Who'll win the Heineken Cup?

I think its down to Toulouse, Leinster and Clermont. If Leicester Tigers can get a favourable draw in the knockouts they'll come into the mix too.

What you reckon - who's gonna be champs in Twickers this May? And will the later start to the cup affect many teams?

Right now I would make Leinster favourites as they have the pedigree and what looks to be the easiest group. They are the one team I would put money on to get a home 1/4 final - and we have seen just how important home advantage can be at QF & SF stages.

Clermont are my dark horse of the tournament.

I'm also hoping that Tiggers will be in the mix somewhere.

I think an English team will win it. I will not change my mind on that matter unless of course they are all knocked out!

Leinster are of course the favourites but if they have to take on an English side at Twickers.....

I’d love to be more optimistic but I don’t think Leinster have got the strength in the pack that they did last year. Hines and Wright as massive losses, I’d love to be proved wrong by Toner and Hagan but sadly I don’t think we have it in us this year. We will possibly make the QFs, if we get a home draw then who knows. I was probably less confident last year though!

I think it'll be a French side to be honest.

Or maybe there'll be a bloody miracle and the Ospreys get a look in...

Mickado I am surprised you are not confident. You have arguably the weakest group in the HC. You are the defending HC champions. The route to last season's HC was probably one of if not the toughest in terms of oppposition.

You dispatched the 3 best English sides (IMO) and 3 of the best French sides again in my opinion - including the former English and French champions as well as the current ones.

Not many sides can stop you.

Cari seriously which French side?

An English side has always won the HC when the final has been played at Twickenham.

Cardiff Blues

(well, we will claim the moral victory when Warburton gets red carded in the semi final and we go on to lose by 1pt to Toulouse)

Clermont have the personnel and the mentality to do it.
They have a brutal pack and sparkling backline - what's not to like.

The jury is still out on Leinster until they get their internationals back and playing. Mickado - am surprised at you...

Beshocked - Not sure - it'd be Toulouse/Clermont I think, looking at their pools. I'm just guessing though, I haven't looked in detail. Also, I'm not familiar with English and French rugby much, cause I don't watch enough of it.

Wales606 -...another penalty shoot out?

Cari the thing is I think Toulouse and Clermont have two of the toughest pools.

The English sides to have a storming HC in my opinion.

Maybe my spirits have just been damped by the world cup and the solid but not GREAT start to the league campaign.

Last year was special, but so often a coach wins something in their first year and the expectations become too high when the honeymoon is over. We’re recruited well over the summer with an eye on the long term, but that might not bear fruit as soon as we might want it to.

i agree with mick

we lost hines and wright and have rightfully backed some irish youth in hagan and toner,

If we lost cullen in the 2nd row we would not be great there.

We might not win it this year, semi i think for us, but if toner and hagan and cronin, came get a years solid high profile h cup rugby along with some of our young backs, we will be set well for a while

Mickado wrote:I’d love to be more optimistic but I don’t think Leinster have got the strength in the pack that they did last year. Hines and Wright as massive losses, I’d love to be proved wrong by Toner and Hagan but sadly I don’t think we have it in us this year. We will possibly make the QFs, if we get a home draw then who knows. I was probably less confident last year though!

+1 Should never have let Wagga go

beshocked wrote:Cari the thing is I think Toulouse and Clermont have two of the toughest pools.

Oddly, I actually believe that works in their favour, and against Leinster, who arguably have a softer pool

As, you're dead right there. Wagga was massive for us last year, I would say he was underrated but everyone in Leinster knew how important he was.

Schmidt did want to keep him but unfortunatley the IRFU would only offer him a 1 year contract, he was offered 3 at Clermont, smart move. Fantastic player. Delighted he got his first try in such a massive game.

A tough pool can be the making of a cup campaign. There's no way we would have had the mental fortitude to beat Leicester, Toulouse and NH without the horrible pool we went through.

Heino is very difficult to win twice in a row and without hines we are much weaker...if i was betting money i would opt for toylouse/clermont...
Additionally i'm not sure how much bod and darcy have left in the tank , would love mc fadden to be giben more of a chance at centre ...he was player of the u21 world cup a couple of years ago i think this is a very important season for him to step up and challenge (darcy) for a regular spot...

dublin hold onto your money. I reckon at least one of those won't make the quarter finals.

Anyone know for the odds for an English team winning? I am awfully tempted if it's something like 4-1.

Cari wrote:

Wales606 -...another penalty shoot out?

Don't remind me ...poor Martyn.

Beshocked:

English Team to Win: 7/5

French Team to Win: 15/8

Irish Team to Win: 13/5

Welsh Team to Win: 12/1

Scottish Team to Win: 80/1

Italian Team to Win: 200/1

I wouln't worry too much about league form for the HCup, if league form was a real barometer Saracens would have done alot better last season and Quins would be looking to cruise it.

As it is i can see us not making it out of the pool.

My bets for the winner? Leicester, Saints or Saracens.

I reckon both will... toulouse will beat all at home and probably connacht and gloucester away
cand i reckon clermont will win all three at home anf aironi and ulster away..

