PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

i can see westy having one on his mental rounds- had 4 in the last 5 months- cant see him messing up the back like tiger and stenson with his long game- 13 and 15 are like meat and two veg to him

Donald simply uninspired. It's not like he's missing two footers. But, hey, Tiger went 40 on an opening 9 a few years ago - so waaay early yet.

17 holes does not a round make -- tough going for Stenson.

A quality start for Tiger, but as I said about 17 .... not in the books yet.

Re Stenson - I think he asked for a ruling re landing in footprints in pine needles on 18. Didn't get relief.

the 18th is playing tough today, that or alot of players are just losing there mind out there.

What happened? Can only see the scoring...

almost every player under par has dropped at least one shot on the last- and tiger has just dumped it in the trees

Hook drive, second shot from pine needles punched forward but not out of pine needles, third topped from pine needles, fourth over green, pitch back failed to reached green, putt from off green went screaming past, putt back up missed and then holed out. Is that 8?

Who is Chappel? The new Micheel?

Cheers, I'm never

what a round from jimenez!

had tiger in his pocket

Rumours that Stenson has been disqualified by the Augusta National membership for referring to the patrons as a "mob". Payne apparently threw his eagle "goblets" at him.

Not too bad from Donald in the end, 75 won't be out of it, almost everyone having trouble on the last three holes.

Nice to see Rory with a smile on his face.

smile just got bigger

... oh dear... he's going to the 10th tee now!!!!!!!

So the "mob" is the white racist bigots running the elitist KKK club? Truth hurts eh?

What's the weather update? Any sign of a storm heading in and will it halt play today?

and ....
the same result as last year!

in all honesty he is playing decent- keeping it steady, should be able to get out of it at worse with a bogey

EmmDee57 wrote:What's the weather update? Any sign of a storm heading in and will it halt play today?

not sure- however i very much doubt it- it looks fine out there- not much wind and bluish skies

go poults!! under par- keeping it steady, he really likes this course

Sky just said rain in Atlanta, heading towards course.

A very predictable push off the tee on 10 for master Mcilroy PD. I think Stenson must have looked at th leaderboard walkinh to the 18th tee :'(

Sky now goes 3D, but say they are OK re weather.

got the 3d on lol

wow some of the best 3d depth i have seen, crystal as well

I noticed the HD was good, is the 3D as good as the improvement from normal to HD?

its proper 3d.. it really is.

id say its different- i could understand it annoying people- however you can see the undulations better, stensons ball that popped over the green hit me in the head and the golfers that you are focused on are out of the screen!

McIlroy makes par at 10!!!!!!
Thanks M/O

Its amazing being able to see the undulations- its as if 3d was made for golf coverage. Its getting better and better, it has to be seen to be belived and you have to give it abit of time.

Great hook shot from the pine needles by bubba

Go Louis. You don't want to let him get a lead at a major, could win at a canter.

so what were they saying about Oosty the other day...?

mysti

Calm it down man, some of us are suffering without even having the golf on TV. All I have is sky go.

mc you dont understand - i am seeing augusta for the first time. even though i have seen it 25 times- It feels like i am there

You are a real git mysti.

go ousty-- knew he was decent.

but go westy more!!

What is all this mad talk about donald being to short to win here. what a ridiculas argument- is mike weir,zach jonson or schartzel much longer than donald and at the same time do they have as good a short game or putting stroke on form- and at the same time he has top 5'd it without playing well!!!

sorry mc.Its just the first time i have been truely happy with my extravagant purchase and i have had it for over a year

Dq for Luke?

Don't think he's too short, but he has to be driving as well as he has done recently. Being short and offline isn't fun, I should know, it's the trademark of my golf.

ban_bam wrote:Dq for Luke?

you serious

because i wondered what was going on - his scoire changed to 1 over on one leaderboard

has he signed the wrong score!!

mystiroakey wrote:sorry mc.Its just the first time i have been truely happy with my extravagant purchase and i have had it for over a year

I feel I must concur fully with this statement. I bought a 3D tv last month no idea why I did as no real reason to have 3D. HOWEVER I have now, its truly magnificent the contours and feel!

Sounds like it is a possibility

"Bay City Roller" collar. Love it.

ban_bam wrote:Sounds like it is a possibility

well lets hope not hey!!

I'm never wrong wrote:"Bay City Roller" collar. Love it.

Bruce probably thinks thats a "hip" referance for the kids... although i am looking forward to "jim'll fix it" later...

I can't keep up with the latest street talk

Mega storms south-east of the course. Let's hope they stay there.
Don't want no lightning.

Anyone know the scoop on Lukey?

luck evens out for westy on 15! sweet.. landed short on 15 and stayed dry!

Lol "IM NEVER WRONG",

what the heck is westy doing- agian playing the best golf out there- yet leaving shot after shot on the course!!

i hope it doent get to him - coz he should still be in the lead by end of play

Sounds like the scorer may have misread a 5 for a 3 on one of the holes and also the 75 for a 73. Hopefully its all rommy.

So what did luke actually shoot, 73 or 75?