PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

Initial scoring seems to be much improved on yesterday. A signal or just players out there cutting loose and enjoying playing golf?

Still quite calm, 3putt.
Winds still due to pick up a touch and you'd think the course will continue to dry out. Much warmer this morning too.

Woods birdies the 2nd... he can still win this!

Happy Easter!

Just seen the pin position on 13. Don't know the usual Sunday position, but it appears close to Rae's Creek both from the front and the side.

Very tough pin positions also, as usual on Sunday, on the 11th and 16th: top left just 5 paces from water in each of these cases...

donald hottest player out there, not much conselation mind

And Rory starts again with bogey...
I don't think playing with 'mates' yesterday and today has been helping him to focus properly for this...

Diggers ... good summation.

Phil absolutely in the driver's seat, but remember he was in that same seat with one hole to play at Winged Foot and we all know what happened there.

Mysti - A lot easier to play loose when you have nothing to lose (or realistically gain). It's time for Luke to finish off one of these majors.

Really puzzled by Rory ... just didn't see that happening this weekend.

I suppose its going to be good for Donald's confidence if he can shoot lowish(the fact he is no.1 but must hear alot of the time that might not be a true one must get to him)- however has Donald ever really truely been in contention for a major- he needs to get into contention first i feel! westy has loads and even rose has!

I think sergio fried rory. could you honestly see rory playing that bad playing with a motivated yank or westy for example..

Mysti, Rory double bogies the first, surely not even El Sulk had depressed him that much so soon ?

Not much commotion there. Only Bo van Pelt and Bradley showing some action.

Van Pelt showing that there's a low score out there: -5 after 14.

Poulter just now running out to the practice ground in a red and white ensemble with a red and white scarf.

Bo now 7 under. Hole in one @ 16th!

BLIMEY he could have sold that round for a few quid....

donald eagled 15- 5 under for his an all..

Had a quid on BVP for a top 5, and another quid on Luke for the win, combined -12 thru 31 today. Cheers guys.

NedB-H wrote:Had a quid on BVP for a top 5,

I also had BVP each way. If only.........

Hole #9 is making Tiger clumsy like a clown.

BBC went a bit manic then, Hazel Irvine talking as though she was off mike, pictures going backwards and forwards at high speed.

Leff wrote:Hole #9 is making Tiger clumsy like a clown.

Bo Van Pelt could sell that round for millions. 8 under!!!!!!

I'm never wrong wrote:BBC went a bit manic then, Hazel Irvine talking as though she was off mike, pictures going backwards and forwards at high speed.

I wish the winey bint could be off mike permanently.

Urgh - if our Hazel uses the word 'stellar' again i'm going to mute her. What's wrong with 'superb', 'outstanding', 'magnificent'...

Vijay in Azaleas. Tiger in a stream. Uh..

Any idea when CBS starts broadcasting live golf?
All I've seen so far is no-hopers.

Muted

kwinigolfer wrote:Any idea when CBS starts broadcasting live golf?
All I've seen so far is no-hopers.

In 2 minutes.

Gary Player - like to hear more from him.

at Bubba - want him to win though.

Phil looks very relaxed.

Hanson is looking around for the nearest toilet.

Sundays pin positions sheet incase no ones already posted.. http://bit.ly/Hs8jwn

It is a little disappointing that we are not getting to see much of Tiger so far.

Lairdy wrote:

EmmDee57 wrote:I'd follow Sandy Lyle if I was there.

any money on him this year EmmDee? 1000/1 I think he was.

One bookie had him at 2000/1.


Should have been 2 million/1. Utter cack as per usual.

poults for the win

McLaren wrote:It is a little disappointing that we are not getting to see much of Tiger so far.

Tiger and Vijay are the 15th. They are actually having a friendly chat walking toward the hole. Tiger is seen having a friendly conversation with Vijay's son. This is really unpleasant.

hanson has gone allready

what the heck has ousty done lol= omg albatrous

Oooooosty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHAT A SHOT!

Oh my God, double eagle for Oosy on the 2nd. This changes it all. He is -10 now!

He has a green shirt and look all ready for a jacket of the same colour.

WOW

Wow... that was a fantastic shot from King Louis, and what a time to play it!

It's like Schwartzel's chip in last year, total momentum swinger.

Leff,

A double eagle would be -4 on one hole, an albatross is only -3 on on par five.

mystiroakey wrote:hanson has gone allready

You having a laugh? He played a poor chip.

WOW from Oosty...

McLaren wrote:Leff,

A double eagle would be -4 on one hole, an albatross is only -3 on on par five.

Thanks, so I hear.

Great action-filled afternoon ahead.