Super XV Week 5 Preview and Live Match Thread

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Thu 22 Mar 2012, 11:10 pm

First topic message reminder :

After the opening four weeks of the 2012 Super XV 70% of matches have seen a team win by 7 points or less. Only the Highlanders and the Stormers remain unbeaten, and only the Rebels are yet to win a match.

Points table after round 4
Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Reds	4	3	1	0	0	93	74	19	1	13
2	Brumbies	3	2	1	0	1	65	69	4	1	13
3	Waratahs	4	1	3	0	0	93	83	10	4	8
4	Rebels	3	0	3	0	1	51	79	-28	2	6
5	Western Force	4	1	3	0	0	77	120	-43	1	5

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Highlanders	4	4	0	0	0	87	77	10	0	16
2	Chiefs	4	3	1	0	0	101	78	23	2	14
3	Hurricanes	4	2	2	0	0	119	105	14	2	10
4	Crusaders	3	1	2	0	1	62	69	-7	2	10
5	Blues	4	1	3	0	0	78	98	-20	1	5

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stoprmers	3	3	0	0	1	81	55	26	0	16
2	Bulls	3	2	1	0	1	92	61	31	2	14
3	Sharks	4	2	2	0	0	84	75	9	3	11
4	Lions	3	1	2	0	1	75	87	-12	1	9
5	Cheetahs	4	1	3	0	0	100	128	-28	2	6

Matches
Blues vs Hurricanes
The injury and suspension-hit Blues are currently sitting bottom of the New Zealand conference after a disappointing start to the 2012 season. The Hurricanes have performed better than expected so far; though they will be disappointed to have lost at home to the high-flying Highlanders last week.

For the Blues Isaia Toeava has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his hip that looks like ending his season. Keven Mealamu (calf-strain), Luke Braid (suspension) and Rene Ranger (suspension) are all out, while Gareth Anscombe (nose fracture) drops to the bench meaning ex-Hurricane Piri Weepu starts at 10 inside Ma’a Nonu. Tony Woodcock is available for the first time this season and wingers David Raikuna and Rudi Wolf return from injury, but the Blues still have 3 Wider Training Group players on their bench.

By contrast the Hurricanes are virtually unchanged from last week, the only change could come at loosehead where Ben May is bracketed with Michael Bent,

Most of the UK bookmakers have the Blues as strong favourites, but personally I would tip the ‘Canes. Though over recent years both teams have been experts of doing the exact opposite of what’s expected of them. Hurricanes by 7.

Rebels vs Western Force
Melbourne sees a battle of the cellar-dwellers this week, the winless 13th placed Rebels host the last placed Force. The Rebels have a very classy backline, but their pack has been found wanting at times this season. A home loss to South African strugglers the Cheetahs last week will have wounded their pride. The Force upset the Waratahs in Sydney at the weekend and they will be keen to notch up another crucial away win in Melbourne.

Kurtley Beale is expected to miss another match for the Rebels with his calf strain, as is Stirling Mortlock, but Sale-bound Danny Cipriani is recovered from the flu and may well start after coming off the bench well at the weekend.

The Force have made two changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Waratahs with winger Nick Cummins returning and prop Pek Cowan rotating to the bench. Skipper David Pocock will be a key for the Force as they seek to starve the Rebels of possession.

Expect this to be a close one. Rebels by 2.

Waratahs vs Sharks
After a slightly disappointing start to the season the highly fancied Sharks find themselves in third in the South African conference as they start their four match Australasian tour in Sydney. The Waratahs will be smarting after their loss at home to the Force last week that leaves them third in the Australian conference, one spot behind the Sharks overall. The Sharks have not won in Sydney since 2000.

The Waratahs have delayed naming their starting side due to a number of injury concerns, but will welcome Wycliff Palu back to the side, and will be captained by prop Benn Robinson as Berrick Barnes is to move into fly half, displacing captain Daniel Halangahu. Brendan McKibbin starts at scrum half ahead of the impressive Sarel Pretorius.

