PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

Should be Rory and Graeme together Sunday, Vijay and Tiger!
Will Lawrie and Lee be a good match?

some good interviews with sergio and rory...

Kwini I think Lawrie & Lee get on pretty well.

Sand wrote:I think Lawrie & Lee get on pretty well.

Cider with Rosie... Justin could do with a Bulmers after that finish!

Baldy Byrd and Follicle Free Furyk playing together!

damned putt, his Strongbow certainly failed him on the back nine.

Sand
I wonder if they're good for each other though, both a bit moody.

Perhaps they were discussing the various attributes of the respective strokes of Martina and Caro? Would be interesting conversation if they played a foursome with Hank Kuenhe and Adam Scott . . . .

So... winning score? -11 or -12 with another good round from Mickelson, Hanson or Oosty? Final day pressure combined with some free-flowing rounds coming from the -4s and -5s adding a bit of pressure. Greens'll be even slicker and the forecast is near perfect.

I got the right arris with what the greens were doing today (Rose's approach to 15 particularly) but then having watched The Masters since the mid-80s, I know that this is how the powers that be want them.

Good quote from Hanson afterwards, along the lines of that having played with Phil for the first 2 days, he'd learnt a lot about positioning, particularly the approach shot.

But, in defference to Leff, Phil did look imperious, and he's got the history around the National. But I don't care who you are (bar Tiger in his pomp), going into the final round of The Masters in the last group or 3, with that lot over your shoulder, is going to affect you.

So who's got Jack's insulation bubble to ride the rough breaks, the partisan crowd, sorry patrons (yes, I'm a Euro ;-)), and have the patience and balls to make it happen? Skill is in no doubt - You don't get into the final round's T10-20 here without being seriously talented. And even the septics behind (and including) Phil, will feel the pressure of expectation.

(But please, powers-that-be, don't send the greens to the insanely ridiculous end of the stimp-meter just because they were a bit "easy" on days 1 & 2. Today proved the power of your "sub-dry" system, we're all very impressed...)

Game on...

No-one will beat -10 unless Phil does - agree with the earlier comment that Peter Hanson, as superb as he was today, would have fancied another 18 tonight and will find it tres difficile to follow up with a top round.

The only person out of the top three I could see making a run is Mahan - he has a history of going low and will benefit from not being in the final groups.

Fantastic to see eight Europeans in the final seven pairs, but think all will have trouble beating Phil.

There are two other races within the race:
1).Number One between Luke and Rory!
2).Finish in the top 16 and ties and receive a return invitation. Won't be a big deal to most of the protagonists but sure Stenson and Jacobson, Lawrie and Molinari, Dufner, Crane and O'Hair would be appreciate the assurance of an Augusta date next year.

Kwini

If (and it is a BIG IF) Westwood can light it up tomorrow and win, and Luke/Rory continue to not play well, I think Westy takes over the #1 spot.

My quick calculations indicate

Westy wins coupled with Luke out of the top 10 and Rory out of the top 7 means the #1 spot for Westy.

Hopefully PD can confirm.

Trouble is, GPB, those two 2-footers (or less) that he's missed are going to haunt him all day Sunday. Really feel he needs something very fortunate to happen to make up for those misses. A pitch-in for eagle perhaps, a couple of snakes.
Would love for Lee to win but it's very difficult to see how he'll get himself in position, let alone drag his arse across the line.
Hope I'm wrong.

No fights. Let's see if Tiger and Vijay and/or their caddies can entertain us with a fight. After all, they can't do much show off with their game at this stage.

When there are several players at +2 and several at +3, is the pairing done randomly by a computer, or somebody decided that it would be nice entertainment to have Tiger and Vijay have a go at each other?

Saturday and Sunday tee times First in last out

Tiger was the first player to post +3. VJ was the last player to post +2.

Tiger tees off last of +3's
Vijay tees off first of the +2's

thus they are paired together.

If Rory had not birdied 18, he would have posted +2 after VJ and he would have been paired with Tiger.

GPB, I did not know. Thanks.

Come on Peter Hanson. You'll get me nearly two hundred if you win, just like Schwartzel last year.
Can't really see past Mickelson though, he's looking outstanding. Westwood, Stenson and Kuchar will be kicking themselves they should all be where the top two are. Westwood in particular might never get a better chance to win a major.

Hilarious stuff from Woods. Same old tired rhetoric from him. Fools no one anymore.
'Back' my ar$e.
He's so thick he can't compute that if he didn't try and hit it so hard he'd probably still be the best player in the world, instead of just another top twenty player.

anyone care to back against mickleson- it would be a brave man- however as much as i like him- i would rather see someone come through the field.

