PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

On a more weighty subject, Tiger is now just one under par on his 10 par-5's; he can't win like that, whatever else he does.
And another bogey puts him back to square one for the day. He's a goner.

And so is Luke Donald - his second double bogey on a par-5 this week. Didn't fancy him at all this week and for once I was right.

Leff wrote:I have no problem with the likes of Couples and Watson. Those like Lyle and Stadler should be politely told to keep out. After all, Fuzzy Z is not being an unwanted pest.

Lyle finished top-30 a couple of years ago; everyone has bad weeks. Stadler hasn't been competitive for a long while, I'd expect him to go in the next year or two, Crenshaw probably a year or two after that, and Lyle/Woosnam in 4-5 years. Not sure when Langer and Watson will call time.

Leff wrote:Sang-Moon Bae is the today's brightest star so far.

Sssshhhhh! I have a bet on him at 200-1

course seems tough- i wouldnt be surprised if 5 under is leading again tonight!

I'm never wrong wrote:

Leff wrote:Sang-Moon Bae is the today's brightest star so far.

Sssshhhhh! I have a bet on him at 200-1

Good for you, but he just made a bogey.

Luke's giving up out there... Go Franny!!

PS. Just heard some weird report on GC about J. Byrd whose wife gave birth to a new baby girl a week or so ago. Report said..."he and wife Amanda considered names of Augusta National holes while choosing one for their baby girl but settled on Kate"

Phew!! That was close...

kwinigolfer wrote:I really don't understand any criticism of The Masters for inviting Past Champions unless you also include The Open and PGA Championship for the same thing.

Apart from the notion that the real no-hopers should receive a Red Card, I've nothing against blokes like Couples and Watson playing here given their proven competitiveness, or even the less competitive ones until they really struggle.

Past winners of all the majors should get an invite...for one year as defending champion.

Not sure about the PGA Tour, but the ET has "past champions" as a standard category for its rank-and-file events, the same as the majors do.

Of those who have played at least 9 holes, only 5 are under par for their round - plenty of guys taking themselves out of the tournament though, Donald just one of many.

Exemptions - didn't it used to be a 10 year exemption on the tours for a Major win?

I'm never wrong wrote:Exemptions - didn't it used to be a 10 year exemption on the tours for a Major win?

still is on the ET, believe it's 5 on the PGA now, reduced a few years back. 5 year exemption into all majors too.

Yes, But they've long since been reduced to five, on the PGA Tour at least. Different on the E.T.

Brilliant start by Poults !

princedracula wrote:Luke's giving up out there... Go Franny!!

PS. Just heard some weird report on GC about J. Byrd whose wife gave birth to a new baby girl a week or so ago. Report said..."he and wife Amanda considered names of Augusta National holes while choosing one for their baby girl but settled on Kate"

Phew!! That was close...

Holly (18) is OK.

awful tee shot by Tiger on the 13th. This is not his day. No chance of a title here.

Tigers just hit it in the creek on 13, was lucky to get in the creek since he missed it further left and kicked into the creek.

Doesnt seem to be any better today.... Shame.

Five golfers have played the 18th hole so far and they've played it in level bogey.

the 18th could be averageing the highest it ever has in history!!

Phil and Vijay getting ready for mud-wrestling.

Leff wrote:Phil and Vijay getting ready for mud-wrestling.

not an image i want thanks!

what made you think of that lols

watch out leaders rose is looking good.. staedy stuff and now up to 2 under par

Vijay v Phil, for those unaware, was in 2005 when Vijay criticised Phil's use of spikes, or questioned their legality.

Not just Tiger stinking the place up; World #1 clearly not comfortable out there this weekend. +6 and 18 yet to play.

Watch out for Mahan. Two wins this year, one over Rory, top ranked American, loads of confidence.

I love the CBS Masters webcast. You have 3 options: Amen corner, 15-16, or featured group (Woods & CSch). I am mostly watching Amen.

Similar to what Sky was showing 1st two days. Now Sky showing 15-16 and two featured groups plus highlights on red button, whilst BBC showing Amen Corner on red button.

mystiroakey wrote:

Leff wrote:Phil and Vijay getting ready for mud-wrestling.

not an image i want thanks!

what made you think of that lols

Just for the drama factor, Mysti.