The Sharks have injury concerns in their front row with both their tightheads, Jannie du Plessis and Wiehahn Herbst doubtful forcing them to fly in emergency cover, but du Plessis is named to start. Jandre Marais is rewarded with a start at lock after scoring in last week's win over the Reds. Freddie Michalak stays on the bench, while JP Pietersen is not quite fit enough to return to the playing 22.

On the “if in doubt pick the home team” rule, Waratahs by 5.

Crusaders vs Cheetahs
The Crusaders play their first match at Rugby League Park this weekend, their first match in Christchurch since 2010. After a couple of narrow losses before their bye last week, they need some home points at the expense of the Cheetahs. The Cheetahs managed to pick up their first win of the season in Sydney last week, but have never won a Super Rugby match in New Zealand and lie 2nd-to-last in the competition.

Daniel Carter is back in red and black for the first time this season and will come off the bench, while Israel Dagg moves to fullback after three matches on the wing with Sean Maitland and Zac Guildford on the wings. Tom Taylor moves in to first five eighth in place of the dropped Tyler Blayendaal while Ryan Crotty returns from injury at second five eighth. In the forwards Sam Whitelock returns at lock while his younger brother Sam takes older brother George’s number 6 jersey.

Naka Drotske has tinkered slightly with the side that beat the Waratahs, dropping WP Nel and Davon Raubanheimer. Heinrich Brussow will be a key man for Cheetahs up against Matt Todd.

As long as the Crusaders can overcome the emotions on their return to Christchurch they should win comfortably. Crusaders by 12.

Brumbies vs Highlanders
The unbeaten Highlanders fly to Canberra to take on the Brumbies this week, seeking to stay at the top of the table. The ACT side have picked up a pair of narrow wins at home in the early weeks, but lost to an injury time try in Hamilton last week. Jake White will be happy at sitting second in the Australian conference, given the team’s lack of star names.

The Brumbies have made minor changes to the side that lost to the Chiefs with Sam Carter returning at lock, pushing Peter Kimlin to the blindside flank.

Jimmy Cowan makes his first start of the season for the Highlanders pushing young star Aaron Smith to the bench. Ben Smith returns from injury at fullback, allowing Colin Slade to move up to first five eighth in place of Lima Sopoaga who injured his shoulder last week. James Haskell remains on the bench.

The Brumbies are always tough to beat at home, but this Highlanders team has the talent to do it. Highlanders by 7.

Bulls vs Reds
The injury-plagued Reds travel to Pretoria this week for a match that could be a real clash of styles. The Queenslanders sit at the top of the Australian conference though they have less competition points than the Bulls who are currently the second-placed South African side.

The Bulls welcome Francois Hougaard and Johan Saadie back from suspension and injury respectively in the only changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Blues.

The Reds on the other hand currently have three injured fly-halves in Quade Cooper, Mike Harris and Ben Lucas so they have been forced to call up rookie Dallan Murphy, regarded as a strong ball-runner. Luke Morahan replaces the suspended Digby Ioane in a massively re-jigged backline. The news is better in the forwards where Wallabies Saia Faingaa and Ben Daley return to the front row, and Rob Simmons is back at lock. Radike Samo drops to the bench as he will be covering both the back row and the outside backs on what Ewan McKenzie called a “four and a half-two and a half bench.”

Sadly the Reds’ injuries rather diminish what could have been a cracker of a match. Bulls by 10.

Lions vs Stormers
The Stormers are currently trailing the Highlanders on tries scored in the overall competition table, and they will be looking to keep the pressure on the southerners when they visit the injury-plagued Lions at Ellis Park. Promising New Zealand referee and former Chiefs’ first five eighth Glen Jackson will referee his second Super match after impressing in the Stormers vs Blues match last week.

John Mitchell has re-shuffled his backline this week, and has added scrum-half to his long list of positions plagued by injury. Butch James starts again at 10 with Elton Jantjes still injured, Tian Meyer replaces Michael Bondesio at 9 while Doppies la Grange moves in one to 12 and Jaco Taute shifts from 15 to 13.

