PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

How is the last pairing out on Thursday doing?

Mickelson-Hanson-Mahan

Shot Peter!

Hanson what you call in the zone, bet he wishes they could carry on playing tonite.

This Hanson fella is murdering this course. Did anyone predict this onslaught?

Peter Hanson on a diff planet!! Genius stuff...

Sand wrote:

John Cregan wrote:Typical Sergio.............his general demeanour all week, his attitude at 18 yest and in his post round interview was horrendous. He really doesn't help himself and must be a playing partner to avoid for a lot of the players..............

His attitude at 18 was cus he couldnt believe the ball stopped where it did after having a mud ball on the fairway. I agree his interview was far from good but looks like he was being realistic since he doesnt like the course and playing with an injury. Wish he would be more positive at times though. Rory and him looked to be having a laugh on the course today even though they are both playing Pat Cash today.

It was a complete petulant overreaction to a shot that was overhit anyway and is typical of Sergio......he then proceeded to completely disrespect his playing partners by taking a ridiculous amount of time to play his next shot..i just dont get his attitude at times.

dont assume westy is out of this yet !

mystiroakey wrote:dont assume westy is out of this yet !

Im assuming it................

The -4s might have a shout tomorrow, -5s definitely won't be out of it... two more for Lee?

if he is 3 behind, with his long game, he has a massive shot still- needs two birds i feel minimum to close mind

Phil, you are a god of a golfer.

wow hanson at 9- what a round of golf.

When you can play like Phil from "trouble" you must have no fear on this golf course.

Phil is a legend.. American media has second proze at the moment- no tiger v rory, but phil big fav

Phil wins this and maybe one more major and he goes down as a real too notch all time great which his talent really deserves.

Hanson had his day; it's hard to play as well again. Phil has to be the favourite to win the green jacket.

Phil vs Vijay: Phil won by 10 strokes.

He allready is an all time great in my eyes, however probally good enough for 8 plus majors if he wasnt the mr 2nd place for so long and then be in his prime during tigers prime.

good call on him though diggs- you were confident he was a big fav!!(as hard as that is to say lol)

John Cregan wrote:

Sand wrote:

John Cregan wrote:Typical Sergio.............his general demeanour all week, his attitude at 18 yest and in his post round interview was horrendous. He really doesn't help himself and must be a playing partner to avoid for a lot of the players..............

His attitude at 18 was cus he couldnt believe the ball stopped where it did after having a mud ball on the fairway. I agree his interview was far from good but looks like he was being realistic since he doesnt like the course and playing with an injury. Wish he would be more positive at times though. Rory and him looked to be having a laugh on the course today even though they are both playing Pat Cash today.

It was a complete petulant overreaction to a shot that was overhit anyway and is typical of Sergio......he then proceeded to completely disrespect his playing partners by taking a ridiculous amount of time to play his next shot..i just dont get his attitude at times.

Your points are pretty fair but it was only slightly overhit and about an inch from being stone dead. He took ages over his shot as you seen how fast the putt he'd left himself thats all. Totally agree about his attitude this week hasnt been the best.

Yeah I had a feeling he was gonna peak this week. Wasn't quite so positive during round one mind you.
And I agree he is a great, I'd just like the numbers not to leave any room for debate. Amazing to think though if Pod wins tomorrow him and Phil both on 4 majors from quite differing careers.

Re sergio--guy was 1 off the lead and looked as if he gave up during that interview!! very odd reaction last night.. sergio should have been jumping for joy the position he was in. At that point it didnt matter about bad breaks he had, or how he doesnt like the course- he was 1 back and playing half decent!!

God Vaughan really is terrible.

I think Phil has 40 odd PGA tour wins- not sure but how many others have more?

Surely no one bar woods in the modern era.

NedB-H wrote:God Vaughan really is terrible.

Not watching BBC but any idea why they have a cricketer interviewing golfers at the masters...

Sand wrote:

NedB-H wrote:God Vaughan really is terrible.

Not watching BBC but any idea why they have a cricketer interviewing golfers at the masters...

Nope, not a clue. But it isn't working.

Leff wrote:Hanson had his day; it's hard to play as well again.

I think both he and Mickelson will find it hard to play that well again! Interestingly they've swapped round scores over days 1 & 2 (68 & 74 vs 74 & 68). Sure Phil has the experience but Hanson has had a 2nd, a 3rd, 2x 4ths and a 5th in his last 10 tournies. He's on the up at the mo, so don't write him off too glibly.

mystiroakey wrote:I think Phil has 40 odd PGA tour wins- not sure but how many others have more?

Surely no one bar woods in the modern era.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_golfers_with_most_PGA_Tour_wins

Definitely a great already.

As said the other day, they should have sent Peter Alliss to Sri Lanka.
(David Feherty too of course.)

Oh and apols for being grumpy earlier, not sure what was going on there. Perhaps seeing Rose, McIlroy and Garcia suffering... Perked up with the European ressurgence during the later evening!

mystiroakey wrote:I think Phil has 40 odd PGA tour wins- not sure but how many others have more?

Surely no one bar woods in the modern era.

