Ideal ranking for Federer

by Tennisanorak Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:42 pm

Since the race for the #2 ranking is hotting up, I was thinking what the ideal ranking for Fed would be.

Federer at #2:

Assuming the rankings are Djoker, Fed, Nadal, Murray in that order, there’d be a 50% chance of a Djoker- Nadal and Fed- Murray semis which is exactly what Fed wants. However, in the other scenario, of Federer- Nadal and Djoker- Murray semis, he would have to beat Nadal in the semi and Djoker in the final. That is a tough ask.

Federer at #3:

If however the rankings are Djoker, Murray, Federer, Nadal, then Federer avoids Nadal till the final. Djoker- Nadal and Fed- Murray semis are is still 50% likely, but in the other scenario, the semis now become Federer- Djoker and Murray- Nadal. I think this is better for Federer since Murray might beat Nadal.

In short, Federer’s best chances are if Murray becomes #2 and Federer and Nadal are at numbers 3 and 4 (the order between Fed and Nadal is immaterial). This is a very likely outcome as things stand.

Incidentally, this is also the order of rankings Nadal would prefer as it gives him the best chance of avoiding Djoker. He would much rather prefer to play Murray in the semis and then Federer rather than Federer in the semis and then Djoker (like at the AO). Of course, there's a 50% chance that he'll meet Djoker in both cases (i.e. if the # 2 ranked player is Federer or Murray)

Hopefully, Murray plays well in the next few tournaments and becomes #2 by the French Open! That would be awesome!

by Guest Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:01 pm

Murray needs to start beating the top three more regularly in order to challenge for the Number 2 spot. Currently Federer has a better chance of beating Djokovic and Murray than Nadal in a best of five setter.

by noleisthebest Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:04 pm

Draws will be fixed for Federer/Nadal for both RG and Wimbledon, they won't be in the same half, and that's all that matters whether Federer is 2nd or third.

by Tennisanorak Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:07 pm

No, still there's a difference, NITB. If Federer is ranked #3, even assuming he doesn't play Nadal in the semis, he can play either of Djoker or Murray in the semis. However, if Federer is ranked #2 and doesn't play Nadal in the semis, the semi HAS to be Djoker- Federer.

by Tennisanorak Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:09 pm

Nore Staat, that isn't necessary at all. If Nadal loses early at Monte Carlo and Murray reaches say the final, the gap between them will be less than 500 points which Murray can easily make up. Is this such an unlikely scenario, with all the injury problems Nadal has been having of late?

by noleisthebest Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:17 pm

Tennisanorak wrote:No, still there's a difference, NITB. If Federer is ranked #3, even assuming he doesn't play Nadal in the semis, he can play either of Djoker or Murray in the semis. However, if Federer is ranked #2 and doesn't play Nadal in the semis, the semi HAS to be Djoker- Federer.

either way he has to beat both Nadal and Djokovic. How can Federer play Murray in the semis if he's number 3?

by Guest Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:18 pm

There is uncertainty over Nadal's post AO2012 form so it's possible that Nadal will drop below ... someone. However, Nadal normally wins on clay - at least getting to finals so a more likely scenario for this to happen would be him having to withdraw from clay tournaments due to knee issues.

by hawkeye Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:21 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Draws will be fixed for Federer/Nadal for both RG and Wimbledon, they won't be in the same half, and that's all that matters whether Federer is 2nd or third.

I very much hope you are correct!

What it boils down to is that Djokovic, Nadal and Federer all want to be in the same half as Murray... To make things fair he should be shared out.

by noleisthebest Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:21 pm

Nore Staat wrote:There is uncertainty over Nadal's post AO2012 form so it's possible that Nadal will drop below ... someone. However, Nadal normally wins on clay - at least getting to finals so a more likely scenario for this to happen would be him having to withdraw from clay tournaments due to knee issues.

Nadal is going to bust himself during clay and Wimbledon to remain number 2, I don't buy a single world about his Miami withdrawal.
He's probably pumping himself silly in some gym as I type this....

