Munster v Scarlets - Sunday

Keith Earls has been included in the 29 strong Munster squad named this morning for the Heineken Cup round four game at Thomond Park Stadium on Sunday (12.45).

Earls came through the squad training session in UL yesterday and if he does likewise in tomorrow's run could be a contender for a place in the match day squad with Tony McGahan adding "We've to wait and see, he's been out of action for three to four weeks, so we'll have to see how he gets on in training for the rest of the week."

Munster Squad (29): Marcus Horan, Wian du Preez, Stephen Archer, John Hayes, BJ Botha, Denis Fogarty, Damien Varley, Donncha O'Callaghan, Donnacha Ryan, Paul O'Connell, Mick O'Driscoll, Ian Nagle, Billy Holland, Denis Leamy, Niall Ronan, James Coughlan, Tommy O'Donnell, Tomas O'Leary, Conor Murray, Ian Keatley, Ronan O'Gara, Johne Murphy, Denis Hurley, Scott Deasy, Simon Zebo, Will Chambers, Lifeimi Mafi, Danny Barnes, Keith Earls.

ooo didn't see this was here, good thing I checked before starting a new post.

Tis a risk to be including Earls I think. Strong squad there though.

I think Earls is better off playing against Moseley and gathering fitness in that game and in the few Pro12 games between this fixture and the one against Castres. He's shown time and time again that he needs a good few games to get back into form after an injury layoff. If he is named in the matchday squad (most likely at 23) it'll be interesting to see who'd miss out. I'd imagine it'd be between Barnes and Chambers, probably the former despite an improved showing last weekend.

Zebo will have his work cut out for him against North. ROG too for that matter if Scarlets persist with the same tactics as last week.

I think Scarlets will be a much improved side compared to what we saw last weekend. Munster will have improved too though and they'll also be in Thomond Park. For the Scarlets it'll be about taking every available opportunity and silencing the crowd early - no mean feat.

For Munster, if they keep it tight and try to beat the Scarlets up front then it's hard to see them losing. Throwing it around as they did in the first 20 minutes of the game in PyS will hand the game to the Scarlets.

The composition of the second row and backrow of Munster will be interesting.

4. Ryan
5. POC
6. Leamy
7. Ronan
8. Coughlan

The above would be the most obvious and would be consistent with the selections so far. On the other hand, McGahan might opt for brute force and select Ryan at 6 while still having Leamy's impact off the bench.

4. DOC
5. POC
6. Ryan
7. Ronan
8. Coughlan
19. Leamy

Whichever pack is chosen I'd be confident that they can get the better of the Scarlets 8 given most recent evidence.

In the backs it's advantage Scarlets. Murray had a poor game on Saturday but I don't think he should be dropped as a result. He learns from his mistakes quickly and shouldn't be made pay for one poor game.

ROG is pure class but will be targeted once again by the Scarlets hard running backs, especially by North.

In the centres, I think Mafi had an excellent game and is gauranteed the 12 jersey. Who lines up next to him is the burning question. Personally I'd go with Barnes as Chambers had a poor game and was directly responsible for Shingler's try. Chambers does offer impact off the bench though and that's where I'd put him if I was TMG.

The back three is pretty much as-you-were. Mainly due to lack of options but I thought they did quite well as a unit on Saturday.

Any Scarlets fan care to give an analysis on the team that they expect Nigel Davies to choose and how they need to go about beating Munster?

I don't think our team will be too much changed
Something like:

1. Iestyn, 2. Smiler, 3, Manu (Rhys T has a slight calf strain), 4. Timani, 5. Welch (he needs to up his game), 6. McCusker, 7. Edwards, 8. Morgan

9. Davies, 10. Rhys/Stevo, 11. Lamont, 12. Foxy, 13. Williams, 14. George (fingers crossed!), 15. Sanjay/Rhys.


There are big questions being asked whether we do stick with Rhys at 10 for htis, as a lot thought Stevo looked a lot better then him when he came on and Rhys is by far the best 15 available to us at the moment (although Sanjay has been brilliant).

