IRB World Rankings ... Part 1

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB
http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

4Ns Round 1
http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html

September 2012

Sat 15 Rugby Championship / Freedom Cup
New Zealand v South Africa, Dunedin
19:35 local, 07:35 GMT, 08:35 BST

nzl (on 92.43 points) at home -vs- rsa (on 84.20 points)

If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.000 92.43 84.20 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.000 92.43 84.20 No
If result is a draw 1.000 91.43 85.20 No
If rsa win by 1-15 points 2.000 90.43 86.20 No
If rsa win by more than 15 3.000 89.43 87.20 No

Sat 15 Rugby Championship
Australia v Argentina, Gold Coast
20:05 local, 10:05 GMT, 11:05 BST

aus (on 86.62 points) at home -vs- arg (on 79.34 points)

If aus win by 1-15 points 0.000 86.62 79.34 No
If aus win by more than 15 0.000 86.62 79.34 No
If result is a draw 1.000 85.62 80.34 No
If arg win by 1-15 points 2.000 84.62 81.34 No
If arg win by more than 15 3.000 83.62 82.34 No

[ed]

Original post:

Pretty much World rankings provide both an 'official' balance sheet and P/L account of international bragging rights.

Sources:
IRB Rankings : http://www.irb.com/rankings/index.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

France should go to third after this round.

I wonder how high up Argentina could go this year. If they win a game or two at home or even one abroad. They must have a small chance against Aus at home. Give them a few years and they could break into the top 5/6 again.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:France should go to third after this round.

should they

so England and France switch places? England upto fourth? if so

And you are still number 1 in cricket as well.

How many points did England get for that win?

If eng win by 1-15 points 1.586 82.61 82.93 Yes

England and France switch, Wales still in 5th I think but only 0.01 points ahead of France.

Enjoy your momentary 4th-place boys, won't last long

Oh dearie me, do we have to now put up with England fans telling us how they are the fourth best team in the world?

Absolutely not Morgan, just as you'll be ever-so modest should you win the GS next Saturday, honestly.

Why brag if we win the grand slam?
We have already won two since you lot last won one

viewtothegym wrote:Why brag if we win the grand slam?
We have already won two since you lot last won one

Good point, well made. So don't brag, go on, I dare you. I'll give you 10 seconds from the final whistle - should it happen, but don't forget Wales has a shocking 40 year record against France...

Morgannwg wrote:Oh dearie me, do we have to now put up with England fans telling us how they are the fourth best team in the world?

Dont be silly England arent the fourth best till theyve lost to France then Australia twice in a row

Knowsit17 wrote:

If eng win by 1-15 points 1.586 82.61 82.93 Yes

England and France switch, Wales still in 5th I think but only 0.01 points ahead of France.

Enjoy your momentary 4th-place boys, won't last long

I think Portnoys made a mistake btw...
I make it England behind Wales by a gnats margin, France slightly ahead still.
Youll notice the points he has there are England 82.61 France 82.93, so no swap ( if the point calculations are correct)


Can we argue with England France and Wales being on pretty much the same rating? Given recent games between the 3....

Should be a cracker next weekend.

No, France is on 82.61 and England is 82.93

I generally see teams within about 2 points as 'equal'.

The rankings are completely meaningless until the tournament is over.

Most sequence of (likely) results should see Wales take the 4th spot. This would be a fair reflection of their standing as the best European team - but on results some long way behind the SH triumverate.

While normally this would be only about bragging rights, right now that 4th spot will be critical at the end of the summer when the seedings for RWC 2015 are made.

The rankings are meaningless most of the time, I don't need rankings to tell me who is better than us.

biltongbek wrote:The rankings are meaningless most of the time, I don't need rankings to tell me who is better than us.

I thought only Bryce Lawrence was better than SA

Better in what way mate?

He doesn't play rugby.

He was the only one to defeat SA in RWC11 I thought.

I agree with you over the rankings importance, as I said above. Once every 4 years they are important though - ie when the seedings are done.

