PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

GREAT BACK NINE PADRAIG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What a beauty that long curving in putt from Mickelson!

He must now be the favourite for tomorrow's championship round.

PMICK!!! with a thunderous eagle on 13!

Nice to see some birdies and eagles, even if they're not quite from the right golfers.

There's something horribly inevitable about all this.

You mean my process of elimination might be working out??

PS: Tres horrible from Briscoe yesterday . . . .

omg.. pmick has only gone and taken the lead.


am i seeing things or did westy just hole a 7 footer!!

kwinigolfer wrote:You mean my process of elimination might be working out??

PS: Tres horrible from Briscoe yesterday . . . .

Well that doesn't help, but it'd be horribly inevitable even if you'd picked Woods! Saw that from Briscoe, I guess if you're gonna blow out from T2 you may as well do it in style. Stinker all round for the Euro NWers.

sirbenson wrote:GREAT BACK NINE PADRAIG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I second that sentiment Sir B.

Ned:

B_t_b:

Pod to win a 4th major .... it couldn't happen.... could it? Be a great story.

The grandstands/bleachers have morphed into:
"Patron observation platforms".

Can they get any more unctuous??????

Rory now +7 for the day. He must break 80, surely?

Who would want to observe the Patrons Kwini ?

feeling a little lonely. spilled beer on keyboard so will just have to read. this took about 5 mins with onscreen keyboard.

great golf.

McLaren wrote:feeling a little lonely. spilled beer on keyboard so will just have to read. this took about 5 mins with onscreen keyboard.

great golf.

sorry Mac but

Do the comms get sacked if they forget themselves and talk about the "spectators", or worse "fans"?


Stenson having a very odd week.

Just a typical saturday at the masters "moving day" big time. Cummon Lee get back into this

give it a shake mac- it may start working again

Wow rory and sergio just hit a golf shot at 12... Both close.

Put it in a dishwasher Mac. Gets rid of the beer and water is fine on them.

ousty robbed with that putt. can westy make birdie from the best approach ever into 11!- i doubt it

mystiroakey wrote:give it a shake mac- it may start working again

not when there is sparks.

westwood. ;)

kwini ;)

some v funny posts 2night.

Class from Rory and Sergio there


Hanson takes the outright lead

i find myself really rooting 4 phil.

Thought for a minute there Kuchar's par putt was gonna run all the way back down to square one....

Digs,
My thoughts precisely.
And they're all the same colour!

Aw kwini my nerves are shot already... was out for the wifes birthday earlier so just catchin up... Although nearly has a schizoid embolism when i saw Podge birdied 4 in a row then 18 too...

I'm for Phil or Pod.
It's so depressing being English and watching majors. A certain inevitability of failure when there's so much promise.

Class from Rory and Sergio there..

How do you do that?!?

mystiroakey wrote:give it a shake mac- it may start working again

That is what she said!

Sergio and Rory definitely needed a HUG!

Huge roar when Mickelson was playing that parachute lob.
Wonder what it was?

wow thats 3 very nice putts for westy on the spin! impressive- feeling abit more confident even if he is 4 back

Not Westwood. B0ll0cks.
Maybe Couples.

Typical Sergio.............his general demeanour all week, his attitude at 18 yest and in his post round interview was horrendous. He really doesn't help himself and must be a playing partner to avoid for a lot of the players..............

Think Wayne Grady has got the Scandinavians confused more often than he's got them right. Team colours?

kwinigolfer wrote:Not Westwood. B0ll0cks.
Maybe Couples.

Ahead of us, what's happened? Creek?

kwinigolfer wrote:Not Westwood. B0ll0cks.
Maybe Couples.

Was definately Couples at 12...

Couples bird on #11.
Definitely Couples on 311 Sand. The one on #12 was live-ish.

Could be quite the battle for Number One on Sunday between Luke and Rory.

Birdie on 13 for Paul Lawrie.

John Cregan wrote:Typical Sergio.............his general demeanour all week, his attitude at 18 yest and in his post round interview was horrendous. He really doesn't help himself and must be a playing partner to avoid for a lot of the players..............

His attitude at 18 was cus he couldnt believe the ball stopped where it did after having a mud ball on the fairway. I agree his interview was far from good but looks like he was being realistic since he doesnt like the course and playing with an injury. Wish he would be more positive at times though. Rory and him looked to be having a laugh on the course today even though they are both playing Pat Cash today.

The Mechanic looks to have found his spanner - couple of birds.

Interesting play from Oosty, possibly the only person to lay up by choice on 13, almost certainly the only one to then stick the pitch on the right level. Westwood in trouble though....

Westwood is playing so gash too.

i wonder, does rory think he was obliged to play with tiger on sunday?

westwood :wah:

Hanson - Mickelson - Oosthuizen shootout on Sunday, hmm....

Don't think he would play with Tiger but, if he did, I hope he'd wear something scarlet!

Things certainly have been getting exciting now in the second part of the day. Fantastic rounds from Hanson and Mickelson. And Padraig not so shabby either

Is this going to be the breakthrough week that Swedish golf have been waiting for so long?!

Wow! Hanson can't put a foot wrong right now!