Shingler is struggling to shake of a toe injury so doubt he'll start, which is a blow, but bringing Edwards in might mean that we secure quicker ball at the breakdown, even if he does bring the added risk of giving away penalties.

Too often on Saturday did we let Munster swarm us at the breakdown, so he'll be key to stopping this.

I also think our backs will be a lot better this weekend. They only had 2 days to train together as a full squad last week, so with a weeks preperation there should be a big improvement.

This game is going to be just as close to call I think. Will be disappointed if we don't get a LBP, and will be hoping for the win. We are definitely capable of it, tis just whether we prepare ourselves mentally for it.

MMC wrote:

Any Scarlets fan care to give an analysis on the team that they expect Nigel Davies to choose and how they need to go about beating Munster?

15 Liam Williams
14 George North
13 S Williams
12 J Davies
11 Lamont
10 Rhys Priestland
9 G Davies
8 Ben Morgan
7 Mcusker or Edwards if Shinger not fit
6 Shingler if fit
5 Timani
4 Welch
3 Rhys Thomas if fit. If not we are in trouble.
2 Rees
1 Iestyn Thomas

Scarlets need to play the exact game they did against Castres. Win the scrum, keep the lineouts but when they get the ball to the backs - try something. If it's on go for it.

It's a biggish pitch, they are misisng backs - run at them.

O'Gara will ping it to the corners, so the Scarlets also need to defend like they never have before and try and try to contest the mauls.

Oh and they've got to get better at cheating.

I think the Polish minus 760 degrees centigrade effect should be coming to an end right about.....'looking at my Rolex'..... now!


Or is that...is that damn.... is that piece of s*&^ of a Rolex stopped????

Chunky Norwich wrote:

MMC wrote:

Any Scarlets fan care to give an analysis on the team that they expect Nigel Davies to choose and how they need to go about beating Munster?

15 Liam Williams
14 George North
13 S Williams
12 J Davies
11 Lamont
10 Rhys Priestland
9 G Davies
8 Ben Morgan
7 Mcusker or Edwards if Shinger not fit
6 Shingler if fit
5 Timani
4 Welch
3 Rhys Thomas if fit. If not we are in trouble.
2 Rees
1 Iestyn Thomas

Scarlets need to play the exact game they did against Castres. Win the scrum, keep the lineouts but when they get the ball to the backs - try something. If it's on go for it.

It's a biggish pitch, they are misisng backs - run at them.

O'Gara will ping it to the corners, so the Scarlets also need to defend like they never have before and try and try to contest the mauls.

Oh and they've got to get better at cheating.

I agree with everything except for the bit in bold. I was hoping we could leave that out of this discussion as it's been done ad nauseum for the last few days.

Just going back to the point you made about the fitness of Rhys Thomas, I think that your chances of winning the scrum battle would fizzle away considerably if Manu has to play. I think the Scarlets need to avoid conceeding points from scrums as opposed to actually trying to win them. They do have a side to run rings around teams as they've shown in the past. The last thing they need to be doing is trying to "hammer the hammer", so to speak.

Agree with you MMC. We used our scrums as a defensive weapon superbly against both Castres and Saints, and we need to try and do that again. Am really hoping Rhys T is fit, otherwise we will be starting with Manu, with the possibility of Edwards or Jones on the bench. None are bad, but none are brilliant either. We need to start playing to our strengths more instead of trying to nullify the opposition. It worked against Saints and Castres so not sure why we're trying to hcange it now.

Morgan and Welch need to carry a lot more. They gave us so much go forward in the first two rounds but failed at this on Saturday and it showed. Big improvements needed.

MMC wrote:

I agree with everything except for the bit in bold. I was hoping we could leave that out of this discussion as it's been done ad nauseum for the last few days.

