PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

How nice that Donald make the cut because Dufner bogeyed the last hole!

One in three is still a lot of cheat sticks.

kwinigolfer wrote:And then there's Miguel Angel Jimenez.
The Most Interesting Man on the Leaderboard!

He was among my original 6-pack pick. I replaced him with KJ Choi at the last minute. Serves me right for not following my mechanic intuition.

Donald over the cut-line right now Leff, he needs some magic on his final seven holes.

Leff wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:And then there's Miguel Angel Jimenez.
The Most Interesting Man on the Leaderboard!

He was among my original 6-pack pick. I replaced him with KJ Choi at the last minute. Serves me right for not following my mechanic intuition.

Why did you torque him off your list? He is hammering most the field.

Diggers wrote:One in three is still a lot of cheat sticks.

I don't see it as cheating, but then that's likely because I have no issue with them. They do look ugly I agree. However I'd use one myself if I thought it was better for me. I also see Direct Golf have added them to their catalogue for mainstream sales now to.

But even though I say I don't see it as cheating I do get why people have issue with it.

I am surprised that Dufner is ranked #31, made >8 million USD in his PGA career, and is yet to win a PGA title, let alone a major!

C'mon Luke, even Tom Watson moved above the cut line...

Cant believe Tiggers ball finished there!!

yeah comon luuuuke, even chunk putt woods might make the cut

GPB wrote:

Leff wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:And then there's Miguel Angel Jimenez.
The Most Interesting Man on the Leaderboard!

He was among my original 6-pack pick. I replaced him with KJ Choi at the last minute. Serves me right for not following my mechanic intuition.

Why did you torque him off your list? He is hammering most the field.

Jimenez has now made 8th consecutive cut at the Masters. I should have known.

i am very close in turning this off- i dont really wanna watch every shot woods plays over others shots, he is playing gash anyway!

Wozniacki or Donald, who will be the first to win a major?

mystiroakey wrote:i am very close in turning this off- i dont really wanna watch every shot woods plays over others shots, he is playing gash anyway!

I'm enjoying it more than if he was playing well....

NedB-H wrote:

mystiroakey wrote:i am very close in turning this off- i dont really wanna watch every shot woods plays over others shots, he is playing gash anyway!

I'm enjoying it more than if he was playing well....

+1

Donald is back now inside the cut line.. Not another wrong score again

Woods has bottled this big time. He'll be close to the top by the tournament's end and will rue the slow start. His entire game has been a bit of a nightmare.

Leff wrote:Wozniacki or Donald, who will be the first to win a major?

Probably Wozzer if either of them, the womens game isnt that strong right now and she is still a kid really.

mthierry wrote:Woods has bottled this big time. He'll be close to the top by the tournament's end and will rue the slow start. His entire game has been a bit of a nightmare.

cant see it this week- i can see a top 30, not his normal top 10

Can't see how it could happen but if Woods finds 2 birds he is in reality of 4 off the lead as I don't think Couples or Dufner will win.
But to be honest looks more likely he"ll go backwards.

He may be only 7 off but hes playing dreadful. Another poor shot at 15.

Sand wrote:He may be only 7 off but hes playing dreadful. Another poor shot at 15.

Two poor shots at 15 :P

I think it's fair to say Super wil have just had an orgasm after that Woods chip. Shanktastic.

Was that the S word?!

Im loving this... (my apologies to massive tigger fans)

I think that was the worst shot of the lot, so steep, decelerating chopped 9 iron. Worst round i can ever remember watching Tiger have at the Masters.

S for sh1te? Think H for hacking would be appropriate as well.

Tiler76 wrote:S for sh1te? Think H for hacking would be appropriate as well.

Also S for Shank as well too.

Sand wrote:

Tiler76 wrote:S for sh1te? Think H for hacking would be appropriate as well.

Also S for Shank as well too.

Isn't a shank supposed to be close to the perfect strike? Probably one of Tiger's better swings today then....

I think his head is spinning right now, no idea what to do.
If he bogeys 16, he'll approach 17 and 18 knowing he bogeyed both yesterday when he was playing somewhat better. If he should somehow do worse than yesterday, he'll be off back to Jupiter before you can say Sean Foley.

