PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

mysti

Is there a bit of technology you don't own?

And if you dont mind me asking what do you do for a job?

Mac,
The greens will start to dry out now, there's only so much the Sub Air can do when the place is flooded as it basically was by Wednesday morning.


The cut today will be all about the leader - only 44 golfers advance to Round 3, and everyone within TEN shots of the lead.

What does everyone think the best score through Round 2 might be?

Would think Lee will do very well to break 70 again, which would mean all the "2 overs" will have to play par golf or better today.

i have everything lol

I am a director, electrical testing, fire extinguisher servicing, fire risk assesments etc- basically try and stick to services which dont require much outlay, allthough we do the odd installation. My day is spent doing what ever i want in fairness- but then i am pushed into doing the VAT or the wages,books, or dealing with engineers,meetings, sales, or i go out on jobs- i do anything and everything when needed- My firm isnt massive but it ticks along

Do people think the Masters should become a bigger field like the other majors or is it unique to have such a limited field?

Benson we have been discussing that over the last weeks weeks in a lot of detail.

Nothing wrong with bringing it back up mind. I dunno personally . I am in two minds.

pros.

1. i like the eccentricity of doing it there way
2. It becomes easier for the best to win- therefore a better list of champs
3. it helps keep the tourny scheduleing on time(sometimes the masters is hit with bad weather)

cons.

1. is it fair !


my problem is more about the invites to players like lyle and the invites to certain players outside the top 50 that dont deserve to be there on merit but helps to sele the masters to emmerging markets.

if the masters just had the top 80- plus the last years top 15- id be very happy with the smaller field!

I'm mostly fine with how it is.
There is some self-adjustment and hopefully Lyle and Stads will pay the price after their ignominious performances yesterday!

Yeah it kind of is a disgrace having past champions come back when they can no longer compete to be honest when you have players who have won majors in the past 10 years not in the field.

What I find interesting is that the likes of Lyle and Stadler seem to turn up year after year, hack around and apparently have no shame whatsoever. Lyle was +14 for heavens sake. I'm pretty confident I could do better than that.

Yes, kwini, I'd say the leader will be around -8 with quite a batch in the -3 to -5 zone. As far as I could see, only 1 player, Furyk, had a bogey-free round, so I'd say a 67 would make a very good score again.

Agreed Benson, to think Els didnt get an invite & you have O'Meara pull out with injury Lyle Stads etc punting it round... Not really the best possible field.

i am hoping westy can take advantage of the course again- but i will be happy with a 69 from i suppose..

The great thing about rory and woods isnt really there scores, but the confidence they will both have gained from there first rounds- both will feel like they have got away with murder and that is only a good thing for them-I expect woods to get to 2 under and rors to get to 5..

I'm worried only by one of my master's pool picks, KJ Choi. Other than that, this thing is wide open. It will be very interesting come Sunday if Lee and Luke or any top golfer who has yet to win a major are battling it out late. I still look for Rory and Tiger to make their presence known before all is said and done.

I think all majors should be pretty limited field - but there are a few changes I think could be made to the masters field, based on the categories in place:

1) Why invite top 8 from US open, but only top 4 from pga/open?
2) Too pro-PGAtour in many categories: you have the top 30 on PGA money list, all those making tour champ and all regular event winners. But there are no equivalent criterion for the European/Japanese tours, when the event is supposedly co-sanctioned. This wouldn't make too much difference admittedly but for example take Alexander Noren who has won twice and finished 14th in the RTD2011, I would say his achievements are greater than many who made tour championship.
3) I'm not too bothered by inviting past champions, since for many young stars they may feel playing with one of their heroes is a great moment and is one reward for qualifying. But I do think they should maybe put some sort of cap on it (this year isn't too bad, most of them have performed adequately or have won recently enough to justify their place)

O'Hair at the front of the bus this morning, Sr, par for him, doubles for his partners.

Don't you think Rory and Tiger have already made their presence felt? Just by being there??

Only way to dispel that for the leaders is to keep increasing their advantage; only four/five strokes after all.

Luke needs a couple of rounds in the sixties just to be anywhere close to contention come Easter Sunday.

Looks like those with later tee times may get the best of the weather - drying out around lunchtime. Mind you, if there are electrical storms, no one's playing until later!

