Super XV Week 5 Preview and Live Match Thread

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

First topic message reminder :

After the opening four weeks of the 2012 Super XV 70% of matches have seen a team win by 7 points or less. Only the Highlanders and the Stormers remain unbeaten, and only the Rebels are yet to win a match.

Points table after round 4
Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Reds	4	3	1	0	0	93	74	19	1	13
2	Brumbies	3	2	1	0	1	65	69	4	1	13
3	Waratahs	4	1	3	0	0	93	83	10	4	8
4	Rebels	3	0	3	0	1	51	79	-28	2	6
5	Western Force	4	1	3	0	0	77	120	-43	1	5

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Highlanders	4	4	0	0	0	87	77	10	0	16
2	Chiefs	4	3	1	0	0	101	78	23	2	14
3	Hurricanes	4	2	2	0	0	119	105	14	2	10
4	Crusaders	3	1	2	0	1	62	69	-7	2	10
5	Blues	4	1	3	0	0	78	98	-20	1	5

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stoprmers	3	3	0	0	1	81	55	26	0	16
2	Bulls	3	2	1	0	1	92	61	31	2	14
3	Sharks	4	2	2	0	0	84	75	9	3	11
4	Lions	3	1	2	0	1	75	87	-12	1	9
5	Cheetahs	4	1	3	0	0	100	128	-28	2	6

Matches
Blues vs Hurricanes
The injury and suspension-hit Blues are currently sitting bottom of the New Zealand conference after a disappointing start to the 2012 season. The Hurricanes have performed better than expected so far; though they will be disappointed to have lost at home to the high-flying Highlanders last week.

For the Blues Isaia Toeava has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his hip that looks like ending his season. Keven Mealamu (calf-strain), Luke Braid (suspension) and Rene Ranger (suspension) are all out, while Gareth Anscombe (nose fracture) drops to the bench meaning ex-Hurricane Piri Weepu starts at 10 inside Ma’a Nonu. Tony Woodcock is available for the first time this season and wingers David Raikuna and Rudi Wolf return from injury, but the Blues still have 3 Wider Training Group players on their bench.

By contrast the Hurricanes are virtually unchanged from last week, the only change could come at loosehead where Ben May is bracketed with Michael Bent,

Most of the UK bookmakers have the Blues as strong favourites, but personally I would tip the ‘Canes. Though over recent years both teams have been experts of doing the exact opposite of what’s expected of them. Hurricanes by 7.


Rebels vs Western Force
Melbourne sees a battle of the cellar-dwellers this week, the winless 13th placed Rebels host the last placed Force. The Rebels have a very classy backline, but their pack has been found wanting at times this season. A home loss to South African strugglers the Cheetahs last week will have wounded their pride. The Force upset the Waratahs in Sydney at the weekend and they will be keen to notch up another crucial away win in Melbourne.

Kurtley Beale is expected to miss another match for the Rebels with his calf strain, as is Stirling Mortlock, but Sale-bound Danny Cipriani is recovered from the flu and may well start after coming off the bench well at the weekend.

The Force have made two changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Waratahs with winger Nick Cummins returning and prop Pek Cowan rotating to the bench. Skipper David Pocock will be a key for the Force as they seek to starve the Rebels of possession.

Expect this to be a close one. Rebels by 2.


Waratahs vs Sharks
After a slightly disappointing start to the season the highly fancied Sharks find themselves in third in the South African conference as they start their four match Australasian tour in Sydney. The Waratahs will be smarting after their loss at home to the Force last week that leaves them third in the Australian conference, one spot behind the Sharks overall. The Sharks have not won in Sydney since 2000.

The Waratahs have delayed naming their starting side due to a number of injury concerns, but will welcome Wycliff Palu back to the side, and will be captained by prop Benn Robinson as Berrick Barnes is to move into fly half, displacing captain Daniel Halangahu. Brendan McKibbin starts at scrum half ahead of the impressive Sarel Pretorius.

The Sharks have injury concerns in their front row with both their tightheads, Jannie du Plessis and Wiehahn Herbst doubtful forcing them to fly in emergency cover, but du Plessis is named to start. Jandre Marais is rewarded with a start at lock after scoring in last week's win over the Reds. Freddie Michalak stays on the bench, while JP Pietersen is not quite fit enough to return to the playing 22.