The Stormers by contrast are unchanged, Allister Coetzee opting to retain the side that accounted for the Blues last week.

The Lions’ injury list suggests they will have a tough time this week, even though they are at home. Stormers by 7.

Bye
Chiefs

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 6:51 am

Yeah they look fresh. Pressures on them.
Cheetahs are still good enough to rip one off...he says... Run

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 6:51 am

Linebreaker wrote:3 down... 34 to go.

Geez, what was your prediction?

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 6:55 am

That was harsh.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:00 am

LB, talking about dum (on the other thread)

The Freestaters must be either the dummest or most deaf players in SA, Naka Drotske keeps complaining bout the number of penalties the cheetahs concede, but hell they can't help themselves.

by **Pal Joey** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:00 am

biltongbek wrote:That was harsh.

I thought you were good with numbers. Add them up! Smile

I actually used part of your formula but I forgot to modify it.
As Taylor says, the Cheetahs have played well the last couple of weeks.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:01 am

So you said Crusaders by 37?

I think I went for 18

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:02 am

The harsh comment was for a penalty. Very Happy

by **Pal Joey** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:04 am

Ha, OK. (I think I was a bit harsh against the Cheetahs with my tip).

Crusaders starting to flow with the ball now but the Cheetahs are hanging in there.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:07 am

cheetah's biggest problem is their defence.

They will hang in for a while and then just start falling off tackles.

That must be the 6th penalty for the Crusaders in 30 minutes. The cheetahs really need to deal with their indiscipline.

by **Pal Joey** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:10 am

So BB, you're a Lions fan, right?
Have you always followed them or do you prefer another team?
How do you rank the SA teams from favourite to least favourite?

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:14 am

To be honest I gave up supporting the ions after 12 years of mismanagement, poor results and politics.

I now support no particular team apart from the Springboks,

I do like the way the cheethas play running rugby, but they have poor discipline and defence
I like the Sharsk but again like this morning opportunities not taken to posts 5, they got one try. Not great game management.
I like the Stormers for their defensive effort, but not much else.
I don't like the Bulls as their success with their limited game plan has influenced the way our Boks play rugby, and to be honest if you know a fair few Bulls supporters you would despise them too.
The Lions I just feel sorry for.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:16 am

I am sure there was a forward pass leading to that try.

Yep.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:21 am

Why do cheetahs have two different and seemingly worse props from last week?.
maitland try. Overall not a bad half for cheetahs.
Saders will now do their strangling act beginning second half. Tie the ball up and snuff any comeback. Like watching a cobra.

But i still hold out for the cheetahs....

by Mr Fishpaste Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:23 am

biltongbek wrote:To be honest I gave up supporting the ions after 12 years of mismanagement, poor results and politics.

I now support no particular team apart from the Springboks,

I do like the way the cheethas play running rugby, but they have poor discipline and defence
I like the Sharsk but again like this morning opportunities not taken to posts 5, they got one try. Not great game management.
I like the Stormers for their defensive effort, but not much else.
I don't like the Bulls as their success with their limited game plan has influenced the way our Boks play rugby, and to be honest if you know a fair few Bulls supporters you would despise them too.The Lions I just feel sorry for.

Watch out Biltong: one of them might throw a bottle at you!!

by **Pal Joey** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:24 am

Right, because I noticed no affiliation with a team next to your name on SG.

To be honest - I'm sort of the same with NSW. It was hard to call myself a 'fan'.

NSW - too pampered and inconsistent. Painfully frustrating to watch!
Reds - enjoyed their efforts last year; admire their approach to the game.
ACT - neither here nor there with them. Used to be more expansive, but now seemed to have developed a tighter game which is good for them.
Force - would like to see them do well (maybe my second favourite side) but there has been a great exodus of players. Can't see them ever 'up there'.
Rebels - already developed a dislike for them, however some good players in there but they don't seem to gel that well as a team yet. Signs of improvement but lots of injured players.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:25 am

The cheethas have been struggling with coenie Oosthuizen and Wimpie Nel (Now gone) at scrumtime with penalties for probabaly 3 years now.