No chance of "electric storms" later, 3putt; it's clearing out now, just cool and blustery.
Double for Lyle on the first hole - I've seen Lyle when he's steaming and it's not a pretty sight. Face like a thundercloud and all that. Who would complain if he walked off the course and hot-footed it to Billy Payne's throne to notify him he wouldn't be bringing his clubs next year?

Lee was imperial yesterday, his demeanour reminded me of Lee in 2010 as I followed him and Poults for about an hour. He was looking very calm, calculated and oozing confidence then and looked very much like that yesterday... Luckily Phil is now some way back compared to then, so omens are good for Lee to go one better... But I would agree with other comments I heard, if the course dries up next rounds, things can get more complicated fairly quickly...

Not surprisingly, yesterday hole #1 was the toughest on the course as Gonzo was reminded this morning. Quick recovery with birdie at the 2nd though...

The masters.com leaderboard is struggling to accommodate Sandy Lyle's scores...

Looks quite windy from the forecast. A 67 could be an excellent round.

WOW!!! Lyle got a birdie at the 2nd, watch out Lee...

And Woosie birdied the first two!

Laird also two under and he needs to keep that pace up just to get back into the tournament.

Oosthuizen the first of the leaders out, and he pars #1.

https://twitter.com/#!/JamesHaddockSSN/status/188231962115325953/photo/1

I found this on twitter.

Double for Oosthuizen on the second, which makes it almost a triple. Not at all happy about that.

Oosty pars the toughest hole (1st) and then double-bogeys the easiest one (2nd)...

For the Record, As recently as 2009 (just three years ago) Sandy Lyle shot 72-70-73-71 and finished T20th in the Masters. He also made the cut in the 2008 Masters.

Tom Watson, at age 59, lose in a playoff at the Open Championship. Also in 2009.

We saw Jack Nicklaus, at age 58, finish in T6 in the Masters in 1998.

The number 1 qualification for an invite to the Masters is "Lifetime Tournament Champions" I really can not understand why people are obsessing over their invites. The Masters is not a defined field size, Stadler, Lyle, etc are NOT taking a spot from a deserved player. If Lyle did not play, there would be 94 players instead of 95 players this week.

The field is elastic, it will stretch to accommodate additional players, if they qualify.

And SirBenson, it looks like the latest starters today have the best of the conditions.

GPB,
What you say about size of field is only about 90% true.
Payne doesn't like any more than about 98 golfers in the field.
If he continued to pander to the ceremonial no-hopers, he would be more stringent on offering places to PGA Tour winners.
That's already one of the significant bones of contention regarding the realigned PGA Tour season: The Fall Series tournaments want their champions to receive full FedEx points and a Masters invitation.

Somehow sky managed to get Jack Nicklaus as a pundit for the first part of their show yesterday and he had some interesting points about how he went about winning a major. He said he never attacked for birdies and just waited for others to fall away, if he was up against a Trevino or a Watson he knew second may be the only option.

Butch then said tiger also used the game plan of letting everyone else slip up and made sure he just kept getting pars.

I kind of like the arrogance shown by both men in assuming that their peers would just wilt under the pressure of major Sunday. I think we have to admit this has worked well for them both.

The winner will not likely get to much lower than -9/-10 so using the tiger/jack strategy the likes of lee and Rory should just rely on par 5 form and wait for the others to fall.

If the pack up to around +1 continue to exist in high numbers and no one gets out to about -8 today we are going to see a very good finish.

Impressed with the resolve of Poulter and Garcia to hold it together and stay in the hunt.

McLaren wrote:Somehow sky managed to get Jack Nicklaus as a pundit for the first part of their show yesterday and he had some interesting points about how he went about winning a major. He said he never attacked for birdies and just waited for others to fall away, if he was up against a Trevino or a Watson he knew second may be the only option...

He also said something like... "I always say that Major championships are the easiest tournaments to win", to Monty's visible and immediate discomfort who was sitting beside him and who said "Oh, right, thanks for that!". Jack then tried (I think) to find a way out, but probably only managed to rub more salt into Monty's well known wound... " I mean, once you know how to do it..."

Looks like Laird and Reavie have played through the 3-some of O'Hair, F'Dez and Verplunk. You don't see that every day, but makes perfect sense letting the two-some go on their way.

If Crane stays up there in contention, it will ruin my weekend.

I too find Crane an irksome individual.