On the “if in doubt pick the home team” rule, Waratahs by 5.


Crusaders vs Cheetahs
The Crusaders play their first match at Rugby League Park this weekend, their first match in Christchurch since 2010. After a couple of narrow losses before their bye last week, they need some home points at the expense of the Cheetahs. The Cheetahs managed to pick up their first win of the season in Sydney last week, but have never won a Super Rugby match in New Zealand and lie 2nd-to-last in the competition.

Daniel Carter is back in red and black for the first time this season and will come off the bench, while Israel Dagg moves to fullback after three matches on the wing with Sean Maitland and Zac Guildford on the wings. Tom Taylor moves in to first five eighth in place of the dropped Tyler Blayendaal while Ryan Crotty returns from injury at second five eighth. In the forwards Sam Whitelock returns at lock while his younger brother Sam takes older brother George’s number 6 jersey.

Naka Drotske has tinkered slightly with the side that beat the Waratahs, dropping WP Nel and Davon Raubanheimer. Heinrich Brussow will be a key man for Cheetahs up against Matt Todd.

As long as the Crusaders can overcome the emotions on their return to Christchurch they should win comfortably. Crusaders by 12.


Brumbies vs Highlanders
The unbeaten Highlanders fly to Canberra to take on the Brumbies this week, seeking to stay at the top of the table. The ACT side have picked up a pair of narrow wins at home in the early weeks, but lost to an injury time try in Hamilton last week. Jake White will be happy at sitting second in the Australian conference, given the team’s lack of star names.

The Brumbies have made minor changes to the side that lost to the Chiefs with Sam Carter returning at lock, pushing Peter Kimlin to the blindside flank.

Jimmy Cowan makes his first start of the season for the Highlanders pushing young star Aaron Smith to the bench. Ben Smith returns from injury at fullback, allowing Colin Slade to move up to first five eighth in place of Lima Sopoaga who injured his shoulder last week. James Haskell remains on the bench.

The Brumbies are always tough to beat at home, but this Highlanders team has the talent to do it. Highlanders by 7.


Bulls vs Reds
The injury-plagued Reds travel to Pretoria this week for a match that could be a real clash of styles. The Queenslanders sit at the top of the Australian conference though they have less competition points than the Bulls who are currently the second-placed South African side.

The Bulls welcome Francois Hougaard and Johan Saadie back from suspension and injury respectively in the only changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Blues.

The Reds on the other hand currently have three injured fly-halves in Quade Cooper, Mike Harris and Ben Lucas so they have been forced to call up rookie Dallan Murphy, regarded as a strong ball-runner. Luke Morahan replaces the suspended Digby Ioane in a massively re-jigged backline. The news is better in the forwards where Wallabies Saia Faingaa and Ben Daley return to the front row, and Rob Simmons is back at lock. Radike Samo drops to the bench as he will be covering both the back row and the outside backs on what Ewan McKenzie called a “four and a half-two and a half bench.”

Sadly the Reds’ injuries rather diminish what could have been a cracker of a match. Bulls by 10.


Lions vs Stormers
The Stormers are currently trailing the Highlanders on tries scored in the overall competition table, and they will be looking to keep the pressure on the southerners when they visit the injury-plagued Lions at Ellis Park. Promising New Zealand referee and former Chiefs’ first five eighth Glen Jackson will referee his second Super match after impressing in the Stormers vs Blues match last week.

John Mitchell has re-shuffled his backline this week, and has added scrum-half to his long list of positions plagued by injury. Butch James starts again at 10 with Elton Jantjes still injured, Tian Meyer replaces Michael Bondesio at 9 while Doppies la Grange moves in one to 12 and Jaco Taute shifts from 15 to 13.

The Stormers by contrast are unchanged, Allister Coetzee opting to retain the side that accounted for the Blues last week.

The Lions’ injury list suggests they will have a tough time this week, even though they are at home. Stormers by 7.


Bye
Chiefs

[Biltong]

rory if you want to know more and read the superwraps of previous weekends to keep tabs on which players are showing form or had a good weekend then here is a link.

SUPERWRAP

Thanks a bunch!

Cheers, I find them quite objective for a South African website.

[Biltong]

Kiwi, just for information, after 5 weeks the number of matches within 7 points are 25/34 = 74%.

Doubt that happened any other year.