That is why Argentina were a top seed for the last WC - and Scotland unseeded. Teams cannot assume that being outside the top 4 or top 8 will not hinder their chances.

For example the way the current rankings are (yes I know they wioll not stay that way) England could be in a group with Argentina and Tonga while Wales could get NZ and Scotland.

Well done England 4th in the world, all you need to do now is join the Tri nations teams your clearly far to good for us up here

viewtothegym wrote:Well done England 4th in the world, all you need to do now is join the Tri nations teams your clearly far to good for us up here

3 wins from 5 games against the quad nations for England....1 in 11 for Wales.

I guess your eright there is only one Northern hemisphere side that should consider breaking away.....

For the archive:

6Ns round 4:

Sat 10th Mar 12
14:30 Wales v Italy Millennium Stadium
17:00 Ireland v Scotland Aviva Stadium

Sun 11th Mar 12
15:00 France v England Stade de France

Current standings:

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 91.43
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.99
3(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.34
4(3) FRANCE 84.20
5(5) WALES 82.62
6(6) ENGLAND 81.34
7(8) IRELAND 80.30
8(7) ARGENTINA 80.28
9(9) TONGA 76.63
10(10) SAMOA 75.81
11(11) SCOTLAND 74.94
12(12) ITALY 73.33
13(13) CANADA 72.92

Possible outcomes:

wal (on 82.62 points) at home -vs- ita (on 73.33 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'winner' overtake 'loser'?

If wal win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.62 73.33 No
If wal win by more than 15 0.000 82.62 73.33 No
If result is a draw 1.000 81.62 74.33 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 80.62 75.33 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 79.62 76.33 No

ire (on 80.30 points) at home -vs- sco (on 74.94 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'winner' overtake 'loser'?

If ire win by 1-15 points 0.164 80.46 74.78 No
If ire win by more than 15 0.246 80.55 74.69 No
If result is a draw 0.836 79.46 75.78 No
If sco win by 1-15 points 1.836 78.46 76.78 No
If sco win by more than 15 2.754 77.55 77.69 Yes

fra (on 84.20 points) at home -vs- eng (on 81,34 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'winner' overtake 'loser'?

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.414 84.61 80.93 No
If fra win by more than 15 0.621 84.82 80.72 No
If result is a draw 0.586 83.61 81.93 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 1.586 82.61 82.93 Yes
If eng win by more than 15 2.379 81.82 83.72 Yes

5th and final software predictions are now available at OP/top of page.

There are some unexploded anti-personnel devices in there if you look.

It's interesting that if England and Wales both win by under 15 points, England remain above Wales.

However if they both win by more than 15 points, then Wales go above England.

Strange quirk of the weighting system and possibly a consequence of how close the teams in 4/5/6th are in terms of points.

wales cant get better than 5th in the ranking from this 6n.

we only take points of higher placed teams. france are now below wales so wales cant get any higher.

seems odd that the team to come second (presumably england) can finish the tournament at a higher rank than the (possible) grand slam winners.

we still need a win over aus to climb the rankings.

If England lose and we win the we go above them dogtooth

RubyGuby wrote:If England lose and we win the we go above them dogtooth

right'o.

although, england will probably win their match, i fancy.

5th place is as high as wales have ever been i think. i should be pretty happy with it.

dogtooth wrote:
seems odd that the team to come second (presumably england) can finish the tournament at a higher rank than the (possible) grand slam winners.

Why is it so easy to presume it's England that will win? If Ireland beat England, a team above them in the rankings - where does Ireland go?

dogtooth wrote:wales cant get better than 5th in the ranking from this 6n.

we only take points of higher placed teams. france are now below wales so wales cant get any higher.

seems odd that the team to come second (presumably england) can finish the tournament at a higher rank than the (possible) grand slam winners.

we still need a win over aus to climb the rankings.

not really, dogtooth, if you take into account where the two teams started and how they will have played home and away relative to their respective track records?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

dogtooth wrote:wales cant get better than 5th in the ranking from this 6n.

we only take points of higher placed teams. france are now below wales so wales cant get any higher.

seems odd that the team to come second (presumably england) can finish the tournament at a higher rank than the (possible) grand slam winners.

we still need a win over aus to climb the rankings.

not really, dogtooth, if you take into account where the two teams started and how they will have played home and away relative to their respective track records?

dogtooth, for a start you have to consider where the respective teams were at the start of the Six Nations.