Gonna back Northampton. Finally have some good strength in depth this year. They are gonna be storming this year.

Connaght!!

Seriously though I think Leinster and Toulouse would be the front runners, Northampyon will be up their too. Its between those three imo.

Clermont look to have a great squad this year and Tolouse are always in and around the knock out stages, Sarries should and I think will make the semis but I'm not sure about my beloved Tigers yet. We need to see just who comes back from injury before the first game vs Ulster and the two games vs Clermont as taking on either with a midfield made up of two winger isn't a great idea.

Leinster have lost Hines and not really brought in a nasty lock to replace him which is I think an error as the Leinster pack was so great last year because they were so brutal. Munster look weak at the minute but that is normally a sure sign that someone is in for a kicking at Thomond Park. Looks to be very close this season.

Interesting fact, the only team to retain the HEC is.... Leicester Tigers.

red stag thanks. Disappointing.

Yappysnap I think the opposition in the pools is a lot more important!

When have you got to play Toulouse? If you and Gloucester beat Toulouse at home you got to believe!

Dublin I like it how you casually write off Gloucester. They are awesome at home.

Flankertye seriously?

Why are Northampton so highly touted? Yes they are finalists. So were Biarritz the season before...

Strong first XV but little behind that in my opinion.

beshocked wrote:dublin hold onto your money. I reckon at least one of those won't make the quarter finals.

Anyone know for the odds for an English team winning? I am awfully tempted if it's something like 4-1.

really? Toulouse have won hc 4 times and their recordover last 4 years speaks for itself
2011 sf
2010 winners
2009 qf
2008 final
clermont were unlucky not to qualify for knockout stages ast year and they made the qf the previous yr where they shoud have beaten leinster at the rds. this year they wil fancy 3 home wins ( ulster, aironi, leicester) and away wins at aironi and ulster....they are a very strong team especialy at home....i also fancy them to get a bonus point at welford road.

I agree re: Northampton. I think they are a poor enough team who had an easy run in last year. Yes yes I know Munster aren't in great shakes this season probably but Saints aren't in the same class as others.

Depends how Saints settle this year now they have all their internationals back. The acquisition of Ryan Lamb seems to be a very good one as he is getting the backs moving and in May they have an excellent utility back to give their midfield another option. Up front they are the same but with another top scrummaging prop in PDJ available. They are more than a match for anybody on their day and I'd expect them to reach the knock out stages but how far they get will depend on whether they can vary their game plan as they were a little found out towards the end of last season.

Toulouse have to take on Quins who will be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on the French aristocrats. Quins did afterall beat Munster away in the Amlin and are currently top of the AP.

Gloucester lose very few games at home.

I don't think Toulouse will find it as easy as you might think.

Clermont have two tough away games.

Aren't Ulster very good at home? Leicester are a very tough nut to crack.

Red stag a little harsh I think. I wouldn't call them favourites but their first XV is strong.

Who are you tipping?

For Tigers, to be honest, with their position at the moment in the league, I am afraid by the end of the season they will be burned out as it is going to take an almighty effort to get back up to the top 4 and the first team will probably have to play most games to do this. Add to that a very tough group in the HC and I just don't know if we will have the legs for it (though the injuries to Allen, Manu, Youngs etc might prove a blessing in disguise if we can make it through the time without them and still be in touch in both competitions)

Im tipping:

Pool 1 - Munster (but only just)

Pool 2 - London Irish

Pool 3 - Leinster

Pool 4 - Clermont

Pool 5 - Sarcens

Pool 6 - Toulouse

Best Runner Up: Leicester Tigers, Ospreys

I would say that it comes down to home advantage and I'd be backing Clermont, Toulouse and Leinster. If Tigers top their group they will be tough to beat at home.

if munster get a home quarter they could be a dark horse. Not going in as one of the favourites could work to their advantage. Still a serious team in Thomond park.

Northampton a poor enough team though red stag? i cannot abide by that at all. They have very good players around the park and a serious scrum. Also now appear to have more depth. Poor teams dont get to a HC final unbeaten and lead at half time. you will do well to top the group ahead of them

Leinster have the ability but will miss Hines. If they have the same fire in the belly we will get semis at least.

Surely one of the Welsh regions will grow a pair and get to the semis. Llanelli maybe. good young side

Toulouse for me this year

OK yea thats a bit of an exaggeration. They are good but nowhere near how many perceive them to be IMO. I am genuinely more worried about Castres and Scarlets.

You can't just dismiss Saints!
They had a very strong first XV last year, now they have a good squad.
For many of their players, that was their first taste of HC rugby. They will at least make the semi's.

Saracens seem a bit underrated: they have the easiest pool (considering current biarritz horrendous form) and should get a home QF after which anything can happen and with a final at home, they would be big favourites.

read somewhere that they would play Biarritz in cape town : is that confirmed?

Yes whocares it is confirmed. The match against Biarritz will be on the 12/13/14th January at Capetown.

I am of course biased but yes purely because of our HC group we could well be in the mix. A home quarter would set up things nicely and of course we have played plenty of times at Twickenham.

I think we are about 7th favourites which is fair enough.

Red stag fair enough if that's how you feel.

