PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

two eagles in three holes from Lawrie....

Mac,
Are you sure that wasn't when he blew The Players with his dying mother watching from her wheelchair?

lawie!!!!!!!!!!!

He is a 'brit' again! come on my son

is rose becoming the new faldo

9 pars front 9!

Kwini

Pretty sure it was the masters. Did he not have some trouble down the left side of the tenth green in the play off?

Maybe he just cries all the time?

Will Augusta get the champion it deserves?
C'mon Mr Lawrie.

been watching masters moments and previews for what seems like weeks!!

i need live coverage!!

There's amen corner live

EDIT: Forgot how much I hate the Augusta theme :P

blimey- all i had to do was press red!!

strenson is 5 under par!!

wooooooow! Stenson eagle to -5!!!!

Stenson getting greedy for crystal now, two par fives, two eagles.

If he does the set in one round does he get a bonus decanter?

donald plus 2 , hoover plus 1.

gulp

fish is hitting on 16,hit it to 6 foot!! could be 3 under soon

If Stenson and/or Lawrie can win this week, that will put a knot in the skivvies of some of the fringe Ryder Cup Euro Contenders.

Great birdie on 17 for the flying scotsman, not many will manage that this week.

add fish to that list as well

Anyone know what happened to tiger on 7?

stenson is going nuts out there. different league- cant keep it up surely!!

if he does he has a shot at a 62

Sandy Lyle...

Stadler and Lyle likely to receive a "polite" letter from Billy Payne advising them not to take their respective places in next year's field . . . . . .

Someone needs to tell Verplank this is The Masters, not the Byron Nelson.

I wonder if no Fanny on the bag is one of the reasons for Stenson's revival...

Bogey at the last for Fish, but still a more than encouraging return from hiding for the Englishman... Tiger begining to move up and a good start from Lee...

Sounds like Fanny was quite badly hurt . . . . . .

Baddeley ignoring the Aussie script - he's one under par, the other 5 are +14 between them. Where's our friend to offer some support?

Doubles for Rors and Angel. Will that settle Rory down or get him rattled?

Harrington -4 on the par 5's . . . .

kwinigolfer wrote:Mac,
Are you sure that wasn't when he blew The Players with his dying mother watching from her wheelchair?

Maybe confused with Brandt Snedeker having a wee sob after Immelman beat him in 2008.

I came on to source some info on why Fanny Sunesson isn't caddying for Stenson again. What have I missed here?

Mac
If you go to the Masters leader board via EPGA leaderboard. They have video clips of important holes/shots. Tigers 7th hole is on there.

Doon

Redrage,
My understand she fell badly at Crans sur whatever last year when a marshall lifted a gallery rope at a bad time for her and she took a very awkward tumble, damaging some unspecified (in the report I read) parts. No doubt we'll hear more from Henrik if he holds this together.

Some scattered showers in the Augusta area but the forecast for anything "severe" has been pushed back to this evening - might actually get this in.

Nice to see Rory and Angel bouncing back.

Sergioooooo!

gonna blame sandy lyle for ruining hoovers chances, I really wouldnt wanna play in a medal with a 24 handicapper, but imagine a tour pro playing in a major with one!!!

Re Fanny Sunneson

Faldo said something on Golf Channel that she is on the disabled list. Bad Back I think.

donalds having a mare!

kwinigolfer wrote:Doon

Redrage,
My understand she fell badly at Crans sur whatever last year when a marshall lifted a gallery rope at a bad time for her and she took a very awkward tumble, damaging some unspecified (in the report I read) parts. No doubt we'll hear more from Henrik if he holds this together.

Cheers, Kwini!

Quite enjoying the red button on Sky. Currently looking at 15th and 16th holes. Not much commentary, quite a bit of on course microphones trying to hear players, and no adverts - as yet. It's like watching from a particular place on the course.

yeah its quite good- however the ahmen corner one has about the worst commentary i have ever heard in my life!

westy and garcia- 2 under a piece!!

get in!

Alarm bells for Luke, 4-over par?!
Solid starts from many of the euros...

Stenson has come along way since the US Open! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHsU9hfKFfA

About 30 golfers under par right now, but only Duffer, Lawrie and Henrik at -3 or better. Scoring seems to be improving, which makes Donald's slow start even more shocking.

i think westy must be either 3 under or goiung 3 under- his odds have rocketed downwards

kwini- why did you let me change my picks the the fantasy?

leeeeeeee!

yeah he is 3 under - so thats 3 birdies on the spin and a par 5 to come!!

Anyone else got the Masters' app? Quite like the way the "over and under" leader board updates if you go away from it for a bit.

westwood cant chip hey!!

gonna take the lead in a sec

Stenson looks like the hulk out there- guy is fuming!!!!!!!

Didn't check stats but seems last few holes play quite difficult.

omg- stenson has gone van de velde- the dude has made an 8!!

Shocker for Stenson, not sure what his ruling was but seems to have flustered him completely.

Westwood's chance to keep his foot down. I hope!
DC starting to leak oil.

Can we have an update on Stenson please?

Score or ruling? He scored an 8 at the last.