England was at 81.58
Wales was at 79.61

remember England only lost to France in the QF, whereas wales although beating Ireland to get to the semi final, lost to France and OZ (twice).

yes. i foolishy assumed, some weeks ago, that wales would finish 4th in world standings.

still, i am happy with 5th, and looking forward to claiming a trophy on the weekend (fingers crossed).

On present form, dogtooth, you should only climb from there

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:On present form, dogtooth, you should only climb from there

hope so. a couple of wins in aus could put us 3rd. although i dont expect wales to win more than 1 test in aus.

If France can beat Wales then they'll be favourites for 4th place by the end of the summer in my opinion. They have 2 games in Argentina who don't have a bad ranking themselves.

England, Wales and Ireland can seriously look at taking some rankings points if they can get a series win against one of the big three. I think Ireland might struggle in New Zealand, although I think all 3 teams would be very unhappy with a 3-0 loss.

Just noticed Scotland have a test against Australia and one against the Cook Islands? Resisting jibes about Scotland, it does seem to be a meaningless test.

robbo277 wrote:If France can beat Wales then they'll be favourites for 4th place by the end of the summer in my opinion. They have 2 games in Argentina who don't have a bad ranking themselves.

England, Wales and Ireland can seriously look at taking some rankings points if they can get a series win against one of the big three. I think Ireland might struggle in New Zealand, although I think all 3 teams would be very unhappy with a 3-0 loss.

Just noticed Scotland have a test against Australia and one against the Cook Islands? Resisting jibes about Scotland, it does seem to be a meaningless test.

It may be meaningless in your eyes but for the players and inhabitants of the Cook Islands it is a huge game. It would be so amazing if the bigger teams could go to a PI island and play a game. I feel they really do not get a fair go and the SH big boys could get their fingers out and get over there.

Woodstock wrote:

robbo277 wrote:If France can beat Wales then they'll be favourites for 4th place by the end of the summer in my opinion. They have 2 games in Argentina who don't have a bad ranking themselves.

England, Wales and Ireland can seriously look at taking some rankings points if they can get a series win against one of the big three. I think Ireland might struggle in New Zealand, although I think all 3 teams would be very unhappy with a 3-0 loss.

Just noticed Scotland have a test against Australia and one against the Cook Islands? Resisting jibes about Scotland, it does seem to be a meaningless test.

It may be meaningless in your eyes but for the players and inhabitants of the Cook Islands it is a huge game. It would be so amazing if the bigger teams could go to a PI island and play a game. I feel they really do not get a fair go and the SH big boys could get their fingers out and get over there.

But there will be absolutely no contest to the game. Surely it would be better to send a team to Samoa who can really compete and can benefit from having a home test against a developed rugby nation?

robbo277 wrote:

Woodstock wrote:

robbo277 wrote:If France can beat Wales then they'll be favourites for 4th place by the end of the summer in my opinion. They have 2 games in Argentina who don't have a bad ranking themselves.

England, Wales and Ireland can seriously look at taking some rankings points if they can get a series win against one of the big three. I think Ireland might struggle in New Zealand, although I think all 3 teams would be very unhappy with a 3-0 loss.

Just noticed Scotland have a test against Australia and one against the Cook Islands? Resisting jibes about Scotland, it does seem to be a meaningless test.

It may be meaningless in your eyes but for the players and inhabitants of the Cook Islands it is a huge game. It would be so amazing if the bigger teams could go to a PI island and play a game. I feel they really do not get a fair go and the SH big boys could get their fingers out and get over there.