I think Naka Drotske is trying to lessen the impact of those penalties.

What should be of more concern is why with Os du Randt as their scrumming coach this is continuing?

Os got dropped by the Boks last year and perhaps looking at the continual struggle perhaps he is one of those guys who was a great player but just doesn't cut it as a coach

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:28 am

Mr Fishpaste wrote:
biltongbek wrote:To be honest I gave up supporting the ions after 12 years of mismanagement, poor results and politics.

I now support no particular team apart from the Springboks,

I do like the way the cheethas play running rugby, but they have poor discipline and defence
I like the Sharsk but again like this morning opportunities not taken to posts 5, they got one try. Not great game management.
I like the Stormers for their defensive effort, but not much else.
I don't like the Bulls as their success with their limited game plan has influenced the way our Boks play rugby, and to be honest if you know a fair few Bulls supporters you would despise them too.The Lions I just feel sorry for.

Watch out Biltong: one of them might throw a bottle at you!!

I must tell you this story, I can't reme,ber what year it was, it might have been 2005/6 when the Bulls made the semi fonals, and the Lions only won one match that year.

A bulls supporter sent me an email to tell gloat about the Bulls and tell me how pathetic it was that the Lions came last on the log.

My response to him was this.

"What is more embaressing is the fact that the only team the poorest team in the competition beat was the Bulls"

He never spoke to me again.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:29 am

Linebreaker wrote:Right, because I noticed no affiliation with a team next to your name on SG.

To be honest - I'm sort of the same with NSW. It was hard to call myself a 'fan'.

NSW - too pampered and inconsistent. Painfully frustrating to watch!
Reds - enjoyed their efforts last year; admire their approach to the game.
ACT - neither here nor there with them. Used to be more expansive, but now seemed to have developed a tighter game which is good for them.
Force - would like to see them do well (maybe my second favourite side) but there has been a great exodus of players. Can't see them ever 'up there'.
Rebels - already developed a dislike for them, however some good players in there but they don't seem to gel that well as a team yet. Signs of improvement but lots of injured players.

My biggest prblem with the australian sides is the endless shuffling of the top players every season. I just can't keep track of which team I should rate come the new season.

I guess it has to do with the limited number of players in OZ, I don't know.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:36 am

Man the crusaders made that look easy.

They show an incredible amount of patience on attack. when you look at the way they attack the fringes of the ruck, there is a continuous gain every time and slowly they pull in the defenders, until eventually when they take it wide there is siml]ply not enough defenders.

by aucklandlaurie Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:37 am

Ah Biltong,you gotta watch those guys from Caterbury,they cheat they steal, theyre always up to something.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:38 am

Absolutely beautiful try from the cheetahs from their own goal line.

Wins a the ruck ball quick hands and then just running down the line looking for the support runner and scored in the corner.

BEAUTIFUL.

See LB, that is what no other SA team can do.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:39 am

Why do cheetahs have two different and seemingly worse props from last week?.
maitland try. Overall not a bad half for cheetahs.
Saders will now do their strangling act beginning second half. Tie the ball up and snuff any comeback. Like watching a cobra.

But i still hold out for the cheetahs....

Yoohoo...Goosen great try

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:41 am

That white card is a waste of time, he did lift him but he never turned him over.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:44 am

aucklandlaurie wrote: Ah Biltong,you gotta watch those guys from Caterbury,they cheat they steal, theyre always up to something.

Morning Laurie, I am busy writing a pice on how to play the perfect gameplan. It is a work in progress to work a way around refereeing interpretations.