Snead 82
Nicklaus 73
Woods 72

Palmer 62

#9 Mickelson 40

Vijay 34


Phil is #9 on the list of most PGA tour wins. You are right, in the modern era, he is second to Woods, although far behind. If you include Jack as somewhat belonging to modern era, then third.

When Vaughan was mentioned earlier i thought, Vaughan Taylor made the masters?

I do find it abit strange how ousty hasnt gone for it down the back 9. played both par 5's sensibly and not picking up any more birds!!

has he played himself out the tourny- or maybe it could work in his favour- if he isnt in the final group with phil!!

i think to get 40 wins and vigay to get 34 wins is pretty special when we consider they played at the same time as woods!!

The rivalries we could have had if tiger was slightly mortal in his peak!

mystiroakey wrote:I do find it abit strange how ousty hasnt gone for it down the back 9. played both par 5's sensibly and not picking up any more birds!!

has he played himself out the tourny- or maybe it could work in his favour- if he isnt in the final group with phil!!

The tournament can't be won today, he is making sure that he doesn't do anything stupid and cost himself a chance of winning. He's giving himself chances today without taking any great risks. Bare in mind he's missed three cuts in a row in previous attempt. I think it has been a very sensible approach so far, he has done everything Jack Nicklaus spoke about doing to get the job done here.

Another very consistent round from Paul Lawrie - he seems to be a forgotten man in all this.

Kwini:

You had a comment earlier about how tough 18 was playing! the final groups are not having that much trouble!

Hanson, PMick, Bubba, Kuchar all birdied!

edit, maybe that is why they are in the final pairings

2nd edit: And Rory!

Have a feeling would be better for Hanson and Oosty if they would play together tomorrow, rather than getting US partners. Specially being paird with Phil the last day could be difficult to handle as crowds are likely to go hysterical for him...

Redrage wrote:

mystiroakey wrote:I do find it abit strange how ousty hasnt gone for it down the back 9. played both par 5's sensibly and not picking up any more birds!!

has he played himself out the tourny- or maybe it could work in his favour- if he isnt in the final group with phil!!

The tournament can't be won today, he is making sure that he doesn't do anything stupid and cost himself a chance of winning. He's giving himself chances today without taking any great risks. Bare in mind he's missed three cuts in a row in previous attempt. I think it has been a very sensible approach so far, he has done everything Jack Nicklaus spoke about doing to get the job done here.

well my point was a bit scewed because ousty makes a birdie which will put him in the final group with hansen(as long as he can par or better the last)

And i think that will help them both out massively..

Oosty or Phil to win tomorrow, not Hanson.

If I were Hanson, I would avoid talking to Bjorn tonight.

Judging by Rory and Sergio coming off the green at 18.. Dont think Rory hated playing with Sergio today despite his attitude some put it.

GOB,
I imagine it was still quite cool when the first half dozen groups were playing 18 - I checked the dew point and it was in the 40's, must have played very long until it warmed up a bit.

Leff,
I concur . . . . don't see Phil failing to break 70, don't see anyone shooting another 65 - so just half a dozen-ish players in it really.

Anybody knows what happened to Gary Woodland?

feel so gutted for lee again!

dug in so hard today, pleased on that score, but he could have been so better. lets hope he can hole that one down the last which will give him a sniff of the win

Think Louis will need another birdie yet for the final group mysti.


Few things to watch out for on the final day - top 16 and ties seal their invite for next year. Of the current top 31, the only definites are Phil, Louis, Podge, Couples, Rory; though guys like Lee, Bubba, Mahan, Watney are probably safe. Could be big for Lawrie, Molinari, Jimenez, even Poulter among the Euros though.

Second, Paul Lawrie has $182,000 from the two WGCs so far, another $230k here would give him temporary PGA Tour membership a la Hanson. That'd probably need a two-way tie for ninth or better. No guarantees he'd take it up, mind.

Gee, Oosty is making a big mess at the 18th. Lost his concentration at the end.

princedracula wrote:Anybody knows what happened to Gary Woodland?

Came down the back nine with ice on his wrist, finished his round then packed up and went home. Not sure if he turned it coming out of some spinach, or aggravated something long-standing, I've got an idea he's had wrist issues before?

Hanson on Mickelson's round:
"You hear the crowd going wild when he made the eagle. It kind of helped me on 14. I'm standing in the middle of the fairway and I feel him breathing down my neck a little bit and manage to get mine close on 14 and picked up another birdie on 15."

Good attitude!


Careful Lee....

No wonder he withdrew after an 85...

Woodland has had an annus terribilis, his swing coach fired him when he changed agents and he went to the gospel according to St.Butch. Things aren't going well - out of the top 60 now and, if he's going to be out for a while, he'll go down faster than Wolves.

Hanson will be too nervous tomorrow to play his best. Phil does well when he is in the final pair on the last day.

Hope Bubba won't bring down Oosty. Erratic play is often contagious.

I'd love to see Hanson take on Mickelson in a head to head and beat him, we haven't had a good two-man battle in a major since Yang/Woods, unless you count Mickelson's last Masters. But it's hard to look beyond Phil really. Would be surprised to see Watson or Kuchar make a run, and not sure any of the -4s can get it low enough.