But there will be absolutely no contest to the game. Surely it would be better to send a team to Samoa who can really compete and can benefit from having a home test against a developed rugby nation?

So Samoa are not a developed rugby nation themselves!! Really? It would not surprise me if Samoa beat Scotland.

It is not about going into every game with the intention of thumping the opposition off the park with mammoth scores. Scotland could use their 2nd XV or a mix. It is about giving these teams a go and putting much needed cash into their bank account to develop further.

I've been to the ground at Avarua in the Cook Islands. There happened to be an Australian team (forget who it was but it was just some average school or club side) touring at the time.

It was a ferocious match and I'll never forget the atmosphere there. When an Oz player got smashed in a tackle and spat out the back of the ruck, there were roars of delight followed by this high-pitched 'war cry'? It was a hair raising experience... spine chilling stuff. However, all of the noise was accompanied by big warm smiles from the locals. Especially at the end of the game which the CI team won. That was back in 1998.

I think it's very brave of Scotland to be touring the PI nations. They should prevail in every match there - you'd think... but the memories of that game will be with me for a very long time. Beware the 'friendly' ambush lads!

To be honest, lads, after the disaster of the 6Ns for Scotland, I think we'll be taking a fairly young squad down under this summer, with a view to bringing on the next generation. It's not going to be about Scotland getting results, more about seeing if we can progress players like Weir, Harley, Welsh, Scott, plus the now more established ones like Hogg, Rennie, Denton, Gray, Jones, etc., and of course unleashing MacVisser!!

Is the Cook islands game a proper test or just a tour fixture played by "Scotland XV"
They arent serious opposition, its no disrespect.

A three test series against Fiji, Samoa and Aus though seems spot on. All 3 are loseable, but also they have a vague chance of getting positive results. Its really depressing go through every set of summer tours and Ais waiting to see how big the losing margin will be as an England fan, I wish we'd grab the odd test against a Psiland tream too.

SA, NZ and Tonga in the Autuimn is a good balance for Scotland too.

I think they have an excellent fixture list with a chance of picking up some wins but solid challenges throughout.

PSW, I think we'd need to win every one of those (excl. ABs) plus have some other countries' results go in our favour to make it into the top 8 by the time the RWC pools are drawn tho?

So... England's +15 means?

Think it means England stay 4th? never get the rankings,just when i think i have figured out how they work they move the teams around all over the place.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:PSW, I think we'd need to win every one of those (excl. ABs) plus have some other countries' results go in our favour to make it into the top 8 by the time the RWC pools are drawn tho?

I hate to pour oil over troubled waters - but with the draw taking place prior to the AIs, it is not impossible for Scotland to fall out of the top 12!

On a quick decko

Changes are:

Italy overtake Scotland into 11th
Argentina overtake Ireland into 7th.

LondonTiger wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:PSW, I think we'd need to win every one of those (excl. ABs) plus have some other countries' results go in our favour to make it into the top 8 by the time the RWC pools are drawn tho?

I hate to pour oil over troubled waters - but with the draw taking place prior to the AIs, it is not impossible for Scotland to fall out of the top 12!

Quite.
the fixtures they have give them an excellent chance to pick up enough points to ensure that their 12th place is secure, rather than a fixture list containing entirely loseable games.

Its time to accept that Scotland are not a top 8 team, and that not being in the top 8 isnt an utter disgrace anymore. The IRB now classifies everyone down to the USA as the top sides, the old tier 1 concept is long dead.

viewtothegym wrote:Think it means England stay 4th? never get the rankings,just when i think i have figured out how they work they move the teams around all over the place.

Yep.

biltongbek wrote:The rankings are meaningless most of the time, I don't need rankings to tell me who is better than us.

And this from Statto Man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I have converted you from the Dark Side.Excellent.

you taught me well kimosabi.

Stats are useless.

biltongbek wrote: you taught me well kimosabi.

Stats are useless.

That's my boy,Tonto!!!!!!!!!!!!