PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

Nothing wrong with being a devout Christian providing you keep it to yourself.

Nobody wants to hear about it.

mystiroakey wrote:Virtual drop shot for westy on 2.. Only a par. Everyone else up there has birded it. Including duffshot who joins him at the top

I'm yet to see any evidence that Dufner won't choke if in this position on Sunday (or even Saturday for that matter).

LastDamnation wrote:

mystiroakey wrote:Virtual drop shot for westy on 2.. Only a par. Everyone else up there has birded it. Including duffshot who joins him at the top

I'm yet to see any evidence that Dufner won't choke if in this position on Sunday (or even Saturday for that matter).

<Gag, splutter, double bogey> Well predicted!

Last - Hard to argue with that ... and I've yet to see Lee, Luke and countless others finish off a major for that matter. Come Sunday afternoon with the green jacket in your gunsights, it's an entirely different game. Ask Kenny Perry.

Ahmen corner starting on red button in 5 mins dudes

LastDamnation wrote:Zach Johnson definitely an under-rated golfer- is very consistent and is a proven winner on the PGA tour (except last year).
He never struck me as too annoying in his religious beliefs, all I remember is him saying he was happy to win but the resurrection was more important - seems hardly fair to hold him being a devout christian agaisnt him.

Oh I don't know. Decent golfer though - uncomplicated.

Ryo starts with a triple.
Wonder how Billy Payne would fix it so's he's around for the weekend if Ryo misses the traditional cut?
O'Hair going nicely under the radar (not Shotrock's though).

Kwin - Indeed! Hang in there Sean ... heading out to play 18 soon, SOH updates will be on-course happenings. No cell phone policy on course certain to be violated!

What is it with Ryo these days? Boredom? Burnout?

Sr do u know ohAIR ?

Mysti - I do. Acquaintance really. A quality person and a heck of a golfer compared to us mortals!

I thought you might - good luck to him

btw he is live on ahmen corner coverage at the moment

I know Bucky O'Hare!

newsflash sandy hits the 12 in reg- only 20 over at present

kwinigolfer wrote:...I wonder if Crane and Johnson have the same god, or if their gods are different. You never know. Quite like Zach but hope Crane's progess is crucified this Good Friday, with no resurrection allowed.

Since you've started to confess your Ben Crane fantasies in here, can I tell you about mine? Thanks!
It relates to his posture during his putting routine... Reminds me for some reason of Bishop Brennan (nothing to do with his devout Christian beliefs, I think...) from the TV series Father Ted. Is it only me or you'd also love to be Father Ted for a second when you see him doing that...?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ted_kicks_Bishop_Brennan.jpg

Apart from all the disagreeably hypocritical stuff about Ben Crane (what's he doing playing golf for money on Good Friday?), and playing at 16 r.p.m. when everyone else is spinning round at least at 45 r.p.m., he thinks he's funny.

Memo to Ben: You're not funny, not in the remotest way - There are more weapons of mass destruction in Iraq than laughs at Crane's crass stupidity.

They should have snipers in the woods for people like Lyle, if you want to play at his age, fine, but if you go above 10 over, you get shot.

princedracula wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:...I wonder if Crane and Johnson have the same god, or if their gods are different. You never know. Quite like Zach but hope Crane's progess is crucified this Good Friday, with no resurrection allowed.

Since you've started to confess your Ben Crane fantasies in here, can I tell you about mine? Thanks!
It relates to his posture during his putting routine... Reminds me for some reason of Bishop Brennan (nothing to do with his devout Christian beliefs, I think...) from the TV series Father Ted. Is it only me or you'd also love to be Father Ted for a second when you see him doing that...?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ted_kicks_Bishop_Brennan.jpg

From that legendary episode entitled "Kicking Bishop Brennan up the ar$e".

I think he used Nicklaus as a template for it.

Goooooooo Roooooooooory!!!!!

rory goes to 3 under and favourite at the bookies.

westy still on 5 under

Helluva bird on #4.
Can't tell whether Lee is having a solid start, scrambling or missing opportunities.

Some guys are playing themselves out of Augusta, and Eddie Molinari and Hoover are at risk of joining them.

hoover is dust, lyle has dirtied his hopes.

westy needs to get a move on out there-Its not playing that hard!

That's an impressive comeback by Peter Hanson after doubling the first - birdie, birdie, birdie.

I really like the official Masters scoreboard giving you highlight videos of players' key holes.

Gutted i'm missing all the action. Got another 1 1/2 hours to go until the coverage starts on this side of the world.

I really like the official Masters scoreboard giving you highlight videos of players' key holes.

Nice one 3 putt. I'll make do with that for now!!

we havent got much action in the uk- just abit of ahmen corner on the red button- do you not have it on interactive

poulter plays shot of the week on 13!!

what a star

meanwhile gracia gets toi 3 under

No interactive over here yet. I get the ESPN coverage. It will suffice when it finally comes on!!

na na na na ...

Goooo Roooory!!! another birdie, one behind Lee and a par 5 coming!

I see Mr Lyle has 4 pars in a row!!

SERGIOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make that 5...

Westy misses one!

Rory's wasted his par 5s so far today, pitty... Lee drops a shot at 11th. Good to see Oosty steadying his ship in the end...

Is the water such a threat at 11? I've been watching Amen Corner on Sky's red button and not many people hit the green.

Sandy Lyle is in danger of missing the cut.

brilliant shot on 12 by westy- could be a bounce back

Leff wrote:Sandy Lyle is in danger of missing the cut.

thats my tourny over, do you suggest anything else to watch

Jas. [if you are about]
Which Hansen was Nick Mumford with, I thought it was Peter but not sure?

Deadly is a massive Sandy Lyle fan [I think he signed his whisky bottle] so some great banter next game.

mystiroakey wrote:

thats my tourny over, do you suggest anything else to watch

Paint drying.

Brilliant bird by westy- means the drop shot will not fester and on to the 13th.. With his game and that pin- he could get an eagle putt

mystiroakey wrote:

Leff wrote:Sandy Lyle is in danger of missing the cut.

thats my tourny over, do you suggest anything else to watch

Creamer ..

Players with 10 strokes of the leader will make the cut. This means, no many will miss the cut. Just a few like Sandy Lyle and Paul Casey.

i can see westy or mcilroy getting to 7

therefore 4 over could be a problem

What is it with Mcilroy and 10? The demons are yet to be banished.

moustache on furyks caddie-

Freddie Jac (68) the only golfer tp break 70 so far.

Not many surprises below the cut-line as things currently stand, but KJ Choi's collapse is a shocker.

Mark Wilson is the biggest disappointment among current top players.