[Taylorman]

The results so far have been amazing, typical of the bulls to throw an apple into the cart. Have to agree the SA's are playing some great stuff though as soon as I said it I felt this huge wave of deja vu wash over me ... ...I've.....been...here...before....

So as you know Biltong its still about that transition from the generous smorgasbord of 5 teams into one green one, something that's proved rather a challenge last couple of years.

Oz seem to get through on an oily rag of players and we're somewhere in the middle.

Definitely a new feel about this year...

[Biltong]

Yes, Taylorman, Very true, the only important thing for me at this stage is that the suppsed stalwarts gain some form, if Morne Steyn start playing rugby and combines that with his kicking abilities we are already better off than an ultra conservative Steyn.

But we'll probably find a way to stuff it up anyhow.

[eirebilly]

I have just seen a message that Colin Slade is out for the rest of the year.

http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/story/161944.html

[Biltong]

Yeah that was a nasty accident, and it looked so inoccuous when the tackle occured.

[eirebilly]

I didnt see it biltong but its never a good thing when a player has this happen to him.

[Taylorman]

Yes, Taylorman, Very true, the only important thing for me at this stage is that the suppsed stalwarts gain some form, if Morne Steyn start playing rugby and combines that with his kicking abilities we are already better off than an ultra conservative Steyn.

But we'll probably find a way to stuff it up anyhow.

Perhaps, I tend to find leopards don't change their spots that much and the Lambies, Goosen's need to take over as soon as possible. SA do tend to want to extract more form their players past their use by date a little and I can't see Steyn being any more effective against us if he changes. In fact if he starts running a bit they'll target him as they know its not a strength.

Early days though. Still can't get over the form of some teams. Couple of weeks ago Bulls were outplayed by the Blues who have failed every other outing then the Reds go down by 60 to the same team, also paying at home...? Either it doesnt say a lot for the Oz sides at the moment or the Bulls have made some rapid improvements rather quickly.

[Biltong]

Taylorman, the chances that Meyer is going to select Steyn is just about a certainty.

So if he brings more to the game than he has done before it will be more challenging for NZ, purely because at least then there will be an element of unpredictability that has not been evident since 2009

[boomeranga]

The Reds have drafted in a kid that returned this year from your part of the world Biltong. Sam Lane, whose father Tim had apparently been coaching over your way for a few years.

http://www.theroar.com.au/2012/03/27/son-of-a-gun-lane-answers-qld-reds-sos/

[Full Credit]

I guess the potential upshot of the Reds injury carnage is that a few young blokes will get their chance who otherwise wouldn't have. They obviously couldn't persist with Murphy at 10 after that effort. The worrying thing for me was not only how quickly the wheels fell off but the extent to which they fell off (I think they're still rolling down the road!). The Reds will need a dramatic improvement in attitude and start showing a bit of ticker otherwise they could go from champions to wooden spooners in a season. I don't know if McKenzie will use a 5/2 bench again any time soon.

[boomeranga]

I could understand their backs being limited FC, but the forward effort was really poor. There was enough decent players out there to have put up more fight than that. The heavy loss against NSW in the early rounds last year seemed to trigger them into action, but with so many injured, I doubt they will be able to respond as effectively for a few weeks yet. They just need to survive, scrap a few wins, and hope they can get back on track once back to something more like full strength. Shame about Jono Lance. I think he has the making of a good player.

[Biltong]

Yeah boomeranga, I know of Tim Lane, but he has been here for some time hasn't he?

As far as the Reds are concerned, they just had a very bad day at the office. Injuries do take a huge toll, I look at the Lions and having 11 players injured should have made a big impact against the Stormers, however their youngsters put up a big fight against the stormers and it was a game they should have won, if they took their kicks to post.

What surprised me about the Reds was the fact they they looked like they gave up hope. Now that is not something you want to see from the champions, even if filled with a bunch of youngsters.

[boomeranga]

I agree, and it really suprised me as losing heart just isn't a trait I would associate with qlders. If you gave our states personalities, Qld would be the pub brawler and nsw the dandy.

There was a bit around today to read on Sam Lane. it sounds like he completed most if not all his high school years in SA. his father has just returned this year to coach one of the Sydney clubs.

[Biltong]

Well then chances are he has a decent rugby education.

[Sponsored content]