PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

so donald is either dq'd or has to take the 5 !!

if he shot a 75 he is dq'd

if he shot a 73 then he isnt dq'ed but has to take a 75..

is that right!

Westwood will have learned to have a lot of patience, especially round this track. as long as hes not to hard on himself he'll be in the mix come sunday.

Sky showing him at 73 as does Masters app

pga website showing him at 3 over, and so did sky

73, he's +1

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/golf/article-2125830/MASTERS-2012-Luke-Donald-faced-disqualification.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

75

I cant believe this.

I picked poults in the first fantasy event- and he loses first round because he becomes ill over night.

I pick woods in the next who retires injured

I then pick westy , then change my mind last minute to donald who gets d'qed (yet westy is leading...)


if anyone else thinks they curse picks- get in line!!

BBC Saying luke ok was smudge on card causing the confusion.75

It depends, a player isn't responsible for the addition just the individual scores. Luke feels that he shot and signed for a 75, hopefully the scorecard will back him up and it was when the numbers were noted onto the computer system that caused a 3 to become a 5 and the score to be recorded as a 73 not a 75. However if the scorecard says 3 not 5 for that hole he is screwed, signed for the wrong score; see ya!

Edit - confirmed it was a 5, score adjusted to 75. Panic over.

thank gawdd!!

75 confirmed no Dq also confirmed thank goodness for Luke

Westwood in the lead as the first drops of rain are seen

go westy 5 under

mystiroakey wrote:I cant believe this.

I picked poults in the first fantasy event- and he loses first round because he becomes ill over night.

I pick woods in the next who retires injured

I then pick westy , then change my mind last minute to donald who gets d'qed (yet westy is leading...)


if anyone else thinks they curse picks- get in line!!

karma getting you even for owning that 3d tv perhaps

ban_bam wrote:

mystiroakey wrote:I cant believe this.

I picked poults in the first fantasy event- and he loses first round because he becomes ill over night.

I pick woods in the next who retires injured

I then pick westy , then change my mind last minute to donald who gets d'qed (yet westy is leading...)


if anyone else thinks they curse picks- get in line!!

karma getting you even for owning that 3d tv perhaps

well at least i can scrub the last one off- luke isnt out !! yet!

comeon westy finish up! make your birdie and quick down the last before the sirens!!

what a round of golf by him in terms of his tee to green- class above the field..

Shocker from el nino...

Almost. 5 under. Good round. I'm off, goodnight.

rory could have a bad last few - wind is picking up! bubbs is losing the plot abit! gotta love bubbs mind

Growing up in Ulster, n shootin 61 round Royal Portrush at 16, I think Rory should be able to handle bad weather.

Go on Lee!!!

be the ball- rory is the first to admit that he hates bad weather.

People have a go at Poults for what he wears- yes is abit out there - however its co-ordinated, its stylish , it allways goes together- look at mahan - what the heck- an illumioius hat and belt with grey trousers and a blue shirt with illumous flecks- the guy is trying so hard to accessorise yet fails big time!

What is his motivation for the bright yellow- does he want to put his opponents off. Surely all he is gonna acheive is look like a goon and attract insects!

Nice bird from Rory; he's right in this, double bogey be damned.

If he keeps this up and finishes top 5 then Hanson could all but secure his PGA tour card for next season.

Only a casual viewer of golf and even more casual player.

Have £20 on Rory - Hows my bet looking?

Strongback wrote:Only a casual viewer of golf and even more casual player.

Have £20 on Rory - Hows my bet looking?

should have put it on after this round.

he isnt fav any more but still well in the hunt- 4 back from westy end of round, a lesser players odds would be 50/1 , but he is still around 8/1

Strongback,
Win or ten pound e.w.?
Either way, Rory is right in this, very good position, good bet.
(PS: I reserve the right to change this opinion round about early afternoon Augusta time Friday. Looks good though!)

I took Rory at 6/1 before he hit a ball.

It looks like he's still in it. Can't win it on the first day and all that.

Sandy shot a big number. Does he get any joy of showing and hitting 80+ every year.

in it for the potential of a pay day i suppose

Double post.

mystiroakey wrote:in it for the potential of a pay day i suppose

Would they cover his costs or is out of pocket if he doesn't make the cut.

I couldn't find time to watch or follow until now.

What happened with Stenson on the 18th?

Maybe I can look up one of the sports websites, but I would rather hear from one of you knowledgeable fans.

A sponser or two might pay him abit by just attending- he wont get any invitation fee

stenson basically went looney tunes.

he sprayed it all over the back 9 and didnt even hit one fairway- lucky to only be 1 over for it by the 18th tee

His tee shot went straight in the bondai, couldnt chop it out well enough and ended up being in a bit of a didgy lie in the wood chips- stenson wanted a drop(he said his feet were in casual water)- the stewards wouldn t give him one, the lie and stance didnt seem that bad- however he seemed to be fuming with the decsion and he made it harder than it was- he got a rescue club out and topped it- then he started smashing up the ground around him with his golf club.. He then flew his 4th over the green, chipped up short of the green, putted past the hole and missed the one coming back.. guy basically blew up!

