PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

Vijay is having a roller-coaster ride there.

Just not sure that Mark Wilson is that much of a top player! Very poor record in big events. But Stricker is and he's +5 today after 8 holes. What's the deal with that?

Padraig Harrington went five par-5's before he finally bogeyed the 8th

Sandy Lyle finishes with a 78 today.

Same score as Simon Dyson, Alvaro Quiros from yesterday, Mark Wilson today, all top 50 players.

Its not like Lyle is shoot 103 like Billy Casper did a few years ago.

Kwini

9 top tens in nearly 20 years, it can come as no surprise that Stricker does not like the majors. I have no idea why. Do we know what the highest value event is that he has won in terms of OWGR points awarded?

McLaren wrote:Kwini

9 top tens in nearly 20 years, it can come as no surprise that Stricker does not like the majors. I have no idea why. Do we know what the highest value event is that he has won in terms of OWGR points awarded?

Presumably one of his playoff event wins.

McLaren wrote:Kwini

9 top tens in nearly 20 years, it can come as no surprise that Stricker does not like the majors. I have no idea why. Do we know what the highest value event is that he has won in terms of OWGR points awarded?

I would assume that'd be the WGC Accenture Matchplay.

Fred Couples going nice surely the only past champion that can actually compete. Sandy Lyle breaks 80 stop the press.

Shocking put from Tiger there :o

Mac,
Remember Stricker scarcely played any Majors for much of the middle part of his career.
Imagine his highest earning win was his WGC.

So much for past champions - Freddie one behind!

Fader: Snap

I am so glad to see 52 y.o. Freddie, a perennial crowd favourite, just one shot behind the leader.

I often feel I am the only person around who just cant warm to Couples. I must be a bad man.

You're a bad man, Mac.

And that was a pig's ear, Lee.

Dont mind Couples hes doing really well at 52.. Bout only player I havent had a bet on...

Westwood WTF??

Come on Sergio...

Very worrying from lee there on 18. Do we know if he has been holing well from 5 to 10 feet today? Doesn't see, like it based on that evidence.

Day pulled out...

Ryo has his plane revving up.
Hoping for a special invitation for 2013.

oh dear... that wasn't a very imperial finish from lee

he needs to make the most of his shots- jokes..

well its not all over, but he needs to dig deep.

top score could be 5 under- if donald can shot a 67!!!

Stricker won the Memorial last year, a OWGR 62 pointer

2009 Deustchebank was a 70 pointer
2007 Barclays was a 74 pointer

It looks like the WGC event in Australia was a 58 pointer.

Stricker seems to get a free pass from the discussion of "best player w/o a major". He did not get any of the criticism that Mickelson got in the summer of 2010 when he failed to get the #1 OWGR spot. (and he had nearly as many chances)

Another poor score from Clarke.. Not sure why im slightly surprised...

Sand

Maybe GPB or prince can confirm but I think clarke is well on his way to having the worst year after winning a major ever. Does that make him the worst major winner ever?

Id say so, I cant remember his last good round nevermind his last good tournament.

Men? IMO Darren Clarke is by far the worst.

some other bad ones: Wayne Grady, Michael Campbell, David Duval

Not men, but Hilary Lunke and Birdie Kim were terrible after their US Womens Open wins.

Cant believe how close that chip shot was from Garcia from being excellent..

What a great leaderboard as of 3:55 pm Augusta time!

Old Guard
New Guard
never have Been Guard.

I am optimistic about a FANTASTIC weekend.

And then there's Miguel Angel Jimenez.
The Most Interesting Man on the Leaderboard!

Is it just me or does Garcia always seem miserable these days? he used to be always be cheery and charismatic, the few years of putting woes seemed to have taken it out of him.

Believe it or not, Jack Nicklaus had poor years in 1979 (after winning the 78 Open Championship) and 1987, after his Masters win. 1987 he had one top 10 (T7 in the Masters) T15 was his best finished otherwise (Pebble Beach)

Campbell's flunk wasn't immediate though, he contended in the next two majors that year and won the World Matchplay too. Struggling to think of someone whose post-win year was as rubbish as Clarke's has been. Curtis maybe? Took him another couple of years to get comfortable on tour.

Certainly doesn't make Darren the worst major winner ever though, he has two WGCs for a start.

kwinigolfer wrote:And then there's Miguel Angel Jimenez.
The Most Interesting Man on the Leaderboard!

I stuck a quid on Miguel at 100/1 to be first round leader. Won't be too put out if I was a round out though, he's in my Yahoo team too for a start.

Anyone know why Day w/d'd?

Looks like the cut is going to be +5 by the 10 shot rule. Someone needs to get to -6

Only 4 players on the course at -2 or better and of those, Jimenez at -4, Stenson and Watney at -3, and Fankie M at -2.

kwinigolfer wrote:Anyone know why Day w/d'd?

Ankle injury apparently been hobbling since the 2nd today.

I think Day hurt his ankle while he was working out.

I think this "working out" is far over-rated. IMO, The Human Body is not designed to carry an extra 30 lbs of muscle mass 7 days a week 52 weeks year. the constant extra stress on the back, hips, knees, ankles and feet has to fatigue the joints.

Tiger was a 6'1" 150 lb skinny kid when he was an amateur. He has beefed up to 190+ lbs and IMO, that is a big contributing factor to his knee and achilles problems.

Not sure who looks more out of sorts: Donald or Woods?

Each could do with a dose of Stenson fortitude.

Brilliant from Lawrie great 3 birdies to finish

For once Tiger's interview line of it all being the putter's fault will be accurate.

Hell of a rescue job from Lawrie, still right in there. Likely to be an enormous weekend field, 64 inside the line as it stands.