Look forward to Nole crushing him in FO final.

by sirfredperry Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:34 pm

The permutations are endless. Of course, if Rafa and Fed end up three and four they can't meet before the final of an event - that's one way of their being kept apart.

by hawkeye Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:35 pm

noleisthebest wrote:
Nore Staat wrote:There is uncertainty over Nadal's post AO2012 form so it's possible that Nadal will drop below ... someone. However, Nadal normally wins on clay - at least getting to finals so a more likely scenario for this to happen would be him having to withdraw from clay tournaments due to knee issues.

Nadal is going to bust himself during clay and Wimbledon to remain number 2, I don't buy a single world about his Miami withdrawal.
He's probably pumping himself silly in some gym as I type this....

Look forward to Nole crushing him in FO final.

Djokovic has never done particularly well at RG. He has never made the final. Last year he got to the semi's but in 2010 he went out in the quarters to Melzer and in 2009 he went out in the round of 32 to Kohshreiber.

by Tenez Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:48 pm

hawkeye wrote:
Djokovic has never done particularly well at RG. He has never made the final. Last year he got to the semi's but in 2010 he went out in the quarters to Melzer and in 2009 he went out in the round of 32 to Kohshreiber.

He never was world number 1 before last summer. He never had won Wimbledon and had never been in a final there. He had never won the USO before last September. He had never won WOn Nadal on clay...He had never won Nadal in a final, he had never won Nadal in a slam....and on....and on....

by LuvSports! Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:48 pm

hawkeye - I dont think his past results matter now too much as he is such a different animal now. Cant see too many players hurting him, semi's at least each year imo.

by LuvSports! Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:49 pm

maaannnn tenezzz ya beat me 2da boxing

(sposed to be punch but apaz the smiley is boxing :P)

by Tenez Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:56 pm

LuvSports! wrote:maaannnn tenezzz ya beat me 2da (sposed to be punch but apaz the smiley is boxing :P)

by hawkeye Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:02 pm

LuvSports! wrote:hawkeye - I dont think his past results matter now too much as he is such a different animal now. Cant see too many players hurting him, semi's at least each year imo.

Is he really a "different animal". Thats the bit I can't quite buy. Of course he has more trophies but I've been watching him since about 2007 and he looks like the same Nole to me. I do think he was very much under appreciated prior to 2011 though.

by sirfredperry Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:04 pm

H-E. Confidence, belief, willpower, fitness - that's the difference with Nole

by Tennisanorak Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:11 pm

NITB- they can play each other in the semi if Murray becomes #2

by reckoner Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:13 pm

sirfredperry wrote:H-E. Confidence, belief, willpower, fitness - that's the difference with Nole

http://docigor.org/

and this guy lol

by LuvSports! Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:17 pm

yes hawkeye he really is a different animal and SFP sums it up very accurately and succinctly.

by hawkeye Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:22 pm

Tenez wrote:
hawkeye wrote:
Djokovic has never done particularly well at RG. He has never made the final. Last year he got to the semi's but in 2010 he went out in the quarters to Melzer and in 2009 he went out in the round of 32 to Kohshreiber.

He never was world number 1 before last summer. He never had won Wimbledon and had never been in a final there. He had never won the USO before last September. He had never won WOn Nadal on clay...He had never won Nadal in a final, he had never won Nadal in a slam....and on....and on....

Djokovic has always had the ability to push both Nadal and Federer and beat them. He had a hard court slam title at 20 (beating Federer on the way). He had been to two US finals before winning last year. IMO Djokovic played better in the 2010 final that he lost than the 2011 final that he won. Djokovic should have beaten Nadal on clay in 2009 but somehow didn't. He did all this with the same game that he has now. The same crisp ground strokes, the same backhand down the line, the same excellent serve that sometimes gets lost, the same uncomfotable volleys, the same if cornered go for broke attitude... So what's changed?

by reckoner Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:22 pm

wow did you know that the Indian Institute of Magnetotherapy, where Dr Igor got his diploma does it's qualifications by correspondence? I suppose you send them the cheque and they send you the qualification!

by hawkeye Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:24 pm

Belief and willpower. Pfft! A bit of confidence is always useful though...

by reckoner Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:25 pm

I do find it quite amusing all these Djoker fans willing to imply Nadal is using PEDs etc. The irony!

by invisiblecoolers Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:27 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Draws will be fixed for Federer/Nadal for both RG and Wimbledon, they won't be in the same half, and that's all that matters whether Federer is 2nd or third.