Just going back to the point you made about the fitness of Rhys Thomas, I think that your chances of winning the scrum battle would fizzle away considerably if Manu has to play. I think the Scarlets need to avoid conceeding points from scrums as opposed to actually trying to win them. They do have a side to run rings around teams as they've shown in the past. The last thing they need to be doing is trying to "hammer the hammer", so to speak.

You can't talk about a game involving Munster without analysing the breakdown and invariably - who gets away with what. I guarantee you that come Sunday afternoon there'll be a contentious refereeing decision we are discussing about the breakdown - maybe involving a yellow card.

But for now I'll respect your wishes.

Manu isn't a tighthead. Neither is Phil John. Rhodri Jones of Peter Edwards are the next best. I would be tempted to have Edwards on the bench but if Iestyn goes down injured it's a problem - having said that - there's a 23rd man in the HCup. Shove Edwards as no. 23.

I can see the merit in having Jon Edwards at 7 - our speed to the breakdown wasn't great last Saturday. But both Shingler and Mcusker played well. I wouldn't drop either.

It's not cheating if you're not getting pinged..... Munster should win hopefully by more than 7. It will be a test and an improved performance is needed to win. It should be a cracker and I'm looking forward to watching it on Monday! (won't get to see it live, it's replayed on TG4 on Sunday and I think they put it up on their site.)

I wouldn't drop Shings either Chunky, but I honestly don't think he'll be fit. Toe injuries are difficult to shake off, and we've got to remember that we've got the O's and Dragons coming up after this as well. Edwards is more then a capable replacement for Shings, so if he isn't fully fit, don't play him. (imo anyway )

Thomond wrote:It's not cheating if you're not getting pinged

Yes, I think that's exactly what Peter Stringer told the ref after Neil Back had handled the ball in the scrum.

Thomond wrote:It's not cheating if you're not getting pinged..... Munster should win hopefully by more than 7. It will be a test and an improved performance is needed to win. It should be a cracker and I'm looking forward to watching it on Monday! (won't get to see it live, it's replayed on TG4 on Sunday and I think they put it up on their site.)

Hmm. Not sure they do Thom. As far as I know Sky has rights over the footage and will only allow it to be used by other networks in one-off highlights shows.

Chunky,
I'm happy to have a discussion with you about the breakdown and the referee. They'll play a huge role, as they do in every game and to not discuss them would be remiss. I think we can do it in such a way that doesn't ruin the thread.

I for one will be very interested in how Pearson differs from Poite in how he interprets things. Nigel Davies might regret the comments he made in the media after the game as it's more likely to make Pearson look more closely at Scarlets than it is Munster.

At the end of the day though, teams need to concentrate on playing to their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses. Referees aren't the ones dropping passes or missing kicks, that's purely on the players.

Incidentally, I thought that Jones at 10 and Priestland 15 looked far more threatening than the way the game started. I can't see Priestland having as bad a game as he did 2 weekends in a row but I think I'd be happier to see him starting at than at 15 from a Munster point of view. What are Scarlets fans views on this?

Chunky, I bet the ref responded with "we're not in Thomond Park" Munster did not deserve to win that game and Tigers were deserving winners.
TG4 don't have it on their site, bollix. Do S4C have a highlights show on Sunday?

Chunky, you should have had that book out for the Christmas sales...sports books always do well at Christmas when Grandafathers insist on no more homemade socks!!!

The Cheating Irish - A reflection on the sublime art of Breakdown Mischief

MMC wrote: Nigel Davies might regret the comments he made in the media after the game as it's more likely to make Pearson look more closely at Scarlets than it is Munster.

What a strange comment.

Why on earth would a referee look at one team more than the other? Pearson is blind and once he sees a team struggle in the scrum he will favour the other side all day. He is one of the worst referees I have ever seen.

Incidentally, I thought that Jones at 10 and Priestland 15 looked far more threatening than the way the game started. I can't see Priestland having as bad a game as he did 2 weekends in a row but I think I'd be happier to see him starting at than at 15 from a Munster point of view. What are Scarlets fans views on this?