On the players behind that can produce a hanson type round- lee must be a contender if the putts drop- however putting is all about the head at the time. Westy may allready feel that he has blown this tourny allready- could easily be 10 shots better and i hope he doesnt think that way even though its the truth

I dont agree that this was his best chance to win a major- as he has plenty more to come and is to good a golfer not to contend again. however there could be a zquite a few players out there that feel like it could have been there time- no disrespect to pmick,ousty or hanson- but if certian players played half decent they could be on 14 under .

If it becomes a pmick procession i doubt i will last the coverage- so from that selfish point of view i hope it isnt

GPB wrote:Saturday and Sunday tee times First in last out

Tiger was the first player to post +3. VJ was the last player to post +2.

Tiger tees off last of +3's
Vijay tees off first of the +2's

thus they are paired together.

If Rory had not birdied 18, he would have posted +2 after VJ and he would have been paired with Tiger.

So the press almost got their Rory/Tiger sunday showdown after all :P

It's a pity that neither Woods or McIlroy are in the last couple of groups, but guys like Oosty, the english Westy, Watson, Mahan and Harrington are more than capable of making this an exciting finish. Stenson has proved a birdie machine so far too, I'd like to see him win!

I predict and ring collapse from Hanson. He doesn't finish average ET events well enough, never mind a breakthrough major.

I sincerely hope Hanson doesn't collapse but I am fearful considering I'd profit handsomely from a win.
Mickelson looks imperious on the back nine and the pressure he applies could be too much for the Swede unfamiliar with being in that position.

Should be good viewing with the petulant child Woods and over exposed McIlroy well out of the picture though.

super_realist wrote:Should be good viewing with the petulant child Woods and over exposed McIlroy well out of the picture though.

They should by finished by the time the real action is getting started so there is no excuse for boring us with their 'highlights' unless of course either of them hit a 63.

For all the chat about the "tradition unlike any other", the 100 year anniversary of the births in 1912 of Hogan, Nelson and Snead, I am amazed every year that the record of Errie Ball is not noted.

101 years old now, played his first Open Championship at 15 in 1926, and is the last surviving member of the first ever Masters field in 1934.

Never mentioned on the BBC, as far as I can tell, and certainly never on the US Networks.

Just an unassuming golf pro from Bangor, still alive and, as far as we know, ticking.

Lawrie said he missed 8 putts within 10 ft on Saturday. Too bad.... He's in good form and has an exceptional short game. If he can hole some putts Sunday, I'm sure he will be in the mix for a top3 result.

It's rare that 66 and 65 rounds ate followed up with something really low, golfs law of averages usually throws you a bit of bad luck. So plenty of hope for anything say -4. But I reckon if Phil shoots 70 he wins. Has Westy got a 65 in him now he's under the radar ?

Difficult to bet against big Phil, but i wouldn't be totally surprised if he went backwards today or carded a 71 / 72. It would make for a good finish if the winning total was -7 or -8. Really hope it doesn't turn into a procession.

Westy is out with Lawrie so could go under the broadcast radar. I expect the director will be mostly following the yanks in the field, so anyone out in a purely European group might escape the gaze.

Phil is even par on the front-nine this wek, -8 on the back (incliuding a triple on #10).
So doubt we'll see a procession, not one led by Mickelson anyway.

Really feel today needs someone back in the pack, say a -3 or -4 player, to shoot Diggers' 65 or lower to set the afternoon alight. Mahan has the game to do it, seriously doubt Lee has anything better than Thursday's 67 in his bag.

I sincerely hope it isn't Mahan. Funny to see Vaughn taking the urine out his stupid hats last night in his post round interview.

I seriously doubt he will do it(due to the major tag)- however he has it in the bag better than anyone, and shot a 60,62,64 in december and a 63 the other week final round at the honda-also his first round of 67 had about 5 putts hanging on lips- he hit 16 greens- correct me if i am wrong but noone else has had that gir figure!

Diggers wrote:It's rare that 66 and 65 rounds ate followed up with something really low, golfs law of averages usually throws you a bit of bad luck. So plenty of hope for anything say -4. But I reckon if Phil shoots 70 he wins. Has Westy got a 65 in him now he's under the radar ?

Only truly exceptional players follow up a really low round with another one or even one in the 60s. Average tour players rarely break 70 after a low round. I use it as a betting guide if I make a bet on the last round! So for that reason I give Hanson very little chance of winning. Phil might not even get it going to those numbers, but he is the sort that is capable!

