who knows the game is not in his hands as much as his opponent's....therefore plays beyond his comfort zone.

If one played badly in that final, it's Djoko in that 3rd set. Nothing else.

socal1976 wrote:Laverfan, that is my opinion, you can stick to yours that 6 breaks and 26 break points is Novak serving well, it simply isn't. He served like rudey poo in that USO final.

First serve Djokovic Nadal
IW 2011 61% (55/89) 42% (29/69)
Miami 2011 56% (54/95) 60% (66/110)
Madrid 2011 56% (33/58) 69% (52/75)
Rome 2011 75% (46/61) 71% (49/69)

socal1976 wrote:He had to fight for every hold. How often has Novak had to do that in the last 8 months.

The same thing happened in Madrid as was mentioned.

socal1976 wrote:I don't know on this site no one accepts the obvious I guess taking a run at me is the only pastime here, well I am up to the challenge

There is no conspiracy to malign you.

socal1976 wrote: the guy was broken six times. Yes Nadal had something to do with it obviously, but his serve was not working.

That is my point. The player across the net plays a significant role.

socal1976 wrote: Let me ask you a question, do you think Novak served better in the USO final or in the last 5 match ups with Nadal, or in the Davis Cup final? YOU KEEP ARGUING AROUND MY POINT:

Based on what I have seen, DC wins that hands down.

socal1976 wrote:That today's Novak Djokovic is significantly different than the one that played that final, his serve is much better, and other areas have improved as well. Hence the different result. He certainly didn't serve in that final like he is serving now, thus the different results in their matchup. Djokovic is currently holding 89 percent of his service games he certainly was nowhere near that level at the USO 11, and frankly I can't even see how you could dispute that fact.

His return game and his court coverage have improved starting with DC. Holding your own serve is not just a question of serving better, but returning better. Some of the BH CC winners from Djokovic are astounding. His flexibility around the court would put Jankovic and Clijsters to shame. If Djokovic was not a Tennis player, he would make a fantastic Ballet dancer (a la Nureyev).

there is the need to put the different matches in prospective:

USO 2010 final: Nadal in peak of confidence and form, coming from a streak of two consecutive slam wins and nearly unbeatable that year. You can see Djokovic with the upper hand on numerous individual points, like it happened in many other matches before, but in the end lacking the purpose to go all the way down.

Wimbledon 2011: Djokovic in full run, 4 consecutive wins over Nadal, the only unanswered question left being whether he was able or not to capture the prestigious win in a grand slam final against Nadal. Confidence is all in matches like this and Nadal at that point had completely run out of it.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:there is the need to put the different matches in prospective:

USO 2010 final: Nadal in peak of confidence and form, coming from a streak of two consecutive slam wins and nearly unbeatable that year. You can see Djokovic with the upper hand on numerous individual points, like it happened in many other matches before, but in the end lacking the purpose to go all the way down.

Wimbledon 2011: Djokovic in full run, 4 consecutive wins over Nadal, the only unanswered question left being whether he was able or not to capture the prestigious win in a grand slam final against Nadal. Confidence is all in matches like this and Nadal at that point had completely run out of it.

Agree with JK, confidence is key.
2010 was Nadal's year, 2011 is Novak's year.
Nadal is not the same player this year as last, his confidence isnt great and hasnt been all year - obviously the losses to Novak dont help but mentally he seems to have lost something. Who knows, maybe its desire...can happen to anyone in phases. The test for Nadal is how he addresses the rest of the year and what changes he makes to his approach.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:there is the need to put the different matches in prospective:

USO 2010 final: Nadal in peak of confidence and form, coming from a streak of two consecutive slam wins and nearly unbeatable that year. You can see Djokovic with the upper hand on numerous individual points, like it happened in many other matches before, but in the end lacking the purpose to go all the way down.

Wimbledon 2011: Djokovic in full run, 4 consecutive wins over Nadal, the only unanswered question left being whether he was able or not to capture the prestigious win in a grand slam final against Nadal. Confidence is all in matches like this and Nadal at that point had completely run out of it.

Confidence is a very important factor but that's not enough to explain a 4 set win versus a 4 set loss. If anything the one being confident during and after the USO 10 final shoudl be Nadal...yet he lost 5 times since! Why would Nadal lose confidence suddenly? No! the real reason is, once again, that Djoko is simply physically better in 2011 than he was in 2010. Novak was never afraid of Nadal and always felt he had a chance against him...but what he like, like all other players, was the physicality to sustain a high quality game. Now Djoko can and that is what seriously affect Nadal's confidence....as well as Djoko's but of course in positive terms for the latter.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:That's because those who play the way Nadal does age even earlier than average: look at what happened to Borg, Wilander, Courier, Bruguera, Hewitt just to name a few......

Tenez: I expressed a similar view in a previous post........ Actually it's probably the conbination of the two things. If Djokovic did't have enough self belief he probably would have let Nadal come back in the fourth set, when Nadal had several opportunities to break, and who knows what could have happened in the fifth.......

I am not sure what you mean. Are you saying Nadal aged from sept 2010 to May 2011? I certainly don;t think so though I agree with the gruelling style being tougher to sustain over time. On that occasion, it's clearly Djoko being fitter than before and that has been the main discussion point amongst all tennis commentator. They can't all be wrong.

Normally when you look for a reason for a change it's most sensible to look for one thing that has altered, not a load of complicated stuff.

Tenez's explanation that Djokovic got fit seems to do just that. Given everyone agrees he got fit, maybe there's simply no reason to go looking for anything else because the result doesn't need anything else.

Ergo, Djokovic 2010 serve, Nadal 2011 confidence are probably all red herrings. Djokovic got fit.

Tenez wrote:I am not sure what you mean. Are you saying Nadal aged from sept 2010 to May 2011? I certainly don;t think so though I agree with the gruelling style being tougher to sustain over time. On that occasion, it's clearly Djoko being fitter than before and that has been the main discussion point amongst all tennis commentator. They can't all be wrong.

yeah, that should not come as a surprise if you consider that:

Lleyton Hewitt won his last slam at age 22
Mats Wilander won his last slam at 24
Sergi Bruguera and Jim Courier won the last slam at 23.

The prime for a tennis player is notoriously a very tight period, it may vary case by case, but usually is comprised between 20 and 26 yrs of age. For players like Nadal with a very physically demanding style the prime period may be even shorter, say 19 to 24, and he may be already past his peak right now.