NedB-H wrote:For once Tiger's interview line of it all being the putter's fault will be accurate.

Hell of a rescue job from Lawrie, still right in there. Likely to be an enormous weekend field, 64 inside the line as it stands.

I dunno about that, yes his putting has been dreadful but hes missed a lot of greens and fairways too. Hes miles off.

It's not often I can say hand on heart that I could hit a golf shot better than Woods but two of those 4 footer putts...I reckon so. Almost yippy to be honest.

Nice to see or should I say hear poor commentary continues from monty/critchley and harmon!

Monty: "19 out of 30 players used a belly putter at last years tour championship!" Might want to check your facts colin I'm no stato but even I know that to be wrong!

Butch: "I like Stenson and how nothing flusters him he just forgets it an moves on" that'll be the same guy who last year we saw throw his 3 wood(might have been driver) in a lake after a poor tee shot mid round, the same guy who snapped a club over his knee causing him a hand wound last year at another event, oh and the guy who took his frustration out on the pine needles at 18 yesterday on his way to a snowman!!! Yep good call Butch!

Critchley: gets even stating the bleeding obvious wrong

GPB wrote:I think Day hurt his ankle while he was working out.

I think this "working out" is far over-rated. IMO, The Human Body is not designed to carry an extra 30 lbs of muscle mass 7 days a week 52 weeks year. the constant extra stress on the back, hips, knees, ankles and feet has to fatigue the joints.

Tiger was a 6'1" 150 lb skinny kid when he was an amateur. He has beefed up to 190+ lbs and IMO, that is a big contributing factor to his knee and achilles problems.

Let's be honest, how many blokes weigh the same at 36 as they do at 19 ? I'd hazard a guess at less than 5%. I'm a skinny so and do and even I weigh over a stone more than I did when I was 20. People fill out naturally and better to be muscle than fat.

Has The Most Interesting Man in the World ever come to America and played a regular PGAT event? (non major, non WGC?)

Diggers, but TW had the added stress on his joints building up the muscle mass.

yes I weigh a lot more than I did when I was 20. a lot more. I am 51 now. But I don't have any problems with my feet, legs, and hips.

But to be fair that could just be your good luck. Gym work and improved muscle strength can help with injuries as well, so it's swings and roundabouts IMO.

Fader wrote:Nice to see or should I say hear poor commentary continues from monty/critchley and harmon!

Monty: "19 out of 30 players used a belly putter at last years tour championship!" Might want to check your facts colin I'm no stato but even I know that to be wrong!

Butch: "I like Stenson and how nothing flusters him he just forgets it an moves on" that'll be the same guy who last year we saw throw his 3 wood(might have been driver) in a lake after a poor tee shot mid round, the same guy who snapped a club over his knee causing him a hand wound last year at another event, oh and the guy who took his frustration out on the pine needles at 18 yesterday on his way to a snowman!!! Yep good call Butch!

Critchley: gets even stating the bleeding obvious wrong

If your not statto, why would monty just make that up? Seems high to me but it wouldnt surprise me.

What has happened to Tiger's game this week, every facet except his effort has been rotten

GPB,
The Most Interesting Man tried the Tour a dozen-ish years ago. Didn't like it all. No Spanish cured ham, and his cigars and Rioja habits were thought to be a bit infra dig. Back to Espana.

Lovely finish for Lawrie, wish they'd interview him.

GPB wrote:Has The Most Interesting Man in the World ever come to America and played a regular PGAT event? (non major, non WGC?)

Regular Tour Events played by the Mechanic according to pgatour.com:

1995: Kemper Open
1996: The International
1999: Players Championship, BellSouth Classic, St Jude Classic, The International
2000: Players Championship, BellSouthClassic, Buick Classic, Buick Open
2001: Phoenix Open, Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Buick Invitational, Bob Hope Classic, Nissan Open, Bay Hill Invitational, Players Championship, BellSouthClassic, St Jude Classic, Buick Classic
2002: Phoenix Open, Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Buick Invitational, Nissan Open, Tucson Open, Players Championship, Houston Open, BellSouthClassic, Kemper Open, Buick Classic, Hartford Open, St Jude Classic, John Deere Classic, The International, Michelob Championship, Las Vegas Classic, Disney Classic
2004: Buick Classic
2005: Players Championship, BellSouth Classic
2006: Players Championship, BellSouth Classic
2007: Houston Open
2008: Players Championship
2009: Honda Classic

Odd Round by Charles Howell III. 17 pars and 1 eagle (on 15).

Wow, thanks Ned, apparently TMIMITW was a PGAT member in 2001 and 2002. I didn't realize that.

Sand wrote:

Fader wrote:Nice to see or should I say hear poor commentary continues from monty/critchley and harmon!

Monty: "19 out of 30 players used a belly putter at last years tour championship!" Might want to check your facts colin I'm no stato but even I know that to be wrong!

Butch: "I like Stenson and how nothing flusters him he just forgets it an moves on" that'll be the same guy who last year we saw throw his 3 wood(might have been driver) in a lake after a poor tee shot mid round, the same guy who snapped a club over his knee causing him a hand wound last year at another event, oh and the guy who took his frustration out on the pine needles at 18 yesterday on his way to a snowman!!! Yep good call Butch!

Critchley: gets even stating the bleeding obvious wrong

If your not statto, why would monty just make that up? Seems high to me but it wouldnt surprise me.

No-one said he'd made it up just that he was wrong! Long putters at the TC were, Simpson, Haas, Bradley, Furyk, + about 6 more. The reason I recall that is I read about the TC in todays golfer where they stated a third of the field wielded the long putter so out of 30 players that's 10 long putters.

No need be stato to recall a fact that's been printed or even as a commentator to check your info!