Interesting to see how Oosty copes contending for a major for the first time... odd to say that about a man who already has a major but he had that won on that Saturday! His achilles heel (as demonstrated on 18), is that he lacks a bit of touch around the green. He needs to hit the right spots today to give himself a chance.

Trouble with Lee is:
He's already taken 21 putts more than Mickelson . . . . Would say he really needs to make everyting on the front to give him some belief he can make the crucial pressure putts on the back.

If Hanson or Mickelson shoot 70. I really can't see anyone being able to pass them.
Come on Hanson. A victory could help finance a new set of bats.

kwinigolfer wrote:Trouble with Lee is:
He's already taken 21 putts more than Mickelson . . . . Would say he really needs to make everyting on the front to give him some belief he can make the crucial pressure putts on the back.

so thats 7 more putts a round, yet only less than 2 back a round in total!

ok phil did only hit 6 greens first round, to westys 16.

Anoyingly westy putted much better back 9 yesterday and made cruicial bogey,par and birdie putts!! yet couldnt hole anything froint side and he hit every green in reg!!- i think he had 20 putts front side yet was only 1 over!

just checked putting and gir's

no surprise to see westy way down in the putting but top in the gir's

and no surprise to see pmick top of putting yet way down in terms of gir's

Yesterday's weather conditions seemed to favour the later starters, with the course still wet and weather quite chilly for the early birds.

It will warm up more quickly today, the course will be drier and winds almost calm as they set out. A bit breezier later on and Augusta National could get fiery.

The race for Number One is still on!

Mickelson already owns 3 green jackets. They probably have one custom-fit for him for this evening. It was a thing of the past that he would melt down on the final day. He wouldn't have won 3 Masters jackets if he did. This year, he played remarkably well on the last day at Pebble. Today, -2 will do it for him.

If Hanson can stay calm and not go over par, he can make Phil fight hard for his jacket. I just don't think Hanson will have another day like yesterday because that's how it is in golf majors.

Oosty can do this if he does well in the first three holes. He missed cut in three consecutive Masters prior to this. But, he is a much improved and confident player now than when he played here a year ago.

I can't see Bubba shooting up the leaderboard on the last day of a major, even with a lot of help from his Jesus. Same with Kuchar.

I would have bet on Paddy or Stenson if they were within 2 o 3 shots off the leader.

Mahan is the dark horse if you wish to gamble and win big. He is at -4, but has shown twice in the past three months what he can do at times. Nevertheless, it is not very likely.

Does anyone see all of Hanson, Phil, Oostie and Bubba shooting over par?

If not the winner comes from one of them surely?

Surely.

Kwini,

Some posters seem to be suggesting the -4's and -5's have a chance so not as obvious a statement to others as it is to us. -5 or worse is totally out of it.

I'm assuming Phil, at least, will shoot at least a 70, which means Mahan and the rest need a 66, quite apart from anything Hanson and Louis might do.

Between Louis and Phil for me.

Of course the -4s still have a chance, albeit a slim one. They only need a 66 to get to -10 which is not unrealistic. The front 3 would all be under par at that score, but they would need to toil, if any of them get around going then only the players in the last 2 groups are close enough to do anything about it.

kwinigolfer wrote:Between Louis and Phil for me.

My head says the same, my heart gives Stenson and Westwood a squeak of a chance.

id give the 4-s or 5-s a 20/1 shot at winning-

However it might be better to discount hansons 9 under from this and look at it as if phil is leading on 8 under- therefore the 5's are only 3 back and 4's 4 back- puts things in a better light

Interesting nugget:
The idiot "anonymous pro" interviewed last week in Sports Illustrated, who so demeaned Charl Schwartzel and his brilliant win last year, chose Peter Hanson as his Masters selection.

Early bird for Luke . . . . surely not too late for him to make a charge?

luke needs a 54- more channce of scoring that front 9

Mahan from the pack if anyone.

i think kuchar or westy..

As of start of play, the -2's are tied for 11th (i.e. inside the top 16) and on course for a return visit next year.

ULSTERRRRRRRRR, ULSTERRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

Whoops, wrong thread.....

Make it four Padraig!

So after this week we know Tiger isnt back, Rory isn't quite there yet and Luke might not know where he is supposed to be going. Confusing times.

so only 15 mins till ahmen corner

16.30 on the red button from the BBC. I'm planning to take up my usual position.