Liam Williams is a better 15 than Priestland. There's not much to choose between Priestland and Jones - so I don't mind who starst at 10.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

MMC wrote: Nigel Davies might regret the comments he made in the media after the game as it's more likely to make Pearson look more closely at Scarlets than it is Munster.

What a strange comment.

Hardly a strange comment. Davies said that if they can do something illegal that isn't being refereed then they'll do it as well. That's bound to make a referee stand up and pay more attention. If you disagree, fair enough but that's my opinion on it.

Moving on from this now, there's a glaring weakness in Irish teams - the national side and particularly Munster, whereby if you send big big runners at pace through midfield you'll make massive yardage. Morrison for Scotland, Roberts for Wales, there are many more examples. That's how you beat Munster. Quick ball to big runners coming from deep. There's only so long a defence will hold up to that. Munster also have a glaring weakness out wide where Murphy and Zebo can be caught completely out of position (standing far far too narrow). If I was Nigel Davies this is what I'd be looking to do. Scarlets are one of the few teams in the HC that can win a game despite losing the forward battle, provided they play smart rugby.

That's how you beat Munster. Quick ball to big runners coming from deep. There's only so long a defence will hold up to that. Munster also have a glaring weakness out wide where Murphy and Zebo can be caught completely out of position (standing far far too narrow).

Not with Mafi and Chambers in midfield. Our defence was very good last weekend and we have an excellent scramble defence.

Both defences were excellent on the weekend, one mistake from each side led to the tries scored. Scarlets certaintly need to adapt to how they played on Saturday.

DOD - with regards to priestland at 15, I for one wouldn't mind seeing him play there. We played some of our best rugby last season with him at 15 and Stevo at 10. However, we've also seen the expert performance Rhys put in in the 10 shirt away against Saints. He won't play as badly as he did on Saturday again. Add to that Sanjay has slotted in really well in the 15 shirt....got to say really, Scarlets are spoilt for choice as to who they can pick, as all 3 of the players mentioned can do a superb job.

DOD wrote:That's how you beat Munster. Quick ball to big runners coming from deep. There's only so long a defence will hold up to that. Munster also have a glaring weakness out wide where Murphy and Zebo can be caught completely out of position (standing far far too narrow).

Not with Mafi and Chambers in midfield. Our defence was very good last weekend and we have an excellent scramble defence.

True DOD, but I still think there's a weakness there to be exploited. Also, I don't think Chambers will start on Sunday after what was a very quiet game from him. Mafi is a strong tackler but prone to the occasional lapse in concentration and ROG, for all his bravery, does concede yards in the tackle.

Linebreaks are difficult to make against us but if Scarlets offload in the tackle more effectively then I think there are holes there.

For me, we've had problems all season long when teams counterattack and spread the ball wide from the off. Especially following a poorly executed kick. See Ashton's try in the first game for evidence of this.

If we just play keep ball using the forwards then I don't see how Scarlets can beat us, barring a massive improvement in the pack. What worries me though is our decision making at times. We tend to revert to a sort of harem scarem style of rugby when it's really not on at all.

I agree but the only thing I would say is if you look at all the tries we have conceded so far in the HC it has been down to our mistakes rather than the opposition. Which is aa very good sign.

But yeah the harem scarem rugby seems to affect them at times, although they did manage to do it for the whole Pro12 game against the Ospreys.

DOD wrote:That's how you beat Munster. Quick ball to big runners coming from deep. There's only so long a defence will hold up to that. Munster also have a glaring weakness out wide where Murphy and Zebo can be caught completely out of position (standing far far too narrow).

Not with Mafi and Chambers in midfield. Our defence was very good last weekend and we have an excellent scramble defence.

DOD are you saying that is how you beat Munster or disputing not clear.

However I dont agree. Scarlets targeted running at ROG on Sat to absolutely no avail. In fact it became very predictable.

Munster defense this year is absolutely brilliant and as mentioned we have a great scramble defense.