For the visual aspect, I would rather watch my wife vs Gulbis, or my wife vs Creamer.

Average score on #18 now 5.1-ish.

Terrible last 15 holes for Luke Donald; it will be interesting to hear what he has to say about his week, but he's beyond damage control is far as this tournament is concerned.

The leading drinks, Rose and Watney are now the first to -3.

Leff wrote:

mystiroakey wrote:

Leff wrote:Phil and Vijay getting ready for mud-wrestling.

not an image i want thanks!

what made you think of that lols

Just for the drama factor, Mysti.

For the visual aspect, I would rather watch my wife vs Gulbis, or my wife vs Creamer.

Be honest, you just want Gulbis vs Creamer don't you? :p

hot players to watch out for- Scott after a very bad start back to red figures, rose 3 under (one player i dont see dropping many from here in)

Going through the green at 13 looks difficult. Hole looks to be on a plateau and putt down the hill is either good or 50 feet away.

LastDamnation wrote:

Leff wrote:

mystiroakey wrote:

Leff wrote:Phil and Vijay getting ready for mud-wrestling.

not an image i want thanks!

what made you think of that lols

Just for the drama factor, Mysti.

For the visual aspect, I would rather watch my wife vs Gulbis, or my wife vs Creamer.

Be honest, you just want Gulbis vs Creamer don't you? :p

Can I have Azahara Munoz vs Maria Verachenova? Yum yum.

the pitch in is tough isnt it- ball just bounces. gotta get a good drive and go for it in two!

LastDamnation wrote:

For the visual aspect, I would rather watch my wife vs Gulbis, or my wife vs Creamer.

Be honest, you just want Gulbis vs Creamer don't you? :p[/quote]

My wife is just as pretty and I suspect she wouldn't mind joining in the fun.

13 does look tough, looks almost impossible to get it close from off the green unless you're 200 yards out and run it up the green. Not sure how fair that is.

Just seen Ogilvy hit a long iron out of the pine needles to the back of the green, great second shot. Tricky putt though.

What's that on the face of Kevin Na's club? Is it an image of a golf ball? Is that allowed?

Looks like a war of attrition out there.
Tension not a synonym for excitement.

Poulter with only one par in eight holes.

Snedeker with the round of the day in progress. -4 after 15 holes.

My Yahoo team is feeling happy given I'm about the only person on the planet not to put Tiger in there.

Have to say, all things considered, this year's Masters has been a bit below expectations so far... I'm still to feel really excited by some great play and/or some great contests out there... I think it has a lot to do also with the poor coverage from what I could watch here until now. Getting a bit fed up with watching Amen Corner and a pointless and worthless Woods/Schwartzel group today...

Really hoping for something better to come later on today and tomorrow...

Sneds now 5 under for the day.

Poor start from Sergio & Rory. Bogey for Sergio and double for Rory.

princedracula wrote:Have to say, all things considered, this year's Masters has been a bit below expectations so far... I'm still to feel really excited by some great play and/or some great contests out there... I think it has a lot to do also with the poor coverage from what I could watch here until now. Getting a bit fed up with watching Amen Corner and a pointless and worthless Woods/Schwartzel group today...

Really hoping for something better to come later on today and tomorrow...

Agree with you re tournament not coming alive, but disagree with you re watching Amen Corner. Get to watch all the players coming through and commentary not too intrusive. No adverts.

I suppose all players that are EVEN par at the start of tomorrow have a chance to win. My hunch is Couples and Duffy will fizzle away as the day progresses.

rors doubles first again

Find it funny that the featured group in the red button is Woods's group. Like you'd miss a shot if you were watching the main broadcast! Maybe it's for the Charl fans out there!!

Not home yet so this is my best info source. Please keep going. Thanks.

Rory - What are you doing? Enuf with the drama, just get out there and birdie!

Enjoy today Freddie, it may never come your way again.

SoH in the mix?

Great to see that Woods is out of contention. Now hopefully the real players on day four will get the coverage that they and we deserve to see.

Lee in a share of the lead again And 23 within three shots of him!

He won't trouble the leaders, but McDowell birdied the final hole for a 71; pretty good considering his poor record round Augusta.

I'm with princedrac, I'm looking forward to The Masters yet a US Open is breaking out. May actually help Westwood. Stenson up to 3rd!

Sergio....