EmmDee57 wrote:I'd follow Sandy Lyle if I was there.

I see you wouldn't have been disappointed if you did.

mystiroakey wrote:stenson basically went looney tunes.

he sprayed it all over the back 9 and didnt even hit one fairway- lucky to only be 1 over for it by the 18th tee

His tee shot went straight in the bondai, couldnt chop it out well enough and ended up being in a bit of a didgy lie in the wood chips- stenson wanted a drop(he said his feet were in casual water)- the stewards wouldn t give him one, the lie and stance didnt seem that bad- however he seemed to be fuming with the decsion and he made it harder than it was- he got a rescue club out and topped it- then he started smashing up the ground around him with his golf club.. He then flew his 4th over the green, chipped up short of the green, putted past the hole and missed the one coming back.. guy basically blew up!

Thanks, Mysti. What a mess! Hope he can forget this nightmare and start fresh tomorrow.

Shot of the day http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/golf/17594320
it was actually a practice shot by John Senden, who skimmed the ball three times over a water hazard on to the green.

95 golfers teed off in Round 1 and Round 2 will begin with 87 inside the cut-line of top 44, plus all golfers within 10 shots of Lee Westwood's lead.

Biggest surprises for me?
Good:
Lawrie, Jimenez, F.Molinari, all -3
Mike Weir (even) and Tim Clark (+1) returning after debilitating injury.
The weather.

Bad:
Luke Donald keeps high standards and +3 was very disappointing.
Jason Day +4
KJ Choi +5 (after being one under par going to the 9th)
Immelman and Quiros +6
Lyle and Stadler should exit the stage gracefully.

A cool rain is due to start before dawn Friday and may continue through mid-morning. Breezy with skies clearing around noon, but never really warming up.

not surprised by jimenez, weir or quiros.

very surprised by donald and lawie.

Surprised overall by how the players coped with that course, especially the way that westy made it look so easy and still left 5 putts hanging on the lip or shaveing the hole.

I fully expect doanld to go lowish and make the cut- however i dont think he can get past a 10 under total from here. therefore if westy or even ousty play in the same vein at best doanld could get a top 5!

Donalds best chance is if the weather really picks up and makes the course even harder than it played yesterday!

Out of the other favourites Woods,Coco and Rose are well in this game.

i think mahan and mikleson are shot out there by the way they looked on the course. I also cant see bubba maintaing any sort of consitancy..

I think by watching sky 3d I got different commentary- it was very pro yank, and i really didnt like it- the 3d was amazing mind!

However they were praising pmick for practasing his chipping constantly over the last week!! In all fairness i cant agree- he missed 12 greens out there and really should have pracitised his long game..

There kept saying how doanld cant win a masters and was never a contender because he is to short- err wtf are they on about. 1. he is longer than many past champs and 2 in form he has a better short game than them, plus he top 5'ed last year without playing to well!

There were saying that they were surprised by westy being up there.

I think there were abit gutted to see the leaderboard chock full of europeans and long may it continue!

Looking back it was a surprise how soft the greens were and it may have equalised the field by negating the benefits of those playing really well and those that know the course better than the rest. Players were just firing in the vicinity of the pin knowing the softer conditions would stop the ball.

We all know the first day is more about who takes themselves out of contention, but I reckon anyone who can get it back to level today is still in with a chance.

I will be surprised if anyone wins who not under after 36.

especially with top names on par or better after day 1. got to say even at this point its 50/50 wether one of the big 5 will win(even though 2 are almost out of it)

Not really that much of a surprise about "soft greens", but they should start drying out pretty fast from now on. No appreciable rain overnight apparently.

Friday forecast: Currently there are showers in the area but they will move out this morning. Mid-50's for the early starters rising into the mid-60's later this afternoon with some sunshine. Quite breezy though.

Saturday and Sunday should be gorgeous with really good scoring conditions. Course firming up, and speed of the greens will be course's defence.

Why no surprise?

They have under soil drying technology so why not use it? Seeing the ball almost pitch deeply into the green like this were the honda or something is not what I want to see at a major. Whats the point in being able to dry out the greens if they dont use it?

The greens where dryer early MC(shown on the 13th hole), I think they did use the technology- didnt they? and for some reason the greens got softer or longer throughout the day

Really enjoyed yesterday, trickier than I expected and I prefer a test like it was yesterday rather then the birdie fest Phil said it would be....Great stuff from Harrington yesterday, a round in the 60s today would be nice!

The 12th in particular was getting hammered by the balls coming in, great chunks flying out of the green. I guess it is just personal preference but I would rather see easier pins and harder greens.

We were also robbed of that great Augusta sight of ball finishing 30 yards away from where they landed on the green, sometimes to a player’s advantage, sometime not.

I am of course assuming they have quite a significant level of control over the aeration system; this may not be the case.

I thought the pins were tough- well there were on 11,12,13,16 anyway.

but the greens were abit soft- not sure if they could have done more to dry em out

Any other golf nerds got the Masters app? Im very impressed with it actually... no vids of Luke tho

lol got the app on my iphone, me ipad and my android!!

there are all decent..