NITB your a comedian Very Happy

, The joker had Murray in AO semi's let somebody else have him in FO, come on every body deserve to date Murray on GS draw semi, two reasons for it ,1] Murray might not even make till semi's Very Happy

, 2nd ] Murray is too gentle to use any of his weapons to hurt somebody on the tennis court including the Tennis ball Very Happy

.

by Tenez Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:43 pm

hawkeye wrote:So what's changed?

A few points there and then that makes him 7/0 v Nadal in his last 7 encounters...and I cannot see how the trend would change if they met at the FO.

It's open certainly but past results are not going to affect this one should they meet there.

by reckoner Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:51 pm

Tenez wrote:
A few points there and then that makes him 7/0 v Nadal in his last 7 encounters...and I cannot see how the trend would change if they met at the FO.

It's open certainly but past results are not going to affect this one should they meet there.

sorry, honestly a little confused by this.

the trend is 7-0 and we should keep that in mind (i.e. past events matter)

but past results are not going to affect this one?

which is it, mon vieux?

p.s. please do try to put aside our little disagreement about Llodra vomit

when you respond. Thx!

by hawkeye Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:30 pm

Tenez wrote:
hawkeye wrote:So what's changed?

A few points there and then that makes him 7/0 v Nadal in his last 7 encounters...and I cannot see how the trend would change if they met at the FO.

It's open certainly but past results are not going to affect this one should they meet there.

A few point here, a few points there, a bit of confidence here, a lack of confidence there, a bit of luck here, a bit of luck there.... apart from that whats changed?

by reckoner Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:35 pm

Dr Igor?

by erictheblueuk Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:50 pm

Fed won't take Rafa's No2 spot in the clay season and Murray's game seems in transition so I can't see him catching Fed either. I expect the top four to stay as they are at least until the USO.

by Tenez Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:33 am

erictheblueuk wrote:Fed won't take Rafa's No2 spot in the clay season and Murray's game seems in transition so I can't see him catching Fed either. I expect the top four to stay as they are at least until the USO.

You are wrong. Trust me.

by gallery play Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:45 am

Tenez wrote:
hawkeye wrote:So what's changed?

A few points there and then that makes him 7/0 v Nadal in his last 7 encounters...and I cannot see how the trend would change if they met at the FO.

It's open certainly but past results are not going to affect this one should they meet there.

I believe Djoko has to upper his current level if he wants to maintain his winning streak over Nadal, otherwise Nadal could strike back on clay this time

by Tenez Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:51 am

I think few players can hurt Djoko, on clay or elsewhere...And Nadal is not one of them. He doesn't rush Djoko. However as niticed, Djoko doesn't seem to have the same stamina as in 2011 and will need to do the job in straight sets. Having said that he did pretty well in Australia.

by noleisthebest Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:08 am

Fear not!
Nole will rule in 2012 Smile

by prostaff85 Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:21 am

About the #2 seed for Roland Garros and Wimbledon:
(I'm leaving out Djokovic as he is so far ahead)

Current points still valid when seeding for the French Open is done:
Federer: 8,405
Nadal: 7,515
Murray: 7,230

Current points still valid when seeding for Wimbledon is done:
Federer: 7,205
Murray: 6,260
Nadal: 5,470

Conclusion: if Nadal has a 'normal' clay season, he will catch up and should be able to be #2 seed both at the French Open and Wimbledon.

As long as Nadal stays #2, it doesn't really matter whether Murray overtakes Federer or not.

by reckoner Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:50 am

Well, that's the question isn't it - whether this recent little storm of negativity in the Nadal camp will affect his usual dominance in the clay season.

It always seems to be the case that clay tournaments give Nadal a shot in the arm (or the knee?) that he feeds on for the rest of the season, so if Djokovic can derail this it should make for a very exciting season.

by gallery play Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:03 pm

Tenez wrote:I think few players can hurt Djoko, on clay or elsewhere...And Nadal is not one of them. He doesn't rush Djoko. However as niticed, Djoko doesn't seem to have the same stamina as in 2011 and will need to do the job in straight sets. Having said that he did pretty well in Australia.