The way I see it

Pool 1:Northampton

Pool 2:Racing Metro

Pool 3: Leinster

Pool 4:Leicester

Pool 5:Saracens

Pool 6:Toulouse

Best runners up:Clermont and Ospreys

Beshocked - they aren't bad predictions. I have a feeling L.Irish will step it up in Pool 2. As for Pool 1, yes I don't rate Saints highly however Munster aren;'t the force of old. I won;t be surprised if we fail to make it out of pool.

red stag your predictions aren't bad either. I think between us we have named all the likely contenders to top the pool and be best runners up.

Some pools in my opinion are really tough to call, particularly the ones we differed upon. Maybe my English bias comes out. It's easier to back clubs you know more about.

I do genuinely think it will be a good HC for English clubs. History would point to this.

The trouble with Sarries IMO is their inability to score tries. I think in contrast the Ospreys are a team who tend to either win well or lose. They aren't really ones for grinding out wins. The head to head between these two will be the clincher. Biarritz are in free fall in the Top 14 at the minute - they have some key men coming back but they aren't the team they once were. Treviso are improving but are still suspect.

Saints I just feel are over hyped in the grand scheme of things. I felt that an easy draw (Edinburgh, Castres, Bues and then home matches against Ulster and Pepignan) was the reason they did so well and the media machine was fuelled when it saw young Englishmen succeeding. They really don't worry me all that much. Munster aren't in great shakes either so Pool 1 will be interesting.

Im backing Clermont to throw the shackles off this season. Its sad to think such a talented team is forever the dark horse.

red stag I do agree. Saracens have to realistically target 5 wins and pick up at least 2 bonus points. It's certainly something we are capable of.

I really want Saracens to start out with intent to get the try bonus point against Treviso in our first HC match. We have to simply go for it.

Saints did benefit from a relatively easy ride. Certainly in comparison to Leinster! Still they are a decent side. Saints vs Munster will be an interesting tussle.

Saracens and Toulouse would be my tips.

For some reason I can't get excited about the Irish teams this year, but I'm sure they'll come good in this competition as they usually do.

Scarlets with the North Monster scoring tries for fun we wont need a strong pack

Leinster, Toulouse and Clermont should be favourites. I share my fellow Leinster supporters suspicions that we'll be slightly weaker this year. But last years Heineken Cup win was one of the most convincing ever. So we'll still be up there. I can see us getting a home quarter and then a semi. If we're drawn away for the semi, Clermont or Toulouse would beat us. A home semi and we could make another final.

I agree that Northampton had an easy enough run last year. And Leinster did blow them away in the 2nd half. But they got to final on merit and were superb for 40 minutes against Leinster. I think the English teams could do well this year. And if one makes the final, Twickenham will be an advantage. But I'm not sure if any yet have the class and pedigree of Leinster, Clermont and Toulouse. I think the salary cap is handicapping the English teams in Europe.

I think Clermont are due a bit of luck this year. If they get a home quarter and semi they have the team to win.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Leinster, Toulouse and Clermont should be favourites. I share my fellow Leinster supporters suspicions that we'll be slightly weaker this year. But last years Heineken Cup win was one of the most convincing ever. So we'll still be up there. I can see us getting a home quarter and then a semi. If we're drawn away for the semi, Clermont or Toulouse would beat us. A home semi and we could make another final.

I agree that Northampton had an easy enough run last year. And Leinster did blow them away in the 2nd half. But they got to final on merit and were superb for 40 minutes against Leinster. I think the English teams could do well this year. And if one makes the final, Twickenham will be an advantage. But I'm not sure if any yet have the class and pedigree of Leinster, Clermont and Toulouse. I think the salary cap is handicapping the English teams in Europe.

I think Clermont are due a bit of luck this year. If they get a home quarter and semi they have the team to win.

I could just as easily say that Northampton blew away Leinster for 40 mins. Saints are a very good team, very strong upfront with a mobile backrow and an addition backrower in Lawes with the way he plays. Decent enough half backs (if we had someone like Evans here we would be a seriously good team) which is an area of weakness. May has looked good so far and offers something different to the bash of clarke and downey of last year. Back 3 is looking very good and dangerous, Artymiev, Ashton and Foden are 3 very dangerous runners and proven try scorers. As has been noted the squad has also been improved on last year.

I think alot depends on the 1st game at Thomond, if we win that we will kick on and top the group i believe.

sorry i just noticed that you gave credit to saints first 40, didnt realise it, hence the perhaps over the top response?

Beating Munster at Thomond? If you can do that, you probably deserve the title. It's not something that happens too often.

Scarlets v Ulster final. Too close to call.

Glas a du wrote:Scarlets v Ulster final. Too close to call.

The title was Heineken CUP, not BOWL...

I'm on strong pain killers.

red_stag wrote:I agree re: Northampton. I think they are a poor enough team who had an easy run in last year. Yes yes I know Munster aren't in great shakes this season probably but Saints aren't in the same class as others.

Saints have a strong first 15 up there with the best. They beat Perpignan convincingly in the Ko stages last year and came close to winning the final. They lack depth that's all.

I fancy Saints to beat Munster this weekend.