PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

Stenson may win this, after a quadruple bogey on the 18th on day 1. You will have to salute him if he does.

Sky coverage is pitiful. They've got all sorts going on on the course and they're broadcasting wibble from the pundits in the studio ffs. SHOW SOME GOLF! Hope the beeb deliver in 2 minutes time.

Watching the Amen Corner feed is far more preferable to their live/Tiger feed.

Frannie Molinari!!!! When was the last time The Masters winner was a resident of London??

thedamned3putt wrote:Sky coverage is pitiful. They've got all sorts going on on the course and they're broadcasting wibble from the pundits in the studio ffs. SHOW SOME GOLF! Hope the beeb deliver in 2 minutes time.

Watching the Amen Corner feed is far more preferable to their live/Tiger feed.

Not allowed to show anything much yet by the powers that be!

Frannie and Rose are pushing each other along, fantastic effort from both, 3rd now! Hard to know where to look next...

Enough of the webcast. Live now on my 60" screen.

Horrendous start for Sergio & Rory.

Sky cant show any golf until 8.30 by the masters committee.

Leff wrote:Enough of the webcast. Live now on my 60" screen.

That's about the size of my front window of my house.

What happened to the softer grass??? Hugely unlucky for Justin....

aliss or 3d?

tough choice!

OK... time to leave Rory and Sergio aside and concentrate on Lee, Stenson, Rose, Frany, etc... Dufffner coming down as well...

Rose's ball rolling back off 15th green into the water there was very unfairIf you've got to create a challenge by making them putt on sheets of glass, that's rubbish. Bae's approach to 11 was also almost daft. Landed it really nicely short of the pin from height with a bit of a fade and it ran right through the green but fortunately stopped short of disappearing down the bank.

Definitely see the possibility of -5 leading again at the end of this round. As someone above rightly said, tension doesn't necessarily equal excitement.

come on rosey

thedamned3putt wrote:
Definitely see the possibility of -5 leading again at the end of this round. As someone above rightly said, tension doesn't necessarily equal excitement.

Huh? Think this is shaping up to be a massively exciting day....

loving it myself

27 players within 4 shots of the lead. at 3;50 pm Augusta time. Incredibly packed leaderboard.

Why is Michael Vaughan on the TV? Not even a good pundit on the sport he played...

rose a little bit robbed-Hope he keeps going, this isnt over yet..

Show more golf!!!

was that a 4 putt- ffs

Top editing there - here's Mahan's tee shot to 16. And here's Molinari's putt on 16.

McIlroy and Garcia have imploded....

rory gone

Mahan is one ugly mofo. He looks like Nikki Lauda, only more burnt.

Almost everything they're showing is on tape delay.

But St.Padraig is right back into the shake-up.

I was on Paddy Power last week about to put a tenner on Mahan at 33-1 when the site crashed .... didn't have time to go back and do it later. Beginning unto get a bit worried.
Phil at -3.....Westy at -4. It's a funny old game.

Westy needs to sort this out- gonna be tough to take if he doesnt win this- out playing the field by a country mile- yet cant buy a putt

Sorry to see the Most Interesting Man falling away too.

Kuchar and Oosthuizen with the lead, I think that's five different leaders so far today, is anyone counting?

Stenson is looking pretty formidable. Nearly put some money on him. Thank goodness I picked Hanson.
Poults going along nicely too much to Diggers delight

Rory, amazing ball striker, bit of a mental midget on the greens thus far today. Can't figure that out.

This thing gets bunched up like this tomorrow, it will be an amazing final day.

super_realist wrote:Stenson is looking pretty formidable. Nearly put some money on him. Thank goodness I picked Hanson.
Poults going along nicely too much to Diggers delight

If Poulter wins I shall be retiring from the site, the hurt will be too much to take.

I know mcilroy likes the odd chat with an aging pro- I reakon he might have shared a pint with lyle last night.

When Ken Brown does his extra pieces to camera, does anyone else think he reminds them of Fred Pontin advertising his holiday camps with the phrase "Book early?"

A par-5 bogey for Rory. Whassup?

He won't win Diggers so don't worry, but he's showing a bit of steel out there, ill give him that. Great short game.

I think stenson is going to take this. Hopefully KUCHAR will disappear.

stenson is also one exiting golfer, amazing stuff- up and down like a resident at broadmoor.

Hanson seems to be following Stenson shot for shot a group behind, putting in the exact same spots....

That'll be another 3 putt for Rory then. Head completely gone, again.

Come on Stenson got him on 175/1....

Since my hopes in Serg and Rors are well and truly stuffed.

hanson over stenson i think- stenson is proper wired. but going for lee, playing the best golf- just needs the putts to drop

The American commentators taking Louis seriously yet?

Nice to get a glimpse of Lawrie, still right in there. No idea how he managed to leave it up there on 9.

pmick is on a charge. ffs

Wow what a shot from Sergio... He should just play from behind trees every shot.

However I would love to see westy v pmick again!

Rose stinks up the finish ... just when I thought he might have been a factor. Rory and Tiger could be tied by end of day ... or maybe Rory and World #1!

Here comes Phil.

Watch out for Lee ... just a hunch.

super_realist wrote:He won't win Diggers so don't worry, but he's showing a bit of steel out there, ill give him that. Great short game.

I think stenson is going to take this. Hopefully KUCHAR will disappear.

In some ways I'd like to see him in it with 6 to go to see if he does have the cojones people give him credit for.

Was sorely tempted to put a quid on Padraig for low Irishman on Thursday morning, regretting not taking it now....

Poddy looking for major no.4.

westwood got the yips

Lee - You won't win your first major by missing those putts! Less than two feet??

Lack of concentration? Or just pressure?

That is shocking from Westwood, Poulter could be the leading Englishman come the end of today.

its getting to him.. guy knows the crack- should be 10 shots better allready- he is gone mentally. if he can turn this around i iwll be amazed

Bogey from Stenson. 2 Europeans in the top 8. Meh.

I think Vaughan might be an even worse interviewer than Lineker used to be. "Nice to see you in another of those caps Hunter, quite trendy aren't they?".