It's not just that Woods has played poorly, he's made so many poor errors. Persisting with this driver cut shot early in the round when it clearly wasn't working, shortsiding himself multiple times then compounding the errors. Consistently lipping out putts just kinda kicks you when your down but a really dissapointing round after a perfect start. That shot selection on 13 to was ridiculous, the green wasn't on, especially with a mud ball.

World #1 Luke, thanks for playing. Better luck next year, perhaps a major this year, but not this one.

Tiger, thanks for playing, better luck next year.

FREDDIE!! Show these young guns a thing or two.

(At least until Rory feasts!)

Just as well the cut is +5 for tiger as hes struggling to make it no doubt.

If that was a shank from TW, I'm the Pope.

Tiger's shot selection (especially on par 5's at Augusta) has always tended towards the ridiculous though. I guess when you're as good as he is/was you're entitled to think you can get away with anything. I think with better course management he would probably have a couple more green jackets.

Nick Watney is quietly creeping up.

Critchley has kept up his trend of talking rubbish this evening. Telling us that Watson is exempt til he's 65 in this tournament is wrong, there's no age limit, he can play til he keels over or doesn't fancy it. It used to be 65 for the Open, it's now 60 but Watson is in til 2014 thanks to his Turnberry effort. And now calling Lawrie's finish "the greatest ever seen here", er, I can remember a better one by a guy called Schwartzel last year.

NedB-H wrote:Critchley has kept up his trend of talking rubbish this evening. Telling us that Watson is exempt til he's 65 in this tournament is wrong, there's no age limit, he can play til he keels over or doesn't fancy it. It used to be 65 for the Open, it's now 60 but Watson is in til 2014 thanks to his Turnberry effort. And now calling Lawrie's finish "the greatest ever seen here", er, I can remember a better one by a guy called Schwartzel last year.

I was thinking that too. Man's a pillock.

Ah but Lawrie is British therefore it's much better than that South African that won last year. Although at least we can pronounce his name rather than his mate Oosty-what'shisface.

(Tongue-firmly-in-cheek)

I agree Critchley is bad but he's no worse than the dreadful Ben Dirs (or any of the others) on BBC live text.

"the one thing you can say about Woods is he will never give up"

Think he just called Matsuyama "Maruyama" too, been a few year's since Shigeki's played here.

Jimenez's holing out today has been superb, must have had at least half a dozen 5 or 6 footers and I don't think he's missed one.

Critchley is losing his marbles like Alliss.

Henrik Stenson is a funny guy, one of my favourite players actually. The commentator says something like...

'So 8 yesterday and a 3 today at 8, a nice bit of revenge for you'

and he instantly replies...

'Well I'll be the most improved player on 18 then'.

Quality quote from Stenson!

I kinda wish i could hack about like that and shoot 75..

Hi Kwin

Just got back on here. Good to see your still turning out first class stuff. Wish I had Sky Sports coz Radio 5 live is total pants. Thank God BBC 2 is on tomorrow live

Commentary on ESPN in the US is not too shabby. Based on the comments from UK viewers, we probably have a better commentary team (Faldo & co).

Dont think there is anything wrong with the Sky coverage to be fair (ok will accept Critchley hes pretty poor)

Speaking of Ben Dirs hes horrendous. Apparently Keegan Bradley is finishing at the moment

I think (?!) thats means its Rory & Sergio pairing tomorrow. Hope so.

Sand wrote:I think (?!) thats means its Rory & Sergio pairing tomorrow. Hope so.

Looks that way yes, plus Bubba paired with Lawrie. Such contrasting styles there. Tiger out with Charl which is quite interesting. Both players in need of a round like they put together last year on the Sunday.

So, my summary of the 2 days so far is

It's still wide open
I expect tomorrow to see a lot of big moves
Tiger looks frustrated, could go either way for him
Rory is looking confident
Phil's recovered well, another day like today and he'll be smiling come Sunday night
Westwood's poor finish on 18 could prove costly
Couples always produces at Augusta, can he do another 36 holes and stay in contention?
Baddeley is a steady golfer who's under the radar....

Roll on the next 36 holes, I've thoroughly enjoyed it so far. Sunday night is shaping up to be just as thrilling as last year.

Vijay and PMick tomorrow! Uh oh! Spike Gate!