Bottom line is actually think Munster this year are a very difficult team to beat. We are back playing to our traditional beautiful game.

traditional game yes BM, not sure everyone would agree tis beauitful though....

It was me who said that we're vulnerable if big runners come from deep against us BM, DOD was just quoting me.

I stand by what I said though. It's not going to take long for teams to realise that if they run straight into ROG, for example, with a support runner on their shoulder to offload to then they're going to break the line. The Scarlets are in the best position to prove that theory since they're playing us twice in quick succession and will have learned from last week. They actually did the first part well, they just didn't have anyone running trailers off the ball carriers. This is where North can really damage us. That's my opinion at least. I hope I'm wrong.

I think that Munster will expect that and all teams target ROG 99% of the time to no avail. Scarlets seem to get fixated on it for a while in the second half last weekend but it never did them any good and they fell into a trap of playing it narrow.

I dont think its as straight forward as that MMC as for one teams are to preoccupied with trying to run straight through ROG than offloading. Its so predictable at this stage.

Other pluses for Munster are we usually have a wing forward close by defenfing that channel.

Finally Munster are great at slowing the ball down from the ruck so having runners from deep becomes very easy to defend against and almost makes them a target to be smashed.

As an aside I would start Barnes on Sunday. I think he has been very solid in defense and will grow into the role given the opportunity.

BlueMuff wrote:As an aside I would start Barnes on Sunday. I think he has been very solid in defense and will grow into the role given the opportunity.

I agree. A consistent run of games at 13 is what Barnes needs. Do you reckon we'll see Earls played at 13 over the next few months? I wonder if the IRFU will have any say in the matter given that we'll be without BOD for the 6 Nations.

Its a funny with Earls, think I would prefer to see him on the wing and just stay there.

I honestly dont think the IRFU would intervene and insist he plays there.

Ideally my back three would be Earls, Jones and Zebo with Maifi and Barnes in the centre.

Time for some of these lads to given the opportunity at this level and also be given some slack without people condemning them for the odd poor game.

While Barnes is doing ok I prefer Chambers as I think his defense is very good, and with Mafi they look very solid.

I must admit I would prefer Earls in the centre.

BlueMuff wrote:Its a funny with Earls, think I would prefer to see him on the wing and just stay there.

I honestly dont think the IRFU would intervene and insist he plays there.

Ideally my back three would be Earls, Jones and Zebo with Maifi and Barnes in the centre.

Time for some of these lads to given the opportunity at this level and also be given some slack without people condemning them for the odd poor game.

I'm not so sure about that. Paddy Wallace was told to play 10 for Ulster last season because we weren't bringing a third OH to the world cup. We don't have any outside centre in sublime form right now so I think it's perfectly reasonable to think the IRFU will tell Munster to play him there for a few games at least. Like you, I hope they don't though. I think he's a far better winger!

Earls is too lightweight to play 13, remember the game against England in the summer, I'd have said long-term Ireland should look at Neville Spence at 13 and Fitzgerald at 12, or vice-versa. Those 2 always impress when I've seen them.

I'm not sure Fitzgerald and Spence would combine well together. But I definitely agree Fitz best position may be in the centres rather than wing. Specifically 13. However there is a lot of competition there, whereas 12 is less so. I can see Earls possibly playing 12 for Munster, with Barnes/Chambers outside him.

Earls looks an out-and-out winger, who else is there currently playing for your regions at 13? Fitzgerald is a brilliant footballer, he's back to almost his best and wasted on the wing, maybe hasn't got the kicking game for 12 but then D'Arcy hasn't either.

I think you should stick to these threads Turkster instead might I just say, as you are talking more sense here and we can actually debate about something properly.

I would say Spence is definitely a 13, while Fitz and Earls don't really know their best positions yet.

oooh, I was just about to post a lovely riposte to your last post on that thread as well, think I'll leave it as it is and just take the hit.


anyway enough of that, I know what you mean about Earls, but I honestly can't see him as a centre, that game against England I think everyone commented beforehand about the mismatch between him and Tuilagi, when you consider that this as big as he's going to get then he just isn't physical enough.