A lot of things the Crusaders do just makes a lot of sense.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:59 am

My goodness what a beautiful try by the cheetahs, cleaning the rucks nicely, getting ball cuickly out of hand, some offloads, some steps.

fantastic

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:01 am

Well thats the way id like to see SA teams play. Good hard straight running. Simple lines good skills and no hesitation.
Goosen 19? Plays beyond that.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:04 am

Woohoo!
21 each...stop it!

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:07 am

Taylorman wrote:Well thats the way id like to see SA teams play. Good hard straight running. Simple lines good skills and no hesitation.
Goosen 19? Plays beyond that.

Hard to believe this is our weakest team in the comp. Imagine all our teams were this positive.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:13 am

Sad for the Cheetahs, but that try was inevitable.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:15 am

Inevitable. Drew them in nicely to the left then stretched them right in a heartbeat. Typical saders patience and sting.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:16 am

Last minute equalizer?

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:17 am

No, I don't think so, the Crusaders will close it off now

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:17 am

Opps mistake by Crusaders is there a chance

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:18 am

Now why did he kick that. Must have been a brainf..

by Full Credit Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:20 am

Maybe he though he was playing in Otago and the ground clock was 5 minutes fast.

by aucklandlaurie Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:22 am

Because he wanted to stay within 7 and get the bonus point.

Biltong: I reckon thats a good use of the white card,if that had happened in the Northern Hemisphere it would have been a yellow and 15 v 14.To me there was nothing wrong with the tackle.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:24 am

Hmmm...
Great effort cheetahs. They wont be bottom 3 this year.
Hard ask to score a try there and if turned over saders could have gone for the bonus so in hindsight perhaps a cool head to kick it out.

Cleanest game by far and shows what can happen when both teams just wanna get on with it. Points dont come too easy off this side.

If Goosen is only 19 Id look after that one. Had a blinder and a superb start and finish try in the corner.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:25 am

Overall the cheetahs should be satisfied with their tour so far, two bonus points and a win, 6 points in the antipodeans, nit bad for our bottom dwellers.

Wat they will regret is the unfortunate loss to the Brumbies. I didn't see the game but read the Brumbies were fortunate with some decision in that one.

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:26 am

Yes Taylorman, with Goosen and Lambie our cupboard doesn't look so bare anyomre with quality flyhalves.

by aucklandlaurie Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:32 am

Tonight Ive watched both Goosen and Lambie,Lambie has really improved/worked on his ball distribution and that knee he took to the gob showed that hes got a bit of starch.
Goosen:Ive known horses that douldnt kick that hard.

by aucklandlaurie Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:47 am

With uncontested scrums why do you have to go through Crouch..touch..pause..engage?

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:52 am

Yes, but the referee says it softly, he doesn't want to rile up the fornt row, if he screams they might get excited.

by aucklandlaurie Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:54 am

Maybe he should scream out "Dont push"?

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:55 am

CROUCH!YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEH! Shocked

TOUCH1 YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEH! Erm

PAUSE!YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEH! mad

ENGAGE!!!!!!! boxing

YYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHH1

by **Biltong** Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:56 am

When he does it softly,

crouch please. Wink

touch please Cool

pause please Very Happy

engage?

by aucklandlaurie Sat 24 Mar 2012, 9:02 am

Im just watching the Brumbies Highlanders game,that James Haskell is a lot faster than I appreciated.

by Full Credit Sat 24 Mar 2012, 9:03 am

Brumbies carving up the highlanders early on. If they keep playing how they have been the Brumbies will be there at the pointy end of the season.

by Full Credit Sat 24 Mar 2012, 9:05 am

Sparkling wordplay from Clarkie there "the Brumbies aren't cantering".

by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 9:09 am

Early days credit. Though Highlanders do look a little behind the ball at the mo. Highlanders will be back. Theyve been too consistent to let that score go unanswered.

by Full Credit Sat 24 Mar 2012, 9:13 am

Yes early days I know, but given I hadn't given them any chance this season I'm glad they're playing a nice brand of footy. Jake White's obviously had a big influence down there. Brumbies just feeding off turnover ball first 20mins.

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