But Djoko does not rush Nadal either, at least not like he used to do on fast courts. It's a survival of the fittest now. Once Nadal notices he's not facing the same physical resistance like last year..he could get dangerous.
Once again i think we should not underestimate Nadal's resilience.

by luciusmann Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:38 pm

I'm not exactly sure where this view that Nadal will come back and beat Djokovic comes from. If anything is learnt from last year, Djokovic had his most convincing wins against Rafa on clay. I get that the Aussie Open was close this year but in a Bo3 sets match, do we really think that Nadal will somehow pull out a victory from somewhere...?

If you include the grand slam matches they've played and look at just the first 3 sets of those matches and the Bo3 matches since 2010, Djokovic has always won 2 of the first 3 sets and that includes the Aussie Open final this year. I will concede that the French Open is a different prospect if they play there but in terms of the other clay court tournaments, I'm sticking with Djokovic beating Nadal should he meet him in the final.

by Guest Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:43 pm

Tennisanorak wrote:Ideal ranking for Federer

I think the ideal ranking for Federer would be Number 1, but maybe I'm wrong on this.

by reckoner Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:46 pm

Nore Staat wrote:
Tennisanorak wrote:Ideal ranking for Federer
I think the ideal ranking for Federer would be Number 1, but maybe I'm wrong on this.

by Tenez Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:47 pm

gallery play wrote:
Tenez wrote:I think few players can hurt Djoko, on clay or elsewhere...And Nadal is not one of them. He doesn't rush Djoko. However as niticed, Djoko doesn't seem to have the same stamina as in 2011 and will need to do the job in straight sets. Having said that he did pretty well in Australia.

But Djoko does not rush Nadal either, at least not like he used to do on fast courts. It's a survival of the fittest now. Once Nadal notices he's not facing the same physical resistance like last year..he could get dangerous.
Once again i think we should not underestimate Nadal's resilience.

If you look at last Sundays final, it could easily have been 61 63 v Murray. I do think that's the kind of score we will have from now on between Djoko and Nadal. Nadal will try to hit harder but will get tired quicker. Djoko is almost always going to win those physical battles. He is simply better "designed" than the Spaniard for those long battles.

by reckoner Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:54 pm

"designed" by Dr Igoooooooooooooooooooooooooor

by luciusmann Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:55 pm

As for the ideal rankings..... #1 or #2 is perfect for Fed, either position suits Fed as long as it reduces his chances of potentially encountering Nadal/Djokovic in successive matches. Unfortunately being #3 won't do that.

Obviously #1 would be brilliant but that may take a while to get to unless he wins a clay court tournament as well reach the final of the other and wins Wimbledon. If he managed that, he might be within a hair of taking #1. However, Fed only managed that sort of performance on clay back in his pomp and he wasn't always winning when he reached two clay court tournament finals. So with this in mind, getting to even #2 will be a challenge but not an impossible one, #1 on the other hand in the next few months is completely unrealistic.

by Henman Bill Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:57 pm

If Murray or Federer want to get to no 2, then they can achieve this is Djokovic dominates the clay court season and doesn't lose to Nadal.

However if they want to get to no 1 then they need to see almost the opposite, Djokovic doing as badly as possible.

Nadal can hold #2 with a good clay court season but can't contend for #1 unless he starts out performing Djokovic in tournaments.

by CaledonianCraig Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:06 pm

Sounds more like an article from a Federer fan who fancied his chances getting back to No.1 but who has now given up on the idea and is trying to convince themselves they are happy where he is.

by Guest Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:11 pm

I think Federer would want to stay in the top 4 no matter what the order. It makes the path to the Slams less daunting and plus byes in the Masters events.

If Federer had a path in a Slam that was clear of Djokovic or Nadal, then you'd favour him to win it. At his age though, will he really want to push himself beyond physical limitations? Right now at this stage of his career it is paramount to stay fit and healthy and also have a manageable schedule in place if he wants to peak well at the Slams.

by Josiah Maiestas Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:01 pm

Federer is still number 1 in the most significant ranking, The "backhand shanker" ranking. You are all jealous of his shanking successfulness. He has never lost a match when it comes to shanking.

Shank you.

by reckoner Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:03 pm

We could start calling him Sir Shanks-a-lot?

by LuvSports! Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:32 pm

the jokes just keep on getting better Tumbleweed

by reckoner Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:35 pm

Wow what a bummer

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