Iestyn is not well and is currently a doubt after training today. Sorry Scarlets fans.

where did you read this rhino? there is nowt on the Scarlets' fans forum! (I just checked, you have me all in a panic!!)

rugbydreamer wrote:where did you read this rhino? there is nowt on the Scarlets' fans forum! (I just checked, you have me all in a panic!!)

They probably don't know yet. Or they are just hoping its man flu. Someone has just described it to me as man flu as well. It might be a bit more than that but he is well medicated and in bed trying to recover i can assure you of that.

oooooh no not Iestyn. He still has over 3 days to recover I guess, but tis really not ideal. We don't want to be starting with Phil John, however good he is, he's no Iestyn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EElqrgk4N0

Rhodri Jones to the rescue, Phil John doesn't cut it at this level.

Rhodri's been playing on the other side of the scrum for us though this season Turkster, and scrummaging isn't the strongest part of his game either.

not exclusively, he's played at loose-head too and he's a very strong scrummager, maybe not so much at tight-head, but at loose head he's very good.

he played loose head for us last season, but this season he seems to have switched over. Will be interesting anyway, just really hope Iestyn will be fit.

I just went on his biog on the Scarlets site and he started at 3 against Leicester and then came on 2 or 3 times as a sub for Phil John at loose head, so he's played both for the Scarlets. I thought they were trying him at 3 mainly for the semi-pro's. After seeing the scrum go backwards at a rate of knots with Phil John on I'd rather Rhodri gets the start. Edit: Of course I'd much prefer Iestyn to be there.

Turkster wrote:oooh, I was just about to post a lovely riposte to your last post on that thread as well, think I'll leave it as it is and just take the hit.


anyway enough of that, I know what you mean about Earls, but I honestly can't see him as a centre, that game against England I think everyone commented beforehand about the mismatch between him and Tuilagi, when you consider that this as big as he's going to get then he just isn't physical enough.

Sorry for seeming harsh, but I just thought you were being very paranoid about the whole welsh thing. I have just been a bit sick of it all recently, but sure. Apologies

If you partner Earls up with a stronger player such as Spence, I don't think there is a problem. The only issue I would have with Earls as a centre is how good his distribution is, and who he is paired up with.

MMC wrote: It's not going to take long for teams to realise that if they run straight into ROG, for example, with a support runner on their shoulder to offload to then they're going to break the line. The Scarlets are in the best position to prove that theory since they're playing us twice in quick succession and will have learned from last week. They actually did the first part well, they just didn't have anyone running trailers off the ball carriers. This is where North can really damage us. That's my opinion at least. I hope I'm wrong.

ROG's been playing HC rugby for 14 years, I'd say its taken teams a very long time to figure it out!!!

Don't think that works as well as you might think. The cover is generally pretty tight around ROG so the recepient of the offload is most likely to get swallowed up too. I think if Scarlett's want to win this they will need to target Zebo and Murphy, they can be exposed if the Scarlett's can deliver enough quick ball.

Red Right wrote:they can be exposed if the Scarlett's can deliver enough quick ball.

They couldn't last week, for one reason or another......... That is key.

Munster will just do exactly what they did on Saturday. And exactly what they've been doing for the last 10 years.

Chunky Norwich wrote:

Red Right wrote:they can be exposed if the Scarlett's can deliver enough quick ball.

They couldn't last week, for one reason or another......... That is key.

Munster will just do exactly what they did on Saturday. And exactly what they've been doing for the last 10 years.

Being very aggressive at the breakdown and flooding men in when there is a sniff of a turnover?

BlueMuff wrote:

Chunky Norwich wrote:

Red Right wrote:they can be exposed if the Scarlett's can deliver enough quick ball.

They couldn't last week, for one reason or another......... That is key.

Munster will just do exactly what they did on Saturday. And exactly what they've been doing for the last 10 years.

Being very aggressive at the breakdown and flooding men in when there is a sniff of a turnover?