Kwini, I know what the Green Jackets have said. In last year's pre tourney press conference, Billy Payne said that were looking at reducing the field. The most obvious (to me) is to take out the TC exemption. One player from the last three years have garnered an invite from the Tour Championship but parlaying a high finish in one of the playoff events (w/ inflated FE points). (Leishman, Streelman, Reavie).

But they did not change any of the qualifications for 2012. And they even invited someone extra! So apparently their words are more spit than substance!

I already posted this somewhere, I think winners of all events that have a 40+ OWGR Rating be invited. I think Chalmers, Rock, Hoey would have been ivntied, and Stallings, Frazar would not have been invited. (I might have missed a couple)

But the Tounament Champion Invite is not going to go away! So there is no use obsessing over it.

Looks like King Louis is abdicating . . . . .

Lyle off to a flyer... only +2 after 5!

With all due respect, yes he finished T20 only a few years ago, but I bet any average senior tour player could produce such result if he had 20 tries. The same goes for his Open results. It's a shame.

Scoring just as difficult today if not more...Louis moving backwards.

Oosthuizen on a massive slide but Zach Johnson seems to have the Lord on his side again... there definitely seem to be more slipping backwards than climbing.

McLaren wrote:

Butch then said tiger also used the game plan of letting everyone else slip up and made sure he just kept getting pars.

With all due respect to Harmon, TW has never won a Masters by coming from behind in the final round. He is 0 fer whatever when not the 54 hole leader or co-leader. He is 14 out 15 when he is leading or co-leading. YE Tang

Nicklaus did win many of majors coming from behind.

Good start for Lee, Now let's birdie #2 and put some space between you and the chasers (and hurdlers of course).

3putt
I wonder if Crane and Johnson have the same god, or if their gods are different. You never know. Quite like Zach but hope Crane's progess is crucified this Good Friday, with no resurrection allowed.

18 holes Thursday without a bogey for Furyk.
Opens up with a Friday Five!

pedro wrote:Lyle off to a flyer... only +2 after 5!

With all due respect, yes he finished T20 only a few years ago, but I bet any average senior tour player could produce such result if he had 20 tries. The same goes for his Open results. It's a shame.

Lol

thedamned3putt wrote:Oosthuizen on a massive slide but Zach Johnson seems to have the Lord on his side again... there definitely seem to be more slipping backwards than climbing.

snapshot -
14 going backwards
9 level
9 climbing

kwinigolfer wrote:Good start for Lee, Now let's birdie #2 and put some space between you and the chasers (and hurdlers of course).

3putt
I wonder if Crane and Johnson have the same god, or if their gods are different. You never know. Quite like Zach but hope Crane's progess is crucified this Good Friday, with no resurrection allowed.

Shotrock wrote:I'm worried only by one of my master's pool picks, KJ Choi. Other than that, this thing is wide open. It will be very interesting come Sunday if Lee and Luke or any top golfer who has yet to win a major are battling it out late. I still look for Rory and Tiger to make their presence known before all is said and done.

Same here. All my picks are doing well except KJ Choi. I initially had Jiminez, which I later changed to KJ. Serves me right for not following intuitions.

poulter 2 under par

dustbin ,the crane and duffers on a charge for the home fans mind

kwinigolfer wrote:Quite like Zach but hope Crane's progess is crucified this Good Friday, with no resurrection allowed.

I don't think the supply of Roman legionaires will be short in this forum...

Cut Prediction anyone?? Top 44 & ties plus the 10 shot rule...............I think the 10 shot rule might come into play.

Here we go. Im saying +4 (on the 10 shot rule) but hope Lee gets to 7 or 8..........................

It's Johnson's "Young Tom Kite" look I can't stand, that and his deluded beliefs in god.

The early movers - Poulter, Dufner, Byrd have all picked up 2 or 3 shots in the first few holes. Given yesterday's scoring, I'd expect them to leak a few but pick a few more up, so a 67ish looks possible and if Lee plays a good solid round, I'd still expect the cut at +2.

Zach Johnson definitely an under-rated golfer- is very consistent and is a proven winner on the PGA tour (except last year).
He never struck me as too annoying in his religious beliefs, all I remember is him saying he was happy to win but the resurrection was more important - seems hardly fair to hold him being a devout christian agaisnt him.

Virtual drop shot for westy on 2.. Only a par. Everyone else up there has birded it. Including duffshot who joins him at the top